According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of May 22, 2024, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 8033 yuan/ton. Compared with May 17 (reference price of n-butanol was 8133 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.23%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, it can be seen that this week (5.18-5.22), the overall market for n-butanol in Shandong, China, showed a downward trend. During the week, the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market in Shandong region weakened, and downstream demand for n-butanol was average, resulting in a lack of overall selling compared to the previous period. The pace of shipments from the main factories of n-butanol has slowed down, and the overall market price has slightly adjusted downwards, with an adjustment of around 100 yuan/ton. As of May 22nd, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong region is based on around 8000-8100 yuan/ton.

Market price situation of n-butanol

Region/ Product/ May 22nd

Shandong region/ N-butanol/ 8000-8100

North China region/ N-butanol/ 8050-8100

South China region/ N-butanol/ 8300-8400

East China region/ N-butanol/ 8250-8350

Upstream: On May 22nd, the benchmark price of propylene for Shengyishe was 6882.60 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.21% compared to the beginning of this month (6800.60 yuan/ton).

Future analysis

This week, the overall production capacity utilization rate of n-butanol has not changed much, and the overall supply side of the market has remained stable. The downstream demand side is mostly rigid procurement, with average support from the demand side. The n-butanol data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mostly adjust narrowly, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand news.

Last week (May 13-19, 2024), downstream demand continued to be flat, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. The raw material dissolution pulp market was generally stable, and the pressure on viscose short fibers was weak, maintaining stable operation, and prices remained stable. The downstream cotton yarn market has maintained stable production, with some models experiencing shortages. However, the overall market is still mainly focused on purchasing in demand, with no obvious signs of improvement on the demand side. Downstream yarn factories are mainly consuming inventory, and the release of new orders on site is limited. Viscose short fiber manufacturers are mainly executing shipments, and the overall market sales speed is stable.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, last week (May 13-19, 2024), the price of viscose short fibers remained weak and stable. As of May 19th, the factory price for 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber in China is 13180 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price.

Supply side: Last week (May 13-19, 2024), the operating rate of the adhesive short fiber industry remained stable, and production remained stable. The overall market supply has slightly decreased. The inventory of various manufacturers is still at a low level, and there is currently no inventory pressure. There is some positive support on the supply side.

In terms of demand: downstream people mainly execute orders in the cotton yarn market, with little price change. Downstream enterprises have average purchasing power, with multi-dimensional support and on-demand procurement. Currently, the new round of signing has ended, and the operators have entered a period of inventory consumption.

In terms of cost: Last week (May 13-19, 2024), the market price of raw material dissolution slurry remained stable, while the market price of auxiliary material liquid alkali and sulfuric acid remained stable, and the cost center remained stable. At present, the production of dissolved slurry in Hunan and Shandong facilities in China is around 7700 yuan/ton, and the price remains stable. Actual orders are negotiated.

Downstream cotton yarn market

Last week (May 13-19, 2024), downstream cotton yarn saw weak consolidation, with the market mainly executing orders. Some manufacturers adjusted prices narrowly, resulting in a slight decline in overall prices. Overall shipments were average, inventory remained stable, and demand was weak. Downstream demand did not show a significant improvement, and actual transactions on the market were limited. As of May 19th, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first-class) was 17225 yuan/ton, which is the same as the previous week’s price.

Future Market Forecast:

The upstream raw material market is stable, with low inventory from various manufacturers and stable production and sales. Downstream enterprises have average purchasing power, and they mainly deliver early orders. The overall market sales speed may continue to be stable. The replenishment cycle for downstream yarn enterprises is approaching, and the focus of viscose short fiber manufacturers is mainly on signing and shipping. Business Society analysts predict that the viscose short fiber market will remain stable in the short term, with market prices generally stable. The cotton yarn market will continue to operate weakly and steadily, with viscose short fiber prices expected to be between 13000-13200 yuan/ton.

Market analysis for this week

The magnesium ingot market remained stable this week. The market is in a stalemate, and due to cost reasons, manufacturers are reluctant to sell at high prices. However, downstream users and intermediaries have not seen significant improvement in demand, and there is insufficient high-level transactions for magnesium ingots. It is difficult for prices to change significantly in the short term, and factory quotations remain stable for the time being. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 17th, the average price of magnesium ingots in the domestic market was 18466.67 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week.

In terms of supply and demand

At present, some manufacturers in the market are experiencing losses due to relatively low prices, and their willingness to ship is low. Some manufacturers are shipping normally, and inventory pressure is relatively low. The overall market supply and demand pattern is relatively loose. Magnesium plants are operating at a relatively high level with sufficient supply, but the high and stable raw material prices provide strong cost support, making it difficult for magnesium prices to decline. However, downstream users lack the ability to accept high prices and only maintain basic replenishment, resulting in limited fluctuation space for magnesium prices.

In terms of raw materials

This week, the market price of ferrosilicon in Ningxia was between 6900-7000 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.83% compared to last week. Ferrosilicon manufacturers have seen higher profits, increased enthusiasm for resuming production, and increased production. Coupled with the centralized procurement of steel mills through bidding this week, corporate sentiment has improved. In the short term, the domestic spot market for ferrosilicon may continue to be strong.

This week, Orchid Charcoal is temporarily running steadily. Although the prices of raw materials have declined, due to the lack of inventory in many blue charcoal enterprises, some enterprises need to queue up for loading, and the market supply is temporarily tight. Blue charcoal enterprises have obvious price support sentiment. As of May 17th, the mainstream prices of small and medium-sized materials in the Shenmu market are 880-960 yuan/ton, and the coke surface is 610-680 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of small and medium-sized materials in the Fugu market is 890-1000 yuan/ton, and the coke surface is 660-700 yuan/ton.

Future Market Forecast

Due to cost support, many manufacturers are offering higher prices. But downstream users are resistant to high prices, and the upward trend of magnesium prices is weak. Overall, magnesium prices are in a dilemma, and it is expected that the short-term magnesium ingot market will continue to operate relatively steadily, with narrow fluctuations within the price range.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 17th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6570 yuan/ton, which is a decrease of 1.20% compared to the reference average price of 6650 yuan/ton on May 13th.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic phosphoric acid market prices have fallen this week. Downstream on-demand procurement, with relatively stable demand. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has slightly decreased, with insufficient cost support. The price of thermal phosphoric acid follows the trend of raw materials and tends to be weak. The wet process phosphoric acid market is steadily declining, with slight consolidation and operation. As of May 17th, the market price for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6350-6900 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6300-7000 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. The market price of yellow phosphorus has slightly decreased this week. At present, the trading situation in the yellow phosphorus field is still good, with manufacturers mainly issuing early orders and controllable inventory, while yellow phosphorus enterprises mainly raise prices. Downstream inquiries are more positive, procurement is more cautious, and demand is mainly for immediate needs. Overall, the upstream and downstream are relatively deadlocked. As of now, the market quotation for yellow phosphorus is around 22500-23000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

Market for raw material phosphate rock. This week, the domestic phosphate ore market remained stable and organized. The current inquiry atmosphere in the phosphate ore field is mild, and the pace of phosphate ore shipments in some areas is clear, with a good mentality among the operators. As of May 17th, the domestic market price for 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1030-1100 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s phosphoric acid analyst believes that the recent trend of the phosphoric acid market has been downward. The raw material yellow phosphorus is weakly sorted and operated, and the phosphoric acid market maintains a buying up and not buying down mentality, with cautious market operations as the main focus. At present, there is no positive support in the market, and it is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market will continue to operate in a wait-and-see manner.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 15th, the average market price of phenylenediamine was 38600 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from last week.

In terms of cost

Pure benzene: The domestic price of pure benzene has slightly decreased this week. On May 15th, the price of pure benzene was 8742 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.18% from last week. Shandong Refinery’s offer was strong, but buyer intention fell, prices fell, and transaction volume decreased. After the holiday, the rebound of crude oil was not significant. Overall, the trend of the crude oil market declined during the cycle, and the market was relatively weak due to the influence of crude oil.

Nitric acid: The domestic price of nitric acid has slightly increased this week. On May 15th, the price of nitric acid was 1913 yuan/ton, and on May 8th, it was 1876 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.97% compared to last week. The supply side of the concentrated nitric acid market is supported, with a slight increase in cost trends. The market mainly focuses on orders, and the market transaction situation has improved.

Overall, due to the impact of costs, the phenylenediamine market has fluctuated and reorganized, while the downstream epoxy resin market is operating lightly and lacks guidance from the news side. The market orders for dispersed dyes and reactive dyes have decreased, and the overall situation is not optimistic. Some manufacturers may have plans to reduce their burden. It is expected that the market for meta phenylenediamine will show a weak trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 15, 2024, the reference price for domestic butanone market was 8816 yuan/ton. Compared with May 1, 2024 (reference price for butanone was 8466 yuan/ton), the price increased by 350 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.13%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, it can be seen that in early May, the domestic butanone market as a whole showed a steady upward trend. Before Labor Day, the butanone market tended to operate in a more organized manner, but after the holiday, the market’s focus continued to shift upwards. As of May 15th, the domestic market price of butanone is based on around 8700-9000 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Factors Influencing the Market of Butanone

In terms of demand: In early May, the downstream demand for butanone remained stable and improved overall. The weather further warmed up, and the terminal market for butanone continued to recover. The enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials increased, and the smooth transmission of demand supported the butanone market to gradually move towards a high level.

In terms of demand: As summer enters, the recovery of the butanone terminal market is boosting, and the replenishment rhythm of downstream users is improving. Coupled with the export of butanone, the overall internal and external demand of the butanone market is performing well, and the demand side provides favorable support to the market.

In terms of cost: After the holiday, some butanone factories have delivered early export orders, and the overall supply side pressure is relatively low. With no pressure on production and sales, the focus of negotiations in the butanone market is constantly moving towards higher levels.

In terms of upstream liquefied gas: In early May, the market price of liquefied gas in Shandong Province first rose and then fell, showing an overall upward trend. On May 14th, the reference price of liquefied gas was 5124 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.43% compared to May 1st (5052 yuan/ton).

Market analysis of butanone

At present, the trading atmosphere on the butanone exchange is mild, and the mentality of the operators is good. However, in the past two days, there has been a loosening of the carbon four market after cost ether, which may have a certain impact on the butanone market. The butanone data analyst of Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic butanone market will mostly operate with large stability and small fluctuations, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand news.

According to the business commodity market analysis system, as of May 13, 2024, the factory price reference for domestic industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was 4166 yuan/ton. Compared with May 1 (reference price reference for dimethyl carbonate was 4133 yuan/ton), the price increased by 33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.81%. Compared to April 1st (with a reference price of 4000 yuan/ton for dimethyl carbonate), the price has increased by 166 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.17%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, it can be seen that in April, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market and overall showed an upward trend. After entering May, the overall performance of the dimethyl carbonate market has been stable and consolidating after a slight increase. At present, the trading atmosphere inside the dimethyl carbonate site is mild, and the supply side of dimethyl carbonate is relatively sufficient. Downstream users mainly purchase on demand, and the supply and demand transmission is still good. The mentality of the operators is good, and the dimethyl carbonate factories and supply side mainly maintain stable quotations. As of May 13th, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate is based on around 4000-4300 yuan/ton.

In terms of upstream epoxy propane: After the holiday, the overall epoxy propane market in Shandong region remained stable at a high level, with a reference price of 9225 yuan/ton on May 11th. The high and stable operation of epoxy propane has not reduced the cost pressure on the propylene glycol market, and the overall pressure on the propylene glycol market has declined during the week.

Continued upward momentum in the future market

After the holiday, the overall demand transmission of dimethyl carbonate downstream is still good, and the demand side supports the stable operation of the dimethyl carbonate market. According to the dimethyl carbonate data analyst from Business Society, in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market will mainly operate with large stability and small fluctuations, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from May 6th to 11th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price increased from 16866 yuan/ton to 17033 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.99% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 3.55%, and a year-on-year increase of 12.65%. The domestic aggregated MDI market prices are slowly moving upwards, with limited spot filling and low inventory. Under the premise of downstream demand follow-up, the market supply is tight, and prices are driving up.

On the supply side, the Shanghai BASF plant maintenance plan for mid May will last for about a month. North American Sci Tech device shutdown. The European Hungarian Borsod installation is beyond our control. The maintenance of the Dow device in Germany is expected to take around 45 days. North American BASF installation force majeure. The shrinking supply of production enterprises is influenced by favorable factors in the supply side.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The market price of pure benzene fluctuates narrowly, and the domestic supply of pure benzene has increased, but the demand for essential goods is stable. Shipping from the East China warehouse area is limited, and delivery is active, resulting in tight market supply and demand. As of May 11th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shengyishe is 8758.83 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: Currently, the domestic aniline market is weak and consolidating. As of May 11th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shengyishe is 11267.50 yuan/ton. The cost side of MDI aggregation is influenced by bearish factors.

On the demand side, the downstream foam adhesive market has been following up with increasing orders, while social inventory continues to remain low. Hard demand orders are slowly following up, but with the rise of aggregated MDI prices, some downstream orders are struggling to follow up, with small orders mainly following up slowly. The short-term aggregate MDI demand side is influenced by favorable factors.

In the future market forecast, the supplier controls the quantity of goods to be shipped, but the filling of goods is slow. The overall driving force still exists, and the downstream consumer market is still able to follow up, with strong consumption capacity. Business Society’s aggregated MDI analyst predicts that the domestic aggregated MDI market is mainly strong and following up.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China on May 9th was 5633 yuan/ton, which is 0.59% lower than the average price of 5666 yuan/ton on May 5th.

2、 Market analysis

After the holiday, the market price of chlorinated paraffin has fallen, and manufacturers are operating at low loads. After the holiday, the prices of raw materials such as liquid wax and liquid chlorine have decreased, leading to weakened cost support. Downstream rigid demand procurement, overall demand performance is insufficient, and market trading is limited. As of May 9th, the ex factory price of 52 environmentally friendly chlorinated paraffin in Anhui region is about 6000 yuan/ton, and the market price of 52 national standard chlorinated paraffin in Shandong region is about 5450-5600 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax continued to decline this week, with a downward trend as the main trend. Liquid wax fluctuated with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine was initially suppressed and then increased this week. Currently, there is resistance from downstream towards high prices, and negotiations on actual orders are the main focus.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Shengyishe Chlorinated Paraffin, the recent consolidation and operation of raw material prices have reduced the fluctuation in cost. The terminal demand for chlorinated paraffin needs to be improved, and the market is mainly bearish. It is expected that the short-term chlorinated paraffin market will be weak and consolidating.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of April 30, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 1042 yuan/ton. Compared with the reference price of 1062 yuan/ton on April 4 and 1, the price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.88%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, it can be seen that in April, the overall phosphorus ore market in China showed a weak downward trend, with a narrow downward trend in the focus of the phosphorus ore market. Although the “Golden Three Silver Four” has arrived, the phosphate ore market has not experienced a significant peak season effect. The downstream market demand for phosphate ore terminals is poor, and the terminal market is dragging down the phosphate ore market from bottom to top. The overall supply and demand transmission of phosphate ore is slow, and the overall trading atmosphere on the market is light. Starting from the beginning of the month, some regional mining enterprises have lowered the prices of mid to high-end grade phosphate ore, with a cumulative reduction of about 10-30 yuan/ton. As of April 30th, the domestic market price of 30 grade phosphate ore is based on around 1000-1100 yuan/ton. The specific price may vary depending on factors such as the original ore specifications and powder to block ratio, and the specific price needs to be negotiated based on actual orders.

Attached are the market prices of phosphate ore in some domestic regions (for reference only):

Product/ Region/ Taste/ Price/ Remarks/ Date

Phosphate ore/ Guizhou region/ 30 grade/ 1000-1100 yuan/ton/ Organize and run/ April 30th

Phosphate ore/ Guangxi region/ 30 grade/ 1030-1090 yuan/ton/ Organize and run/ April 30th

Phosphate ore/ Sichuan region/ 30 grade/ 1050-1080 yuan/ton/ Stable operation/ April 30th

Phosphate ore/ Yunnan region/ 30 grade/ 1050-1080 yuan/ton/ Stable operation/ April 30th

Phosphate ore/ Hubei region/ 30 grade/ 1070-1100 yuan/ton/ Stable operation/ April 30th

Future analysis

At present, the trading atmosphere inside the phosphate ore field is mild. At the end of the month, the downstream terminal market demand for phosphate ore has slightly rebounded, giving businesses some confidence. In some regions, phosphate ore shipments are still acceptable. According to the phosphate ore data analyst from Business Society, in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market will mainly operate with large and small fluctuations, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.