According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic butadiene market in May first fell and then rose. From May 1st to 31st, the domestic butadiene market price fell from 11712 yuan/ton and then rose to 11875 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.39% during the cycle, the maximum amplitude of 7.10%, and a year-on-year increase of 78.84%.

In the first half of the month, downstream demand followed up after the holiday, and spot resources were slightly tight, with strong support from supplier prices. In addition, there were many premium transactions from northern bidding sources, which boosted the spot market. But recently, the prices of external markets have fallen, and there have been rumors of low-priced transactions, which has affected the weak mentality of market merchants, resulting in low intention prices for inquiries and a stalemate in short-term supply and demand performance.

In mid month, some production enterprises in certain regions saw an increase in export sales, while merchants had clear expectations for domestic production growth in the later period. The downward trend in the market intensified the cautious attitude of downstream inquiries, resulting in a weak transaction atmosphere and further affecting the downward pressure on supplier prices.

In the latter half of the month, the domestic butadiene market was volatile, with a slight weakening after the market rose. However, as the supplier’s supply of goods is replenished through export, the support from the supply side has weakened. In addition, downstream inquiries are more cautious, and the market transaction atmosphere has slightly weakened.

As the end of the month approaches, production enterprises have repeatedly raised their factory quotations, leading to a strong upward trend in the domestic butadiene market. The wide rise in downstream synthetic rubber has also brought a significant boost to the butadiene market.

On the cost side, international crude oil prices showed a downward trend in May, and there was positive progress in the ceasefire negotiations between Palestine and Israel in the early days. The US Energy Information Agency also lowered its global demand forecast, but Saudi Arabia’s view on the demand outlook has improved. In mid month, the market was concerned about the pressure of high interest rates on the economy and demand, but some economic data improved, and the instability of the geopolitical situation remained, with international oil prices falling first and then rising. In the latter half of the year, the geopolitical situation continued to ease, and market concerns about the economic and demand prospects were difficult to resolve. Coupled with the increase in US commercial crude oil inventories, the overall international oil price continued to decline.

In terms of naphtha: The market for naphtha has bottomed out and rebounded. The gap in terminal demand is concentrated in the direction of local refining and restructuring, with refineries purchasing essential goods and relatively tight supply. The relevant gasoline market has not followed suit, suppressing market sentiment. The naphtha market continues to rise but is hindered, consolidating at high levels. At present, merchants are resisting high priced sources of goods, refineries are actively raising prices, and market activity is decreasing. The cost of butadiene is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, the listed price of butadiene by various sales companies of Sinopec has been raised twice to 12000 yuan/ton. The 30000 ton/year butadiene unit of Liaoyang Petrochemical is operating normally, with 400 tons of goods being sold through bidding for export at a bottom price of 11000 yuan/ton; The transaction price is 11380 yuan/ton.. The supply of butadiene is influenced by favorable factors. The 160000 ton/year butadiene extraction unit of Fushun Petrochemical is operating stably, with a bidding price of 11100 yuan/ton for 180 tons of goods for export; The transaction price is 11300-11400 yuan/ton.

On the demand side, driven by the continuous increase in butadiene prices and the favorable futures market, the synthetic rubber market has shown a broad upward trend, while the enthusiasm for speculation in the spot market has increased. The demand for butadiene is influenced by favorable factors.

In terms of external trading: As of the close on May 30th, the price of Asian butadiene remained stable: FOB South Korea reported $1335-1345 per ton; China CFR News 1365-1375 USD/ton; The external price of butadiene in Europe remains stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at $1145-1155 per ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 1070-1080 euros/ton.

In the future market, it is expected that some devices will restart, and production may increase in the near future. Although the price of synthetic rubber in the downstream has increased, most downstream profits are inverted, and demand still needs to be followed up. Business Society Butadiene Analyst predicts that the domestic butadiene market will mainly consolidate after the rise.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic cyclohexanone market rose in May. From May 1st to 31st, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market increased from 9602 yuan/ton to 9906 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.52%, with a year-on-year increase of 6.95%.

In the first half of the month, the domestic price of cyclohexanone stabilized and operated, with high fluctuations in pure benzene after the holiday, and the cost pressure remained unchanged. Downstream chemical fibers and solvents are mostly purchased on demand, with stable and abundant spot supply in the market. High priced shipments are hindered, and the market is undergoing consolidation and operation.

In mid month, there is an expectation of a recovery in the domestic cyclohexanone market. The raw material pure benzene is operating strongly, resulting in increased cost pressure. Downstream purchases are made on demand, and the market situation is consolidating

In the latter half of the month, the domestic cyclohexanone market saw a narrow rise, with raw material pure benzene fluctuating at high levels and significant cost pressure. Downstream chemical fiber procurement was concentrated, and the atmosphere for cyclohexanone transactions was still good. Low price offers gradually decreased, and the focus of transactions increased.

On the cost side, the price of pure benzene in the domestic market has risen significantly, and the short-term supply tension in the market is difficult to change. At the end of the month, overseas factories caught fire, and the impact on pure benzene production is still uncertain. However, for the long-term scarce domestic pure benzene market, it still stimulates prices to continue to rise. As of May 31st, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shengyishe is 9075.50 yuan/ton. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price trend of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is influenced by positive factors.

On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream production of caprolactam, which is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. The price of caprolactam continues to rise, while upstream pure benzene prices continue to rise. The cost pressure of caprolactam has increased, and enterprise quotations continue to rise. However, downstream high priced purchases of caprolactam and PA6 conventional spinning chips are gradually becoming cautious, and the atmosphere of high priced transactions is slightly easing. The demand for cyclohexanone has a mixed impact.

In the future market forecast, the raw materials are operating at a high level, and the cost pressure is relatively high. Downstream demand is average, and the spot supply and demand of cyclohexanone are weakly balanced. Business Society cyclohexanone analysts predict that the domestic cyclohexanone market will tend to consolidate at a high level in the short term.

In May, the domestic market for trichloromethane saw a significant increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 31, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2920 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.42% from 2770 yuan/ton in early May.

The price of raw material methanol has fluctuated higher, the price range of liquid chlorine has been consolidated, and the cost of trichloromethane continues to support. Downstream R22, with the arrival of high temperature weather, the demand for air conditioning maintenance has increased; In addition, there is some support for export orders from enterprises in the region in the second half of the month; The overall market for trichloromethane is on the rise.

In May, the production of domestic methane chloride plants increased, gradually increasing from 7.1% in early May to around 7.9% at the end of the month.

In May, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated and rose, while the price range of liquid chlorine stabilized. The cost of trichloromethane continued to support. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of May 31st, the spot price of methanol was 2761 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.15% from the beginning of the month’s 2651 yuan/ton, and a decrease of 8.55% from the high point of 3020 yuan/ton in the cycle; At the end of May, the price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region was 500 yuan/ton, a significant increase from 300 yuan/ton in the middle of the month, and remained unchanged from 500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

In May, with the arrival of high temperature weather, the downstream refrigerant R22 has increased the demand for air conditioning maintenance, providing some necessary support for trichloromethane.

Business Society methane chloride data analyst believes that the cost of trichloromethane continues to support; The demand for downstream refrigerant R22 has increased to some extent, but the production is still at a low level. The support for demand for trichloromethane in the later stage is limited, and it is expected that the trichloromethane market will mainly narrow in the later stage.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of acetic acid fell first and then rose this week. On May 31st, the average market price of acetic acid was 3150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared to the price of 3200 yuan/ton on May 25th, with an overall decrease of 1.56%.

This week, the acetic acid market first fell and then rose. At the beginning of the week, the inventory of enterprises continued to be high, and the intention of manufacturers to arrange inventory continued. The quotation for acetic acid continued to decline. In the later part of the week, some acetic acid factories in the site shut down, and the inventory of enterprises decreased. At the same time, the intention of manufacturers to increase prices increased. At the end of the month, some downstream long-term purchases increased, and the shipment of enterprises was active, leading to an upward trend in acetic acid prices.

As of May 31st, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:

Region/ May 24th/ May 31st/ Rise and fall

South China region/ 3225 yuan/ton/ 3125 yuan/ton/ -100

North China region/ 3225 yuan/ton/ 3150 yuan/ton/ -75

Shandong region/ 3200 yuan/ton/ 3150 yuan/ton/ -50

Jiangsu region/ 3100 yuan/ton/ 3075 yuan/ton/ -25

Zhejiang region/ 3325 yuan/ton/ 3175 yuan/ton/ -50

The upstream raw material methanol market first rose and then fell. On May 31st, the average price in the domestic market was 2761.67 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 0.42% compared to the price of 2750.00 yuan/ton on May 25th. As the end of the month approaches, the market supply increases, and downstream purchasing sentiment is weak. The main demand for entry into the market is rigid, with insufficient demand support. Methanol prices fluctuate and consolidate within a narrow range.

The downstream acetic anhydride market first fell and then rose. On May 31st, the factory price of acetic anhydride was 5437.50 yuan/ton, a 1.58% decrease compared to the price of 5525.00 yuan/ton on May 25th. The upstream acetic acid market is weak and consolidating, with insufficient cost support for acetic anhydride. At the same time, the supply of acetic anhydride market is sufficient, and downstream demand is the main demand. On exchange trading is limited, and the upstream market is driving the weak consolidation of acetic anhydride market.

In the future market forecast, the acetic acid analyst from Shengyishe believes that the main acetic acid factories on the market are currently undergoing maintenance, with no pressure on enterprise inventory and downstream purchases on demand. The sales pressure from manufacturers is still acceptable, and the market trading atmosphere is expected to improve. It is expected that the acetic acid market will continue to rise in the short term, and prices may fluctuate narrowly. In the future, attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.

1、 Price trend

This month, domestic methyl ethyl carbonate showed a slight downward trend overall. As of May 30th, the benchmark price of methyl ethyl carbonate in Shengyishe was 8333 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.19% compared to the beginning of this month (8433 yuan/ton). This month, the methyl ethyl carbonate industry has seen a significant increase in new developments and equipment construction, resulting in a low load under the pressure of losses.

Market quotations for carbonates

The mainstream price of methyl carbonate is 7800-8200 yuan/ton for acceptance delivery, 5000-5300 yuan/ton for ethylene carbonate, 7250-8250 yuan/ton for propylene carbonate, and 4550-5220 yuan/ton for battery grade dimethyl carbonate. The factors that affect price fluctuations, in addition to cost support, are still the main factors that suppress market trends, including supply and demand pressure and poor transmission of the industrial chain.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost

Dimethyl carbonate has been operating weakly and steadily this month. As of May 30th, the benchmark price of dimethyl carbonate for Shengyishe is 4133.33 yuan/ton, which is the same as the beginning of this month. The trend of raw material prices fluctuates, with average support from the cost side. Mainstream offers continue to remain stable, and traders remain cautious, with some offering discounts to promote shipments. Downstream market sentiment is not high, and actual orders are mostly based on on-demand procurement. The supply and demand relationship is not improving, and the market is not supported by favorable factors. The market is consolidating, and we are watching actual orders.

In terms of demand

According to data, the average price of domestic electrolytes in the first quarter of 2024 was 21000 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 54.15%; The gross profit was 1111.21 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 58.29%. At present, the price and profit level of electrolyte have entered the grinding stage. Electrolyte production enterprises continue to maintain a high operating rate and determine production based on sales.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Recently, the market for methyl ethyl carbonate has been operating weakly, with weak spot negotiations and negotiations for large orders at lower prices. In the near future, some maintenance equipment will be restarted, and the supply side will increase. The supplier intends to promote transactions mainly to alleviate inventory pressure. But currently, the overall demand side load is average, and the main downstream demand procurement is mainly based on rigid demand, with cautious bearish sentiment on the market. The trading market’s trading enthusiasm is not high, waiting for more news to be released. Business Society analysts predict that in the short term, domestic methyl ethyl carbonate will continue to adjust narrowly.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the hydrogenated benzene market fluctuated and rose in May 2024. The ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China was 8666.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 9066.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 4.62%.

Crude oil prices: Business Society crude oil analysts believe that the future crude oil supply and demand game will continue. On the supply side, the OPEC ministerial meeting will be held on June 1st, at which time the organization will discuss production reduction policies. Currently, the policy tends to continue the previous production reduction scale. In addition, countries such as Iraq and Kazakhstan have submitted compensatory production reduction plans for exceeding quotas, and Russia’s technical excess has also promised compensatory production reduction. There will not be too much change on the supply side in the future. From the demand side, future demand may have two sides. On the one hand, gasoline demand in the United States is expected to increase as the summer driving season begins. At the same time, China is currently implementing intensive economic stimulus measures, and there is also some potential for future demand. On the other hand, in the medium to long term, oil demand is still constrained by the high interest rate environment in the United States, and there is a certain degree of uncertainty on the demand side. Overall, the short-term decline in crude oil prices is a squeezing effect of amplified bearish sentiment on both supply and demand sides. However, the future supply and demand fundamentals do not support the maintenance of low oil prices. It is expected that there is still room for upward movement after the adjustment of oil prices. On May 28th, international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $79.83 per barrel, an increase of $2.11 or 2.7% from last Friday. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $83.94 per barrel, up $1.06 or 1.3%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

In May 2024, Sinopec’s listed price for pure benzene increased by a total of 200 yuan/ton, with a current implementation of 9000 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 9000 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 8800 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 9003 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 9000 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 8800 yuan/ton.

In terms of the industrial chain, the overall pure benzene market has steadily increased this month, with market prices steadily rising. The overall increase in the first half of the month was limited, but by the end of the month, the supply of pure benzene in East China was tight, driving up the sentiment in the spot market. Sinopec raised its listing price to 9000 yuan/ton at the end of the month, once again boosting market sentiment. The mainstream ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene has also risen to 9000-9100 yuan/ton, and manufacturers have a strong attitude towards price support. The overall market atmosphere is strong.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. After entering 23 years, the hydrogenated benzene market has seen more ups and downs. In May, the market continued to decline for two consecutive months, while in July and August, it continued to rise for two consecutive months. The weekly K-bar chart shows that the hydrogenated benzene market has seen more gains than losses in recent times.

In terms of supply, in the first half of May, the production of hydrogenated benzene enterprises was relatively low, and the supply was slightly tight. Later, as market prices continued to rise, some maintenance companies resumed work. In the latter half of the year, the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises rebounded, and the supply of hydrogenated benzene remained stable. In terms of demand, downstream demand has performed well recently, driving the heating up of the pure benzene industry chain. Overall, boosted by the overall rise of the industrial chain, the hydrogenated benzene market has maintained a stable, medium to strong trend in recent times.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA66 market has experienced a significant decline. According to data monitoring from Business Society, on May 28th, the domestic benchmark price of PA66 mixture was 21833.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -4.66% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

On the cost side:

Recently, the supply of adipic acid has increased, putting some pressure on the supply side. At the same time, in terms of diamine, overseas giant NVIDIA’s pricing fell by 1500 yuan/ton in June. Coupled with the previous high price of hexanediamine, the focus of the future market may fall; Overall, the support of costs for the PA66 market is not strong.

In terms of supply:

Recently, the operating rate of domestic PA66 production lines has remained stable with minor fluctuations. The overall industry load is around 70%. The production of the enterprise is stable, and the accumulation of inventory is average. Suppliers have generally lowered their factory prices, weakening their support.

In terms of demand:

Recently, textile, electrical, and modification enterprises have been following a routine in stocking and consumption, with most of their procurement operations being focused on production. The main force of on-site trading maintains a strong demand for follow-up, and the buyer camp is resistant to high priced goods. The demand side has average support for PA66.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the spot price of PA66 has fallen from a high level. The raw material market has seen a decline in support for the cost side of PA66. PA66 enterprise has a horizontal load and stable supply. The demand follow-up of terminal enterprises is average. It is expected that the PA66 market will continue to operate weakly in the future.

The market for ortho xylene rose in May

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of May 27th, the price of ortho xylene was 8400 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.20% compared to May 1st, when the price of ortho xylene was 8300 yuan/ton. Supported by the industrial chain, the ortho xylene market fluctuated and rose in May.

The price of mixed xylene first fell and then rose, and the cost support for adjacent xylene increased in May; The price of phthalic anhydride has significantly increased, and the demand for ortho xylene has increased to support it; The supply of ortho xylene is tight, and the price of ortho xylene increased in May.

The price of raw material mixed with xylene first fell and then rose

According to the mixed xylene commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of May 27th, the quoted price of mixed xylene was 7680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.13% from the price of mixed xylene on May 1st, which was 7670 yuan/ton. Crude oil prices have fluctuated and fallen, and the cost support for mixed xylene has weakened. In late May, the maintenance of mixed xylene equipment resulted in a decrease in the supply of mixed xylene, which provided significant support for the rise of mixed xylene. As a result, the price of mixed xylene stopped falling and rose.

Downstream phthalic anhydride market has seen a significant increase

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products by Business Society, as of May 27th, the quoted price of phthalic anhydride was 8187.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.06% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride on May 1st, which was 7720 yuan/ton. The price of raw material ortho xylene has increased, and the cost of phthalic anhydride has increased; In the latter half of the year, the concentrated maintenance of the phthalic anhydride plant has reduced its capacity utilization rate to below 60%, resulting in a decrease in supply and supporting the rise in phthalic anhydride prices, leading to a significant increase in phthalic anhydride prices.

Future prospects

According to analysts from Business Society’s adjacent xylene data, in terms of cost, the price of mixed xylene first fell and then rose, and the cost support for adjacent xylene increased; In terms of supply and demand, the price of phthalic anhydride has risen, and the tightening of ortho benzene supply has increased demand support, leading to increased support for the rise of ortho benzene. Overall, the supply and demand support is increasing, and it is expected that the benzene market will rise in the future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price trend of cryolite in Henan region remained stable this week (5.20-5.24). As of May 24th, the average market price in Henan region was 7550 yuan/ton, which is unchanged compared to the average price of 7550 yuan/ton on May 20th. The price remained unchanged during the week.

This week, the ice crystal market continued to remain stable, and enterprise ice crystal quotations remained unchanged. Upstream fluorite prices continue to operate strongly, with strong raw material prices, putting greater pressure on the cost of cryolite. However, downstream manufacturers have a strong resistance to high priced cryolite, and their enthusiasm for entering the market is average. They mainly rely on demand, resulting in weak market trading. The downstream market dominates, and there is a clear game on the market. Therefore, despite the strong raw material prices, most cryolite manufacturers still offer stable prices. As of May 24th, the ex factory quotation for cryolite in Shandong region is 7000-8500 yuan/ton; The factory quotation for cryolite in Henan region is between 7200-8000 yuan/ton.

The upstream fluorite market remains stable and watchful, with an average market price of 3806.25 yuan/ton as of May 24th, which is unchanged from the price of 3806.25 yuan/ton as of May 20th. Backward mines will continue to be phased out, and in terms of new mines, mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, recent national departments have issued price inquiries to rectify fluorite mines, and some mines have undergone safety hazard inspections. The progress of resuming work and production in the fluorite market is slow, and it is difficult to increase the production of fluorite. The supply of goods on site is tight, and fluorite prices are operating steadily.

Market forecast: The upstream of cryolite is operating at a high level, and there is significant cost pressure on cryolite. The market mentality is having a positive impact, and downstream demand is flat, and there is resistance to cryolite prices. Enterprise shipments are limited, but in the face of continuous upstream price increases, cryolite enterprises may face pressure to increase. It is expected that the cryolite market will continue to consolidate in the future, and prices may slightly increase. In the future, attention will be paid to upstream price changes and downstream follow-up.

Recently (from May 1st to May 23rd), the market price of butadiene rubber has slightly increased. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of May 23rd, the price of butadiene rubber in the East China region was 13260 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.41% from 13450 yuan/ton on April 22nd. The high price of raw material butadiene has fallen, and the cost support for butadiene rubber has weakened; The production of butadiene rubber remains at a low level; Downstream production of all steel tires has slightly increased, with on-demand procurement of butadiene rubber, resulting in a slight increase in the price of butadiene rubber.

Recently (from May 1st to May 23rd), the high price of butadiene has fallen, and the cost support for butadiene rubber has slightly weakened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 23, the price of butadiene was 11150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.80% from 11712 yuan/ton on May 1.

Recently (from May 1st to May 23rd), multiple sets of butadiene rubber plants have been shut down for maintenance. As of late May, the production of butadiene rubber in China has dropped to around 45%.

Demand side: In the near future (5.1-5.23), downstream tire production has slightly increased, providing rigid support for butadiene rubber. It is understood that as of mid May, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 790%; The operating load of all steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises has slightly increased to 6.80%; Downstream suppliers tend to stock up on demand for polybutadiene rubber.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Business Society believe that the price of raw material butadiene will slightly decrease, and the cost support for butadiene rubber will slightly weaken compared to the previous period; The production of butadiene rubber has once again declined, and the market supply is tight; Currently, downstream tire companies have seen a slight increase in production, providing strong support for the demand for butadiene rubber. Overall, the butadiene rubber market has remained strong in the near future under low production support.