1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of bromine has slightly increased this week. At the beginning of the week, the price of bromine was 24200 yuan/ton. On October 26th, the price of bromine was 24300 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.41%, a year-on-year decrease of 51.2%. On October 25th, the bromine commodity index was 85.26, an increase of 0.35 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 65.23% from the cycle’s highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27), and a 44.70% increase from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29th, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

Bromine prices have risen this week, with mainstream quotes in the Shandong market of around 24000-25500 yuan/ton, indicating a slight upward trend in market prices. The supply side has been relatively stable recently. Bromine companies are reluctant to sell and are cautious in shipping. The downstream flame retardants and intermediate industries are still mainly purchasing on demand in the near future, and the price of tetrabromobisphenol A has increased, providing support for the price of bromine.

In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have risen, with an average market price of 926.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. On October 26th, the average market price was 930 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.36% and a year-on-year decrease of 31.11%. The price of raw material sulfur has slightly increased this week.

It is predicted that there will be a slight increase in the price of bromine in the near future, with upstream sulfur prices operating well, stable supply of bromine production in the near future, and slightly better demand in the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine. However, the overall wait-and-see sentiment is still dominant. It is expected that the short-term consolidation of bromine prices will depend on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price data

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 23, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 7969.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.73% compared to October 16 at 8109.00 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha is around 7850-8000 yuan/ton.

As of October 23, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined straight-run naphtha was 7899.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.74% compared to October 16 at 8039.00 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight-run naphtha was around 7750-7950 yuan/ton.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Recently, the market for refined naphtha has declined, and the gasoline and diesel markets have entered the off-season. The restructuring lacks substantial benefits, and a small amount of demand for ethylene cracking has been released. The overall demand for naphtha terminals is weak, with sluggish trading and refineries reducing prices for shipments.

Upstream: The international crude oil market has been fluctuating recently. On a macro level, the Federal Reserve hinted that interest rate hikes may be suspended in November, easing demand concerns. On the supply side, the market’s focus is on the conflict between Palestine and Israel. The Islamic world’s resistance to Israel has escalated, and Iran’s foreign minister has called for an oil embargo on Israel, which has led to geopolitical turmoil and increased the risk premium for crude oil. In addition, the United States’ agreement to lift sanctions exemptions for Venezuela for six months has not quelled supply side tensions.

Downstream: According to the monitoring of Business Society, the price of toluene has significantly decreased, with a price of 7130 yuan/ton on October 23, a decrease of 8.24% compared to 7770 yuan/ton on October 16; The price of mixed xylene has significantly decreased, with a price of 7510 yuan/ton on October 23, a decrease of 5.42% compared to 7940 yuan/ton on October 16. The price trend of PX is temporarily stable, and as of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of xylene is 9100 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Energy analysts from Business Society believe that the international crude oil market is volatile, and the gasoline and diesel markets have entered the off-season. There is no significant positive trend in the local refining naphtha terminal, and market trading is cautious. It is expected that the local refining naphtha market will slightly decline in the near future.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8217 yuan/ton on October 16, and the average price on October 20 was 8180 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation decreased by 0.45%.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426H) was 9425 yuan/ton on October 16, and the average price on October 20 was 9307 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation decreased by 1.25%.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) was 8800 yuan/ton on October 16th, and the average price on October 20th was 8725 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation decreased by 0.85%.

Polyethylene prices continued to decline this week. The international crude oil fluctuates strongly, providing some bottom support for the polyethylene market. The shutdown and maintenance of enterprises have decreased, and the supply of polyethylene is expected to increase. The demand for agricultural film is in peak season, and the market procurement is mainly based on hard demand, and the transaction is still acceptable. The demand for packaging film during the E-commerce Festival is expected to be positive. In order to facilitate transactions, merchants often sell at reduced prices, with polyethylene prices mainly falling.

On October 20th, polyethylene l2401 rose 0.32% to close at 7954..

On the cost side, there is some support for polyethylene, and agricultural film is in the peak demand season, but overall demand is weak compared to the same period last year. In order to facilitate transactions, merchants are often actively offering profits and shipping. It is expected that polyethylene will be mainly adjusted in a narrow range.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of October 17th, the price of PET water bottle grade has been weak, with a narrow downward trend. The current average price is 7160.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.69% compared to the same period last week. The market supply and demand are balanced, and the mainstream price is currently around 7200 yuan/ton.

This week, the domestic PET price was weak, with a decrease of 0.69% compared to the same period last week. Currently, the focus of negotiations is relatively low, with the mainstream price around 7200 yuan/ton. Downstream restocking is on demand, and the purchasing atmosphere is average. Manufacturers mainly offer discounts and take orders, while upstream costs lack support.

Rubber and Plastic Commodity Index: On October 16th, the rubber and plastic index stood at 683 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 35.57% from the cycle’s highest point of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and an increase of 29.36% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

PET analysts from Business Society believe that the PET market is expected to operate in a narrow and weak range in the short term, with prices slightly decreasing and maintaining around 7200 yuan/ton.

1、 Price data

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 16th, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 8109.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.93% from October 6th at 8269.00 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha is around 7900-8200 yuan/ton.

As of October 16th, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined straight-run naphtha was 8039.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.83% compared to October 6th at 8189.00 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight-run naphtha was around 7800-8100 yuan/ton.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Recently, the market for refined naphtha has been fluctuating and declining. Terminal restructuring is just needed to release, and a small amount of demand for ethylene cracking is released. However, merchants mainly consume inventory. During the National Day holiday, international crude oil has significantly declined, and the post holiday crude oil market volatility has intensified the wait-and-see sentiment in the domestic naphtha market. The market is just in need of trading, and operations are cautious.

Upstream: The international crude oil market has been fluctuating recently. Affected by geopolitical turmoil, supply concerns have intensified. On the macro level, the resilience of US economic data has raised expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, and the negative sentiment still exists. On the supply side, the market’s focus is on the conflict between Palestine and Israel. Israel and Palestine are not oil producing areas, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has not yet affected the actual supply of crude oil. Concerns have slightly eased. In the short term, the situation on the mainland is volatile, and oil prices may intensify volatility, with an increase in amplitude.

Downstream: According to monitoring by Business Society, the price of toluene has significantly decreased, with a price of 7770 yuan/ton on October 16th, a decrease of 5.36% compared to 8210 yuan/ton on October 6th; The price of mixed xylene has significantly decreased, with a price of 7940 yuan/ton on October 16th, a decrease of 6.48% compared to 8490 yuan/ton on October 6th. The trend of PX has declined, with a factory price of 9100 yuan/ton on October 16th, a decrease of 4.21% compared to the price of 9500 yuan/ton on October 6th.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Energy analysts from Business Society believe that the international crude oil market is volatile, and there is no significant positive news for the local refining naphtha terminal. Market trading is cautious, with demand being the main focus. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and it is expected that the local refining naphtha market will be mainly weak in the near future.

Aluminum fluoride prices have risen this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 13th, the domestic quotation for aluminum fluoride was 11100 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.30% compared to the price of aluminum fluoride on October 8th, which was 10850 yuan/ton; The price of aluminum fluoride has increased by 9.36% compared to 10150 yuan/ton on October 1st. The prices of raw materials such as fluorite and hydrofluoric acid have fluctuated and increased, resulting in higher costs. This week, the price of aluminum fluoride has risen.

Raw material prices have risen this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 13th, the price of fluorite was 3768.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.34% compared to October 8th, when the price of fluorite was 3718.75 yuan/ton; The price of fluorite increased by 6.16% compared to 3550 yuan/ton on October 1st. As of October 13th, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 11500 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.44% compared to 11450 yuan/ton on October 8th; The price of hydrofluoric acid increased by 8.66% compared to 10583.33 yuan/ton on October 1st. Affected by safety accidents in fluorite mines, the supply of fluorite ore is tight, the price of fluorite is rising, and the raw materials for hydrofluoric acid are insufficient. In addition, downstream customers are actively purchasing, leading to an increase in the bidding prices of large downstream hydrofluoric acid factories. In terms of commencement: due to limited supply of raw materials, the production of hydrofluoric acid enterprises has decreased, and the supply of hydrofluoric acid is insufficient. The prices of raw materials such as fluorite and hydrofluoric acid have increased, resulting in rising costs. The support for the future price increase of aluminum fluoride has increased.

Market Overview and Forecast

Analysts from the fluoride aluminum industry at the Business Society believe that the prices of raw materials such as hydrofluoric acid and fluorite have fluctuated and increased, leading to increased cost support for fluoride aluminum; The supply of fluorite is tight, and there is a shortage of raw materials for aluminum fluoride. The operating load of aluminum fluoride enterprises has decreased, and the supply of aluminum fluoride has decreased. In the future, with rising costs and reduced supply, the support for the rise of aluminum fluoride is increasing, and it is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will fluctuate and rise in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the spot price of styrene in Shandong rose first and then fell in September. At the beginning of the month, the spot price of styrene in Shandong was 8746.67 yuan/ton, while at the end of the month, the spot price of styrene in Shandong was 9183.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.99%. The price has decreased by 2.48% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

The market price of styrene rose first and then fell in September. From the above figure, it can be seen that the price of styrene has been mainly increasing since July, and the increase in September was greater than the decrease. The reason for the increase is that international oil prices have risen, the pure benzene market has followed suit, and cost support is good. The inventory of styrene ports in East China has remained low. As the Double Festival holiday approaches, downstream companies are actively stocking up, and market transactions are positive, resulting in a higher styrene market. The main reason for the decline is the volatility and consolidation of the pure benzene market, with average cost support. Currently, downstream demand is mainly maintained, production and sales profits are reduced, spot transactions are poor, and there is an expectation of accumulation of styrene, leading to a decline in the market.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene rose first and then fell in September, with a rapid increase in prices in the middle and early stages, and a gradual decline in prices in the middle and late stages. On September 1st, the price was 7808 yuan/ton; On September 27th, the price was at 8180 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.76% from the beginning of the month and 3.15% from the same period last year. Downstream customers have basically completed their stock preparation, with the main downstream EB market weakening, pure benzene spot negotiations declining, and small order spot negotiations showing moderate enthusiasm and strong bargaining sentiment, resulting in overall negotiations declining.

On the downstream side, the three major downstream markets of styrene saw mixed fluctuations in September. At the beginning of this month, the average price of PS was 9466 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of PS was 9933 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 4.93% and a decrease of 5.10% compared to the same period last year. In September, the overall trend of PS prices increased first and then decreased. In the early stage, due to the support of raw material costs, the prices fell due to poor transactions in the later stage. It is expected that in the short term, domestic PS (polystyrene) may mainly experience a volatile trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of EPS ordinary materials fluctuated and increased in September. At the beginning of the month, the average quotation of EPS ordinary materials was 9850.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of EPS ordinary materials was 10323.00 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 4.80%. In September, domestic EPS prices were supported by costs, and it is expected that the domestic EPS market will mainly experience a narrow range upward trend.

The domestic ABS market fluctuated and rose in September. The overall performance of ABS upstream three materials in September was strong. The acrylonitrile market is relatively strong at a high level. Downstream devices in China are resuming work, with significant demand driven demand. Upstream goods are flowing smoothly, inventory has decreased to a low level, and propylene prices are driving up in line with the trend. Crude oil prices continue to strengthen, with stronger news support, boosting market confidence.

At present, there is a stock accumulation expectation in the styrene spot market, and downstream demand remains strong. Spot demand is weak, and there will continue to be bargain-hunting and replenishment at the end of the month. It is expected that the short-term volatility and decline in the styrene market will be the main trend.

Aluminum prices slightly declined in September

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on September 28, 2023 was 19856.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.26% compared to the aluminum price of 19610 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (September 1).

In the long term, the current price is in a sideways range after a high decline. Since May, the price has been fluctuating below 19000 yuan/ton, breaking through 19000 yuan/ton at the end of August. In September, aluminum prices fell first and then rose, with an overall upward trend of volatility.

Overview of Fundamentals

The weekly production is around 820000 tons

The domestic weekly production in September was around 820000 tons. Electrolytic aluminum supply exceeded expectations and resumed production in the third quarter. With the resumption of production of electrolytic aluminum enterprises in the southwest region, the current production capacity is at a relatively high level. Although the power cuts and production cuts in Sichuan have sparked concerns in the short term, the interference has gradually weakened due to the small scale of the reduction and the improvement in precipitation in Sichuan. At present, the operating capacity in Yunnan region is relatively high.

From a regional perspective, the price difference between aluminum in South China and East China has recently expanded significantly in China. From the perspective of the flow of goods, there is a phenomenon of arbitrage in the shipment of goods from South China to East China. It is expected that some South China holders will carry out cross regional arbitrage in the inventory of East China. In the future, the spot pressure in South China may decrease, and the East China region may show a state of accumulated inventory after the holiday, with the addition of imported goods and supplies from other regions such as South China.

Social inventory increased first and then decreased in September

In terms of social inventory, following the start of destocking in the second half of July, inventory is relatively low. In September, social inventory first increased and then decreased.

As of September 28th, the social inventory in the mainstream areas of domestic electrolytic aluminum ingots was 473000 tons. Compared to September 21st, there were 33000 tons of inventory removed. However, compared to August 31st, the inventory was 457000 tons and the accumulated inventory was 16000 tons. Based on year-on-year data, it is still at a low level in the same period of the past five years.

On September 29th, LME aluminum inventory recorded 486100 tons, a decrease of 4225 tons or 0.86% compared to the previous day; In the past week, LME aluminum inventory has increased by 3750.00 tons, an increase of 0.78%; In the past month, LME aluminum inventory has decreased by 31300 tons, a decrease of 6.05%.

Less than expected on the demand side

In terms of demand, there has not been an improvement in the orders and operating conditions of construction factories in Shandong, Guangdong and other regions, and some small and medium-sized construction profile processing enterprises have not yet received new orders. The downstream peak season effect is not as significant as expected during the peak season. At present, downstream aluminum bars and other primary processing enterprises in the aluminum industry maintain stable production during holidays, and there are basically no plans to suspend production for holidays. It is expected that the proportion of domestic aluminum water will remain stable during the festival, and the amount of ingots cast during the festival will not surge.

Future market forecast

Electrolytic aluminum production enterprises mainly maintain stable production, and the growth rate of operating capacity has significantly slowed down. Currently, aluminum ingot inventory continues to be low, which provides some support for aluminum prices. Currently, supply is sufficient, and demand is less than expected. In the peak season of the future market, demand needs to be fulfilled. It is expected that low inventory will continue to dominate the market trend in the short term, and aluminum prices will fluctuate strongly.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic EVA market has weakened and spot prices have fallen. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of September 22, the average ex factory price of EVA in China was 13633.33 yuan/ton, an increase of -2.62% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

The domestic EVA market has recently seen a decline in prices. On the supply side, the operating rate of the EVA industry has declined slightly compared to the previous period, but the current load position is still around 75%. The market supply is almost flat compared to the previous period, and factory inventory pressure has increased. The profitability of EVA polymerization plants has significantly declined, and some manufacturers have lowered their factory prices. The pressure on social inventory has increased, and the confidence of traders has been affected, leading to a decline in prices. On the demand side, it takes time to digest the early stocking of photovoltaic materials and cables. Recently, pre holiday stocking has gradually ended, and consumption has turned from strong to weak. The lagging follow-up of foam material towards terminal enterprises, low actual prices, and sluggish consumption during peak seasons have dragged down the overall demand side of EVA. The overall stocking operation on the site places orders according to demand, and companies have poor acceptance of high priced goods. Prices are dragged by the demand side and operate weakly.

Overall, the supply of EVA in the market has remained stable recently, while downstream demand for photovoltaic consumption has weakened. The demand for foaming materials has continued to be weak, causing supply pressure to rise. Overall, the company’s offer has started to decline, and merchants have a poor mentality, leading to a decline in the offer. It is expected that the domestic EVA market may continue to be weak in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong has recently risen. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1203.33 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1206.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.28%. The current price has dropped by 9.73% compared to last year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region has fluctuated and increased. From the above chart, it can be seen that the formaldehyde market has been mainly on the rise in the past two months, and this week the market continues to rise. As of September 21st, the mainstream market price in Shandong region is 1150-1260 yuan/ton. This week, the price of raw material methanol has shown an upward trend, with good cost support. The formaldehyde market has slightly improved in trading, and manufacturers have stabilized their shipments, resulting in a slight increase in the market.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market is on the rise, driven by demand, and the methanol market continues to improve, with a significant increase in order volume. The market atmosphere is relatively high, and shipments are smooth. In terms of supply and demand, there have been breakthroughs in pre holiday stocking by netizens. Methanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic methanol market is mainly characterized by high volatility.

The recent methanol market may fall, with poor cost support, weak demand from downstream sheet metal factories, and pressure on formaldehyde shipments. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society predict that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly decline in the near future.