I. Price trend

Since the beginning of December, ethanol prices have climbed sharply, influenced by factors such as lower operating rates and strong downstream demand. Baskets Nike According to data from the Business Society monitoring, as of December 15, the consumption of ethanol from the beginning of December, 5750 Yuan/ton rose to 6161.11 yuan/ton, rose 411.11 yuan/ton, or 7.15%, the average price breakthrough 6000 mark, set a new high since late December 2014! Nearly 3 months since mid-September, edible ethanol climbed slowly, rising 1022.22 yuan/ton, up to 19.89%!
Second, the market analysis

Industry chain: Upstream, business community monitoring of edible ethanol production of raw materials to corn and cassava mainly. By the farmers reluctant price, deep processing demand, trade, such as the main food and other favorable support, corn market prices overall to maintain a small upward trend, according to the business community monitoring data show that in the past 1 months, the average price of corn rose 28.57 yuan/ton to 1673.93 yuan/ton, or 1.73%. The more than 40 days of cassava from mid-November to the end of December were ushered in the lean period, low domestic inventory, the root cause is that China as a raw material for ethanol production of cassava mainly imports, while the major importers in Vietnam and Thailand in the early November to mid-December this nearly 40 days, the labor force to harvest Rice, The cassava harvest was temporarily sidelined. So in the last 1 months the domestic average price of cassava rose 20-60 yuan/ton unequal also in the sense.

The downstream end of ethyl acetate, one of the main downstream products of edible ethanol, was lower in overall factory operating rate during the last 1 months. Raw material acetic acid and edible ethanol prices are rising and downstream just need support, and other factors, east China and North China, the average price of ethyl acetate rose 950 yuan/ton to 7350 yuan/ton, or 14.8% The average price of ethyl acetate in South China rose by 1250 yuan/ton to 7850 yuan/ton, or 18.9%. Another demand surge in the consumption of ethanol large buyers are wineries, on the one hand from the early days of the holiday liquor stock, on the other hand, the winter came, drinking liquor cold habit also led to rising demand.

Products: Since December, the average price of edible ethanol in east China rose 550 yuan/ton to 6400 yuan/ton, or 9.4%. The average consumption of ethanol in north China rose 450 yuan/ton to 6200 yuan/ton, or 7.83%. The average consumption of ethanol in southern China rose 150 yuan/ton to 6100 yuan/ton, or 2.52%. The reason for the increase in ethanol consumption is: 1. nike air max 90 Starting from the beginning of December, under the influence of a new round of environmental protection and planned parking overhaul, some ethanol plants in east China and north China are in reduced load production or discontinued, and the overall installation rate has fallen to about 68%. nike air max air 2. Some ethanol factories are converting. is driven by the price of ethyl acetate, some ethanol factories, the proportion of ethanol exports decreased, more production in their own acetic acid ethyl ester. Some ethanol plants have been switching to the production of fuel ethanol for most of the time because of the strong demand for orders. All of these factors have led to a decrease in the supply of ethanol, which is still strong in the short term as demand is booming downstream.

Third, future forecast

Looking ahead, business analysts believe that the consumption of ethanol raw corn short-term prices to maintain high volatility, the median line with the Spring Festival before the farmers selling will increase, corn prices have to fall back demand. In late December, cassava is expected to come down with a price drop as market supplies increase. Canada Goose Ontario The next week, the early parking overhaul of the ethanol plant basically resumed driving, if no additional temporary parking, the overall operating rate is expected to rise. But the recent surge in demand is still a major factor in the short-term support for higher prices for edible ethanol.

December domestic acetone average price rose sharply at the beginning of the month, domestic enterprises factory price price of 6416.67 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of 7305.56 yuan / ton, the month rose 13.85%. The current prices for the same period last year rose 107.74%.

Two, analysis and review

Products: in December the domestic market as a whole was sharply higher, the first half of the market continue to rise, and hit a new high this year, the second half of the high office. At the beginning of the month of benzene with propylene raw materials prices rose sharply, due to cost pressures, acetone plant half successive raised ex factory price of 900 yuan / ton. In addition, the port inventory is not high, and the stock concentration, industry mentality is good, shippers offer continued high. The second half, due to the large range of haze weather and environmental restrictions, terminal factories were forced to stop or decline in demand. In addition, some profit shipments positive, the market shock consolidation. East China acetone to discuss the market price in the 7100-7200 yuan / ton, the surrounding area of Yanshan to discuss the price of 7300-7400 yuan / ton, Southern China area to discuss the price in 7300-7500 yuan / ton.

The industrial chain: in December, Sinopec benzene Guapaijia were at 5, 7, 9 days each increase 300 yuan / ton, 14, increase 200 yuan / ton, a total increase of 1100 yuan / ton to 7700 yuan / ton, up sharply, prices rose to highs. The reasons for the rise of Europe and Asia, outside the whole benzene skyrocketing, the Korean market led by sharply, oil prices continue to rise high consolidation. However, after the late, domestic benzene market prices sharply lower, 26, Sinopec listing price down 300 yuan / ton to 7400 yuan / ton, affected by the haze weather, the downstream industry chain operating rate fell sharply, in some areas even stop down the load floor production, bad mood strong, the price decline.

In December, the overall market turnover atmosphere to improve raw material prices again, sprint high, the highest price month break 8000 yuan / ton mark, up to 8100 yuan / ton, in crude oil is favorable, propylene downstream quickly opened rose pattern, to discuss the market actively promote consolidation. The second half but by the fog, environmental protection and other aspects of propylene transport limited supply circulation is slow, part of the downstream factories to limit production shutdown, weakening demand for propylene, and even lower prices continue to rise, propylene is weak, the market trend of high order.

Three, market forecast

The acetone manufacturers losses, manufacturers cost pressures, the subsequent deposit may have reduced the negative. And next month, imports have reduced expectations, the overall supply will be reduced. But next month coincides with the Spring Festival, the downstream demand is difficult to increase. Acetone market consolidation operation is expected next month.

this month DOP market price volatility, price change operation mode obviously. The market rose more driven by raw materials of octanol. As of the end of North China DOP valuation of 8300 yuan / ton, Shandong to discuss the range of 8200-8300 yuan / ton, Zhejiang to discuss the range of 8400-8500 yuan / ton, compared with the domestic manufacturers at the beginning of the month the average price of 8492 yuan / tons, a decline of 1.28% months, nearly 3 months rose to 14.39%.

Market analysis:

Dynamic device: Dongying Yimei month device in normal operation, daily output of more than and 300 tons; Shandong Hongxin month equipment normal operation; normal Qilu plasticizer plant, Nissan 700 tons; the normal operation of Zhejiang Weboo device; no parking device industry high Teruo production plan.

December: industry chain upstream raw material market is octanol high concussion, December propylene ferocious rally, successfully pulled to 8000 yuan / ton level, octanol occasion hike, although the increase is only 500 yuan, but the DOP long-term at a loss situation, the cost is higher, to avoid loss of space amplification, manufacturers is also follow up. But the rise in time and space is limited, a propylene drop, resulting octanol have lowered the long-term decline in the state, phthalic anhydride, and the decline is enlarged, the upstream conduction decreased constantly. On the other hand, the demand side is weak, near the end of the year, demand a large decline, coupled with environmental protection does not collide, downstream of the PVC soft products production is not prosperous situation worsened, the demand for DOP but just, almost stagnant, facing the lack of interest spot situation, mentality pressure intensified. Post market bearish on manufacturers and holding the goods for shipment and shipment actively, reduce resistance, generally low, leading to market decline amplification.

Industry: December plasticizer industry chain, the overall market high consolidation, the market is expected in January downward shock.

Market forecast:

In December, the domestic DOP market is still weak trend, with the focus on the phenomenon of low. The terminal demand is difficult to improve, inquiry and purchase the phenomenon of poor, the manufacturers take the goods in high resistance situation, mentality continued pressure, coupled with raw material manufacturers and octanol down, but also increased the negative expectation. Market outlook, demand outlook is subject to change, and manufacturers and shippers will ship based, but based on the demand is difficult to improve, there are low risk, however, manufacturers still in the vicinity of the cost line, is expected to more than yindie.

Environmental protection is an important factor affecting the present price of glyphosate

Since 2014, glyphosate prices continued to fall, from the highest 33 thousand yuan / ton this year fell to the lowest 16 thousand and 900 yuan / ton, breakeven basic loss of the whole industry, leading enterprises. Glyphosate domestic production capacity by 2009 more than 100 tons of the highest current reduced to about 900 thousand tons, according to Societe Generale Securities and grassroots research to understand, in the normal production of more than a dozen companies at present, industry supply situation improved significantly.

The fourth quarter of this year to enter the traditional peak season since glyphosate, downstream demand has improved; and the upstream of yellow phosphorus, glycine and other raw materials prices to support the formation of product prices, glyphosate prices continue to rise.

In addition, if the subsequent second batch of central environmental inspectors assigned to the big Sichuan, Hubei Province, the production of glyphosate, or have a certain impact on the supply of glyphosate.

The price of glyphosate is expected to continue to rise, promote the enterprises to enhance profitability. During the traditional sales season, with the domestic environmental enforcement efforts continue to overweight, the main raw material supply tight, prices are expected to continue to rise, the glyphosate product spreads widened, driven enterprises greater performance flexibility.

Tupon is a global alternative Herbicide The development of the leading companies, the development of five butachlor mefluidide has become the global water and paddy China Herbicide The chief products. According to the company technical director Wang Chunlin said that in the past 20 years, to promote the Herbicide The most important factor in the rapid development of the market is: GM crops, weed resistance and raising the level of economic development. Among them, the level of economic development and Herbicide The development is directly related to labor costs.

The creation of new compounds to increase the difficulty

According to the latest research data Phillips McDougall, discovery, development and the average development cost of 1 effective components of a pesticide registration amounted to $286 million; successfully registered 1 new products average screening of 160 thousand new compounds; from 1 new active ingredients for the first time into its IPO took an average of 11.3 years. The 3 data over the past 256 million dollars, 140 thousand compounds and 9.8 years respectively increased 11.7%, 14.1% and 15.3%. in pesticide R & D costs to a new high, increasing the difficulty of the listing of new products.

Guo Jingquan believes that the herbicide discovery difficulty is decided by many factors. First of all, multinational companies invest in the development of herbicide reduction, this is mainly due to the impact of the listing of genetically modified crops. Secondly, the new standard increased the threshold of pesticides. He said that the development of a new compound, not only to ensure its activity and efficacy, also requires the environmental safety. The toxicology research is very complicated, not only including acute toxicity and chronic toxicity data (teratogenic, carcinogenic and mutagenic), reproductive toxicity and endocrine disruption. Multinationals tend to eliminate many very high activity compounds but with environmental and human risks. Therefore the investment reduction and raising the threshold has brought many new challenges for the innovation of herbicides.

chemical industry recently, domestic manufacturers offer overall octanol continued to rise, the focus of the market consolidation. Propylene trend slightly stabilized, the goods will remain cautious as octanol.

In November 23rd, DOP wide market in North China area of Tianjin higher level spot supply is tight, the raw material of phthalic anhydride crazy increase, supporting manufacturers very price, higher center of gravity. At present, the market reference price of 8600 yuan / ton to discuss. Shandong Hongxin phthalic anhydride plant all the normal operation, the spot is less, manufacturers today quoting neighbor phthalic anhydride implementation of 8500 yuan / ton, the mixed anhydride method offer 8200 yuan / ton. The normal operation of Ningbo AEKYUNG annual production capacity of 100 thousand tons of DOP device, the spot inventory is tight, today DOP manufacturers offer foreign implementation of 8800 yuan / ton, and not limited to discuss. Qilu plasticizer DOP equipment normal operation, inventory is tight. DOP foreign manufacturers offer 8650 yuan / ton, the real single talk. The rising trend of DOP market in Jiangsu area, low level of supply of raw materials in stock, raise deposit octanol boost, stimulate the very price, mainstream manufacturers closed businesses, pull up. At present, the market reference price of 8600-8650 yuan / ton from.

At present, the domestic market price of PA downward trend, the wait-and-see atmosphere, downstream inquiry atmosphere slowed, the turnover declined all focus areas. Although fewer goods manufacturers support price of phthalic anhydride dimensional emotions, but from the downstream pressure increasing, the terminal demand has not improved substantially, factory shipments gradually obvious resistance. Octanol raw material prices continued to rise, the DOP market has strong support in the cost surface.

Afternoon, the cost and demand game situation continues, is expected to offer loose risk increased, and the situation is difficult to avoid the tendency of low-end focus gradually.

In view of black commodities to capacity when soaring performance, once the government began to production in the chemical industry, the price will be pulled up sharply PTA.

technical analysis

From the perspective of technology analysis of PAT1701 contract after nearly half a year of adjustment, prices will gradually converge, to get out of the direction. Once the supply and demand changes may occur, the market broke.

“Statistics” Chinese research and development prospects of PTA industry, PTA industry in June 2016 China PTA plant capacity closed state of more than 14 million tons / year, close to the PTA capacity of 1/3. As of June 2016, the total production capacity of more than 50 million tons / year PTA unit, the industry average operating rate of 65%, with the cost and technical advantages of the equipment operating rate is still more than 90%.

Technical progress, approval authority, economic stimulus, credit easing is an important cause of the explosive growth of productivity. Because of the fierce competition, since 2014, China’s PTA industry has a large capacity while shutting down production, on the other side of the new strange phenomenon continues to mount the device put into operation.

[comment] Gade chemicals chemical last week, India outside the castor oil prices, domestic castor oil market demand, sales, inventory, exchange rate decline, the majority of manufacturers to wait and see, castor oil price stability. Castor oil is quoted in the mainstream 11000-12000 yuan / ton.

In December 15th, the normal operation of Inner Mongolia Tianrun castor Development Co. Ltd. India industrial production device, castor oil’s price for 11000 yuan / ton (including tax), normal construction, sales, price stability. Zibo Zhoucun Ming Tung Chemical castor oil price stability, industrial grade castor oil (grade one) ex factory price of 11000 yuan / ton (including tax), the weak market demand, sales, inventory amount. Nanjing Qianyue chemical refining level of castor oil price stability, price is 9600 yuan / ton, the domestic castor oil price stability, sales in general. Wenshui the Yellow River County Oil Company Limited industrial grade refined castor oil price is 11300 yuan / ton, manufacturers of normal production, sales, price stability. Xinji City Han Sen plant oil, castor oil prices remain stable, the price of a product of refined net 11600 yuan / ton, factory sales, less inventory, normal production. Guangzhou south of castor oil prices, manufacturers sales, the market in general, low inventory, disk prices, a refined product price 11600 yuan / ton.

Recently, the domestic market price stability of castor oil, castor oil, domestic manufacturers weekend sales in general, the market demand is not good, because the exchange rate falls outside the prices, some manufacturers have raised the price of the intention, the market outlook is expected to castor oil prices rose steadily.

Technical specification of China “cosmetic safety” (2015 Edition) mentioned, talcum powder Chinese name for hydrated magnesium silicate, suitable for powder products in children under the age of 3 to use the label must be marked using the conditions and precautions for the powder should be kept away from children’s nose and mouth, and stone cotton was not detected.

Although still not enough evidence that the talcum powder, and ovarian cancer but about Johnson baby powder within three years of penalty has sparked concerns over the safety of talc powder. As of now the information search for someone’s powder, Johnson is not a recall plan or frame.