This week, the price of isooctanol rose and then fell back

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 17th, the price of isooctanol was 7950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83% from the price of 8016.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week; Compared to February 10th, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose by 7900 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.63%. The price of isooctanol rose and then fell, while the cost of plasticizer DOP decreased; The post holiday replenishment has ended, and the demand for isooctanol has fallen. The upward support for isooctanol has weakened, and the downward pressure has increased.

Downstream plasticizer DOP prices fluctuate and fall

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 17th, the DOP price was 8601.25 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.29% compared to the DOP price of 8626.25 yuan/ton on February 11th. The price of raw materials has fallen, and the cost of plasticizer DOP has decreased. After the Spring Festival, the replenishment of inventory has ended, and the demand for plasticizers has decreased. The demand support for cost reduction has weakened, and the downward pressure on plasticizers has increased.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s octanol products, in the future, plasticizer companies will have average production after the holiday, resulting in a decrease in demand for plasticizers. After the holiday replenishment ends, the support for demand for isooctanol will weaken, and it is expected that the price of isooctanol will slightly fall in the future.

According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 14th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 11500.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month.

Supply side: The market situation has remained stable this week, with enterprises actively starting production, and some regions experiencing tight supply of goods.

Raw material side: The price of raw material fluorite has risen this week. The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 14th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s fluorite was 3628.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.35% compared to the beginning of this month (3616.25 yuan/ton).

Recently, the market price trend of raw material sulfuric acid has remained stable. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 14th, the benchmark price of sulfuric acid in Shengyi Society was 387.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.65% compared to the beginning of this month (385.00 yuan/ton).

Demand side: Downstream refrigerant quotas are abundant, and downstream refrigerant companies may increase their procurement of hydrofluoric acid. Some companies have a strong reluctance to sell, resulting in price increases and strong support from the demand side for refrigerants.

Market forecast: Fluorite on the raw material side will rise, downstream refrigerant quotas will be abundant, and market demand will increase. Under the expectation of both positive supply and demand, it is expected that the hydrofluoric acid market will operate steadily with a moderate to strong trend. More attention should be paid to the news of leading enterprises and the market supply and demand situation.

This week (2.1-2.8), the dichloromethane market rebounded. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on February 8th, the average price of dichloromethane water in Shandong Province was 2495 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.22%;

The dichloromethane market is stable with a slight increase, with rising costs, loose supply performance, insufficient downstream demand, and low on-site trading enthusiasm. On February 8th, the ex factory price of mainstream dichloromethane in Shandong region was around 2450-2480 yuan/ton.

Supply side: The starting load has increased this week

Cost wise: Demand is slowly recovering, shipping pressure is easing, and prices of methanol and liquid chlorine continue to rise. On February 7th, the spot price of methanol at Shengyi Society was 2665.83 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.14% from the beginning of the month.

On the demand side: The atmosphere of the Spring Festival has not yet ended, and the activity of the refrigerant market is still low. Factories are resuming production one after another, and the overall industry is still under load. The current offer has risen to 43000 yuan/ton, and the sound of price increase continues.

Business analysts believe that after the holiday, with the recovery of logistics capacity, the increase in downstream production, and the strengthening of market demand, it will support the stable, medium, and strong operation of dichloromethane.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine has remained stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week was 21800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.54% compared to the same period last year. On January 23, the Business Society Bromine Index was 76.49, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 68.80% from the highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27) during the cycle, and an increase of 29.82% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of bromine is running steadily, and in the Shandong region, the price of bromine is running steadily. The mainstream market price is around 21500-22000 yuan/ton, and manufacturers are conducting centralized maintenance. Most downstream manufacturers have also stopped production. Downstream demand is weak. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have remained stable, with an average market price of 1644.33 yuan/ton from the beginning of the week to the weekend, an increase of 78.76% compared to the same period last year. Downstream demand is generally average.

Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to remain stable in the near future, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to remain stable. Downstream bromine stocking before the holiday has been basically completed, and demand is mainly based on on-demand procurement. The overall supply-demand game predicts that bromine prices may continue to consolidate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market will first rise and then fall in January 2025, with an overall upward trend. From January 1st to 23rd, the domestic market price of toluene increased from 6050 yuan/ton to 6700 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 10.74% during the period.

In the first half of the month, the overall trend of the toluene market was upward, and trading in the spot market improved significantly compared to the previous period. During this period, the strong operation of crude oil led to an improvement in the atmosphere of the spot market. The overall supply in Shandong region is tight, and the procurement of the oil blending industry is good, which has boosted the mentality of refineries. The factory quotation has been raised multiple times this week.

In the second half of the month, as downstream inventory replenishment intentions decline near the Spring Festival, market purchasing intentions gradually tighten. Due to insufficient demand, the toluene market will experience a pullback in the second half of the month

On the cost side: The international oil price market has risen significantly this cycle, and as of the 22nd, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $75.44 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is reported at $79.00 per barrel. During this cycle, crude oil prices have risen significantly. On the one hand, the OPEC+production reduction agreement has been extended until the end of the first quarter, and some oil producing countries are still implementing compensatory production cuts. The United States has increased sanctions against Russia, and there are strong concerns about supply shortages. The supply of crude oil has been supported by favorable factors, leading to a significant increase in crude oil market prices. On the other hand, the instability of the situation in the Middle East still exists, and the arrival of winter cold waves in Europe and America is expected to further boost fuel demand, which is good news for the international oil market.

Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene quotation has been raised multiple times during the cycle. Currently, the company is operating normally, with stable plant production and many products for self use, resulting in stable production and sales. As of January 23rd, East China Company quoted 6700 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6700 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6650-6700 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6700 yuan/ton.

Demand side:

On January 23rd, the price of xylene in the petrochemical sales company was temporarily stable, and the current execution price is 7300 yuan/ton. This price is implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other units are operating stably and selling normally, with a price increase of 200 yuan/ton compared to December 31st. PX prices have risen both inside and outside the cycle. As of January 22, the closing prices of the Asian xylene market were 856-858 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 881-883 US dollars/ton CFR China. The price has increased by $44/ton compared to December 31st.

Market forecast: The recent stable to strong trend of crude oil will provide a certain boost to the toluene market. The demand side has performed relatively well recently, and the Shandong region has performed well recently. However, with the downstream procurement intention coming to an end, there is currently a lack of market buying potential. Recently, the inventory of ports in East China has been relatively high on the supply side, and it is expected that there will be some room for downward adjustment in the toluene market in the short term.

Product Name: Isopropanol

Latest price: The market average price on January 22nd was 6660 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day.

Analysis points: The isopropanol market is currently stable and operating. The upstream acetone market is fluctuating at a high level, and cost support is still acceptable. As the end of the year approaches, downstream market inquiries are average, market trading is cautious, and trading is limited. Overall, the market enthusiasm is average and the market is relatively stagnant.

It is expected that the isopropanol market will stabilize and operate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 20th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 8075.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -3.00% compared to the beginning of this month (8325.00 yuan/ton). In early January 2025, the price of epichlorohydrin was relatively high, but subsequently, due to the impact of increased production capacity and the willingness of manufacturers to quickly release inventory, the price began to decline. The second half of the month was mainly characterized by price fluctuations and consolidation.

Price influencing factors: Supply side: Due to the planned resumption of production for most factory maintenance equipment in December, the market supply has increased.

Raw material side: The rise and fall of liquid chloropropene on the raw material side varies. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of January 20th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 7008.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.52% compared to the beginning of this month (6835.75 yuan/ton).

Downstream demand side: As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream enterprises have seen a certain increase in orders in the early stages. However, recent new orders have shown average performance, with insufficient follow-up on procurement and sluggish actual market transactions. Overall, during the off-season of market demand, the demand for epichlorohydrin is relatively weak.

Market forecast:

Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that with the restart and recovery of enterprise equipment, epoxy propane production has increased. Downstream demand side procurement is cautious and lacks follow-up, and there is a strong wait-and-see mentality. In addition, as the Spring Festival approaches, enterprises are gradually taking holidays and market closures. It is expected that the epoxy propane market will mainly experience fluctuations and consolidation, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

This week, the phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 20th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 7312.50 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and increased by 6.17% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride on January 12th last weekend, which was 6887.50 yuan/ton. The production of phthalic anhydride equipment is stable at a low level, and the inventory of phthalic anhydride is low; The Spring Festival stocking has ended, and the downstream demand for phthalic anhydride has decreased. The price of ortho benzene is strong and temporarily stable, the cost of raw materials is stabilizing, and the driving force for the price increase of phthalic anhydride still exists.

Supply side: tight supply of goods

Domestic phthalic anhydride plants operate at low loads, with approximately 60% of phthalic anhydride manufacturers operating at capacity. Phthalic anhydride manufacturers have low inventory levels, resulting in tight supply of phthalic anhydride.

The cost of raw materials such as benzene has increased this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 20th, the price of ortho xylene was 7200 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 7.78% compared to the price of ortho xylene on January 12th last week, which was 6680 yuan/ton. The price of ortho benzene has fluctuated and risen, and the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride has increased. The upward momentum of ortho phthalic anhydride has increased. Industrial naphthalene prices are consolidating strongly, and the cost of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is rising. The overall cost support for phthalic anhydride raw materials still exists.

Demand side: The DOP market has fluctuated and risen this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 20th, the DOP price was 8613.75 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 2.53% compared to the DOP price of 8401.25 yuan/ton on January 13th. The demand for raw material phthalic anhydride is in urgent need of procurement, and the replenishment of plasticizers by manufacturers during the Spring Festival has ended. The support for phthalic anhydride demand still exists.

Future forecast

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of cost, the price of ortho xylene has fluctuated and risen, while the price of industrial naphthalene has remained strong and consolidated. The cost of phthalic anhydride has risen, and there is a strong driving force for the increase in phthalic anhydride costs; In terms of demand, DOP manufacturers have high operating loads, and with the end of Spring Festival stocking, the support for phthalic anhydride demand has weakened. Overall, cost support still exists, downstream demand has weakened, and the future phthalic anhydride market has slightly fallen from its high level.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 11800 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of the week was 11866/ton, with a price increase of 0.57%.

Domestic activated carbon manufacturers’ quotations have risen this week, with the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China ranging from 9500 to 12500 yuan/ton. The market transactions are positive, and industry insiders are mostly optimistic, focusing on the market transaction situation.

Coconut shell charcoal has a certain amount of sales in applications such as gold extraction, water purification, and filter cartridges, especially for gold charcoal, which receives a lot of inquiries from the African market; The market for fruit shell charcoal is stable, and there is a recent rebound in imported carbonized materials. The industry should pay more attention to this.

Prediction: The transaction volume in the activated carbon market is improving, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate with a strong trend in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid market showed a stable trend this week. As of January 15th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 11500 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.72% from the beginning of this month.

Raw material side: The price of raw fluorite remains stable this week. The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight. The price of fluorite still provides some support for the hydrofluoric acid market. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of January 15th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s fluorite was 3603.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.52% compared to the beginning of this month (3622.50 yuan/ton).

On the demand side: As the end of the year approaches, refrigerant quotas are depleted, inventory remains low, but there is still a demand for stocking downstream, and market prices continue to remain firm.

Market forecast: High support from the raw material side, insufficient profit margin in the hydrofluoric acid industry, low downstream inventory, and still high and firm quotations will provide favorable support for the hydrofluoric acid market. Overall, the hydrofluoric acid market will mainly maintain its current situation next week, and more attention should be paid to the news of leading enterprises and market supply and demand.