According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the asphalt market varies among regions. From December 4th to 11th, the price of asphalt in Shandong region increased from 3454 yuan/ton to 3477 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.68%, a month on month decrease of 5.35%, and a year-on-year increase of 0.07%. International crude oil has been continuously declining, with weakened cost support. Some businesses are mainly taking a wait-and-see approach, and market demand support is limited. Prices may maintain a stable, moderate, and weak trend.

On the supply side, the comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has decreased compared to the previous month, which has had a positive impact on the supply side.

On the cost side, macro level, global economic data remains weak, and the market generally expects to maintain the current interest rate policy unchanged, possibly starting to lower interest rates in March next year. On the supply and demand side, the increase in finished oil inventories in the United States last week exceeded expectations, especially the surge in gasoline inventories, which exacerbated the bearish sentiment in the market towards fuel demand. In addition, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) have not tightened their production cuts as expected by the market. The expectation of loose supply has put pressure on oil prices.

On the demand side, the main demand is in various regions, with small transactions being the main focus. Cold air is coming, and the cooling, rainy and snowy weather in northern regions is increasing, which may hinder the demand for essential goods, and market demand is expected to gradually weaken. The weather in the southern region has been favorable recently, and the market demand has been supported. The demand for asphalt in the market is mixed.

As of the close of December 11th, the petroleum asphalt futures market has risen. The main asphalt contract 2402 opened at 3709 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 3719 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 3676 yuan/ton. It closed at 3690 yuan/ton in the last trading day, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous settlement, an increase of 0.24%. The trading volume was 162571 lots, and the position was 296728 lots, with a daily increase of 435.

In the future market forecast, although the supply and demand are relatively balanced in the short term, the decline in crude oil has weakened sentiment. Coupled with the expectation of a decline in future demand, asphalt analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic asphalt market will maintain a stable, moderate, and weak operation.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam on December 4th was 13162 yuan/ton, and on December 8th, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 13112 yuan/ton. The price of caprolactam fell by 0.38% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of caprolactam has fallen this week. The price of raw material pure benzene has been lowered, weakening cost support. Downstream demand has decreased, and procurement is more cautious. The caprolactam unit is gradually recovering, with an increase in supply. At present, the market is mainly bearish, and the market for caprolactam continues to weaken. As of December 8th, the settlement price for Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam this week is 13400 yuan/ton. It is a liquid premium product and will be accepted and self picked up in June.

This week, the price of raw material pure benzene has dropped. On December 4th, the price of pure benzene was 6867 yuan/ton. On Friday (December 8th), the price of pure benzene was 6703 yuan/ton, a 4.58% decrease from last week. This week, the price of Sinopec’s pure benzene was 6800 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei regions fell by 400 yuan/ton simultaneously).

This week, the downstream domestic PA6 market has been operating weakly, with some spot prices adjusted. According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of December 8th, the domestic benchmark price of PA6 mixture was 14350 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.78% from the average price level at the beginning of the month.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society Caprolactam Analysts believe that the caprolactam market has recently undergone a slight adjustment. The raw material pure benzene market has started to recover, and the downstream PA6 market is not good, resulting in reduced demand. Partial caprolactam units have been restored, and supply side support has weakened. It is expected that the price of caprolactam will narrow down in the short term.

According to price monitoring data from Business Society, as of December 5, 2023, the reference price for domestic n-propanol market was 7883 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as December 1, 2023. Compared with November 1, 2023 (reference price for n-propanol was 7766 yuan/ton), the price increased by 117 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.50%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that in the early December, the overall domestic n-propanol market remained stable and organized, with little fluctuation in the market. The supply and demand information of n-propanol was relatively calm, and the transmission between supply and demand was basically normal. Some n-propanol operators and suppliers adjusted prices narrowly based on their own inventory and shipment situation, which had a relatively small impact on the overall trend of the current n-propanol market. As of December 5th, The domestic market price of n-propanol in Shandong region is around 7100-7850 yuan/ton. The normal operation of the n-propanol plant in the Nanjing area, and the overall stable operation of the n-propanol market, with a reference price of around 8500-9000 yuan/ton for the n-propanol market. Dealers in different regions still have reservations about prices, and the difficulty in monitoring prices may lead to differences in specific negotiation situations. Each region also has differences, and actual negotiations are the main focus.

Prediction of future market trends of n-propanol

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the domestic n-propanol market is mild, with many downstream demand purchase orders for n-propanol as the main source. The overall supply and demand transmission in the market is relatively stable. The n-propanol data analyst of Business Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will mostly operate with large stability and small fluctuations, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

This week, the lead market (11.27-12.4) fluctuated downward, with the average price in the domestic market at 16210 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week and 15770 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, a decrease of 2.71%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar indicates the magnitude of the rise and fall, and the overall market trend has been weak recently. The market has been declining for three consecutive months, and the lead ingot market has seen more declines than gains in recent times.

In the futures market, the recent trend of Shanghai lead has basically returned to the fundamental influencing factors, and the overall decline of Shanghai lead in the off-season of the market. LME’s lead inventory has risen to a high of 140000 tons, putting significant pressure on the market. In terms of supply and demand, enterprises that underwent maintenance in early December will resume work, and the lead ingot market is expected to improve. In terms of demand, downstream enthusiasm is relatively strong in the off-season atmosphere, and the battery industry is mainly actively destocking. The demand for automotive batteries is stable, but the overall operation of electric bicycle batteries is weak, and the overall demand is still weak. Overall, the lead ingot market currently has loose supply expectations, weak demand, and is expected to operate weakly overall due to the impact of low demand season and high inventory.

On December 3rd, the non-ferrous index was at 1088 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 29.26% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 79.24% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 48th week of 2023 (11.27-12.1), there were a total of 7 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month in the list of commodity prices, of which 2 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 8.7% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase were silver (5.59%), nickel (5.21%), and gold (2.13%). There are a total of 12 products with a month on month decline, and 1 product with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored products in this sector; The top three products with a decline were cobalt (-8.48%), praseodymium neodymium oxide (-4.55%), and praseodymium neodymium alloy (-3.32%). The average increase and decrease this week is -0.38%.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Business Society, as of December 1st, the average price of high-quality power type lithium iron phosphate was 51900 yuan/ton. This week, the price of lithium iron phosphate was weak, with a 4.6% decrease compared to the same period last week and an 18.4% decrease compared to the same period last month.

This week, the price of lithium iron phosphate has experienced a broad decline, with prices continuing to operate at a low level, dropping 4.6% in a week. Downstream demand is insufficient, inventory is running at a high level, and manufacturers are operating under pressure. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and overall market consumption is slow. Downstream demand replenishment is the main trend. The lithium battery market has a pessimistic attitude and a bearish atmosphere.

The price of upstream lithium carbonate remains low, with a main decline in price. Supply and demand pressure still exists, a decrease of 22.49% compared to the average price of 159200 yuan/ton on November 1st. On November 30th, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 134000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21.08% compared to the average price of 169800 yuan/ton on November 1st. The willingness to purchase lithium carbonate in the market is not high, and the transaction atmosphere is difficult to improve.

Analysts from Shengyishe Lithium Iron Phosphate believe that the upstream lithium carbonate market has limited upward potential and insufficient upward momentum. The downstream automotive market demand is weak, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. The overall market of lithium iron phosphate is operating under pressure, maintaining a stable, moderate, and weak trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of November 30th, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 21600.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.77% from the beginning of the month’s price of 21766.67 yuan/ton, and an increase of 16.76% compared to the same period last year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of November 30th, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 2766.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.60% from the beginning of the month’s price of 27833.33 yuan/ton, and an increase of 9.21% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Entering November, due to the sustained decline in raw material prices, some manufacturers have slightly lowered the market price of R22, driving a slight decline in the market price of R22 at the beginning of the month. The cost of raw materials has fluctuated and decreased, and downstream wait-and-see attitudes continue to increase. Manufacturers have a strong attitude towards price support, and the overall domestic R22 market price remains stable.

In November, the price of hydrofluoric acid slightly declined, and the cost of raw materials slightly decreased. Manufacturers subsequently slightly lowered the factory price of R134a, driving the domestic price of R134a to slightly decline after entering November. With the overall weakness and stabilization of hydrofluoric acid prices, raw material prices remain relatively high. Downstream trading entities have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the overall trading volume in the R134a market is light. Manufacturers have a persistent attitude of price support, and the market supply and demand game continues to intensify. The overall domestic R134a market prices remain stable and move forward.

In terms of raw materials, as we enter November, the overall price of domestic hydrofluoric acid remains stable and weak. Overall, the price of hydrofluoric acid remains relatively high, and the sustained high cost of raw materials will provide strong support for the bottom price of refrigerants in the future.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to refrigerant analysts from Business Society, the fluctuation of raw material costs is stabilizing, and downstream wait-and-see attitudes are strong. The refrigerant market trading is relatively light, and companies are supported by low inventory to maintain a price boosting mentality. The market supply and demand game has intensified, with a long short game. In the short term, the overall market prices of domestic refrigerants R22 and R134a are in a dilemma. It is expected that the prices of domestic refrigerants R22 and R134a will continue to operate at the current level with slight consolidation in November.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream domestic urea market prices fluctuated and increased in November. Urea prices increased from 2530.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2586.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.24%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.55% at the end of the month.

On November 28th, the urea commodity index was 120.31, an increase of 0.31 points from yesterday, a decrease of 21.02% from the highest point in the cycle of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 116.38% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream domestic urea market prices fluctuated in November.

Cost side: The upstream market has significantly increased

The price of liquefied natural gas increased significantly in November, from 5140.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5686.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 10.62%, and a year-on-year increase of 37.81% at the end of the month. The price of Yangquan anthracite (washed fast) has slightly decreased, dropping from 1290 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1110 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 180 yuan/ton. The price of liquid ammonia first rose and then fell, rising from 3916.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 4006.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.30%. The highest point was 4333.33 yuan/ton on November 17th, with a maximum increase of 10.64%. At the end of the month, prices decreased by 2.20% year-on-year. Overall, there are ups and downs in the upstream urea market, with average cost support.

On the demand side, the price of melamine has slightly increased

From the demand side, agricultural demand has weakened, industrial demand is average, and urea exports are currently not favorable. Agricultural sporadic fertilization. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants is average, and their enthusiasm for purchasing urea is normal. Board and melamine enterprises generally start construction, with a focus on procurement for immediate needs. The price of melamine slightly increased in November, from 7175.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7325.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.09%. From a supply perspective, maintenance companies have started to resume production and repair, with a daily urea production of around 180000 tons, indicating sufficient supply.

Looking ahead, the urea market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline in mid to early December. The prices of anthracite and liquefied natural gas fluctuate, with average cost support. The daily production of urea is about 180000 tons, with sufficient supply. The demand for agriculture has weakened, with industrial demand being the main focus. In the future, urea may experience a slight fluctuation and decline.

On November 28, 2023, the cash and tax inclusive prices of magnesium ingots (99.9%, non acid washed, simple packaging) from various major production areas in China remained stable, with an overall range of 20600-20900 yuan/ton. Negotiations on actual orders were the main focus.

The specific price ranges for each region are as follows:

The ex factory foreign exchange including tax in Fugu area is 20600-20700 yuan/ton; Current exchange rate in Taiyuan area is 20700-20800 yuan/ton; The current exchange rate in Wenxi area is 20800-20900 yuan/ton; The current exchange rate in Ningxia is 20600-20700 yuan/ton.

Magnesium ingots are native magnesium ingots in accordance with the national standard (GB/T3499-2011); Non acid washing, no wooden pallets, and non payment acceptance price, actual order negotiation is the main focus.

Overview of the trend of magnesium metal in November

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price in the domestic market on the 28th was 20900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.26% compared to the average market price of 21166.67 yuan/ton in early November (11.1); Compared to the beginning of the year (1.1), the average market price was 21700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.69%.

At the beginning of the month, magnesium market transactions improved and prices slightly increased. However, there has not been a significant improvement in the overall demand side performance, and the sustained upward momentum of magnesium prices is insufficient. After the increase, magnesium prices show relatively stable fluctuations.

The news of some magnesium factories resuming production in the main production areas in the middle of the month is fermenting, and the operators have insufficient information about the future market; Downstream demand is weak, and upstream raw material costs are supporting a decline. Under multiple negative factors, magnesium prices are under pressure and have fallen to below 21000 yuan/ton, with prices dropping to 20400 yuan/ton at their lowest point.

At the end of the month, there was an increase in low price inquiries in the market, and downstream users were significantly lowering prices. However, magnesium factories on the supply side showed a willingness to stop the decline and stabilize prices. Most manufacturers followed the market and adjusted their quotations according to their own situation.

In terms of supply and demand

This month, the supply and demand sides are in a stalemate game state, probing each other, and the market is flooded with news of some magnesium factories resuming production in the Fugu area. There is a possibility of further increase in production, and the confidence of manufacturers has been undermined. Downstream users have significantly lowered prices, and downstream demand for magnesium ingots has not followed up enough. Magnesium prices lack support for further price increases, and in the market pattern of oversupply, magnesium prices are mostly operating under pressure.

The recent significant appreciation of the RMB exchange rate has had a certain impact on the export of magnesium ingots. And this round of RMB/USD exchange rate recovery may not be over yet, which may affect the demand for stocking up before Christmas abroad.

Ferrosilicon experienced a cumulative decline of 1.83% in November

On November 28th, the quotation for ferrosilicon in Ningxia was between 6700-6900 yuan/ton, with an average market price of 6728.57 yuan/ton. The silicon iron market operated weakly in November, with prices continuously decreasing at the end of the month, steel bidding prices dropping, and downstream demand performing average. In the short term, the silicon iron market fluctuated weakly. The price of orchid charcoal remained stable in November, and currently the price of small Shenmu orchid charcoal is around 1180-1280 yuan/ton. The support for magnesium ingot prices on the raw material side has weakened.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, magnesium ingot prices were weak in November, and factories were more willing to raise prices at the end of the month due to cost support. But currently, the overall market lacks favorable factors, with weak demand and strong downstream wait-and-see sentiment. The appreciation of the RMB is not conducive to exports. The news of Fugu factory resuming production has led to an unstable industry mentality and bearish outlook on the future market. It is expected that the short-term magnesium ingot market will weaken, but the downward space will also be limited.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of November 24th, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 21600.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.77% from the beginning of the month’s price of 21766.67 yuan/ton, and an increase of 16.76% compared to the same period last year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of November 24th, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 27666.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.60% from the beginning of the month’s price of 27833.33 yuan/ton, and an increase of 9.21% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the overall domestic price of trichloromethane remained stable and advanced, while the price of hydrofluoric acid slightly declined, falling by 0.6%. The cost of raw materials fluctuated and the market supply and demand remained stable. The overall domestic R22 market price remained stable and advanced this week.

This week, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid slightly declined, with a decrease of 0.6% within the week. Overall, the upstream raw material cost of R134a is still relatively high, and downstream purchases and sales are relatively cautious. The overall domestic price of R134a remained stable and moving forward this week.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid has slightly declined. Overall, the price of R134a is still at a relatively high level, and the sustained high cost of raw materials will provide some support for the future refrigerant market prices.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to refrigerant analysts from Business Society, the cost of raw materials has fluctuated slightly, and the market supply and demand are relatively stable. In the short term, the prices of domestic R22 and R134a will continue to remain at the current level with slight consolidation.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the average domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8217 yuan/ton on November 20th, and 8125 yuan/ton on November 24th, with a 1.11% decrease in quotation during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the average domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 9262 yuan/ton on November 20th, and 9250 yuan/ton on November 24th, with a 0.13% decrease in quotation during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the average domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8625 yuan/ton on November 20th, and 8550 yuan/ton on November 24th. During this period, the quotation decreased by 0.87%.

Polyethylene prices have experienced a narrow decline this week. Cost side: On November 23rd, international crude oil futures prices fell, and the OPEC+meeting of oil producing countries was postponed. Market expectations for a reduction in production were almost released, putting pressure on oil prices and insufficient support for polyethylene on the cost side. Supply side: The supply of polyethylene is still sufficient. Downstream agricultural film and pipe demand has weakened, market demand has weakened, with rigid demand as the main focus and limited new orders; Traders have a strong willingness to offer discounts for shipping.

On November 24th, the opening price of the polyethylene l2401 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 7881 yuan, and the closing price was 7934 yuan, up 56 yuan. The highest price was 7943 yuan, and the lowest was 7858 yuan, up 0.71%. This week, the futures market has declined, dragging down the spot market.

Oil prices are under pressure, suppressing the polyethylene market. The enthusiasm for terminal procurement has decreased, and it is difficult to achieve significant improvement in demand; The poor fundamentals of polyethylene are expected to be dominated by weak oscillations.