According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic BDO market is at a high level of consolidation. From August 28th to September 4th, the average price of domestic BDO increased from 11485 yuan/ton to 11642 yuan/ton, with a weekly price increase of 1.37%, a month on month increase of 4.22%, and a year-on-year increase of 14.01%. And the online sales of the factory are relatively high, supporting suppliers to continue to support the market. Although the main terminal spandex market has experienced a narrow upward trend, there has been no significant improvement in the start of construction, which temporarily provides limited support for the trend of raw materials.

On the supply side, the market supply has increased, and supply side support has weakened. There are currently no planned changes to other devices. The supply side of BDO is mixed.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The domestic calcium carbide market continues to be at a high level. With the increase in supply, the market supply and demand have eased, but in the short term, there is still a shortage of goods. In terms of methanol, the domestic methanol market has been experiencing high volatility recently. As of 15:00 on September 4th, the domestic methanol Taicang price is 2530 yuan/ton. Recently, the market for calcium carbide and methanol has continued to rise, and the cost of BDO has continued to be positive.

On the demand side, the load of the PBT industry has increased to slightly over 50%, with contract procurement still being the main focus and spot tracking average; The production of TPU in the polyurethane field has declined, while the production of PU slurry industry has remained stable. The short-term positive factors affecting the demand side of BDO.

In the future market forecast, there is still some support on the supply side, but the downstream end has limited ability to accept high prices. Contract orders are mainly followed up, while spot orders are generally followed up, or market trends may be suppressed. BDO analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic BDO market will mainly consolidate at a high level.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PP market rose in August, with various wire drawing brands fluctuating and rising. As of August 31st, the mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7685.71 yuan/ton, with a+3.16% increase or decrease compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: Upstream, PP raw materials in August, and propylene in Shandong have increased driven by crude oil costs. The increase in maintenance of PDH devices and the decrease in on-site supply have boosted market information, while also affecting the upward trend of propylene prices. At the end of the month, supply tightened and prices once again showed a broad upward trend. Overall, polypropylene has strong cost support.

The trend of raw materials in all directions is acceptable, and there is support for PP on the cost side. In terms of industry load, the overall industry load was around 79% at the end of August, with a lower position compared to the previous period of volatility. The overall supply of goods was stable, and the on-site supply of goods was sufficient. The changes in demand are not significant compared to the previous period, with downstream plastic weaving operations remaining flat at over 40%, and the operating rate of film and injection molding enterprises maintaining around 60%. The overall position is still good, and the stocking situation of terminal enterprises is orderly. The market performance is balanced, and it is expected that some enterprises may experience seasonal recovery in purchasing and restocking.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 31, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has increased. The mainstream quoted price of domestic producers and traders for Z30S (fiber) is around 7650 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of+2.68% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of -4.42% compared to the same period last year. During the month, the downstream non-woven fabric enterprises, the main force of PP fiber materials, maintained a low horizontal load, with an overall operating rate of around 32%. The demand for fiber materials in the market remains low, the digestion speed of non-woven end products is average, and the enterprise’s replenishment operation for fiber PP is average. It is expected that in the short term, fiber materials may maintain cost support and tend to strengthen the consolidation operation.

In terms of melt blown materials, this week’s melt blown PP market fluctuated. As of August 31st, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society is around 8100 yuan/ton, which is 0% higher than the average price level at the beginning of the month and 11.64% lower than the same period last year. At present, the domestic and international news of the health incident has basically subsided, and the consumption of medical meltblown fabric materials is weak. There is also no significant boost in domestic and foreign demand. The main support for the market is the cost side, and it is expected that the melt blown material market may maintain a volatile consolidation market.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market rose in August. The overall trend of upstream raw materials is strong, and the support from the cost side for the market is still acceptable. The construction of terminal enterprises continues to maintain the previous level, and the demand for goods is relatively high. It is expected that the PP market will enter the peak season and strengthen in the short term.

List of ethylene glycol prices

According to data from Business News Agency, as of August 31st, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.97% compared to 4141.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The prices in various regions are as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is 3900-4160 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4050 yuan/ton, while the mainstream manufacturers in Central China have a spot price range of 3900 yuan/ton for external execution; The spot price for mainstream manufacturers in North China is 4160 yuan/ton.

On August 30th, the CIF price of ethylene glycol in China was 464 US dollars/ton; The CIF Southeast Asia price is 481 US dollars per ton.

Ethylene glycol fundamentals

From the supply side, the operating rate of domestic ethylene glycol is still high, and some devices have restarted. Recently, several sets of long-term shutdown and planned maintenance devices have been restarted, and Xinjiang Zhongkun is about to be put into operation for testing. Currently, it is still in the stage of oversupply.

On the demand side: downstream polyester maintains high operating rates, with a polyester operating rate of over 90%; Terminal new orders followed up slightly month on month, with a slight increase compared to the previous month and still at a low level year-on-year. The operating load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is around 70%, while the operating load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang elastic looms is 70-80%, indicating an overall increase.

In terms of port inventory, as of August 31, the inventory of ethylene glycol at the East China main port was 1.1448 million tons. Recently, there has been a concentration of port arrivals, and there is a phenomenon of accumulated inventory in the data.

Ethylene glycol callback in August

The supply and demand fundamentals of ethylene glycol are still weak, especially with some coal production units experiencing restart, and production capacity is beginning to reflect in terms of production. There is an expectation of an increase in the social inventory of ethylene glycol. On the demand side, there is a positive trend month on month, but overall it is not as expected. The short-term fundamental trend is weak. The recent game point is whether the emotional benefits brought by cost factors can suppress the reality of weak fundamentals.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of August 30, 2023, the reference price of n-butanol in the Shandong region of China was 9666 yuan/ton. Compared with August 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 7916 yuan/ton), the price increased by 1750 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.11%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that since August (8.1-8.30), the domestic Shandong n-butanol market has shown an overall upward trend. In early August, the n-butanol market in Shandong Province showed a trend of first rising and then falling, with an overall market increase of 0.21%. At the beginning of the month, some domestic n-butanol plants were centrally shut down for maintenance, and the spot supply in the n-butanol field was reduced. The supply side was tight, supporting the upward trend of the n-butanol market. In addition, downstream demand for phased stocking also had a positive impact on the market. Therefore, with support from both supply and demand, the center of gravity of the n-butanol market steadily increased. On the 7th, the n-butanol market price was referenced at 8100 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.32% compared to the beginning of the month. Subsequently, the tight supply of n-butanol on the market gradually eased, and after the end of downstream stocking, the demand side also returned to calm. After weak supply and demand support, the n-butanol market quickly fell back to the beginning of the month.

In late August, some n-butanol units encountered parking again, and the on-site supply was once again reduced, reducing the pressure on the supply side. The n-butanol market once again saw a steady rise with the support of the supply side. Downstream demand was good, new orders for n-butanol were smoothly traded, and the trading atmosphere on the market was active. With the support of both sides, the n-butanol market saw a broad increase at the end of the month, with high-end market prices reaching nearly 10000 yuan. As of August 30th, the domestic market price of n-butanol in Shandong region is around 7900-8100 yuan/ton.

Aftermarket analysis of n-butanol

At present, the overall high level consolidation and operation of the n-butanol market, with a decent trading atmosphere on the market, is expected by the n-butanol data analyst of the Business Society. In the short term, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong region will mainly adjust and operate with large stability and small fluctuations, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to specific news changes on the supply and demand side.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic BDO market in August saw a unilateral upward trend. From August 1st to 29th, the average price of domestic BDO increased from 11042 yuan/ton to 11628 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 5.30% during the cycle and a year-on-year increase of 14.29%.

At the beginning of the month, some production enterprises underwent equipment maintenance, agent replacement, and load reduction, resulting in a decrease in the overall industry load and a certain positive supply side inventory. Factories and traders were reluctant to sell their spot goods in the market. Downstream industries maintain contract follow-up, limited and negotiated spot purchases, and limited gains.

In the first half of this month, the industry’s production capacity utilization rate is currently low, and the market’s spot supply is tight. Production enterprises are reluctant to sell, and online bidding is on the high side of the market. Downstream rigid demand procurement is the main focus, and under cost pressure, it tends to be cautious, suppressing market growth.

In mid month, due to the impact of device maintenance, the industry’s operating rate remained at a low level, and the mentality of being reluctant to sell spot goods continued. However, the downstream demand of the terminal is generally followed up, and there is resistance to high priced raw materials, leading to a stalemate in market trading and consolidation stage.

Towards the end of the month, although the early maintenance devices have been restarted one after another, the inventory pressure on the production enterprises is controllable, and the intention to support the market is strong, which helps to promote the bidding premium transaction. However, at the beginning of the new settlement cycle, the downstream buying of gas at the terminal is average, with contract procurement being the main focus, spot procurement being light, and the market’s focus consolidating.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: In August, the domestic calcium carbide market continued to be at a high level, and coal mine safety inspections boosted the rise of raw materials. Upstream blue charcoal showed a situation of easy to rise but difficult to fall, and the calcium carbide market continued to show regional adjustments, exacerbating the shortage of goods. In terms of methanol, the domestic methanol market experienced high volatility in August, with a monthly increase of 4.07%. Recently, the market for calcium carbide and methanol has continued to rise, and the cost of BDO has continued to be positive.

On the demand side, the PTMEG industry’s Blue Mountain Tunhe and Yanchang petroleum units continue to undergo maintenance, the Ningxia Xiaoxing chemical plant is restarted, and the Huaheng plant is put into operation and trial run, with little change in raw material digestion. The PBT industry has a load of less than 50%, with factory contract procurement being the main focus and spot tracking being average; The TPU production in the polyurethane field has increased, and the PU slurry industry is operating steadily, with a slight increase in raw material digestion. The PBAT industry’s load remains low. Short term bearish factors on the demand side of BDO.

In the future market forecast, there is still some support on the supply side, but the downstream end has limited ability to accept high prices. Contract orders are mainly followed up, while spot orders are generally followed up, or market trends may be suppressed. BDO analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic BDO market will mainly be sorted out.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate on August 1st was 1052 yuan/ton. On August 28th, the average factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 920 yuan/ton. This month, the price of ammonium sulfate decreased by 12.59%.

2、 Market analysis

This month, the high market price of ammonium sulfate has declined, and the price has dropped significantly. In early August, the ammonium sulfate market continued its previous trend, with prices rising slightly. The high price of urea remains a positive factor. The international market for ammonium sulfate is performing well, with strong support for export orders. Downstream and distributors are actively restocking. The bidding price of coking grade ammonium sulfate has increased, while the price of domestic grade ammonium sulfate has also increased. Starting from August 7th, the price of ammonium sulfate began to decline and continued to decline until the end of the month. The international market for ammonium sulfate has performed poorly, with a significant price decline, which has a bearish impact on the domestic market. Combined with the continuous increase in prices before, the price of ammonium sulfate has been at a high level, and downstream and dealers have a resistance towards high prices. The bidding price of ammonium sulfate has significantly decreased, and the focus of market transactions has declined. As of August 28th, the mainstream quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Hebei region is around 900 yuan/ton. The mainstream factory quotation for domestic ammonium sulfate in Shandong is around 900-940 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly fluctuations from May 29, 2023 to August 21, 2023, it can be seen that the rise and fall of domestic ammonium sulfate cycle are mixed. There was a significant decline in August, with the largest decline being -6.9% in the week ending August 14th.

The downstream compound fertilizer market has shown a positive trend this month, with prices operating on a stronger side. The prices of urea, phosphorus, and potassium, the raw materials for compound fertilizers, have increased, resulting in strong cost support. In addition, the company has sufficient waiting volume, and the focus of trading on the market has increased, resulting in a strong market in the short term.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to ammonium sulfate analysts from Business Society, the international market for ammonium sulfate has been continuously sluggish recently, and the domestic market has a strong wait-and-see mentality. Downstream procurement is just needed, and dealers should prioritize cautious operation. It is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will continue to weaken and decline in the short term.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic ABS market has been relatively strong, with spot prices rising. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 25th, the average price of ABS sample products was 10725 yuan/ton, a+1.66% increase or decrease from the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: The ABS industry has recently experienced a high load, with a total operating rate of over 94%, which has increased compared to the previous period. The on-site supply of goods is abundant. Inventory continues to rise, overall at over 170000 tons. The supply side has weak support for the spot market.

In terms of raw materials, the overall performance of the upstream three materials of ABS has been relatively good recently. The market situation of raw material acrylonitrile has remained stable with little movement. Although there has been a pressure on the market due to the increase in initial equipment starts, the price of propylene has been strong this week. In addition, the willingness of enterprises to rise after the price drop has increased, and the price of acrylonitrile may have a narrow upward trend.

This week, butadiene prices were at a high level. Driven by the rise in external market prices and the trend of downstream synthetic rubber futures, and supported by high quotations from production enterprises, it is difficult to find low-cost sources of goods in the market. However, the market has abundant spot resources, and short-term trading follow-up is relatively cautious.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the market price of styrene has continued to rise recently. Although downstream demand continued to be weak in the early stage this week, pure benzene remained strong in terms of cost. At the same time, the industry load has decreased, and the shutdown and maintenance devices have diverted some pressure from the supply side. Confidence in the market has increased, and it is expected that the short-term styrene spot market may maintain a strong consolidation operation.

In terms of demand: Currently, downstream factories, including the main terminal home appliance industry, have average enthusiasm for stocking. In addition, the downstream operating rate is still at a low level due to factors such as season and power restrictions. After the price increase of ABS, the manufacturer’s acceptance declined, and the procurement operation was cautious, resulting in overall poor trading performance.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the upstream three materials of ABS have been steadily consolidated and have shown strong support for the cost side of ABS. The start of petrochemical plants saw a narrow increase compared to the previous period, and market inventory continued to accumulate. On the demand side, support is weak, and the overall pattern of weak and rigid demand is maintained. It is expected that the ABS market may enter a stalemate.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 21, the average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises was 277750.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.89% compared to last Tuesday (August 15) and 11.53% compared to the same period last year.

Recently, the domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide market has continued to operate weakly. Recently, the lithium ore market has been operating in a weak state, with a sluggish lithium carbonate market and insufficient support for the lithium hydroxide market. Downstream procurement has a cautious attitude, and negotiations on high-end prices in the market have been weak. Transactions are mainly on demand, and the overall atmosphere is average.

Upstream lithium carbonate: Recently, the prices of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate have decreased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on August 21, the reference price for lithium carbonate industrial grade was 222000.00, a decrease of 18.98% compared to August 1 (274000.00).

Business Society Lithium Hydroxide Analysts believe that currently, enterprise shipments are mainly based on long-term orders, and demand follow-up is still insufficient. The market atmosphere is flat, and it is expected that in the short term, the domestic lithium hydroxide market may be mainly weak, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price trend of cryolite in Henan region is stable. On August 20th, the average market price in Henan region was 7850 yuan/ton, which is the same as the average price of 7850 yuan/ton on August 14th, with a year-on-year increase of 2.28%.

quotations analysis

This week, the price of cryolite is mainly stable, and the manufacturer’s quotation remains stable. Upstream construction of cryolite remains low, raw material prices have risen, and production cost pressure on cryolite has increased. Manufacturers’ inventory has remained rational, and their quotations have been firm. Downstream follow-up on high priced cryolite is weak, and cryolite manufacturers are actively shipping, while the market is watching and operating. As of August 21st, the factory quotation for cryolite in Shandong region is 7000-8600 yuan/ton; The factory quotation for cryolite in Henan region is between 7200-8900 yuan/ton.

The upstream fluorite market has risen, with an average market price of 3093.75 yuan/ton as of August 20, an increase of 1.23% compared to the price of 3056.25 yuan/ton as of August 14. The current situation of the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and the operating rate of enterprises remains low. At the same time, due to safety and environmental requirements, it is difficult to improve the operation of fluorite mines. The restrictions on operation have led to a tight inventory of fluorite enterprises, a tight market spot, and an upward trend in fluorite prices.

The downstream aluminum market continued to fluctuate, with aluminum prices around 18533.33 yuan/ton on August 20th, an increase of 0.78% compared to the price of 18390.00 yuan/ton on August 14th. In the off-season of downstream consumption, the operating rate is low, market demand is limited, the atmosphere of on-site trading is average, the situation of inventory removal is not ideal, and the aluminum price market is operating in a consolidation manner, with limited support for cryolite.

Future Market Forecast

Cryolite enterprises have no inventory pressure and maintain active shipments. Downstream parties follow up on demand. The market trading atmosphere is weak, with low starting prices for raw materials and rising prices, which is good for supporting cryolite. It is expected that the cryolite market will continue to rise in the future, and specific attention will be paid to changes in manufacturer inventory in the future.

The nitrile rubber market slightly increased this week (8.11-8.19). According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 19th, the price of nitrile rubber was 14025 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.72% from last Friday’s 13925 yuan/ton. The price of raw material butadiene continues to rise slightly, while the price of acrylonitrile slightly decreases, and the cost of nitrile rubber fluctuates slightly; Downstream inquiries are often made on demand, resulting in relatively flat market transactions.

This week (8.11-8.19). The price of raw material butadiene continues to rise slightly, while the price of acrylonitrile slightly decreases, and the cost of nitrile rubber fluctuates slightly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 19th, the price of butadiene was 7613 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.83% from last Friday’s 7551 yuan/ton; As of August 19th, the price of acrylonitrile decreased by 1.04% from last Friday’s 8400 yuan/ton at 8312 yuan/ton.

As of August 19th, the construction of domestic nitrile rubber plants has been temporarily stable.

The downstream rubber product industry, such as rubber hoses and automotive parts, mainly has small inquiries and small transactions in the market. Overall, they continue to purchase on demand, and the on-site trading atmosphere is average; The supply of domestic nitrile rubber in the market is gradually increasing, but currently the inventory level is not high, and many merchants have maintained a stable and moderate adjustment.

Future forecast: Business Society nitrile analysts believe that the current supply of nitrile rubber is gradually increasing, and the downstream just needs to support the transaction atmosphere is average. It is expected that the nitrile rubber market will consolidate in a narrow range in the short term.