1、 Price trend

This month, domestic methyl ethyl carbonate showed a slight downward trend overall. As of May 30th, the benchmark price of methyl ethyl carbonate in Shengyishe was 8333 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.19% compared to the beginning of this month (8433 yuan/ton). This month, the methyl ethyl carbonate industry has seen a significant increase in new developments and equipment construction, resulting in a low load under the pressure of losses.

Market quotations for carbonates

The mainstream price of methyl carbonate is 7800-8200 yuan/ton for acceptance delivery, 5000-5300 yuan/ton for ethylene carbonate, 7250-8250 yuan/ton for propylene carbonate, and 4550-5220 yuan/ton for battery grade dimethyl carbonate. The factors that affect price fluctuations, in addition to cost support, are still the main factors that suppress market trends, including supply and demand pressure and poor transmission of the industrial chain.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost

Dimethyl carbonate has been operating weakly and steadily this month. As of May 30th, the benchmark price of dimethyl carbonate for Shengyishe is 4133.33 yuan/ton, which is the same as the beginning of this month. The trend of raw material prices fluctuates, with average support from the cost side. Mainstream offers continue to remain stable, and traders remain cautious, with some offering discounts to promote shipments. Downstream market sentiment is not high, and actual orders are mostly based on on-demand procurement. The supply and demand relationship is not improving, and the market is not supported by favorable factors. The market is consolidating, and we are watching actual orders.

In terms of demand

According to data, the average price of domestic electrolytes in the first quarter of 2024 was 21000 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 54.15%; The gross profit was 1111.21 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 58.29%. At present, the price and profit level of electrolyte have entered the grinding stage. Electrolyte production enterprises continue to maintain a high operating rate and determine production based on sales.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Recently, the market for methyl ethyl carbonate has been operating weakly, with weak spot negotiations and negotiations for large orders at lower prices. In the near future, some maintenance equipment will be restarted, and the supply side will increase. The supplier intends to promote transactions mainly to alleviate inventory pressure. But currently, the overall demand side load is average, and the main downstream demand procurement is mainly based on rigid demand, with cautious bearish sentiment on the market. The trading market’s trading enthusiasm is not high, waiting for more news to be released. Business Society analysts predict that in the short term, domestic methyl ethyl carbonate will continue to adjust narrowly.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the hydrogenated benzene market fluctuated and rose in May 2024. The ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China was 8666.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 9066.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 4.62%.

Crude oil prices: Business Society crude oil analysts believe that the future crude oil supply and demand game will continue. On the supply side, the OPEC ministerial meeting will be held on June 1st, at which time the organization will discuss production reduction policies. Currently, the policy tends to continue the previous production reduction scale. In addition, countries such as Iraq and Kazakhstan have submitted compensatory production reduction plans for exceeding quotas, and Russia’s technical excess has also promised compensatory production reduction. There will not be too much change on the supply side in the future. From the demand side, future demand may have two sides. On the one hand, gasoline demand in the United States is expected to increase as the summer driving season begins. At the same time, China is currently implementing intensive economic stimulus measures, and there is also some potential for future demand. On the other hand, in the medium to long term, oil demand is still constrained by the high interest rate environment in the United States, and there is a certain degree of uncertainty on the demand side. Overall, the short-term decline in crude oil prices is a squeezing effect of amplified bearish sentiment on both supply and demand sides. However, the future supply and demand fundamentals do not support the maintenance of low oil prices. It is expected that there is still room for upward movement after the adjustment of oil prices. On May 28th, international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $79.83 per barrel, an increase of $2.11 or 2.7% from last Friday. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $83.94 per barrel, up $1.06 or 1.3%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

In May 2024, Sinopec’s listed price for pure benzene increased by a total of 200 yuan/ton, with a current implementation of 9000 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 9000 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 8800 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 9003 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 9000 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 8800 yuan/ton.

In terms of the industrial chain, the overall pure benzene market has steadily increased this month, with market prices steadily rising. The overall increase in the first half of the month was limited, but by the end of the month, the supply of pure benzene in East China was tight, driving up the sentiment in the spot market. Sinopec raised its listing price to 9000 yuan/ton at the end of the month, once again boosting market sentiment. The mainstream ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene has also risen to 9000-9100 yuan/ton, and manufacturers have a strong attitude towards price support. The overall market atmosphere is strong.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. After entering 23 years, the hydrogenated benzene market has seen more ups and downs. In May, the market continued to decline for two consecutive months, while in July and August, it continued to rise for two consecutive months. The weekly K-bar chart shows that the hydrogenated benzene market has seen more gains than losses in recent times.

In terms of supply, in the first half of May, the production of hydrogenated benzene enterprises was relatively low, and the supply was slightly tight. Later, as market prices continued to rise, some maintenance companies resumed work. In the latter half of the year, the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises rebounded, and the supply of hydrogenated benzene remained stable. In terms of demand, downstream demand has performed well recently, driving the heating up of the pure benzene industry chain. Overall, boosted by the overall rise of the industrial chain, the hydrogenated benzene market has maintained a stable, medium to strong trend in recent times.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA66 market has experienced a significant decline. According to data monitoring from Business Society, on May 28th, the domestic benchmark price of PA66 mixture was 21833.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -4.66% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

On the cost side:

Recently, the supply of adipic acid has increased, putting some pressure on the supply side. At the same time, in terms of diamine, overseas giant NVIDIA’s pricing fell by 1500 yuan/ton in June. Coupled with the previous high price of hexanediamine, the focus of the future market may fall; Overall, the support of costs for the PA66 market is not strong.

In terms of supply:

Recently, the operating rate of domestic PA66 production lines has remained stable with minor fluctuations. The overall industry load is around 70%. The production of the enterprise is stable, and the accumulation of inventory is average. Suppliers have generally lowered their factory prices, weakening their support.

In terms of demand:

Recently, textile, electrical, and modification enterprises have been following a routine in stocking and consumption, with most of their procurement operations being focused on production. The main force of on-site trading maintains a strong demand for follow-up, and the buyer camp is resistant to high priced goods. The demand side has average support for PA66.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the spot price of PA66 has fallen from a high level. The raw material market has seen a decline in support for the cost side of PA66. PA66 enterprise has a horizontal load and stable supply. The demand follow-up of terminal enterprises is average. It is expected that the PA66 market will continue to operate weakly in the future.

The market for ortho xylene rose in May

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of May 27th, the price of ortho xylene was 8400 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.20% compared to May 1st, when the price of ortho xylene was 8300 yuan/ton. Supported by the industrial chain, the ortho xylene market fluctuated and rose in May.

The price of mixed xylene first fell and then rose, and the cost support for adjacent xylene increased in May; The price of phthalic anhydride has significantly increased, and the demand for ortho xylene has increased to support it; The supply of ortho xylene is tight, and the price of ortho xylene increased in May.

The price of raw material mixed with xylene first fell and then rose

According to the mixed xylene commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of May 27th, the quoted price of mixed xylene was 7680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.13% from the price of mixed xylene on May 1st, which was 7670 yuan/ton. Crude oil prices have fluctuated and fallen, and the cost support for mixed xylene has weakened. In late May, the maintenance of mixed xylene equipment resulted in a decrease in the supply of mixed xylene, which provided significant support for the rise of mixed xylene. As a result, the price of mixed xylene stopped falling and rose.

Downstream phthalic anhydride market has seen a significant increase

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products by Business Society, as of May 27th, the quoted price of phthalic anhydride was 8187.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.06% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride on May 1st, which was 7720 yuan/ton. The price of raw material ortho xylene has increased, and the cost of phthalic anhydride has increased; In the latter half of the year, the concentrated maintenance of the phthalic anhydride plant has reduced its capacity utilization rate to below 60%, resulting in a decrease in supply and supporting the rise in phthalic anhydride prices, leading to a significant increase in phthalic anhydride prices.

Future prospects

According to analysts from Business Society’s adjacent xylene data, in terms of cost, the price of mixed xylene first fell and then rose, and the cost support for adjacent xylene increased; In terms of supply and demand, the price of phthalic anhydride has risen, and the tightening of ortho benzene supply has increased demand support, leading to increased support for the rise of ortho benzene. Overall, the supply and demand support is increasing, and it is expected that the benzene market will rise in the future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price trend of cryolite in Henan region remained stable this week (5.20-5.24). As of May 24th, the average market price in Henan region was 7550 yuan/ton, which is unchanged compared to the average price of 7550 yuan/ton on May 20th. The price remained unchanged during the week.

This week, the ice crystal market continued to remain stable, and enterprise ice crystal quotations remained unchanged. Upstream fluorite prices continue to operate strongly, with strong raw material prices, putting greater pressure on the cost of cryolite. However, downstream manufacturers have a strong resistance to high priced cryolite, and their enthusiasm for entering the market is average. They mainly rely on demand, resulting in weak market trading. The downstream market dominates, and there is a clear game on the market. Therefore, despite the strong raw material prices, most cryolite manufacturers still offer stable prices. As of May 24th, the ex factory quotation for cryolite in Shandong region is 7000-8500 yuan/ton; The factory quotation for cryolite in Henan region is between 7200-8000 yuan/ton.

The upstream fluorite market remains stable and watchful, with an average market price of 3806.25 yuan/ton as of May 24th, which is unchanged from the price of 3806.25 yuan/ton as of May 20th. Backward mines will continue to be phased out, and in terms of new mines, mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, recent national departments have issued price inquiries to rectify fluorite mines, and some mines have undergone safety hazard inspections. The progress of resuming work and production in the fluorite market is slow, and it is difficult to increase the production of fluorite. The supply of goods on site is tight, and fluorite prices are operating steadily.

Market forecast: The upstream of cryolite is operating at a high level, and there is significant cost pressure on cryolite. The market mentality is having a positive impact, and downstream demand is flat, and there is resistance to cryolite prices. Enterprise shipments are limited, but in the face of continuous upstream price increases, cryolite enterprises may face pressure to increase. It is expected that the cryolite market will continue to consolidate in the future, and prices may slightly increase. In the future, attention will be paid to upstream price changes and downstream follow-up.

Recently (from May 1st to May 23rd), the market price of butadiene rubber has slightly increased. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of May 23rd, the price of butadiene rubber in the East China region was 13260 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.41% from 13450 yuan/ton on April 22nd. The high price of raw material butadiene has fallen, and the cost support for butadiene rubber has weakened; The production of butadiene rubber remains at a low level; Downstream production of all steel tires has slightly increased, with on-demand procurement of butadiene rubber, resulting in a slight increase in the price of butadiene rubber.

Recently (from May 1st to May 23rd), the high price of butadiene has fallen, and the cost support for butadiene rubber has slightly weakened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 23, the price of butadiene was 11150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.80% from 11712 yuan/ton on May 1.

Recently (from May 1st to May 23rd), multiple sets of butadiene rubber plants have been shut down for maintenance. As of late May, the production of butadiene rubber in China has dropped to around 45%.

Demand side: In the near future (5.1-5.23), downstream tire production has slightly increased, providing rigid support for butadiene rubber. It is understood that as of mid May, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 790%; The operating load of all steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises has slightly increased to 6.80%; Downstream suppliers tend to stock up on demand for polybutadiene rubber.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Business Society believe that the price of raw material butadiene will slightly decrease, and the cost support for butadiene rubber will slightly weaken compared to the previous period; The production of butadiene rubber has once again declined, and the market supply is tight; Currently, downstream tire companies have seen a slight increase in production, providing strong support for the demand for butadiene rubber. Overall, the butadiene rubber market has remained strong in the near future under low production support.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of May 22, 2024, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 8033 yuan/ton. Compared with May 17 (reference price of n-butanol was 8133 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.23%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, it can be seen that this week (5.18-5.22), the overall market for n-butanol in Shandong, China, showed a downward trend. During the week, the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market in Shandong region weakened, and downstream demand for n-butanol was average, resulting in a lack of overall selling compared to the previous period. The pace of shipments from the main factories of n-butanol has slowed down, and the overall market price has slightly adjusted downwards, with an adjustment of around 100 yuan/ton. As of May 22nd, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong region is based on around 8000-8100 yuan/ton.

Market price situation of n-butanol

Region/ Product/ May 22nd

Shandong region/ N-butanol/ 8000-8100

North China region/ N-butanol/ 8050-8100

South China region/ N-butanol/ 8300-8400

East China region/ N-butanol/ 8250-8350

Upstream: On May 22nd, the benchmark price of propylene for Shengyishe was 6882.60 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.21% compared to the beginning of this month (6800.60 yuan/ton).

Future analysis

This week, the overall production capacity utilization rate of n-butanol has not changed much, and the overall supply side of the market has remained stable. The downstream demand side is mostly rigid procurement, with average support from the demand side. The n-butanol data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mostly adjust narrowly, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand news.

Last week (May 13-19, 2024), downstream demand continued to be flat, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. The raw material dissolution pulp market was generally stable, and the pressure on viscose short fibers was weak, maintaining stable operation, and prices remained stable. The downstream cotton yarn market has maintained stable production, with some models experiencing shortages. However, the overall market is still mainly focused on purchasing in demand, with no obvious signs of improvement on the demand side. Downstream yarn factories are mainly consuming inventory, and the release of new orders on site is limited. Viscose short fiber manufacturers are mainly executing shipments, and the overall market sales speed is stable.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, last week (May 13-19, 2024), the price of viscose short fibers remained weak and stable. As of May 19th, the factory price for 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber in China is 13180 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price.

Supply side: Last week (May 13-19, 2024), the operating rate of the adhesive short fiber industry remained stable, and production remained stable. The overall market supply has slightly decreased. The inventory of various manufacturers is still at a low level, and there is currently no inventory pressure. There is some positive support on the supply side.

In terms of demand: downstream people mainly execute orders in the cotton yarn market, with little price change. Downstream enterprises have average purchasing power, with multi-dimensional support and on-demand procurement. Currently, the new round of signing has ended, and the operators have entered a period of inventory consumption.

In terms of cost: Last week (May 13-19, 2024), the market price of raw material dissolution slurry remained stable, while the market price of auxiliary material liquid alkali and sulfuric acid remained stable, and the cost center remained stable. At present, the production of dissolved slurry in Hunan and Shandong facilities in China is around 7700 yuan/ton, and the price remains stable. Actual orders are negotiated.

Downstream cotton yarn market

Last week (May 13-19, 2024), downstream cotton yarn saw weak consolidation, with the market mainly executing orders. Some manufacturers adjusted prices narrowly, resulting in a slight decline in overall prices. Overall shipments were average, inventory remained stable, and demand was weak. Downstream demand did not show a significant improvement, and actual transactions on the market were limited. As of May 19th, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first-class) was 17225 yuan/ton, which is the same as the previous week’s price.

Future Market Forecast:

The upstream raw material market is stable, with low inventory from various manufacturers and stable production and sales. Downstream enterprises have average purchasing power, and they mainly deliver early orders. The overall market sales speed may continue to be stable. The replenishment cycle for downstream yarn enterprises is approaching, and the focus of viscose short fiber manufacturers is mainly on signing and shipping. Business Society analysts predict that the viscose short fiber market will remain stable in the short term, with market prices generally stable. The cotton yarn market will continue to operate weakly and steadily, with viscose short fiber prices expected to be between 13000-13200 yuan/ton.

Market analysis for this week

The magnesium ingot market remained stable this week. The market is in a stalemate, and due to cost reasons, manufacturers are reluctant to sell at high prices. However, downstream users and intermediaries have not seen significant improvement in demand, and there is insufficient high-level transactions for magnesium ingots. It is difficult for prices to change significantly in the short term, and factory quotations remain stable for the time being. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 17th, the average price of magnesium ingots in the domestic market was 18466.67 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week.

In terms of supply and demand

At present, some manufacturers in the market are experiencing losses due to relatively low prices, and their willingness to ship is low. Some manufacturers are shipping normally, and inventory pressure is relatively low. The overall market supply and demand pattern is relatively loose. Magnesium plants are operating at a relatively high level with sufficient supply, but the high and stable raw material prices provide strong cost support, making it difficult for magnesium prices to decline. However, downstream users lack the ability to accept high prices and only maintain basic replenishment, resulting in limited fluctuation space for magnesium prices.

In terms of raw materials

This week, the market price of ferrosilicon in Ningxia was between 6900-7000 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.83% compared to last week. Ferrosilicon manufacturers have seen higher profits, increased enthusiasm for resuming production, and increased production. Coupled with the centralized procurement of steel mills through bidding this week, corporate sentiment has improved. In the short term, the domestic spot market for ferrosilicon may continue to be strong.

This week, Orchid Charcoal is temporarily running steadily. Although the prices of raw materials have declined, due to the lack of inventory in many blue charcoal enterprises, some enterprises need to queue up for loading, and the market supply is temporarily tight. Blue charcoal enterprises have obvious price support sentiment. As of May 17th, the mainstream prices of small and medium-sized materials in the Shenmu market are 880-960 yuan/ton, and the coke surface is 610-680 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of small and medium-sized materials in the Fugu market is 890-1000 yuan/ton, and the coke surface is 660-700 yuan/ton.

Future Market Forecast

Due to cost support, many manufacturers are offering higher prices. But downstream users are resistant to high prices, and the upward trend of magnesium prices is weak. Overall, magnesium prices are in a dilemma, and it is expected that the short-term magnesium ingot market will continue to operate relatively steadily, with narrow fluctuations within the price range.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 17th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6570 yuan/ton, which is a decrease of 1.20% compared to the reference average price of 6650 yuan/ton on May 13th.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic phosphoric acid market prices have fallen this week. Downstream on-demand procurement, with relatively stable demand. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has slightly decreased, with insufficient cost support. The price of thermal phosphoric acid follows the trend of raw materials and tends to be weak. The wet process phosphoric acid market is steadily declining, with slight consolidation and operation. As of May 17th, the market price for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6350-6900 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6300-7000 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. The market price of yellow phosphorus has slightly decreased this week. At present, the trading situation in the yellow phosphorus field is still good, with manufacturers mainly issuing early orders and controllable inventory, while yellow phosphorus enterprises mainly raise prices. Downstream inquiries are more positive, procurement is more cautious, and demand is mainly for immediate needs. Overall, the upstream and downstream are relatively deadlocked. As of now, the market quotation for yellow phosphorus is around 22500-23000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

Market for raw material phosphate rock. This week, the domestic phosphate ore market remained stable and organized. The current inquiry atmosphere in the phosphate ore field is mild, and the pace of phosphate ore shipments in some areas is clear, with a good mentality among the operators. As of May 17th, the domestic market price for 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1030-1100 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s phosphoric acid analyst believes that the recent trend of the phosphoric acid market has been downward. The raw material yellow phosphorus is weakly sorted and operated, and the phosphoric acid market maintains a buying up and not buying down mentality, with cautious market operations as the main focus. At present, there is no positive support in the market, and it is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market will continue to operate in a wait-and-see manner.