1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the bulk list of Business Society, the price of bromine decreased in December. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of bromine was 25300 yuan/ton. On December 27th, the average market price of bromine was 24800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.98% and a year-on-year decrease of 44.64%. On December 26th, the bromine commodity index was 87.02, a decrease of 0.35 points from yesterday, a decrease of 64.51% from the highest point in the cycle of 245.18 points (2021-10-27), and an increase of 47.69% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29th, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

Bromine prices have weakened and declined this month. The mainstream market price in Shandong region is currently around 24500-25000 yuan/ton. In mid to early December, the operation was temporarily stable, and the supply side has been affected by cooling recently, resulting in a decrease in seawater bromine production. However, manufacturers have sufficient inventory. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries are still mainly purchasing on demand recently, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. At the end of December, the price of bromine decreased. Although the production of bromine has recently decreased due to weather conditions, the inventory of enterprises is relatively sufficient. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine have recently made moderate purchases.

Regarding sulfur: The overall price of sulfur increased in December. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 1060 yuan/ton. On December 27th, the average market price was 1106.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 4.04% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.86%. The operation of the sulfur refinery unit is normal, the market supply of goods is stable, the demand for terminal winter storage is slowing down, and downstream procurement is becoming stable. Market trading is mainly based on demand, and the refinery is actively shipping.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of bromine has recently declined overall this month and is currently maintaining a consolidation trend. Bromine production in seawater is gradually decreasing as the temperature decreases. However, manufacturers have sufficient inventory, and downstream flame retardants and intermediates industry support is average. The market is mainly cautious in procurement, and it is expected that the short-term price of bromine may consolidate the operating market, depending on downstream market demand.

Aluminum prices increased by 4.51% in mid to late December

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market on December 26, 2023 was 19216.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.51% compared to the aluminum price of 18386.67 yuan/ton on December 11.

In the long term, the current price is in a sideways range after a high level decline. Since May, it has been fluctuating below 19000 yuan/ton, and by the end of August, it has exceeded 19000 yuan/ton. In September, aluminum prices first fell and then rose. In October, the center of gravity of aluminum prices fell back to around 19000 yuan/ton and fluctuated. In November, aluminum prices were weak and began to recover after mid December, returning to the front line of 19000 yuan/ton.

The recent increase in aluminum prices is due to

1. Clear inventory reduction and low social inventory levels

After the start of destocking in the second half of July, inventory remained relatively low. As of December 25th, the mainstream social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in China was 414000 tons, with 149000 tons of inventory removed compared to November 30th. Based on year-on-year data, it is at a low level in the same period of nearly five years.

2. Strong cost support for alumina

The explosion at the fuel depot in the capital of Guinea has raised concerns in the market about the supply of bauxite. It is reported that Chinese alumina companies are highly dependent on Guinea’s ore, with a total of 91.104 million tons of bauxite imported from Guinea from January to November, accounting for 70.2% of the total import volume. In addition, domestically, due to the heavy pollution weather in the north, the Shandong alumina plant has been shut down for ten days. The supervision and management of mining in Shanxi region is relatively strict, and the mines in Sanmenxia area of Henan province have not yet resumed production, resulting in a shortage of ore supply in Shanxi and Henan provinces. The price of alumina is firm.

Future market forecast

The positive cost side combined with the elimination of explicit inventory is expected to have a high probability of strong aluminum price fluctuations in the short term.

Overview of ethylene oxide prices in December

In December, the price of ethylene oxide decreased. According to data from Business Society, as of December 25th, the average price of ethylene oxide in the domestic market was 6400 yuan/ton; From a regional perspective, the epoxy ethane market in East China is priced at 6400 yuan/ton externally; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the South China market is 6500 yuan/ton; The listed price of epoxy ethane in North China is 6400 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the central China market is 6400 yuan/ton.

Overview of the ethylene oxide industry chain

The main downstream polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer is affected by poor terminal demand, and the demand has remained weak and stable recently with little change in operating load. The demand for ethylene oxide is relatively stable, and the short-term price support is average.

Raw material end

The price of raw material ethylene has begun to show a weak market consolidation, and the cost of ethylene oxide is generally supported. As of December 22nd, the estimated CFR China price for ethylene in the port is around $850-870 per ton.

The price of ethylene oxide may remain weakly stable in December

The demand for downstream products of ethylene oxide remains stable, and recently, ethylene oxide has been operating steadily. However, as profits expand towards negative values, there is an expectation of a decrease in the operating rate of ethylene oxide, and the downward space gradually narrows. It is expected that the price of ethylene oxide will remain weak and stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 22, the benchmark price of hexafluoropropylene in China is 37300.00 yuan/ton.

2、 Price influencing factors:

Raw material side: The domestic fluorite market has slightly declined this week. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of December 22, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3543.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.53% from the beginning of the week’s price of 3562.5 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 4.62%.

On the demand side: Downstream fluororubber procurement demand is poor, market transaction volume has decreased, and many are in a wait-and-see attitude.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s hexafluoropropylene analyst believes that downstream procurement willingness is weak, market shipments are low, and capacity utilization is low. It is expected to maintain stable operation next week.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of cryolite in Henan remained stable in mid December. On December 20th, the average market price in Henan was 7700 yuan/ton, which was the same as the average price of 7700 yuan/ton on December 11th, a decrease of 0.32% compared to the beginning of the month.

In recent times, the ice crystal market has remained stable, with upstream product prices falling and ice crystal costs decreasing. However, raw material prices are still at a relatively high level, with ice crystal enterprises mainly raising prices and downstream parties following up on demand. The market trading atmosphere is weak, and the market supply and demand are in a game, resulting in a stalemate in the ice crystal market. As of December 20th, the ex factory quotation for cryolite in Shandong region is 7000-8600 yuan/ton; The ex factory quotation for cryolite in Henan region is between 7000 and 8700 yuan/ton.

The upstream fluorite market is weak and downward, with an average market price of 3550 yuan/ton on December 20th, a decrease of 0.70% compared to the price of 3575 yuan/ton on December 11th. The tight exploitation of upstream mines and the shortage of raw materials have limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. In addition, some manufacturers in the north have been affected by low temperature, rain, and snow weather, resulting in limited production. However, towards the end of the year, some small factories have engaged in low-priced inventory clearance, and on-site prices have slightly declined, weakening support for cryolite.

Market forecast: Upstream spot supply is tight, costs for ice crystal enterprises still exist, and many manufacturers maintain low load operation. Due to the impact of demand, there is a strong downward trend in ice crystal prices, and manufacturers are cautious. It is expected that the ice crystal market will be weak and consolidate in the later stage. In the future, attention will be paid to upstream price changes and downstream follow-up.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of December 19, 2023, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference was 13960 yuan/ton. Compared with December 1 (organic silicon DMC reference was 14320 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.51%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that from December to present, the overall market situation of domestic organic silicon DMC has shown a weak downward trend. In early December, the overall organic silicon DMC market saw a slight bearish decline. Downstream demand is not boosting well, and the atmosphere in the organic silicon DMC market is weak. The overall market situation is stable and declining, with slight looseness in actual transactions. In mid December, the decline in the organic silicon DMC market deepened, and the downstream of organic silicon DMC was in the off-season of consumption. Market demand remained weak, and the atmosphere of on-site bidding gradually rose. The overall transaction price approached a low level, and the price difference between high and low prices on the market gradually narrowed. As of December 19th, the domestic market price of organic silicon DMC is around 13800-14200 yuan/ton.

Prediction of the future trend of organic silicon DMC market

At present, the overall trading atmosphere of the domestic organic silicon DMC market is average. After the market gradually declines, some factories have improved their new orders, and the overall organic silicon DMC market is expected to stabilize. However, as the end of the year approaches, whether downstream stocking can be effectively opened is still a key factor affecting the market trend. Therefore, the organic silicon DMC data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the game between supply and demand in the domestic organic silicon DMC market is still significant, The market situation is mainly subject to narrow adjustments, and more attention needs to be paid to changes in supply and demand news.

Recent price trends of hydrochloric acid

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price remained stable this week, with an average market price of 112.50 yuan/ton. The weekend price fell by 35.34% year-on-year. On December 18th, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 29.61, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 78.53% from the highest point in the cycle of 137.89 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 64.68% from the lowest point of 17.98 points on September 5th, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

Weakened upstream support, average downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices have remained stable this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory is average.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market has recently experienced a significant decline, with weakened cost support. The downstream market price of polyaluminum chloride has slightly increased, with the market price rising from 1766.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1772.50 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 0.35%, and a year-on-year decrease of 12.58% over the weekend. The downstream ammonium chloride market has experienced a significant decline. The market price dropped from 727.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 702.50 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 3.44%, and the weekend price fell by 35.10% year-on-year.

Future Market Forecast

In late December, the market price of hydrochloric acid may fluctuate and fall mainly. The upstream liquid chlorine market has experienced a significant decline, with insufficient cost support. The downstream ammonium chloride market has also experienced a significant decline, and downstream purchasing willingness has weakened. Analysts from Business Society believe that the hydrochloric acid market has been experiencing a slight fluctuation and decline in recent times.

1、 Price trend

This Saturday, the market price of fluoropropylene will maintain stable operation. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 15th, there was no fluctuation in the domestic price of hexafluoropropylene, with a quotation of 36500 yuan/ton to 38700 yuan/ton, and the price remained stable compared to Monday.

2、 Price influencing factors:

Raw material side: The domestic fluorite price trend remained stable but declined this week. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of December 15th, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3562.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.35% from the beginning of the week price of 3675 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s hexafluoropropylene analyst believes that downstream demand is flat, with rigid procurement being the main focus. Due to poor demand transmission and low capacity utilization, the market is expected to maintain stable operation in the future.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the prices of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to decline this week. On December 14th, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 102400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.91% compared to the average price of 110000 yuan/ton on December 10th. On December 14th, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 112600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.7% compared to the average price of 119400 yuan/ton on December 10th.

By observing market changes, it can be seen that lithium carbonate has maintained a weak downward trend this week, with prices continuing to decline, while lithium carbonate futures prices have fallen and turned up again on the 13th. In terms of supply, most lithium salt factories in the market still rely on long-term cooperative shipments. With the continuous decline in prices, a few lithium salt enterprises with smaller production capacity have stopped production for maintenance due to losses, reduced OEM volume, and other factors. However, domestic lithium salt enterprises with a relatively large scale are currently maintaining a stable production state and have no maintenance plans in the short term. According to data statistics, the domestic production of lithium carbonate in November was 43093 tons, a month on month increase of 7% and a year-on-year increase of 18%.

In terms of demand, due to downstream battery cell companies gradually cutting orders and reducing quantities of positive electrode materials, coupled with the continuous decline in lithium carbonate spot prices, the overall purchase volume of downstream positive electrode materials has significantly decreased, with few zero order transactions, and the pace of long-term cooperative pickup has gradually slowed down. This has led to significant pressure on some salt companies to ship, and the market has poor expectations for future demand, resulting in a downward trend in the overall market quotation and transaction focus.

The price of lithium hydroxide is showing a downward trend. Due to the continuous decline in the upstream industrial grade lithium carbonate market, the price of lithium pyroxene concentrate in the upstream is weak, and the cost side continues to decline. The mentality of the industry is insufficient, and the enthusiasm of downstream inquiries is average. The focus of negotiations in the lithium hydroxide market is weak, and the market trading atmosphere is light.

The downstream price of lithium iron phosphate is declining, with insufficient downstream demand and high inventory levels. Manufacturers are operating under pressure, and overall market consumption is slow. A pessimistic attitude is evident. Downstream replenishment is mainly based on demand, with main supply to contracted customers and overcapacity. The lithium battery market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.

In terms of futures, the trading of lithium carbonate futures ended on December 13th, with a rapid reversal at the end of the trading day, and the limit up was reached from the moment of decline. On December 14th, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures continued its upward trend. On December 14th, the opening price of the LC2407 main contract was 104600 yuan/ton, with the highest price of 105450 yuan/ton and the latest price of 102550 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 8.58%. The transaction volume was 888900 lots and the position was 161651 lots.

According to analysts from Shengyishe Lithium Carbonate, the current lithium carbonate futures market has significant fluctuations and price reversals, but its impact on the overall spot market is relatively limited. However, the fundamentals of excess supply and demand in the market remain unchanged, and coupled with the difficulty of increasing demand from downstream cathode material enterprises, it is expected that the spot price of lithium carbonate will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of December 12, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 1034 yuan/ton. Compared with December 1, 2023 (reference price of phosphate ore is 1024 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.90%. Compared with November 1, 2023 (reference price of phosphate ore is 1024 yuan/ton), the price increased by 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.98%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in the first half of December (12.1-12.12), the overall domestic phosphate ore market showed a slight downward trend. At the beginning of the month, the domestic phosphate ore market remained stable and consolidated, with a quiet trading atmosphere in phosphate ore yards. In some areas, the ore supply remained tight, and the downstream terminal market of phosphate ore was generally stocked, with limited support from the demand side for phosphate ore. On December 7th, some mining companies in certain regions lowered the price of phosphate ore by about 10-30 yuan/ton, reducing the overall price difference between high and low in phosphate ore yards. As of December 12th, the domestic price of 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1020-1080 yuan/ton. The specific price may vary depending on factors such as the original ore specifications and powder to block ratio, and the specific price needs to be negotiated based on actual orders.

Prediction of future market for phosphate ore

At present, the overall atmosphere of the phosphate ore market is still good, and the mentality of phosphate ore holders is normal. Some mining companies are waiting for new orders to land next year. The phosphate ore data analyst from Business Society predicts that in the short term, the phosphate ore market will mainly operate steadily with small fluctuations, and more attention needs to be paid to changes in supply and demand news.