1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, the spot market price of PVC slightly increased in April. On April 1st, the average price of PVC in China was 5530 yuan/ton. On April 30th, the average price was 5556 yuan/ton, and the price increased by 0.47% within the month.

2、 Market analysis

The spot market price of PVC slightly increased in April. In the first half of this month, the spot market price of PVC slightly increased. But overall spot market transactions are average, and the enthusiasm for terminal order placement is average. In the middle of the month, the PVC spot market prices showed a slight fluctuation and upward trend, with many manufacturer quotes tending to stabilize. The trading atmosphere on the market was average, and dealer prices were relatively flexible. In the second half of the month, the market was mainly volatile and slightly downward. Downstream procurement is relatively cautious, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. The enthusiasm for stocking up before holidays is average, and the focus is still on basic needs. As of now, the quotation range for PVC 5 type carbide materials in China is mostly around 5320-5750 yuan/ton.

In terms of imports and exports, according to the latest customs statistics, in March 2024, China imported 27000 tons of pure PVC powder, an increase of 109.2% month on month and a decrease of 50.1% year on year; The export of PVC pure powder reached 297000 tons, an increase of 84.8% month on month and 38.3% year-on-year. From January to March 2024, China imported a total of 62000 tons of pure PVC powder, a year-on-year decrease of 59.5%; Accumulated exports of PVC pure powder amounted to 626000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.1%.

On April 29th, international crude oil futures closed lower. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $82.63 per barrel, a decrease of $1.22 or 1.5%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $87.20 per barrel, a decrease of $1.01 or 1.1%. The main reason is that the ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas have eased geopolitical tensions and lowered the risk premium.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region fell in April. On April 1st, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China increased from 3000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2883.33 yuan/ton on March 29th, a decrease of 3.89%. Overall, downstream procurement performance was average, and the process of removing calcium carbide inventory was slow. It is expected that in the short term, the price of calcium carbide in the market will temporarily remain stable, and costs may rebound after the holiday due to pressure.

On a macro level, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that from January to March, the national real estate development investment was 2208.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%. From January to March, the construction area of real estate development enterprises was 678.51 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.1%. The newly constructed area of housing is 172.83 million square meters, a decrease of 27.8%. The completed area of houses is 152.59 million square meters, a decrease of 20.7%.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society PVC analysts believe that PVC futures have completed the replacement of main contracts this month, and the trend of futures prices remains average, with no positive support from the spot market. Downstream demand is still dominated by rigid demand, and real estate data is still declining. It is expected that PVC spot prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term.

After the holiday, the price of isobutyraldehyde increased significantly

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of isobutyraldehyde has significantly increased after the holiday. As of May 6th, the domestic quotation for isobutyraldehyde was 7975 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.25% compared to the price of 7650 yuan/ton on May 1st.

The overall production of isobutyraldehyde in April has significantly decreased, but compared to downstream production, the decline in production is limited. The isobutyraldehyde factory has sufficient supply but insufficient demand. The prices of raw materials have stabilized strongly, and the support for raw materials still exists.

The price of raw material propylene fluctuates and consolidates

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 6th, the price of propylene was 6774.60 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.38% compared to the price of 6800.60 yuan/ton on May 1st. The prices of raw material crude oil have stabilized at a high level, while the support from the rise in propylene costs remains. The supply of propylene is sufficient, and downstream production has increased. After the holiday, propylene has stabilized at a high level.

Downstream demand support

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 6th, the price of new pentanediol was 9966.67 yuan/ton, which is strong and temporarily stable compared to the price of 9966.67 yuan/ton on May 1st. After the holiday, some new pentanediol companies have raised their prices, and downstream demand support still exists. The upward momentum of isobutyraldehyde has increased.

Market Overview and Forecast

Business Society’s isobutyraldehyde industry analyst believes that in terms of cost, the strong consolidation of raw material propylene prices still supports the rise in isobutyraldehyde costs; In terms of supply and demand, the production of isobutyraldehyde is stable, the supply of isobutyraldehyde is sufficient, and the production of new pentanediol enterprises is stable. The demand support for isobutyraldehyde still exists. In the future, due to limited cost support, supply and demand have increased, and isobutyraldehyde enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices. It is expected that isobutyraldehyde prices will consolidate strongly in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the market for polyaluminum chloride in April was volatile and downward. The solid (industrial grade, with a content of ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride market in China reported around 1793.75 yuan/ton on the 30th and 1806.25 yuan/ton on the 1st, a decrease of 0.69%. Water treatment enterprises in China’s main production areas are operating normally, with abundant market supply. Downstream procurement is based on demand, and the price of raw material hydrochloric acid is rising. The fuel market is also rising, and the cost of polyaluminum chloride is rising.

Raw material hydrochloric acid: In April, the domestic hydrochloric acid market showed strong performance, with manufacturers maintaining a low operating rate and low inventory. The manufacturer’s equipment remains stable, the price of acid production remains rigid and stable, and the sales are relatively active.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic liquefied natural gas market prices were relatively strong and increased in April. In early April, domestic demand for liquefied natural gas performed poorly, with the market mainly oversupplied and liquid prices slightly declining. During the Qingming Festival, hazardous chemical vehicles were restricted and transportation was not smooth. After the Qingming Festival, transportation resumed smoothly and market trading increased. Maintenance of some domestic liquid plants has led to a decrease in the supply of liquefied natural gas. In the context of tight supply, low liquid prices are starting to push upwards. Downstream restocking enthusiasm has increased, market demand has recovered, and the atmosphere of liquid factory adjustment is obvious. In mid April, due to the rise in import gas prices, domestic liquefied natural gas prices followed suit, stimulating an increase in domestic terminal prices, and both sea and land prices of liquefied natural gas rose. At the end of the month, the rise of domestic liquefied natural gas slowed down, and the market was mainly wait-and-see.

Market forecast: In April, the market for raw material hydrochloric acid and fuel liquefied natural gas will rise, while the cost of polyaluminum chloride will rise. On the supply side, Chinese polyaluminum chloride manufacturers are producing normally and have sufficient inventory; On the demand side, downstream procurement is on demand. At present, the domestic supply of polyaluminum chloride exceeds demand, and it is expected that the market for polyaluminum chloride will mainly consolidate after the holiday.

In April, the domestic glycerol market prices slightly decreased. According to the data monitoring system of Business Society, as of April 29th, the benchmark price of glycerol in Business Society was 4325.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.54% compared to the beginning of this month (4437.50 yuan/ton).

In early April, there was a significant increase in palm oil market prices, but towards the end of the month, there was a slight decline. The main Malaysian palm oil inventory is low, prices are strong, and the quoted prices have also been rising. So the cost of imported glycerol in China has increased, driving up futures prices. With the arrival of the Malaysian palm oil production season, the supply has gradually increased, and the raw palm oil market has declined. In addition, the limited number of foreign markets, weak domestic demand, and weak downstream procurement atmosphere have led to a slight decline in glycerol market prices under dual pressure. At present, the market trading volume is insufficient and orders are limited, with a focus on wait-and-see.

According to the monitoring of Business Society, on April 29th, the benchmark price of palm oil in Business Society was 8042.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.40% compared to the beginning of this month (8240.00 yuan/ton).

In terms of import and export: According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, the total import volume of glycerol in March 2024 was 72655.815 tons, an increase of 35.76% compared to the previous month; The total export volume of glycerol (glycerol) was 381.421 tons, an increase of 62.46% compared to the previous period.

Post forecast: According to the glycerol data analyst from Business Society, the raw palm oil market is showing a downward trend, with an increasing trend in inventory. Downstream demand is cold, and procurement is not active. As the May Day holiday approaches, it may continue to operate weakly. For more information, please pay attention to the dynamics of external quotation and market guidance.

1、 Price trend

Taking sulfuric acid based rutile type titanium dioxide, which has a large volume of sales in the domestic market, as an example, according to monitoring data from Business Society, the domestic titanium dioxide market declined in April. On April 1st, the average price of titanium dioxide was 17266.67 yuan/ton. On April 28th, the average price of titanium dioxide was 17133.33 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 0.77%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic titanium dioxide market price fell in April. In the first half of the year, the domestic titanium dioxide market prices remained stable, and the overall trading situation on the market was average. Traders were more flexible in their prices, and downstream customers were more cautious, with a focus on purchasing in demand. In mid month, the overall trading situation on the domestic exchange was slightly light, with limited new orders and a downward focus on trading on the exchange. In the second half of the year, new orders in the domestic market were limited in trading, and there was a strong wait-and-see sentiment on the market, with cautious procurement. As of now, most domestic quotations for rutile type titanium dioxide are between 16700 and 18300 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 15500 yuan/ton.

According to customs data, the import volume of titanium dioxide in China in March 2024 was 10463.99 tons, an increase of 123.62% year-on-year and 45.06% month on month; In March, the import of titanium dioxide produced by sulfuric acid method reached 2391.07 tons, an increase of 81.76% compared to the previous month; In March, the import of chlorinated titanium dioxide reached 8072.92 tons, a month on month increase of 36.87%. From January to March 2024, China imported approximately 24300 tons of titanium dioxide, an increase of 84.65% compared to the same period last year, and the import volume increased by approximately 11100 tons.

In March 2024, China’s titanium dioxide exports reached 196100 tons, a month on month increase of 46.72% and a year-on-year increase of 29.61%; In March, the export of titanium dioxide produced by sulfuric acid method reached 151500 tons, an increase of 41.87% compared to the previous month; In March, the export of chlorinated titanium dioxide reached 44600 tons, a month on month increase of 65.96%. From January to March 20

24, China exported approximately 489500 tons of titanium dioxide, an increase of 11.98% year-on-year, and an increase of approximately 52400 tons in export volume.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the market price of titanium concentrate in the Panxi region remained stable, moderate, and weak in April. The manufacturer’s prices are mainly stable, while traders have more flexible prices. At present, there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, and there is significant cost pressure in the downstream titanium dioxide market, so purchasing is cautious. As of now, the tax-free quotation for grade 38-42 titanium ore is around 1580-1600 yuan/ton, the tax-free quotation for grade 46 10 titanium concentrate is around 2300 yuan/ton, and the tax-free quotation for grade 47 20 titanium concentrate is around 2350-2480 yuan/ton. In the short term, the market price of titanium concentrate is mainly strong, and the actual transaction price is negotiable.

According to customs data, China imported 478900 tons of titanium ore in March 2024, an increase of 11.23% year-on-year and 22.87% month on month; From January to March 2024, China imported a total of approximately 1.1749 million tons of titanium ore, a year-on-year increase of 6.45%, and the import volume increased by approximately 71200 tons.

In March 2024, China exported 12055.07 tons of titanium ore, an increase of 882.48% year-on-year and 1170.92% month on month; From January to March 2024, China’s cumulative export of titanium ore was about 15038.81 tons, a year-on-year increase of 39.11%, and the export volume decreased by about 4228.01 tons.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market prices fell in April. According to data monitoring from Business Society, the average price of domestic sulfuric acid on April 1st was 328.75 yuan/ton, and on April 28th it was 277.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.59%. The downstream market is weak, with limited demand for sulfuric acid and significant pressure on manufacturers to ship, resulting in a decline in market prices.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society Titanium Dioxide Analyst believes that the titanium dioxide market has been weak this month, with stable and weak upstream titanium concentrate prices and a decline in sulfuric acid prices. The cost support for titanium dioxide is average. It is expected that the trend of titanium dioxide will be weak in the short term, depending on downstream market demand. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

Recently (4.17-4.25), the domestic ethyl acetate market has shown weak performance and prices have continued to decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of the 24th, the decline in ethyl acetate has been 0.68%, with a cumulative range of 30-100 yuan/ton. The main reason for the bearish performance of cost demand.

Market analysis: Since April 17th, the supply and demand of ethyl acetate market has been continuously weak. The high utilization rate of production capacity on the supply side has put pressure on supplier shipments, and the bidding prices of Shandong’s main factories have been lowered, suppressing market confidence; In terms of demand, terminal consumption is slow, downstream purchases are followed up on demand, and the demand side continues to be bearish. On the raw material side, the price of acetic acid is relatively weak and the cost support is weakened, which may continue to be transmitted to the terminal in the later stage, affecting the downstream trend of ethyl ester.

In the future, with weak supply and demand of ethyl acetate and difficulty in improving short-term fundamentals, it is expected that the ethyl acetate market will maintain a weak consolidation in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the price execution of raw material acetic acid and ethyl acetate manufacturers. At present, the mainstream transaction price in the market is between 6200-6450 yuan/ton.

This week, the maintenance of some domestic acrylic ester factories has been completed, and the capacity utilization rate has slightly increased. Its supply has also resumed, but the demand recovery is less than expected, and the acrylic ester market is operating steadily. As of April 24th, the benchmark price of butyl acrylate for Shengyishe is 9500.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price.

This week, the benchmark price of ethyl acrylate for Business Society is 9375.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week; The benchmark price of isooctyl acrylate is 12625.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week.

From the perspective of raw materials in the industrial chain;

The price of acrylic acid has remained stable this week. On April 24th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyishe was 6825.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price.

The price of raw material propylene has been on a downward trend. As of April 24th, the benchmark price of propylene for Shengyishe was 6820.60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.21% compared to last week’s (6906 yuan/ton).

This week, the domestic ethanol market continued to show an upward trend, with an increase in market price increases. As of April 24th, the benchmark price of ethanol for Shengyishe was 6000.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.62% compared to the beginning of this month (5962.00 yuan/ton).

This week, n-butanol rose first and then fell, with costs maintaining a range of operations. As of April 24th, the benchmark price of n-butanol in Shengyishe was 7883.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.22% compared to last week (7900.00 yuan/ton).

This week, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and increased. As of April 24th, the benchmark price of isooctanol in Shengyishe was 9760.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.42% compared to last week (9620.00 yuan/ton).

The prices of alcohols in the market have fluctuated this week, providing moderate support for the acrylic ester market.

From the perspective of downstream products in the industrial chain;

The trading rate of adhesive tape master rolls in the market has slowed down compared to the previous period, and there has been a decrease in procurement in recent times. Some orders are now being accepted and processed. The order volume of tape master roll enterprises has declined, and the market performance is slightly lackluster. Tape master roll enterprises have accumulated inventory, which is sufficient and has a certain negative effect on prices.

The acrylic acid lotion market is facing a situation of insufficient demand for goods and continuous tightening of profit margin. The market continues to be stable for the time being. The industry lacks confidence in the future market. The downstream is obviously wait-and-see, cautious in entering the market, and the atmosphere of trading and investment in the market is light. It is expected that this situation will continue next week, and the market improvement will be limited.

Overall:

At present, the acrylic ester market is mainly affected by raw materials and downstream demand. Analysts from Business Society predict that the acrylic ester market will continue to be dominated by supply and demand in the short term, and the price fluctuation space may be limited.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of styrene in Shandong was 9550 yuan/ton on April 16th, and 9690.00 yuan/ton on April 23rd, an increase of 1.47%. The current price has increased by 15.24% year-on-year.

styrene

The market price of styrene continued to rise this week. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has continued to rise in the past three months, and the recent market trend has been good. The pure benzene market is strong at a high level, with good cost support, domestic supply, and a decrease in mainstream warehouse inventory. Downstream terminal demand is mainly in demand, and the styrene market continues to rise.

Cost side

Recently, the overall increase in pure benzene in China has been good. The price difference between Shandong and East China is still relatively wide, with some sources of goods heading south for arbitrage. The demand side in the East China market is actively stocking up, and spot traders are buying up and entering the market. Most refineries in Shandong continue to raise their prices. After the price increase, market buying continued and transactions were better.

Supply side

In April, there were many inspections of the styrene unit. On the 18th, Shandong Lihuayi’s 80000 ton/year styrene unit produced 160 tons per day, and a new 720000 ton/year unit was shut down for maintenance. Styrene inventory remained low, and domestic supply remained at a relatively low level, which was beneficial for the styrene market.

Demand side

Recently, all three downstream markets of styrene have risen. The PS market has seen a slight increase, driven by the demand for home appliance packaging. The fast material circulation speed in East and South China has accelerated, and the overall transaction atmosphere has accelerated. The market is expected to rise. Recently, the domestic ABS market has seen a high rise. The domestic ABS industry has taken on the pattern of load reduction and adjustment in the early stage, with an average weekly operating rate of around 56%. Although there has been a resumption of work in Dagu, Tianjin recently, there will be varying degrees of load reduction in Haijiang, Shandong, and Lihuayi in the future, and the supply of goods on site will still be reduced. The supply side has strong support for ABS spot goods. EPS is supported by the cost side, and the terminal air conditioning industry is entering a peak season. EPS is rising in the market under dual positive conditions.

Technical analysis

There is a high possibility of an increase in the future market of styrene, and spot prices may continue to rise. According to the prediction model of the Business Society Commodity Analysis System, since December 17, 2023, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started an upward trend. Currently, the two moving averages continue to rise in the same direction. On April 21, 2024, it is estimated that the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. a 7-day moving average crossing the 30 day moving average) occurring within the next 7 days is 38.11%.

Historical price monitoring [low to medium]: Since the beginning of 2024, the price of styrene has been continuously in an upward trend. The current monitoring positions are 1-year high, 2-year medium high, and 3-year medium high. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of styrene in the past three years is 8577.09 yuan/ton, with a median value of 8465 yuan/ton, a minimum value of 7163.33 yuan/ton, and a maximum value of 9766.67 yuan/ton. The low price difference (compared to the lowest price difference in the past three years) is 2526.67 yuan/ton, and the top price difference (compared to the highest price difference in the past three years) is -76.67 yuan/ton.

According to the styrene data analyst from Business Society, the recent decline in crude oil prices has led to poor cost support, and some of the previously repaired styrene units have restarted. There is an expectation of an increase in domestic styrene industry production, while analysts from Business Society predict a slight decline in the styrene market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic price of chloroacetic acid has decreased this month. As of April 22, the price of chloroacetic acid was 3175 yuan/ton, and on April 1, the price of chloroacetic acid was 3200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.77%.

Upstream aspect:

Upstream acetic acid: In April, the acetic acid market continued to be strong. In the early stage, the failure and shutdown of the Jiangsu Sopu unit, as well as the decrease in the load of the Tianjing unit, led to a significant decrease in the utilization rate of on-site production capacity, a decrease in manufacturer inventory, and a sustained increase in the strong acetic acid quotation. As downstream restocking continues, the demand for purchasing in the market gradually stabilizes, and the trading atmosphere in the market weakens. The acetic acid price runs steadily, and the overall on-site market is on the high side of observation.

Upstream liquid chlorine: The liquid chlorine market continued to decline in April. The market supply and demand in central China are running steadily, and some chlor alkali enterprises in Dongying have stopped exporting liquid chlorine. However, the demand side has poor purchasing sentiment, and prices continue to decline.

Downstream aspect:

In April, the price of indigo dye remained stable, and external demand in the clothing market was better than domestic demand. The operating rate remained above 90%. However, there was significant pressure from the domestic demand market, and dye enterprises actively reduced their inventory.

Business Society Chloroacetic Acid Analyst believes that in the cost composition of chloroacetic acid, liquid chlorine is not suitable for storage and transportation, which has a significant impact on the cost price of chloroacetic acid. In the future, attention should also be paid to the trend of liquid chlorine and downstream demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic PTA spot market showed a trend of first rising and then falling this week (April 15-19). As of April 19, the average market price in East China was 5948 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.18% compared to the beginning of the week.

This week was mainly affected by cost factors. In the early stage, the geopolitical situation was tense, and European and American crude oil futures rose to a new six month high. In addition, multiple sets of PX devices were shut down unexpectedly, and the cost side trend was strong, pushing up the PTA market. However, as the geopolitical situation eased, crude oil prices fell. At the same time, PTA devices restarted, and new production capacity produced qualified products, making PTA supply sufficient, and PTA spot prices fell.

Looking at the future market, the current environment for crude oil is relatively complex, and the performance of oil prices is also relatively stagnant and anxious. As of April 18th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was reported at $82.10 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was reported at $87.11 per barrel. Macro and demand are suppressing oil prices in the short term, and the space for further upward movement of oil prices is being suppressed. In addition, given that the current geopolitical tensions have not escalated, crude oil has the potential to mitigate risk premiums and reshape valuation expectations. But the risk has not been lifted, coupled with the start of the North American driving season, gasoline demand is expected to rise, which will provide support for oil prices. Overall, the supply and demand game in the oil market will intensify in the short term, and there is a greater possibility of oil prices maintaining high volatility.

There are still some maintenance plans for PX devices in Asia, but Zhejiang Petrochemical and Hengli Petrochemical, with a total of 4.5 million tons of devices, will resume operation. Therefore, the overall supply of PX is gradually recovering, and the demand side is performing well due to the expected restart and load increase of PTA factories. It is necessary to be cautious of the announcement of subsequent maintenance arrangements for some PTA factories. The high inventory situation of domestic PX continues, and prices are expected to fall and consolidate.

PTA’s own supply will also increase. Jiatong Energy may restart a 2.5 million ton PTA unit on April 23, while Yisheng Dalian’s 2.25 million ton PTA unit is currently operating at around 80%, with plans to increase load starting next week. In addition, there are currently no other planned large-scale PTA device maintenance or restarts, and attention still needs to be paid to unplanned maintenance.

At present, the operating load of the downstream polyester industry is stable around 90%, and the order performance is average. Some weaving and texturing factories may purchase goods appropriately, but their willingness to accept high priced raw materials is low, and they still have a wait-and-see attitude. The polyester filament factory has a strong Poly Run mentality, with a weak trading atmosphere and a stable to weak market transaction focus. Cotton mills still have a strong demand for polyester staple fibers, but weak terminal demand is dragging down market sentiment, with small purchases being the main focus.

Business Society analysts believe that the focus of cost support is weakening, high PTA inventory makes spot supply sufficient, and downstream demand is average. Therefore, in the short term, PTA fundamentals are difficult to be optimistic, and prices may continue to adjust weakly.