According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of December 19, 2023, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference was 13960 yuan/ton. Compared with December 1 (organic silicon DMC reference was 14320 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.51%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that from December to present, the overall market situation of domestic organic silicon DMC has shown a weak downward trend. In early December, the overall organic silicon DMC market saw a slight bearish decline. Downstream demand is not boosting well, and the atmosphere in the organic silicon DMC market is weak. The overall market situation is stable and declining, with slight looseness in actual transactions. In mid December, the decline in the organic silicon DMC market deepened, and the downstream of organic silicon DMC was in the off-season of consumption. Market demand remained weak, and the atmosphere of on-site bidding gradually rose. The overall transaction price approached a low level, and the price difference between high and low prices on the market gradually narrowed. As of December 19th, the domestic market price of organic silicon DMC is around 13800-14200 yuan/ton.

Prediction of the future trend of organic silicon DMC market

At present, the overall trading atmosphere of the domestic organic silicon DMC market is average. After the market gradually declines, some factories have improved their new orders, and the overall organic silicon DMC market is expected to stabilize. However, as the end of the year approaches, whether downstream stocking can be effectively opened is still a key factor affecting the market trend. Therefore, the organic silicon DMC data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the game between supply and demand in the domestic organic silicon DMC market is still significant, The market situation is mainly subject to narrow adjustments, and more attention needs to be paid to changes in supply and demand news.

Recent price trends of hydrochloric acid

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price remained stable this week, with an average market price of 112.50 yuan/ton. The weekend price fell by 35.34% year-on-year. On December 18th, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 29.61, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 78.53% from the highest point in the cycle of 137.89 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 64.68% from the lowest point of 17.98 points on September 5th, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

Weakened upstream support, average downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices have remained stable this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory is average.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market has recently experienced a significant decline, with weakened cost support. The downstream market price of polyaluminum chloride has slightly increased, with the market price rising from 1766.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1772.50 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 0.35%, and a year-on-year decrease of 12.58% over the weekend. The downstream ammonium chloride market has experienced a significant decline. The market price dropped from 727.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 702.50 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 3.44%, and the weekend price fell by 35.10% year-on-year.

Future Market Forecast

In late December, the market price of hydrochloric acid may fluctuate and fall mainly. The upstream liquid chlorine market has experienced a significant decline, with insufficient cost support. The downstream ammonium chloride market has also experienced a significant decline, and downstream purchasing willingness has weakened. Analysts from Business Society believe that the hydrochloric acid market has been experiencing a slight fluctuation and decline in recent times.

1、 Price trend

This Saturday, the market price of fluoropropylene will maintain stable operation. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 15th, there was no fluctuation in the domestic price of hexafluoropropylene, with a quotation of 36500 yuan/ton to 38700 yuan/ton, and the price remained stable compared to Monday.

2、 Price influencing factors:

Raw material side: The domestic fluorite price trend remained stable but declined this week. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of December 15th, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3562.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.35% from the beginning of the week price of 3675 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s hexafluoropropylene analyst believes that downstream demand is flat, with rigid procurement being the main focus. Due to poor demand transmission and low capacity utilization, the market is expected to maintain stable operation in the future.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the prices of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to decline this week. On December 14th, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 102400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.91% compared to the average price of 110000 yuan/ton on December 10th. On December 14th, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 112600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.7% compared to the average price of 119400 yuan/ton on December 10th.

By observing market changes, it can be seen that lithium carbonate has maintained a weak downward trend this week, with prices continuing to decline, while lithium carbonate futures prices have fallen and turned up again on the 13th. In terms of supply, most lithium salt factories in the market still rely on long-term cooperative shipments. With the continuous decline in prices, a few lithium salt enterprises with smaller production capacity have stopped production for maintenance due to losses, reduced OEM volume, and other factors. However, domestic lithium salt enterprises with a relatively large scale are currently maintaining a stable production state and have no maintenance plans in the short term. According to data statistics, the domestic production of lithium carbonate in November was 43093 tons, a month on month increase of 7% and a year-on-year increase of 18%.

In terms of demand, due to downstream battery cell companies gradually cutting orders and reducing quantities of positive electrode materials, coupled with the continuous decline in lithium carbonate spot prices, the overall purchase volume of downstream positive electrode materials has significantly decreased, with few zero order transactions, and the pace of long-term cooperative pickup has gradually slowed down. This has led to significant pressure on some salt companies to ship, and the market has poor expectations for future demand, resulting in a downward trend in the overall market quotation and transaction focus.

The price of lithium hydroxide is showing a downward trend. Due to the continuous decline in the upstream industrial grade lithium carbonate market, the price of lithium pyroxene concentrate in the upstream is weak, and the cost side continues to decline. The mentality of the industry is insufficient, and the enthusiasm of downstream inquiries is average. The focus of negotiations in the lithium hydroxide market is weak, and the market trading atmosphere is light.

The downstream price of lithium iron phosphate is declining, with insufficient downstream demand and high inventory levels. Manufacturers are operating under pressure, and overall market consumption is slow. A pessimistic attitude is evident. Downstream replenishment is mainly based on demand, with main supply to contracted customers and overcapacity. The lithium battery market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.

In terms of futures, the trading of lithium carbonate futures ended on December 13th, with a rapid reversal at the end of the trading day, and the limit up was reached from the moment of decline. On December 14th, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures continued its upward trend. On December 14th, the opening price of the LC2407 main contract was 104600 yuan/ton, with the highest price of 105450 yuan/ton and the latest price of 102550 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 8.58%. The transaction volume was 888900 lots and the position was 161651 lots.

According to analysts from Shengyishe Lithium Carbonate, the current lithium carbonate futures market has significant fluctuations and price reversals, but its impact on the overall spot market is relatively limited. However, the fundamentals of excess supply and demand in the market remain unchanged, and coupled with the difficulty of increasing demand from downstream cathode material enterprises, it is expected that the spot price of lithium carbonate will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of December 12, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 1034 yuan/ton. Compared with December 1, 2023 (reference price of phosphate ore is 1024 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.90%. Compared with November 1, 2023 (reference price of phosphate ore is 1024 yuan/ton), the price increased by 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.98%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in the first half of December (12.1-12.12), the overall domestic phosphate ore market showed a slight downward trend. At the beginning of the month, the domestic phosphate ore market remained stable and consolidated, with a quiet trading atmosphere in phosphate ore yards. In some areas, the ore supply remained tight, and the downstream terminal market of phosphate ore was generally stocked, with limited support from the demand side for phosphate ore. On December 7th, some mining companies in certain regions lowered the price of phosphate ore by about 10-30 yuan/ton, reducing the overall price difference between high and low in phosphate ore yards. As of December 12th, the domestic price of 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1020-1080 yuan/ton. The specific price may vary depending on factors such as the original ore specifications and powder to block ratio, and the specific price needs to be negotiated based on actual orders.

Prediction of future market for phosphate ore

At present, the overall atmosphere of the phosphate ore market is still good, and the mentality of phosphate ore holders is normal. Some mining companies are waiting for new orders to land next year. The phosphate ore data analyst from Business Society predicts that in the short term, the phosphate ore market will mainly operate steadily with small fluctuations, and more attention needs to be paid to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the asphalt market varies among regions. From December 4th to 11th, the price of asphalt in Shandong region increased from 3454 yuan/ton to 3477 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.68%, a month on month decrease of 5.35%, and a year-on-year increase of 0.07%. International crude oil has been continuously declining, with weakened cost support. Some businesses are mainly taking a wait-and-see approach, and market demand support is limited. Prices may maintain a stable, moderate, and weak trend.

On the supply side, the comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has decreased compared to the previous month, which has had a positive impact on the supply side.

On the cost side, macro level, global economic data remains weak, and the market generally expects to maintain the current interest rate policy unchanged, possibly starting to lower interest rates in March next year. On the supply and demand side, the increase in finished oil inventories in the United States last week exceeded expectations, especially the surge in gasoline inventories, which exacerbated the bearish sentiment in the market towards fuel demand. In addition, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) have not tightened their production cuts as expected by the market. The expectation of loose supply has put pressure on oil prices.

On the demand side, the main demand is in various regions, with small transactions being the main focus. Cold air is coming, and the cooling, rainy and snowy weather in northern regions is increasing, which may hinder the demand for essential goods, and market demand is expected to gradually weaken. The weather in the southern region has been favorable recently, and the market demand has been supported. The demand for asphalt in the market is mixed.

As of the close of December 11th, the petroleum asphalt futures market has risen. The main asphalt contract 2402 opened at 3709 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 3719 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 3676 yuan/ton. It closed at 3690 yuan/ton in the last trading day, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous settlement, an increase of 0.24%. The trading volume was 162571 lots, and the position was 296728 lots, with a daily increase of 435.

In the future market forecast, although the supply and demand are relatively balanced in the short term, the decline in crude oil has weakened sentiment. Coupled with the expectation of a decline in future demand, asphalt analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic asphalt market will maintain a stable, moderate, and weak operation.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam on December 4th was 13162 yuan/ton, and on December 8th, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 13112 yuan/ton. The price of caprolactam fell by 0.38% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of caprolactam has fallen this week. The price of raw material pure benzene has been lowered, weakening cost support. Downstream demand has decreased, and procurement is more cautious. The caprolactam unit is gradually recovering, with an increase in supply. At present, the market is mainly bearish, and the market for caprolactam continues to weaken. As of December 8th, the settlement price for Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam this week is 13400 yuan/ton. It is a liquid premium product and will be accepted and self picked up in June.

This week, the price of raw material pure benzene has dropped. On December 4th, the price of pure benzene was 6867 yuan/ton. On Friday (December 8th), the price of pure benzene was 6703 yuan/ton, a 4.58% decrease from last week. This week, the price of Sinopec’s pure benzene was 6800 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei regions fell by 400 yuan/ton simultaneously).

This week, the downstream domestic PA6 market has been operating weakly, with some spot prices adjusted. According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of December 8th, the domestic benchmark price of PA6 mixture was 14350 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.78% from the average price level at the beginning of the month.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society Caprolactam Analysts believe that the caprolactam market has recently undergone a slight adjustment. The raw material pure benzene market has started to recover, and the downstream PA6 market is not good, resulting in reduced demand. Partial caprolactam units have been restored, and supply side support has weakened. It is expected that the price of caprolactam will narrow down in the short term.

According to price monitoring data from Business Society, as of December 5, 2023, the reference price for domestic n-propanol market was 7883 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as December 1, 2023. Compared with November 1, 2023 (reference price for n-propanol was 7766 yuan/ton), the price increased by 117 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.50%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that in the early December, the overall domestic n-propanol market remained stable and organized, with little fluctuation in the market. The supply and demand information of n-propanol was relatively calm, and the transmission between supply and demand was basically normal. Some n-propanol operators and suppliers adjusted prices narrowly based on their own inventory and shipment situation, which had a relatively small impact on the overall trend of the current n-propanol market. As of December 5th, The domestic market price of n-propanol in Shandong region is around 7100-7850 yuan/ton. The normal operation of the n-propanol plant in the Nanjing area, and the overall stable operation of the n-propanol market, with a reference price of around 8500-9000 yuan/ton for the n-propanol market. Dealers in different regions still have reservations about prices, and the difficulty in monitoring prices may lead to differences in specific negotiation situations. Each region also has differences, and actual negotiations are the main focus.

Prediction of future market trends of n-propanol

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the domestic n-propanol market is mild, with many downstream demand purchase orders for n-propanol as the main source. The overall supply and demand transmission in the market is relatively stable. The n-propanol data analyst of Business Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will mostly operate with large stability and small fluctuations, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

This week, the lead market (11.27-12.4) fluctuated downward, with the average price in the domestic market at 16210 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week and 15770 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, a decrease of 2.71%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar indicates the magnitude of the rise and fall, and the overall market trend has been weak recently. The market has been declining for three consecutive months, and the lead ingot market has seen more declines than gains in recent times.

In the futures market, the recent trend of Shanghai lead has basically returned to the fundamental influencing factors, and the overall decline of Shanghai lead in the off-season of the market. LME’s lead inventory has risen to a high of 140000 tons, putting significant pressure on the market. In terms of supply and demand, enterprises that underwent maintenance in early December will resume work, and the lead ingot market is expected to improve. In terms of demand, downstream enthusiasm is relatively strong in the off-season atmosphere, and the battery industry is mainly actively destocking. The demand for automotive batteries is stable, but the overall operation of electric bicycle batteries is weak, and the overall demand is still weak. Overall, the lead ingot market currently has loose supply expectations, weak demand, and is expected to operate weakly overall due to the impact of low demand season and high inventory.

On December 3rd, the non-ferrous index was at 1088 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 29.26% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 79.24% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 48th week of 2023 (11.27-12.1), there were a total of 7 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month in the list of commodity prices, of which 2 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 8.7% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase were silver (5.59%), nickel (5.21%), and gold (2.13%). There are a total of 12 products with a month on month decline, and 1 product with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored products in this sector; The top three products with a decline were cobalt (-8.48%), praseodymium neodymium oxide (-4.55%), and praseodymium neodymium alloy (-3.32%). The average increase and decrease this week is -0.38%.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Business Society, as of December 1st, the average price of high-quality power type lithium iron phosphate was 51900 yuan/ton. This week, the price of lithium iron phosphate was weak, with a 4.6% decrease compared to the same period last week and an 18.4% decrease compared to the same period last month.

This week, the price of lithium iron phosphate has experienced a broad decline, with prices continuing to operate at a low level, dropping 4.6% in a week. Downstream demand is insufficient, inventory is running at a high level, and manufacturers are operating under pressure. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and overall market consumption is slow. Downstream demand replenishment is the main trend. The lithium battery market has a pessimistic attitude and a bearish atmosphere.

The price of upstream lithium carbonate remains low, with a main decline in price. Supply and demand pressure still exists, a decrease of 22.49% compared to the average price of 159200 yuan/ton on November 1st. On November 30th, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 134000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21.08% compared to the average price of 169800 yuan/ton on November 1st. The willingness to purchase lithium carbonate in the market is not high, and the transaction atmosphere is difficult to improve.

Analysts from Shengyishe Lithium Iron Phosphate believe that the upstream lithium carbonate market has limited upward potential and insufficient upward momentum. The downstream automotive market demand is weak, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. The overall market of lithium iron phosphate is operating under pressure, maintaining a stable, moderate, and weak trend.