After the listing of RMB crude oil in March this year, the volume of trading continued to rise. In September, oil and gas giants including PetroChina and Sinopec participated in the first delivery of the contract.

Reuters energy analyst Henning Gloystein wrote on August 31 that the presence of renminbi crude oil is rising and threatening the market position of New York oil and Brent oil.

According to the article, the presence of RMB crude oil futures (ISCC1), which the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) began trading in March, continued to rise in the international market. Although this variety has become an indicator for Asian countries, China, as the world’s largest crude oil importer, will continue to promote the trading of RMB crude oil in the future, British North Sea Brent Oil (OIL) and New York West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI). The market position will therefore be shaken.

At the beginning of the trading of RMB crude oil in the previous period, the trading volume exceeded the other futures varieties such as Oman crude oil (the third in the world) that began trading in 2007, occupying the market share of the original Brent oil and New York oil. In July, the total transaction volume increased to 2.8 million hands (1 lot 1,000 barrels), reaching 14.4% of global trading volume.

The article said that the “crust change” of this crude oil futures market will also affect other markets such as foreign exchange.

Richard Innis, head of the Internet currency trading company Oanda Asia Pacific, predicted that “taking into account the prominent situation in China’s oil market, the share of Shanghai oil is expected to increase further.” In addition, the foreign exchange market is also “focusing on the renminbi.”

Zhang Huiyao of Huatai Futures said, “Shanghai crude oil has a higher price and better liquidity, and it has a rapid linkage with other foreign crude oil futures. For speculators, it has become a very good trading variety.”

Considering that China is the world’s largest importer of crude oil, more and more analysts believe that Shanghai Oil will be an important reference indicator. At the same time, the US sanctions against Iran are also one of the reasons for the rapid rise in the significance of its indicators.

As the US government decided in May to impose sanctions on Iran again, it threatened to reduce Iranian crude oil exports to zero as of November 3. All foreign companies and governments that continue to purchase will be sanctioned by the US. China is the biggest buyer of Iranian crude oil and is not expected to ignore the US request.

China has changed part of its crude oil futures trading from the price of the dollar to the yuan.

Innis said, “The continued trading of Iranian crude oil linked to the renminbi on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is expected to be one of China’s current trade frictions.”

He also said that Russia is also interested in clearing crude oil in RMB.

Therefore, Shanghai oil may eventually change the pattern of the world crude oil market.

Barry White of the US international asset holding company (INTL FCStone) said that China’s major oil companies have replaced some of their futures positions with Shanghai crude oil. Shanghai crude oil futures contract was first delivered in September, and giants such as PetroChina and Sinopec participated in it.

According to industry insiders, many companies and banks in the West are also trying to trade Shanghai crude oil futures and plan to expand the transaction volume. Although the Oman crude oil of the Dubai Exchange of the United Arab Emirates has achieved certain success, its influence in the financial market is limited.

The pricing power of the international crude oil market has been dominated by Brent oil and New York oil for decades, which has undoubtedly made China’s promotion of RMB crude oil trading more natural.

Innis said: “As China’s domestic market increases openness and transparency, and the internationalization of the RMB accelerates, Shanghai Oil has begun to take a big step toward this trend.”

First, the price trend:

According to data from business organizations, the price of ortho-benzene is stable in the near future. On August 27, the price of o-xylene was 7,837.50 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with the price of o-xylene (OX) of 7,837.50 yuan/ton on August 17, up 31.72% year-on-year.

Second, the market analysis:

Product:

This week, the inventory of phthalene in the East China Port remained at a low level. As of August 27, the inventory of Huadong Port was about 30,000 tons. The price of phthalate external disk rose. On August 27th, the European market for o-xylene market was quoted at US$1000.00/ton FOB Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp, which was up by US$30/ton over the previous week. The price of phthalate external disk rose, the cost of imported benzene increased, and the price of imported benzene increased. The price of imported ortho-benzene increased, and the domestic price of o-xylene increased under pressure. However, the demand for ortho-benzene did not increase substantially, and the growth potential of o-benzene was limited.

Industry chain:

The mixed xylene market fell first and then rose, and the cost of o-xylene decreased. On August 25, the price of mixed xylene was 6,595.45 yuan/ton, which was priced at 660.09 yuan/ton from the beginning of August (August 20). The price fell by 0.21%. The price of mixed xylene dropped, the cost of o-xylene decreased, and the momentum of rising benzene market weakened.

Third, the market outlook:

Baijiaxin, an analyst of the o-xylene data of the business community, believes that the price of phthalate external disk has risen, the price of phthalate in the port has remained high, and the stock of benzene in the port has been low, which has played a positive role in maintaining the domestic benzene high market. At the same time, the price of mixed xylene in domestic benzene raw materials decreased, the cost of ortho-benzene decreased, and the price increase of ortho-benzene was negative. The stock of benzene in the port is at a low level, and the sound of the market is soaring. The price of the adjacent benzene is hard to decline in the short term. The neighboring benzene is better. The benzene growth is stronger, but the demand for benzene is less. And because the price of ortho-benzene raw materials has decreased, the possibility of rising phthalene is reduced. It is expected that the price of phthalic acid in the market will not rise, and the market for benzene in the market will remain stable.

First, the price trend

According to the data of the business community, the average price of liquefied natural gas at the beginning of the week was 3981.25 yuan/ton. As of August 17, the average price of liquefied natural gas was 37.7.50 yuan/ton, and the overall price of LNG fell 5.12%, up 25.02% year-on-year.

Second, the analysis of influencing factors

Products: According to the data of business organizations, as of August 17, the LNG price of Hangjinqi Xinsheng Natural Gas Co., Ltd. in Erdos City, Inner Mongolia is 3900 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang Guanghui LNG Development Co., Ltd. is about 2850 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia. The LNG price of Ordos Star Energy Co., Ltd. is 3,770 yuan / ton, the LNG price of Renqiu Development Zone Huagang Gas Co., Ltd. is 4,000 yuan / ton, and the LNG price of Shaanxi Luyuan Natural Gas Co., Ltd. Zizhou LNG Factory is 3,800 yuan / ton.

Market Analysis: At present, environmental protection requirements are more stringent, and actively build a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient modern energy system, fully promote the elimination of clean energy, environmental protection pressure, “coal to gas” stimulates the rapid growth of natural gas demand, not weak in the off-season, liquefaction Natural gas plants are selling well, and the liquid level is gradually decreasing. In addition, the recent restrictions on gas in the northwest region are relatively strong, and LNG prices are at a high level. Due to the high price of LNG, the demand is reduced, the market mentality is not good, the downstream receiving goods are relatively weak, and the contradiction between supply and demand causes prices to start to fall.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business companies, in the 33rd week of 2018 (8.13-8.17), there were 8 commodities in the energy sector that rose in the energy sector. The top 3 commodities were coke (4.37%) and fuel oil. (2.57%), liquefied gas (1.50%). There were 6 kinds of commodities with a decrease in the chain, and 1 product with a drop of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored products in the sector; the top 3 products were LNG (-5.12%) and dimethyl ether (- 4.03%), WTI crude oil (-3.21%). This week’s average price increase was -0.29%.

Third, the market outlook

LNG analysts in the business community believe that the high price of LNG makes the downstream receiving goods weak, and the market demand is insufficient. It is expected that the LNG price will stabilize in the short term.

According to Kuala Lumpur on September 25 news, Malaysia spot tin prices and flat on Thursday, reported $ 20,650 per ton; turnover increased to 66 tons, up 21 tons. Last Friday due to the Malaysian calendar New Year holiday closed.

September 25, PTA US dollars cargo offer to 635-640 US dollars / ton, compared with the previous day price temporarily stable, no turnover heard.

I. Price trend

Since the beginning of December, ethanol prices have climbed sharply, influenced by factors such as lower operating rates and strong downstream demand. Baskets Nike According to data from the Business Society monitoring, as of December 15, the consumption of ethanol from the beginning of December, 5750 Yuan/ton rose to 6161.11 yuan/ton, rose 411.11 yuan/ton, or 7.15%, the average price breakthrough 6000 mark, set a new high since late December 2014! Nearly 3 months since mid-September, edible ethanol climbed slowly, rising 1022.22 yuan/ton, up to 19.89%!
Second, the market analysis

Industry chain: Upstream, business community monitoring of edible ethanol production of raw materials to corn and cassava mainly. By the farmers reluctant price, deep processing demand, trade, such as the main food and other favorable support, corn market prices overall to maintain a small upward trend, according to the business community monitoring data show that in the past 1 months, the average price of corn rose 28.57 yuan/ton to 1673.93 yuan/ton, or 1.73%. The more than 40 days of cassava from mid-November to the end of December were ushered in the lean period, low domestic inventory, the root cause is that China as a raw material for ethanol production of cassava mainly imports, while the major importers in Vietnam and Thailand in the early November to mid-December this nearly 40 days, the labor force to harvest Rice, The cassava harvest was temporarily sidelined. So in the last 1 months the domestic average price of cassava rose 20-60 yuan/ton unequal also in the sense.

The downstream end of ethyl acetate, one of the main downstream products of edible ethanol, was lower in overall factory operating rate during the last 1 months. Raw material acetic acid and edible ethanol prices are rising and downstream just need support, and other factors, east China and North China, the average price of ethyl acetate rose 950 yuan/ton to 7350 yuan/ton, or 14.8% The average price of ethyl acetate in South China rose by 1250 yuan/ton to 7850 yuan/ton, or 18.9%. Another demand surge in the consumption of ethanol large buyers are wineries, on the one hand from the early days of the holiday liquor stock, on the other hand, the winter came, drinking liquor cold habit also led to rising demand.

Products: Since December, the average price of edible ethanol in east China rose 550 yuan/ton to 6400 yuan/ton, or 9.4%. The average consumption of ethanol in north China rose 450 yuan/ton to 6200 yuan/ton, or 7.83%. The average consumption of ethanol in southern China rose 150 yuan/ton to 6100 yuan/ton, or 2.52%. The reason for the increase in ethanol consumption is: 1. nike air max 90 Starting from the beginning of December, under the influence of a new round of environmental protection and planned parking overhaul, some ethanol plants in east China and north China are in reduced load production or discontinued, and the overall installation rate has fallen to about 68%. nike air max air 2. Some ethanol factories are converting. is driven by the price of ethyl acetate, some ethanol factories, the proportion of ethanol exports decreased, more production in their own acetic acid ethyl ester. Some ethanol plants have been switching to the production of fuel ethanol for most of the time because of the strong demand for orders. All of these factors have led to a decrease in the supply of ethanol, which is still strong in the short term as demand is booming downstream.

Third, future forecast

Looking ahead, business analysts believe that the consumption of ethanol raw corn short-term prices to maintain high volatility, the median line with the Spring Festival before the farmers selling will increase, corn prices have to fall back demand. In late December, cassava is expected to come down with a price drop as market supplies increase. Canada Goose Ontario The next week, the early parking overhaul of the ethanol plant basically resumed driving, if no additional temporary parking, the overall operating rate is expected to rise. But the recent surge in demand is still a major factor in the short-term support for higher prices for edible ethanol.

December domestic acetone average price rose sharply at the beginning of the month, domestic enterprises factory price price of 6416.67 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of 7305.56 yuan / ton, the month rose 13.85%. The current prices for the same period last year rose 107.74%.

Two, analysis and review

Products: in December the domestic market as a whole was sharply higher, the first half of the market continue to rise, and hit a new high this year, the second half of the high office. At the beginning of the month of benzene with propylene raw materials prices rose sharply, due to cost pressures, acetone plant half successive raised ex factory price of 900 yuan / ton. In addition, the port inventory is not high, and the stock concentration, industry mentality is good, shippers offer continued high. The second half, due to the large range of haze weather and environmental restrictions, terminal factories were forced to stop or decline in demand. In addition, some profit shipments positive, the market shock consolidation. East China acetone to discuss the market price in the 7100-7200 yuan / ton, the surrounding area of Yanshan to discuss the price of 7300-7400 yuan / ton, Southern China area to discuss the price in 7300-7500 yuan / ton.

The industrial chain: in December, Sinopec benzene Guapaijia were at 5, 7, 9 days each increase 300 yuan / ton, 14, increase 200 yuan / ton, a total increase of 1100 yuan / ton to 7700 yuan / ton, up sharply, prices rose to highs. The reasons for the rise of Europe and Asia, outside the whole benzene skyrocketing, the Korean market led by sharply, oil prices continue to rise high consolidation. However, after the late, domestic benzene market prices sharply lower, 26, Sinopec listing price down 300 yuan / ton to 7400 yuan / ton, affected by the haze weather, the downstream industry chain operating rate fell sharply, in some areas even stop down the load floor production, bad mood strong, the price decline.

In December, the overall market turnover atmosphere to improve raw material prices again, sprint high, the highest price month break 8000 yuan / ton mark, up to 8100 yuan / ton, in crude oil is favorable, propylene downstream quickly opened rose pattern, to discuss the market actively promote consolidation. The second half but by the fog, environmental protection and other aspects of propylene transport limited supply circulation is slow, part of the downstream factories to limit production shutdown, weakening demand for propylene, and even lower prices continue to rise, propylene is weak, the market trend of high order.

Three, market forecast

The acetone manufacturers losses, manufacturers cost pressures, the subsequent deposit may have reduced the negative. And next month, imports have reduced expectations, the overall supply will be reduced. But next month coincides with the Spring Festival, the downstream demand is difficult to increase. Acetone market consolidation operation is expected next month.

this month DOP market price volatility, price change operation mode obviously. The market rose more driven by raw materials of octanol. As of the end of North China DOP valuation of 8300 yuan / ton, Shandong to discuss the range of 8200-8300 yuan / ton, Zhejiang to discuss the range of 8400-8500 yuan / ton, compared with the domestic manufacturers at the beginning of the month the average price of 8492 yuan / tons, a decline of 1.28% months, nearly 3 months rose to 14.39%.

Market analysis:

Dynamic device: Dongying Yimei month device in normal operation, daily output of more than and 300 tons; Shandong Hongxin month equipment normal operation; normal Qilu plasticizer plant, Nissan 700 tons; the normal operation of Zhejiang Weboo device; no parking device industry high Teruo production plan.

December: industry chain upstream raw material market is octanol high concussion, December propylene ferocious rally, successfully pulled to 8000 yuan / ton level, octanol occasion hike, although the increase is only 500 yuan, but the DOP long-term at a loss situation, the cost is higher, to avoid loss of space amplification, manufacturers is also follow up. But the rise in time and space is limited, a propylene drop, resulting octanol have lowered the long-term decline in the state, phthalic anhydride, and the decline is enlarged, the upstream conduction decreased constantly. On the other hand, the demand side is weak, near the end of the year, demand a large decline, coupled with environmental protection does not collide, downstream of the PVC soft products production is not prosperous situation worsened, the demand for DOP but just, almost stagnant, facing the lack of interest spot situation, mentality pressure intensified. Post market bearish on manufacturers and holding the goods for shipment and shipment actively, reduce resistance, generally low, leading to market decline amplification.

Industry: December plasticizer industry chain, the overall market high consolidation, the market is expected in January downward shock.

Market forecast:

In December, the domestic DOP market is still weak trend, with the focus on the phenomenon of low. The terminal demand is difficult to improve, inquiry and purchase the phenomenon of poor, the manufacturers take the goods in high resistance situation, mentality continued pressure, coupled with raw material manufacturers and octanol down, but also increased the negative expectation. Market outlook, demand outlook is subject to change, and manufacturers and shippers will ship based, but based on the demand is difficult to improve, there are low risk, however, manufacturers still in the vicinity of the cost line, is expected to more than yindie.

Environmental protection is an important factor affecting the present price of glyphosate

Since 2014, glyphosate prices continued to fall, from the highest 33 thousand yuan / ton this year fell to the lowest 16 thousand and 900 yuan / ton, breakeven basic loss of the whole industry, leading enterprises. Glyphosate domestic production capacity by 2009 more than 100 tons of the highest current reduced to about 900 thousand tons, according to Societe Generale Securities and grassroots research to understand, in the normal production of more than a dozen companies at present, industry supply situation improved significantly.

The fourth quarter of this year to enter the traditional peak season since glyphosate, downstream demand has improved; and the upstream of yellow phosphorus, glycine and other raw materials prices to support the formation of product prices, glyphosate prices continue to rise.

In addition, if the subsequent second batch of central environmental inspectors assigned to the big Sichuan, Hubei Province, the production of glyphosate, or have a certain impact on the supply of glyphosate.

The price of glyphosate is expected to continue to rise, promote the enterprises to enhance profitability. During the traditional sales season, with the domestic environmental enforcement efforts continue to overweight, the main raw material supply tight, prices are expected to continue to rise, the glyphosate product spreads widened, driven enterprises greater performance flexibility.