1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of Chlorinated paraffins will rise first and then decline in the first half of 2023. On January 1, the average price of domestic Chlorinated paraffins 52 market was 5400 yuan/ton, and on June 30, the average price of domestic Chlorinated paraffins 52 market was 5283 yuan/ton. In the first half of the year, the price of Chlorinated paraffins fell 2.16%.

2、 Market analysis

According to the K column chart from January to June 2023, in the first half of the year, domestic Chlorinated paraffins rose and fell in the cycle. February saw a significant increase, with a maximum increase of 8.13%. April saw the largest decline, with a maximum decline of 3.49%.

In the first half of 2023, the domestic price of Chlorinated paraffins rose first and then fell. In the first quarter, the price of Chlorinated paraffins fluctuated and rose. The prices of raw material liquid wax and liquid chlorine have increased, and cost support has been strengthened. Under cost pressure, Chlorinated paraffins manufacturers raised prices. The market demand is stable, and the transaction focus has increased. In the second quarter, the price of Chlorinated paraffins fell sharply. The raw material prices have been lowered, resulting in insufficient cost support. Downstream demand is weak, procurement enthusiasm is poor, and market transactions are weak. As of June 30, the ex factory quotation of Chlorinated paraffins 52 in Anhui was about 5600 yuan/ton, and that of Chlorinated paraffins 52 in Shandong was about 5250 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts of Chlorinated paraffins from the business agency believe that the prices of raw liquid chlorine and liquid wax have continued to rise recently, cost support has been strengthened, and Chlorinated paraffins is running steadily and well. However, downstream procurement enthusiasm is average and transactions are relatively low. It is expected that the price of Chlorinated paraffins will rise steadily in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to the change of raw material price.

This week (July 3-7, 2023), a new round of prices for viscose staple fiber factories has been introduced, resulting in a decrease in prices. The new prices range from 12800 to 13200 yuan/ton, with some factories offering additional discounts and rebates, and downstream customers experiencing a new round of centralized order signing. The production cost has little change, the raw materials are maintained, the cost support is limited, the price center of raw material Dissolving pulp is stable, and the domestic market is basically stable; The price of imported Dissolving pulp was basically maintained. The demand for human cotton yarn has been delayed and weak, and prices have declined slightly. Due to the high temperature and high inventory, a few yarn factories are considering shutdown and vacation, and the focus of negotiations is gradually shifting downwards.

Viscose staple fiber price trend chart

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, new factory prices have been introduced this week (July 3-7, 2023), and the price center of viscose staple fibers has declined. As of July 7, the domestic factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fibers is 12960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 260 yuan/ton from last week’s price, a decrease of 1.97%.

Raw material market

Recently, the price center of raw material Dissolving pulp has weakened. Domestic Dissolving pulp: two manufacturers in Shandong and Hunan produce broad-leaved Dissolving pulp, and domestic Dissolving pulp is quoted at about 7100-7200 yuan/ton. Recently, the quotation of imported Dissolving pulp has remained stable, about 870 dollars/ton for broad-leaved Dissolving pulp and 880-890 dollars/ton for coniferous Dissolving pulp.

Downstream cotton yarn market

The demand for human cotton yarn has been delayed and weak, and prices have declined slightly. Due to the high temperature and high inventory, a few yarn factories are considering shutdown and vacation, and the focus of negotiations is gradually shifting downwards. As of July 7th, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first class) was 17300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to last week’s price. At present, it is difficult for the demand in the textile terminal market to significantly improve, and yarn enterprises are also difficult to have a strong position. They often adjust their negotiation space based on their own shipment situation.

Future Market Forecast

With the arrival of high temperatures in summer and the traditional off-season of textile production, the overall purchasing and sales atmosphere in the market is limited. With the introduction of a new round of prices in the market, short-term centralized order signing is the main focus, and the market will enter a wait-and-see adjustment period. Analysts from Business Society predict that the market for viscose staple fibers and rayon yarn will be weak and stable in the short term, with prices being mainly stable.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PP market fluctuated in June, with overall fluctuations in various wire drawing brands. As of June 30th, the mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7164.29 yuan/ton, with a+1.11% increase or decrease compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: On the upstream side, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market fell first and then rose in June, with a slight overall increase. In the first ten days, downstream buying was poor, and the price of propylene gradually fell to a low point. Downstream bargains entered the market, and the effect of enterprise destocking was significant. In the latter half of the year, procurement improved, while some propylene enterprises underwent temporary maintenance, resulting in a temporary decrease in market supply and a push up model for propylene. The current inventory in the propylene market is controllable, and demand changes are limited. It is expected to maintain a narrow consolidation operation in the short term.

Propylene prices rebounded after a drop, while international crude oil fluctuated frequently this month, with limited cost support for PP. In terms of industry load, the overall industry load remained between 70-80% this month, with construction approaching 79% at the end of the month, reaching an overall high level. The overall supply of goods remained stable. There is sufficient supply of goods on site. In terms of demand, it tends to be weak, with the main downstream plastic weaving production fluctuating from 40% to 50%. In terms of film materials, the operating rate of enterprises has increased to around 60% in the latter half of the year. Although there has been an increase, the overall position is not high, and the improvement of the stocking situation of terminal enterprises is limited, with procurement maintaining production as the main focus.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 30th, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has declined. The mainstream quoted price of domestic producers and traders for Z30S (fiber) is around 7137.50 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of -0.17% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of -17.17% compared to the same period last year. This month, the main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises of PP fiber material maintained a low horizontal load, with an overall operating rate of around 31%. The demand for fiber materials in the market is weak, and the digestion speed of non-woven fabric end products is average. Enterprises have low efforts to replenish fiber PP, resulting in narrow price fluctuations and adjustments. It is expected that in the short term, fiber materials may continue to undergo narrow adjustments due to supply-demand conflicts.

In terms of melt blown materials, the June melt blown PP market continued to be weak. As of June 30th, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society is about 7875 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the price has increased or decreased by -3.67%, with a year-on-year decrease of 17.97%. At present, there is little domestic news on health events, and local social news is powerless to drive the consumption of medical meltblown fabric materials. There is also no significant boost in overseas demand, with traders giving up profits and taking orders, resulting in excessive parking of melt blown material production lines. It is expected that the melt blown material market may maintain a weak consolidation market.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the rise in the polypropylene market in June was hindered. The raw material propylene market has stopped falling and rebounded, with frequent fluctuations in distant crude oil, and average support from the cost side for the market. The operating rate of terminal enterprises is poor, and the demand for goods tends to maintain production, resulting in weak demand release. The small number of market orders hinders the low level recovery of the market, and it is expected that the PP market may maintain a range consolidation market early next month.

According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic carbon black market prices were relatively strong at the end of the month. On June 30th, the domestic carbon black N220 was quoted at 9033 yuan/ton.

Cost: In terms of raw materials, the auction price of new orders in the main production area of high temperature Coal tar in China rose again as a whole near the end of the month, with the range of 330-460 yuan/ton. Affected by cost fluctuations, the operating sentiment of carbon black industry has risen. Up to now, the market price of Coal tar is 3950 yuan/ton. The price of coal tar pitch also rebounded this week, and the operating profit and loss of deep processing enterprises have been improved. In this case, the downstream receiving of Coal tar just needs support, the Coal tar market has improved, and the support for carbon black cost side has become stronger.

Supply and demand side: Most carbon black enterprises maintain normal operating levels, with little change in operating this week. Currently, the inventory of mainstream carbon black manufacturers in the market is generally low, and the overall inventory level of the carbon black industry is not high, resulting in a relatively balanced market supply and demand..

In terms of demand: The overall operating situation of downstream rubber conveyor belt enterprises is poor, and the demand for carbon black market is further decreasing. June is the traditional off-season for downstream tire sales, and the demand side may further weaken. The market is mostly in a wait-and-see state, and the bearish atmosphere is gradually deepening, and the transaction volume in the carbon black market is weak. At present, purchasing is mainly based on hard demand, and there is currently no obvious positive news in the market. From the demand side, the overall demand in the future is not very optimistic.

Overall, the cost side support has increased, inventory levels are not high, and there has been no significant improvement in the demand side. It is expected that the trend of carbon black will be stronger in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic methanol market first fell and then rose. From June 1st to 29th (as of 15:00 in the afternoon), the average price of the East China port in the domestic methanol market remained at 2161 yuan/ton, with a balanced price increase and decrease during the cycle, with a maximum amplitude of 8.02% and a year-on-year decrease of 28.52%.

At the beginning of the month, the domestic methanol market was weak and the support for methanol production costs was weakened. The Baofeng plant was restored, and the supply in mainland China increased. Additionally, the local formaldehyde load was reduced, resulting in a decrease in methanol demand. As prices decline, traders and downstream sentiment weaken accordingly.

In the first half of this month, the domestic methanol market continued to decline, with coal prices falling, and support for methanol production costs weakening. Traditional demand entered the off-season and demand was weak. At the same time, some methanol parking devices were restored, and new investment devices such as Xuzhou Longxingtai and Jiyang New Energy had production plans in the near future. Overall, the supply in the mainland market is still relatively sufficient.

In the second half of this month, the domestic methanol market was in a weak state of consolidation. With the arrival of high temperature weather, there were signs of stabilizing coal prices on the cost side, but there was no significant improvement in the demand side, and the methanol cost side remained relatively empty. At the same time, the supply continues to increase, inventory is expected to continue to increase, and market confidence is insufficient. Downstream and traders mainly purchase according to demand.

Towards the end of the month, the domestic methanol market has rebounded. The narrow upward trend in raw coal prices provides some support for methanol prices. At the same time, some downstream devices are operating and actively replenishing goods, driving some demand. At the same time, some major industrial enterprises are undergoing equipment maintenance, resulting in a gradual depletion of social inventory and a decrease in port inventory. Overall, there are many positive factors.

By the end of June 29, methanol futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange had risen. The main methanol futures contract 2309 opened at 2114 yuan/ton, with a maximum price of 2170 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 2114 yuan/ton. It closed at 2144 yuan/ton in the late trading session, an increase of 60 yuan/ton or 2.88% compared to the settlement on the previous trading day. The trading volume was 2134258 hands, the position was 1925785 hands, and the daily increase was 144852.

On the cost side, some coal mine production tasks have been completed and production has been suspended, and the overall coal supply has been tightened. Most coal mines in the Shaanxi region maintain normal production and overall supply is basically stable. Some coal mines have undergone centralized and continuous price reductions, and the transportation situation has slightly improved, while the price adjustment at the pit mouth has been relatively tightened. Coal prices have rebounded in a narrow range, but downstream demand has not significantly increased, terminal restocking willingness is not strong, and actual market trading volume is limited. The cost of methanol is relatively weak.

Demand side, downstream MTBE: Debao Road and Dongming Qianhai have plans to start construction recently, and MTBE demand may increase; Downstream acetic acid: Guangxi Huayi will resume full load, and the demand for acetic acid may increase; The demand for formaldehyde and dimethyl ether may not change significantly. The demand for methanol is mixed.

On the supply side, middling coal Yanchang, Inner Mongolia Dongri, Wangcang Hezhong Chemical, Shanxi and Henan each have a set of devices for maintenance; Shanxi Yueanda, Guangxi Huayi, Shenhua Mengxi, Anhui Linhuan, Hengxin High tech, and Shaanxi Weihua units have been restored. The overall loss is greater than the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is favorable and has a positive impact.

In terms of external trading, as of the close on June 28th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $289.00- $291.00 per ton, a decrease of $2 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market was 72.00-74.00 cents per gallon, down 1 cent per gallon; The FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 207.00-209.00 euros per ton, a decrease of 5 euros per ton.

In the future, the cost support is expected to be average in the short term, but the supply side is expected to show some positive results. Methanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic methanol market may continue to rise.

Domestic boric acid prices stopped falling and stabilized in June

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of boric acid slightly rebounded in June. As of June 28th, the average price of boric acid in the domestic market was 7417.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.09% compared to the beginning of the month. However, compared to the beginning of the year, the average market price was 8100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.43%.

Looking at the overall trend, the domestic boric acid market has stopped falling and stabilized. Boric acid, as a basic chemical raw material, is widely used in industries such as chemical production, glass, metallurgy, electronics, pharmaceuticals, etc. Boric acid has extensive applications in fields such as chemistry, metallurgy, glass, ceramics, electronics, and medicine. In chemistry, boric acid can be used as an acid catalyst, reducing agent, and buffer; In the glass and ceramic industry, boric acid can be used as a raw material for glass and ceramics; In the electronics industry, boric acid can be used as a dopant for semiconductor materials; In the pharmaceutical field, boric acid can be used as a raw material and buffer for drugs. The glass and ceramic industries are the main application fields of boric acid, occupying a considerable share of the boric acid market. At present, the downstream demand is average, while the supply is relatively loose, coupled with a large number of imported goods, leading to a downward trend in the price of boric acid in the early stage. After late May, the price began to hit the bottom and stop falling.

At present, the external quotation for imported goods is concentrated at 7100-8200 yuan/ton (the actual transaction price of different brands, specifications, and products is mainly negotiated).

Boric acid analysts from Business Society believe that the price of boric acid began to slightly recover in June, and it is expected that the short-term trend will remain unchanged, but the upward space is limited.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic ethanol market fluctuated at a low level in June. From June 1st to 27th, the average price of domestic ethanol producers dropped from 6587 yuan/ton to 6497 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.37% during the cycle and a year-on-year decrease of 13.17%.

At the beginning of the month, after the price fluctuations in May, there was no significant improvement in demand, and the ethanol market atmosphere continued to be weak. In mid month, due to weak supply and demand, the ethanol market continued to operate at a low level, with slight differences in different regions. The overall demand for downstream chemical products is still flat, with most production still based on orders and profits, and the main demand for ethanol is replenishment. In the latter part of the month, there was sufficient supply in some regions, and production enterprises continuously lowered their prices. The market atmosphere was affected by this and the market atmosphere was relatively low. The overall supply still exceeds the demand, and it is slightly adjusted based on cost prices.

On the cost side, corn prices have fluctuated and risen. Factors such as domestic high temperatures, malt substitution, and an increase in imports have led to weak demand, poor profits in deep processing and aquaculture. However, due to the sustained low demand at the grassroots level, the market supply has shrunk, and the spot price of corn has maintained a strong trend of volatility. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shangye Society, on June 27th, the benchmark price of Shangye Society corn was 2727.14 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.22% compared to the beginning of this month (2694.29 yuan/ton). The cost side of ethanol is a favorable factor.

On the supply side, as of the end of June, the ethanol market has been operating steadily with increasing supply in Northeast China. The operating load of the equipment is relatively high, and in June, the operating load in Northeast China continued to be at a high level. The factories of Hongzhan Laha (second line), Guotou Fukang, COFCO Zhaodong, and Henan underwent quarterly maintenance, and Shenglong started operating. The supply mainly continued to be at a high load. Negative impact on ethanol supply side.

On the demand side, downstream large factories mainly focus on stable procurement, while just in demand procurement is the main focus. The demand for fine chemical products is stable. The weather is gradually hot, the demand for Baijiu is gradually narrowing, and the short-term demand for ethanol is negative.

Future market forecast shows limited cost support and weak downstream demand. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic ethanol market will be sluggish in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 26th, the average price quoted by domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises was 3875.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged compared to last Monday (June 19th).

Recently (6.19-6.26), the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market has been operating steadily, with a price center maintained at around 3900 yuan/ton. Recently, the price of raw material sulfuric acid has been stable, and the market for raw material methanol has fluctuated narrowly. The cost support has been stable, and downstream buying is just needed to continue. The quotes from commodity holders are stable.

Upstream product: Upstream sulfuric acid. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market price temporarily stabilized on June 25th. On June 23rd, the reference price for sulfuric acid was 196.00, an increase of 7.69% compared to June 1st (182.00); Upstream methanol, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price for methanol on June 23 was 2091.67, a decrease of 3.24% compared to June 1 (2161.67).

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that the overall market atmosphere is still good, with transactions mainly based on demand. It is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market will remain stable in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the spot price of PVC carbide SG5 fluctuated this week. As of now, the average price of PVC in China this week is 5564 yuan/ton, which is the same as the average price on Monday.

2、 Market analysis

The price of PVC in the domestic Spot market fluctuated this week. At present, the trading atmosphere in the market is light, and downstream purchasing sentiment is not high. The market situation is not warm or hot, and actual transactions are cautious and more wait-and-see. As of now, the quotation range for PVC5 carbide materials in China is mostly around 5330-6170 yuan/ton.

In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures closed lower on June 23rd. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $69.16/barrel, a decrease of $0.35 or 0.5%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $73.85 per barrel, a decrease of $0.29 or 0.4%.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to data monitored by the Business Society, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region has temporarily stabilized this week. At present, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China is 2900 yuan/ton. Upstream orchid charcoal prices have stabilized at a low level, with average cost support. Downstream PVC market is weak, and demand for calcium carbide has weakened.

3、 Future Market Forecast

PVC analysts from Business Society believe that PVC spot prices have fluctuated this week. At present, the ex factory price of calcium carbide is temporarily stable. On June 23, international crude oil futures closed down, with weak cost support. At present, the demand for PVC spot goods in the market is weak, and downstream and traders are mostly cautious and watching, resulting in a light market situation. It is expected that the PVC market will temporarily stabilize its consolidation and operation in the short term, and closely monitor changes in the news.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic ABS market has rebounded in a narrow range, with spot prices stabilizing after a slight increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 19th, the average price of ABS sample products was 10400 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.24% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

On the supply side: Last week, the load of the ABS industry remained almost flat, with an increase in early enterprise maintenance and independent load reduction. The current industry operating rate is about 77%. The on-site spot supply is abundant, and the pressure on the supply side has slightly eased. The overall inventory continues to be consumed due to short supply and oversold, and supply side support for the spot market has rebounded.

In terms of raw materials, the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials has been average recently. The supply of raw material acrylonitrile is still loose, coupled with the continued weakening of demand and low consolidation of cost, it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will be weak and volatile in the short term; It is recommended to closely monitor the industry’s operating rate.

Last week, the domestic butadiene external market continued to decline, which had a certain drag on the domestic spot market. Despite the restart of Bora and the production of Sanjiang, the supply side news remains weak. As the price of butadiene drops to a low point, the profits in the industrial chain move downward, and downstream positions are filled with bargains, providing some bottom support to the market. However, the strength is limited, and the butadiene market is still mainly characterized by a stalemate and consolidation.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the recent decline in styrene market prices has led to a pullback. International oil prices have rebounded strongly, with good cost support. The styrene market is trading on dips and has a strong mentality. It is expected that the styrene market may rise mainly in the short term.

In terms of demand: Currently, downstream factories, including the main terminal home appliance industry, have average stocking enthusiasm, and the operating rate is generally at the off-season level. The manufacturer has a cautious wait-and-see attitude, but there are some low-priced short selling operations in the market, but overall demand improvement is limited.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the stalemate among the three upstream materials of ABS has been weak, providing poor support for the cost side of ABS. The construction of petrochemical plants has decreased compared to the beginning of the month, and the market inventory has been partially digested. However, the demand side support is limited, and the overall weak and rigid demand pattern is maintained. It is expected that the ABS market may continue this stalemate.