According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market fluctuated and rose from November 18 to 25, 2024. On November 18th, the benchmark price of toluene was 5660 yuan/ton, and on November 25th, the benchmark price of toluene was 5720 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.06% during the cycle. This week, the trend of the toluene market has slightly increased, with an increase in demand for disproportionation and gasoline in Shandong region, supporting the price increase of local refineries. The futures market has strengthened, boosting the mentality of the toluene market. Recently, there have been fewer goods arriving at the port, and the port inventory is running at a low level. Overall, the toluene market has slightly rebounded this week, and market sentiment is still positive.

Cost wise: As of November 21st, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.10 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $74.23 per barrel. This week, international oil prices fluctuated and rose. As of the 19th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $69.39 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $73.31 per barrel. During this cycle, crude oil prices have fluctuated widely, with little overall change. On the one hand, OPEC’s production reduction plan of 2.2 million barrels per day has been extended until the end of December, which is good news for international oil prices. On the other hand, weak demand in China, India, and other regions has led to continued concerns in the market about demand, which is bearish for the oil market. The recent geopolitical situation remains one of the important factors affecting the crude oil market.

Supply side: Sinopec toluene quotation situation: Currently, the enterprise is operating normally, the production of the equipment is stable, the products are mostly self used, and the production and sales are stable. As of November 25th, East China Company quoted 5800 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5700 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5700-5750 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5750 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and demand support is weak

On November 25th, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with the current execution price of 7300 yuan/ton. This price is being implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other facilities are operating stably, with normal sales, and the price is unchanged from November 18th. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of the closing of the Asian xylene market on November 22, the closing prices were 786-788 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 811-813 US dollars/ton CFR China, a decrease of 16 US dollars/ton compared to the same period last week.

Market forecast: The recent crude oil market trend is volatile, with mixed negative and positive factors, and insufficient guidance for the toluene market. On the supply side, the port is expected to accumulate inventory in the future, but the supply is unfortunately empty. Although there are some positive factors on the demand side, the support is limited. Overall, the supply and demand sides are mixed with negative and positive factors, and it is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate in the short term due to the supply-demand game.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on November 22nd, the domestic cyclohexanone market price reference was 8525 yuan/ton. On November 17th, the domestic cyclohexanone market price reference was 8400 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 125 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.49%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that this week (11.17-11.22), the domestic cyclohexanone market has experienced a slight recovery. At the beginning of the week, the cyclohexanone market was in a state of consolidation and operation, with little fluctuation in the market. As the weekend approaches, the focus of negotiations in the cyclohexanone market has begun a slight upward adjustment. Cyclohexanone factories and suppliers in Shandong, East China, and Inner Mongolia have raised the shipment price of cyclohexanone by about 100 yuan/ton. As of November 22, the reference market price for cyclohexanone in Shandong region is around 8550-8700 yuan/ton, in East China region it is around 8800-8900 yuan/ton, and in South China region it is around 8900 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply cost: Recently, the market situation for pure benzene, the raw material for cyclohexanone, has shown an upward trend. The cost side has gradually strengthened the support for cyclohexanone, and the cyclohexanone market has risen along with the trend.

In terms of supply and demand: Currently, the supply side of cyclohexanone remains stable, and downstream users of cyclohexanone mainly continue to purchase on demand, with little overall change in the demand side.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the cyclohexanone market is quiet and mild, and the mentality of the industry is normal. The transmission between supply and demand is still acceptable. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly adjust its range slightly, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, since November 11th, the domestic adipic acid market has experienced a weak decline, with a drop of over 2%. On November 11th, the average market price of adipic acid was 8600 yuan/ton. On November 19th, the average market price of adipic acid was 8400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.33%.

The supply of adipic acid is loose, and the market is weak and declining

Since November 11th, the domestic adipic acid market has continued to decline weakly. The main reason is that the upstream raw material pure benzene market has improved, the cyclohexanone market is weak and stable, the cost support effect is limited, and the terminal demand for adipic acid procurement is average. The main reason for the loose supply of adipic acid is the combination of multiple negative factors. The adipic acid market continues to bottom out and operate weakly. The mainstream market price is 8400-8600 yuan/ton, and the market is mainly weak and stable.

An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the rise of the raw material pure benzene market is supported by positive factors, and the adipic acid market is expected to rebound, with a promising upward trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 18th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 8555 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.33% compared to the beginning of this month (8670 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors:

Supply side: Lianyungang major factory releases maintenance news, market atmosphere is tense. In late October, Satellite Chemical released the news of a shutdown at the end of October, with a production capacity of 400000 tons per year. In addition, Shangnong Ruiheng’s 400000 tons per year epoxy propane plant maintained low load operation. At the same time, after the start-up of Shandong Jinling, the load increased slowly, and there was no inventory while limited sales. The market supply was tight, and the price of epoxy propane rose sharply at the beginning of the month.

Raw material side: The prices of raw materials propylene and liquid chlorine have fluctuated. Although the manufacturer has sufficient inventory, downstream demand is weak, and the company reduces profits by selling at low prices, resulting in a decrease in actual trading volume. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 15th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6770.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.22% compared to the beginning of this month (6785.75 yuan/ton).

Downstream demand side: The downstream demand for polyether polyols is relatively short, with weak sustainability, and export orders are still acceptable. According to customs data statistics from January to September 2024 and market research in October, the total export volume of polyether polyols in 2024 is significantly higher than that in 2023. Overall, downstream new orders are mainly for urgent procurement, with smooth factory scheduling and no pressure on shipments.

Market forecast:

An epoxy propane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that although there is some support for raw material prices, the downstream has a strong wait-and-see attitude, mainly focusing on on-demand procurement, and the transmission of supply and demand is not smooth, resulting in mixed ups and downs of epoxy propane. It is expected that the short-term epoxy propane market will be mainly volatile, and more attention should be paid to market information guidance.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China remained stable this week. As of November 15th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 11975.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.51% compared to the beginning of this month (11350.00 yuan/ton).

Raw material side: The prices of raw materials such as sulfuric acid and fluorite have increased. The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight. According to the monitoring system of Business Society, the price trend of domestic fluorite has risen this week. As of the weekend, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3668.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.73% compared to the beginning of the week price of 3606.25 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.84%.

Demand side: The downstream refrigerant market has seen an upward trend, with continuous destocking throughout the year. Fluorine chemical companies within quota control have strong confidence in maintaining stable prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, prices in the foreign trade market are gradually increasing, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. Some models of devices are expected to undergo maintenance or shutdown. Overall, the market’s consumption of raw materials is still limited. Affected by this, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid remains high and stable.

Market forecast: In the near future, the supply of hydrofluoric acid will be tight, and some models of equipment are expected to undergo maintenance or shutdown. The market price of raw materials has risen, and downstream procurement is mainly based on demand. We adopt a wait-and-see and cautious attitude towards high priced raw material procurement. It is expected that the price of hydrofluoric acid will remain stable in the later period.

This week, due to the increase in production capacity and fluctuations in raw material prices, the supply and demand pattern of the acrylic acid market may remain relatively stable. As of November 12th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6850.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.18% compared to the beginning of this month (6837.50 yuan/ton).

1、 Market supply and demand situation

Supply side:

Recently, some enterprises have resumed work and supplemented local supply, which has eased the tight supply situation in some areas. However, due to the rise in acrylic acid prices, the production costs of some manufacturers have increased, which has had a certain impact on market supply. Nevertheless, the overall supply side remains stable, providing sufficient support for the market.

Demand side:

The demand for acrylic acid in downstream industries has maintained stable growth. With the increasing demand for chemical raw materials such as acrylic acid in downstream industries such as coatings, adhesives, textiles, plastics, etc. However, due to price increases, some downstream companies may adopt a wait-and-see attitude and replenish as needed, rather than stockpiling in large quantities.

2、 Fluctuations in raw material prices

The fluctuation of propylene prices directly affects the production cost of acrylic acid. Despite the recent decrease in propylene prices, the previous high prices may still have a lagging impact on the production cost of acrylic acid. As of November 12th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6790.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.39% compared to the beginning of this month (6818.00 yuan/ton)

3、 Future prospects

Under the favorable guidance of the combination of supply and demand and cost, the price of acrylic acid in the market is expected to continue to operate steadily. However, it is also important to note the following risk factors:

Fluctuations in raw material prices: Further fluctuations in propylene prices may have an impact on the production costs and prices of acrylic acid.

Changes in downstream demand: If the growth of downstream demand slows down or falls back, it will put pressure on the price of acrylic acid market.

Changes in policy environment: Changes in domestic and international policies may also have an impact on the acrylic acid market.

In summary, despite the decrease in the price of raw material propylene, the market price of acrylic acid still shows a strong trend of operation. This is mainly due to the tight supply and demand pattern in the market, the impact of raw material costs, and the combined effect of market atmosphere and investor mentality. The future market price of acrylic acid will continue to be influenced and constrained by various factors, and investors and downstream enterprises need to closely monitor market dynamics and price changes in order to adjust investment strategies and procurement plans in a timely manner.

The phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and fell in November

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 8th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 6950 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 0.89% compared to the price of 7012.50 yuan/ton on November 1st. The production of phthalic anhydride equipment is stable at a high level, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is sufficient, resulting in significant downward pressure on phthalic anhydride prices; The price of ortho benzene has fallen, the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride has decreased, the price of industrial naphthalene has fluctuated and fallen, and the cost support of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has weakened. The oversupply has led to a decrease in costs, and the overall price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen.

Supply side: Adequate supply of goods

In November, the operating load of domestic phthalic anhydride plants increased, and about 70% of phthalic anhydride manufacturers started production. The supply of phthalic anhydride from manufacturers remained stable, and the supply of phthalic anhydride was sufficient.

The cost of raw material ortho benzene is temporarily stable

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 8th, the price of ortho benzene was 6900 yuan/ton, which was temporarily stable compared to the price of ortho benzene on November 1st at 6900 yuan/ton, but decreased by 200 yuan/ton or 2.82% compared to the price of ortho benzene on October 1st at 7100 yuan/ton. In November, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride stabilized, and the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride temporarily stabilized, reducing the downward pressure on ortho phthalic anhydride.

Demand side: The DOP market has fluctuated and fallen this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 8th, the DOP price was 9238.75 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 1.51% compared to the DOP price of 9101.25 yuan/ton on November 1st. The demand for plasticizer DOP has increased, and the price of plasticizer DOP has fluctuated and risen. The operating rate of downstream plasticizer enterprises has increased, and the demand for phthalic anhydride from plasticizer manufacturers has risen. The support for phthalic anhydride demand still exists, and the downward pressure on phthalic anhydride has weakened.

Future forecast

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of cost, the price of ortho xylene is temporarily stable, while the cost of phthalic anhydride is stabilizing; In terms of demand, DOP manufacturers have high operating loads, and downstream support for phthalic anhydride still exists. Overall, costs are temporarily stable, demand is stable, and it is expected that the market for phthalic anhydride will fluctuate and stabilize in the future.

The acetone market saw a narrow upward trend in October. According to the analysis system of Business Society, the national acetone market reported an average of 5865 yuan/ton on October 1st, rising to 6005 yuan/ton on October 31st, an increase of 2.39%. Looking at the acetone market in East China, it reported an average of 5680 yuan/ton on October 1st, rising to 5780 yuan/ton on October 31st, an increase of 3.35%.

In the first half of the month, the concentration of port cargo increased, and the mentality of traders was positive, which was boosted. The offer was pushed up, but there was no intention to lower it. Downstream sporadic terminal factories made purchases, and the trading atmosphere improved. In the second half of the month, port inventory continued to decline, and the supply of goods was mainly concentrated in the hands of a few traders. Traders had a high upward sentiment, and the average price at the end of the month exceeded 6000 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply, as of the end of the month, the inventory at Jiangyin Port was 20500 tons, including 18000 tons in Huaxi and 2500 tons in Hengyang.

In terms of equipment: Jilin Petrochemical’s 150000 tons/year phenol ketone unit will be shut down for maintenance starting from March 4th, and is expected to undergo maintenance for about a year; Jiangsu Ruiheng 650000 tons/year phenol ketone plant will shut down from October 9th to 14th; Changchun Chemical’s 480000 tons/year phenol ketone plant will be shut down for maintenance on October 10th, with an estimated 45 days.

From the demand side, the top two downstream industries have relatively stable production, with bisphenol A production at 60% and acetone cyanohydrin MMA production at 50%. The overall production of bisphenol A and MMA downstream is stable, with limited export orders for isopropanol and domestic facilities maintaining a level close to 50%.

It is expected to remain stable and rise in November. Upstream, the external environment is weak, and the cost support is weak. On the supply side, Sinopec Mitsui will shut down for maintenance in mid to late November. Changchun Chemical Plant is expected to resume operation in mid November, and Dongying New Plant is expected to have goods for export in November. The expected import volume is between 32000 and 35000 tons, and Business Society expects the market to steadily advance in November. The overall monthly average price may be higher than that in October, and the market price in East China is around 5700-6150 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of light soda ash remained stable this week. On October 31st, the average market price of soda ash was 1584 yuan/ton, and on October 28th, the soda ash price was 1584 yuan/ton. The price remained stable during the week, with a decrease of 1.86% compared to the beginning of the month.

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the soda ash market remained stable this week. On the supply side, the utilization rate of soda ash production capacity has been reduced, and the market supply of goods has slightly decreased. However, in terms of demand, downstream follow-up is still weak, and the consumption of soda ash is not obvious. On site trading is weak, and soda ash enterprises have accumulated inventory. The soda ash market remained weak and watchful during the week.

As of October 31st, the reference price for the soda ash market in East China is around 1420-1600 yuan/ton for light soda ash; The reference price for the soda ash market in Central China is around 1370-1600 yuan/ton for the mainstream price of light soda ash.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the downstream glass market continues to rise. From October 28th to 31st, the price of glass increased from 15.75 yuan/square meter to 15.95 yuan/square meter, an increase of 1.27%. The downstream demand in the glass market is good, with smooth shipments from manufacturers and significant destocking in the market. Glass prices are rising steadily, and the market is running strongly this week.

Future forecast: Currently, the utilization rate of domestic soda ash production capacity continues to be high, spot alkali factory inventory is sufficient, enterprise sales are under pressure, downstream glass prices are relatively strong, but the boost to soda ash market demand is limited. Under the supply-demand game, it is expected that soda ash will continue to be weakly consolidated in the short term, and specific attention should be paid to downstream demand follow-up.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PP market situation remained stagnant and consolidated at the end of October, with prices of various brand products fluctuating. As of October 29th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic manufacturers and traders is around 7592.86 yuan/ton, and the price level has basically returned to the beginning of the month.

Price trend

In terms of raw materials:

In terms of international crude oil, the current geopolitical situation is showing a tense trend, while some consumption has slightly improved, to some extent boosting the market. But on October 28th, international crude oil futures fell sharply, so the market turned weak and came under pressure. At the same time, the contraction of propylene supply is favorable for the market, but with the gradual caution in chasing high consumption, there will be a slowdown in the increase at the end of the month accompanied by a narrow correction. The domestic supply of methanol has recovered in the early stage, but there is a lack of strong support on the supply and demand side, and prices are running at a stalemate. Previously, the price of propane was relatively stable due to internal low and external high pulling each other. Overall, at the end of October, PP raw materials experienced more declines and less increases, with average support on the cost side.

Supply side:

At the end of October, the load level of domestic PP enterprises was reduced due to the implementation of some enterprise equipment maintenance plans. The maintenance of production lines in the latter half of the year is concentrated in the southern region of China, with an overall industry load of around 76.5%. At present, the inventory of two barrels of PP oil in China is stable at around 765000 tons, which has decreased compared to mid month. But the supply is still at a sufficient level. Overall, the supply side provides sufficient support for PP spot prices.

In terms of demand:

At the end of October, there was a certain increase in demand for PP, and the load on end enterprises has risen. The consumption of woven bags such as fertilizers, cement, and rice continues to increase, and the warehousing of plastic weaving enterprises has generally decreased, with an increase in willingness to build warehouses. On the other hand, due to the cooling weather, downstream consumption of PP non-woven fabrics has also rebounded, which has to some extent boosted the demand for fiber PP materials. The demand side has seen a narrow increase in support for PP spot goods.

Future forecast

At the end of October, the price of PP in the domestic Chinese market remained stagnant and consolidated. Fundamentally speaking, the comprehensive support of upstream raw materials for PP is average, while the demand side is expected to heat up in the short term due to the increase in e-commerce consumption. However, the previous increase has to some extent suppressed domestic trading, coupled with the weakened impact of loose funding policies and the negative impact of industry expansion in the fourth quarter. In the short term, it is expected that PP prices will continue to operate in a consolidation manner.