1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic ammonium sulfate market was 883 yuan/ton on January 29th, and 880 yuan/ton on February 4th. This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market price fell by 0.38%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market prices have remained stable with minor fluctuations. As the Spring Festival approaches, the ammonium sulfate market has seen a decrease in inquiries and average trading on the market. Affected by snowfall in some parts of China, transportation is not smooth. As of February 4th, the mainstream market price for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Hebei Province is around 810 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation for ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 890-920 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Business Society, the price of ammonium sulfate has been stabilizing recently. The pre holiday market transaction atmosphere weakened, and downstream procurement enthusiasm weakened. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market will remain stable and operate steadily in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Business Society, nickel prices have slightly declined this week. As of February 2nd, the spot nickel quotation was 128516.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.76% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 43.88%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, nickel prices have fallen by 7 and risen by 5 in the past 12 weeks, with a slight decline in nickel prices recently.

On the macro level, the macro atmosphere has clearly turned bearish. The unexpectedly strong growth rate of US retail data in December has put pressure on expectations of early interest rate cuts, and the US dollar index has soared to a one month high.

Supply side: Capacity expansion and clearance cycle. In December 2023, the national refined nickel production reached a total of 24500 tons, a month on month increase of about 6% and a year-on-year increase of 40.57%; It is expected that the national refined nickel production will reach 23700 tons in January 2024. Major overseas nickel companies resumed production in the third quarter, with good profits and weak willingness to proactively reduce production.

In terms of demand: Some terminal industries have high prosperity, but the growth rate of demand is not as fast as supply. Alloy is the main downstream of pure nickel, and there is a very good demand for alloys in military and shipping industries. Enterprises “replenish inventory at low prices, but do not purchase at high prices.”. The demand for electroplating is relatively stable. Stainless steel inventory returned to neutral levels, and steel mills reduced production in January. The space for nickel beans used in new energy has been squeezed out. Last week, nickel prices rebounded, suppressing demand.

In summary, weak cost support and downstream buying on dips, coupled with policy uncertainty factors in the subsequent Indonesian election, have led to a more pronounced attitude of downstream buying on dips and not buying at high prices. Nickel prices have accumulated inventory for three consecutive weeks after rebounding. It is expected that nickel prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong has recently risen. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1203.33 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1210.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.55%. The current price has dropped by 2.94% year-on-year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region has slightly increased. From the above chart, it can be seen that the formaldehyde market has been mainly fluctuating slightly, with an increase this week. As of February 1st, the mainstream market price in Shandong region is 1150-1280 yuan/ton. This week, the price of raw material methanol has shown an upward trend, but downstream panel factories have poor demand, and market trading sentiment is average. Formaldehyde manufacturers are shipping normally, and the market is slightly rising with costs.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market is operating with a narrow upward trend. During the week, there were relatively few socially available spot goods, coupled with the impact of weather and other factors on unloading speed. At the same time, the transportation cost from the northwest production area to the sales area market increased, leading to a significant increase in domestic methanol prices. As supply gradually recovers, downstream receiving sentiment is average, and the market is mainly wait-and-see.

Recently, the price of raw material methanol has risen, with good cost support. However, due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, the demand for on-site consumer terminals has continued to be poor, and the transaction volume in the formaldehyde market is average. Therefore, the formaldehyde analyst of the Chemical Branch of Shengyishe predicts that the formaldehyde price in Shandong will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the near future.

In January, precious metal prices first fell and then rose, reaching a high level horizontally

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 31, 2024, the spot market price of gold was 481.10 yuan/gram, an increase of 0.17% compared to the spot market price of gold at the beginning of this month (January 1), which was 480.29 yuan/gram. During the month, the gold price first fell and then rose, and the overall high level fluctuated widely.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the average silver market price on January 31, 2024 was 5952.33 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.25% compared to the average silver market price of 5967.33 yuan/kg at the beginning of this month (January 1).

From November 2022 to early February 2023, precious metal prices significantly increased. From March to the end of April, due to the impact of the US banking crisis, precious metal prices once again entered a period of skyrocketing. Silver prices began to fall in May, while gold remained relatively strong. In June, gold prices hit a high level and silver prices began to rise. After July, gold prices became stronger. In mid to late September, precious metal prices were affected by news from the Federal Reserve, leading to a high level correction. In October, due to geopolitical factors, the risk aversion sentiment rose and continued to rise. In early November, the high range was weak and fluctuated horizontally. At the end of the month, precious metal prices resumed, and silver saw a stronger monthly increase than gold. Silver prices slightly declined in December, while gold prices remained relatively strong. In January, precious metal gold and silver fluctuated horizontally at high levels.

Macro fundamentals for January

Overseas macro:

1. Markit’s manufacturing PMI unexpectedly expanded in January, and the service industry also rebounded.

2. The manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone rebounded beyond expectations in January, reaching a nine month high.

Domestic macro:

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on January 31st, the domestic comprehensive PMI output index in January was 50.9%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, continuing to exceed the critical point, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises continue to expand. In January, the non manufacturing business activity index was 50.7%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, above the critical point, indicating that the non manufacturing industry continues to expand steadily. In January, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the manufacturing industry was 49.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a rebound in the level of manufacturing prosperity.

Logic of Precious Metals Market in January

Factors affecting the fluctuation of precious metal prices in January:

1. The policy factors of the Federal Reserve and the dynamic changes in market expectations of when the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates.

2. Geopolitical factors have intensified the geopolitical tension in the Middle East region.

3. Due to financial attributes, the willingness of speculative funds to take profits has increased after the price of precious metals reached a new high.

In January, we analyzed the reasons for the high level horizontal fluctuations in precious metal prices, as follows:

Negative:

The price of precious metals is already at a relatively high level, and there is a profit taking motive in the capital market.

favourable:

1. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike cycle is gradually coming to an end and entering a rate cut cycle, which logically favors interest free assets such as precious metals. According to CME’s “Federal Reserve Observation”, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in the range of 5.25% to 5.50% in February is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 2.6%. The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged by March is 33.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 65.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 1.7%. But debt reduction has become one of the tightening policies.

2. Geopolitical factors such as the Red Sea incident provide an expectation of hedging demand on an emotional level.

In February, we believe that there is a high probability of sideways fluctuations in precious metal prices.

Geopolitical factors have led to sustained high demand for central bank purchases worldwide. It is reported that the net purchase volume of global central banks in 2023 was 1037 tons, only a decrease of 45 tons from the record breaking 1082 tons in the previous year. Geopolitical factors such as the Red Sea incident may lead to uncertainty in inflation data, and also make the future monetary policy path of European and American central banks uncertain. We preliminarily believe that the policy path may still remain ambiguous in the short term and gradually become clear after March. It is expected that there will be a high probability of sideways fluctuations in February.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the market price of isopropanol increased in January. On January 1st, the average price of isopropanol in China was 7890 yuan/ton, and on January 30th, it was 8170 yuan/ton. The price increased by 3.55% during the month.

The market price of isopropanol increased in January. In the first ten days, the market price of acetone rose rapidly, confidence in isopropanol increased, the market improved, and inquiries from enterprises increased. The manufacturer’s quotation was relatively firm and upward. In mid month, market trading slowed down, and the isopropanol market temporarily stabilized and consolidated. In the latter half of the year, the isopropanol market remained strong and upward, with downstream restocking at the end of the year and immediate orders. As of now, the majority of isopropanol market quotations in Shandong region are around 7900-8100 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 8300-8500 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, overall in January, the domestic acetone market price first rose and then fell, and overall, the price increased. On January 1st, the average price of acetone was 7062.5 yuan/ton, and on January 30th, the average price was 7225 yuan/ton. The price increased by 2.3% during the month. At present, the intention of terminal factories to restock has slowed down, and the trading atmosphere in the market has slightly declined with the market downturn. Transactions are limited, and it is expected that acetone will maintain a strong adjustment state.

In terms of propylene, the market average in early January was 6868 yuan/ton, with an average price of 6930.75 yuan/ton on January 30th, a monthly increase of 0.91%. In January, the upstream of propylene showed mixed ups and downs, with average cost support, while downstream derivatives showed mixed ups and downs. The main downstream of polypropylene slightly increased, but production was not high, suppressing demand for propylene. The propylene analyst from the Chemical Branch of Shengyishe believes that the current wait-and-see atmosphere in the propylene market is becoming stronger, and downstream entry into the market is cautious. It is expected that the price center in the short term will be unstable and there is a possibility of a downward trend.

3、 Future Market Forecast

An isopropanol analyst from the Chemical Branch of Shengyishe believes that in January, raw materials acetone and propylene rose one after another, providing strong cost support. As the end of the year approaches, downstream and traders are restocking more at the end of the year, and the market trading situation is good. It is expected that the isopropanol market will temporarily stabilize, consolidate and operate in the short term by the end of the year.

Last week (January 22-28, 2024), the market for viscose short fibers remained stable and strong, with manufacturers mainly shipping and prices showing signs of upward adjustment. The overall stability of downstream cotton yarn is relatively strong, with an overall increase in sales. The prices quoted by yarn factories have slightly increased, and discounts have been slightly reduced. The operating load has slightly decreased to around 66%, and inventory has been basically maintained.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, last week (January 22-28, 2024), the overall price of viscose short fibers remained stable and increased. As of January 28th, the domestic factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber is 13060 yuan/ton, an increase of 220 yuan/ton or 1.71% compared to last week.

Cost wise: Last week (January 22-28, 2024), the price of raw material dissolved pulp slightly decreased, but cost support remains strong. The price of imported broad-leaved dissolved pulp is around 880 US dollars per ton, and the price of coniferous dissolved pulp is around 910 US dollars per ton. At present, the production of dissolved slurry in Hunan and Shandong facilities in China is priced at around 7400 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease in price. Actual orders are being negotiated.

Supply and demand: Last week (January 22-28, 2024), the operating rate of the adhesive short fiber industry was basically maintained, and the overall industry load is currently around 82.8%. Downstream procurement enthusiasm has improved, actively replenishing goods, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers has slightly decreased. The human cotton yarn factory mainly consumes inventory, and the enthusiasm for replenishment has increased. The human cotton yarn is stable and relatively strong, resulting in an overall increase in demand. The supply of low-priced goods in the market has slightly decreased, but the overall improvement is still limited, and market confidence is still insufficient.

Downstream cotton yarn market

Last week (January 22-28, 2024), the overall market for human cotton yarn remained stable and strong, with yarn mills offering higher prices and slightly reduced discounts. Overall shipments were average, and the operating load of human cotton yarn slightly decreased to around 66%, while inventory remained basically maintained. Most cases of slight losses maintain production, and the market lacks confidence in the later stage. As of January 28th, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first-class) was 17325 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton or 0.87% compared to last week.

Future Market Forecast

The price center of raw material dissolution pulp is strong, with strong cost support. Downstream cotton yarn factories are approaching the holiday period, and their enthusiasm for replenishment is not high. The trading atmosphere in the viscose short fiber market will be light. The market lacks confidence in the later stage and is bearish on the market before the Spring Festival. After last week’s price adjustment, analysts from Business Society predict that the market for viscose short fibers and artificial cotton yarn will continue to stabilize and operate in the short term.

This week, the price of ethylene oxide slightly increased, with a 1.54% increase during the week. According to data from Business Society, as of January 26th, the average market price of ethylene oxide in China was 6600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week; From a regional perspective, the epoxy ethane market in East China is priced at 6600 yuan/ton externally; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the South China market is 6600 yuan/ton; The listed price of epoxy ethane in North China is 6600 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the central China market is 6600 yuan/ton.

Overview of the ethylene oxide industry chain

The main downstream polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer enterprises have low inventory, relatively stable production, and relatively stable demand for ethylene oxide. The rest of the downstream enterprises mainly operate steadily; From the recent upstream and downstream product prices, it can be seen that downstream prices have started to rise, increasing profit margins and strengthening support for the price of raw material ethylene oxide in the short term.

Since mid to late December 2023, the price of ethylene glycol has remained strong, and some factories have begun to operate the appropriate conversion of ethylene glycol.

Short term supply may slightly increase, but prices are unlikely to improve in January

The demand for downstream products of ethylene oxide remains stable, and recently, ethylene oxide has been operating steadily. The supply side is affected by factors related to production conversion, resulting in an improvement in supply expectations. The main downstream industries are starting construction, and it is expected that the price of ethylene oxide will fluctuate strongly in the short term.

Recent price trends of calcium carbide

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region is temporarily stable this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China was 3000 yuan/ton, and the weekend price decreased by 22.08% year-on-year.

Insufficient upstream support and weakened downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have remained stable this week, with manufacturers operating at a low level and average inventory levels.

The upstream blue charcoal market has slightly declined, while the downstream PVC market prices continue to weaken. This weekend, the price of Shenmulan charcoal was around 1060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from the beginning of the week, indicating insufficient cost support. The PVC market price fluctuated and fell this week, dropping from 5550 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5538 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.22%. Weekend prices fell by 10.92% year-on-year. The PVC spot market is still in good condition, and the trading situation is average. The manufacturer’s quotation is mainly stable. Considering that the end of the year is approaching, some small processing plants are considering holiday issues, downstream demand is slowing down, enterprise inventory is high, and actual transactions are cautious.

Calcium carbide may experience a volatile decline in the future market

In late January, the calcium carbide market may experience narrow fluctuations and mainly decline. The downstream PVC market has slightly declined, downstream demand has weakened, raw material blue charcoal prices have slightly declined, and cost support is insufficient. In the future, it is expected that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will fluctuate and fall narrowly in late January, with consolidation being the main trend.

This week, plasticizer DOTP fluctuated and fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 22nd, the price of DOTP was 12037.50 yuan/ton, a volatile decrease of 1.33% compared to January 15th when the price of DOTP was 12200 yuan/ton. The price of raw material isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, resulting in a decrease in costs. This week, the price of DOTP has fluctuated and fallen.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 22, the price of isooctanol was 12900 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 0.19% compared to the price of isooctanol on January 15, which was 12925 yuan/ton. Large plasticizer manufacturers are in urgent need of procurement, resulting in weaker transactions of isooctanol. The price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, and the support for rising raw materials has weakened. The downward pressure on DOTP has increased. Isooctanol manufacturers are offering discounts to sell, leading to an increase in transactions and increased support for the rise of isooctanol in the future.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen this week, and the cost of plasticizers has decreased; Isooctanol manufacturers are offering discounts to sell, resulting in active transactions and an increase in transactions. DOTP costs are expected to rise. In the future, the cost of DOTP is expected to rise, and it is expected that DOTP prices will consolidate strongly.

Price trend

This week, the domestic EVA market has remained stable with minor fluctuations, and spot prices have loosened within a narrow range. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 19th, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 11433.33 yuan/ton, which is the same as the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

The price of EVA in the domestic market has remained stable and fluctuated slightly this week. On the supply side, the load level of domestic EVA enterprises has significantly decreased, and the operating rate has been lowered to around 75%, leading to a tightening of market supply. Petrochemical plants have a strong willingness to support the market, and EVA suppliers have decent support for spot goods.

The demand side of EVA performed average this week. The trading situation on the exchange is mainly focused on low-end offers, while the overall stock preparation and follow-up of downstream enterprises are average. The buying logic of the buyer camp remains unchanged, and there is resistance to high priced sources. Prices are pulled by markets in different directions and are steadily decreasing.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the price of EVA has remained stagnant and weak this week. The raw material market provides moderate support for EVA spot prices. The industry load has been reduced, and downstream demand is average. The confidence of operators is supported by the high prices of petrochemical plants, but as the end of the year approaches, the expectation of increased consumption in the future is low, and logistics is gradually slowing down. It is expected that the EVA market may remain weak and stagnant in the short term.