On January 21, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 114.56, down 0.38 points from yesterday, down 18.42% from the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and up 113.77% from the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market has been lower recently. The price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is 12625 yuan/ton as of 22 days, and the starting rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid is about 60%. Enterprises reflect that the supply of hydrofluoric acid on the spot is sufficient, the situation of goods on the spot has been worse recently, some enterprises have increased their hydrofluoric acid inventory, and the ex-factory price has been slightly lowered, but due to the high expenditure of raw material market. The market price of hydrofluoric acid has fallen by a very limited margin. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 12,000-12,500 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 12,000-13,000 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market price trend is slightly lower, spot supply is sufficient, due to the recent high prices of raw materials market, fluorite prices are in a high state, but the price of raw materials fluorite slightly declined, the market price of hydrofluoric acid slightly lower.

Recent downstream refrigerant product maintenance devices are more, the demand for upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid has weakened, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market has declined, and the price of hydrofluoric acid products has slightly decreased. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 70%, R22 refrigerant facility start-up rate declines, the main production enterprise bulk water out-of-factory offer price drops to 17500-18500 yuan/ton, but the production enterprise does not have bulk water spot, mainly with a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has declined, and the shipment market trend is poor. The domestic market price of R134a is slightly lower, the start-up rate of production enterprises is lower, the market demand for refrigerants is weakened, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much, and the merchants purchase on demand. Recently, due to the impact of equipment maintenance, the upstream market demand for hydrofluoric acid has weakened.

Refrigerant on-site transaction prices slightly lower, refrigerant industry equipment overhaul increased, the upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand weakened, coupled with the upstream refrigerant industry to resist high prices of raw materials, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market may continue to decline, hydrofluoric acid prices will be around 12,500 yuan/ton.

According to data released Monday by the International Aluminum Industry Association (IAI), global raw aluminium production increased by 73,000 tons to 2.208 million tons in December, 17,000 tons less than in December 2017.

China’s primary aluminium production in December is expected to be 3.143 million tons, higher than the revised 30.42 million tons in November.

Price Trend

According to the business community urea price monitoring, this week the domestic urea market quotation slightly rebounded, the market purchases on demand. At the beginning of the week, the mainstream ex-factory quotation in the domestic urea market was 1900 yuan/ton. At the weekend, the mainstream ex-factory quotation in the domestic urea market rose to 1907 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.39%.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the domestic urea market prices rose slightly, and the plant was partly overhauled. At present, the mainstream of Shandong has begun to rise slightly, with some manufacturers quoting 1870-1920 yuan/ton and Anhui manufacturers quoting 1920-1940 yuan/ton. The overall trading atmosphere of the market has been reduced. Recently, the domestic environment protection inspection atmosphere has eased, coal shortage after heating, many urea enterprises are limited by gas, high price gas and so on, which results in high cost pressure. Some enterprises are forced to limit or stop production, which also results in the decline of start-up and poor performance in demand. The overall industry start-up rate of domestic compound fertilizer enterprises remains low, and the price of raw material urea is unstable. In some enterprises, production reduction or overhaul remains unchanged, and the equipment load is still acceptable.

Market demand: At present, the domestic industrial urea market demand is low. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, it is expected that the downstream industrial factories will further decline in the start-up rate. Most plywood factories will stop for vacation around the Spring Festival. As for agricultural demand, with urea prices declining and the approaching of the Spring Festival, distributors begin to purchase in appropriate quantities. It is expected that the domestic urea market will remain stable in the short term, with partial fine-tuning.

Industry chain: Anthracite market supply in the upstream is still tight, coal prices are still rising in recent days, the supply of urea raw materials and natural gas is tight, the price of liquid ammonia market has slightly declined, and urea cost support is strong. Compound fertilizer started at a low level, and raw materials trading was limited.

3. Future Market Forecast

In the short term, there is no fluctuation in the quotation and market turnover of enterprises, and the actual transaction is slightly cool. With the gradual reduction of business orders and increasing pressure, it is reported that last week the low price again exploded, but distributors are not in a hurry to get the goods, and have a strong wait-and-see mood. According to market understanding, the Indian bidding price is not optimistic, exporters are mostly operating for pre-order, this tender is not prepared, may be later to find the source of goods, but in the early part of the low-price transaction, and the number of bidding, because the price is low, the expected volume will not be too much. Domestic demand is still weak. If the support of labeling is limited, and the pressure of enterprises to take orders before the Spring Festival, the urea market is expected to rise slightly next week.

NEW YORK, Jan. 15 (Reuters) – The U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) said in its first 2020 forecast that daily crude oil production from the United States is expected to rise to a new record of more than 12 million barrels this year and to nearly 13 million barrels next year.

U.S. crude oil production is expected to climb 1.14 million barrels to 12.07 million barrels a day in 2019 and increase by 790,000 barrels to 12.86 million barrels by 2020, the Department of Energy Statistics said in a monthly report.

Driven by shale production, the United States has become the world’s largest producer of crude oil, producing nearly 11 million barrels a day in 2018, breaking the annual record set in 1970.

“The steady growth of crude oil production in non-OPEC countries, including the United States, has become the top predictor of global crude oil production,” EIA Administrator Linda Capuano said in a commentary after the forecast. We expect the United States to remain the world’s largest producer of crude oil.

The forecast shows that the United States will become a net exporter of crude oil by the end of 2020.

EIA said daily demand for diesel and other distillate fuels in the United States is expected to increase by 20,000 barrels this year to 4.15 million barrels, and by 2020 to 4.19 million barrels.

Gasoline demand in the United States is expected to reach 9.29 million barrels a day this year, down from the 9.31 million barrels previously predicted. EIA said daily demand for light oil in the United States will rise to 9.35 million barrels this year and remain at that level by 2020.

On January 16, the closing price of p-xylene in the U.S. market rose by $1/ton, closing at $1033-1043/ton FOB in the U.S. Harbour

The business monitoring company’s offer has been lowered. At present, enterprises in Shandong and East China are down by 500 yuan/ton, which is basically balanced with the market. Up to now, the market price in Shandong has been 5,400 yuan/ton, the price around Yanshan is 5,350 yuan/ton, the price in East China is 5,200 yuan/ton, and the price in South China is 5,700 yuan/ton. Overall, the market has a downward trend.

Tianjin Zhongsha Petrochemical’s 350,000 tons/year phenolic ketone plant stopped on September 3 and resumed its resumption today. It is expected to be discharged tomorrow. During the holiday period, the market was weak, and the port inventory in East China was relatively high. After the holiday, the manufacturers concentrated their adjustments and concentrated shipments at the end of the month. The market may still have a slight downward trend.

According to the data monitoring of business organizations, on September 17, the average price of acetic anhydride enterprises was 7312.50 yuan / ton, up 0.26% from the previous trading day, up 46.49%.

On September 16th, the acetic anhydride commodity index was 144.55, which was the same as yesterday. It was 12.78% lower than the highest point of 165.73 points (2018-06-19) in the cycle, which was 75.04% higher than the lowest point of 82.58 points on September 20, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

On September 17, the domestic vinegar anhydride factory price rose, and the market transaction price rose. In most areas, the factory price is 6800-7400 yuan / ton, the actual transaction price is 50 yuan / ton -100 yuan / ton, the actual transaction price is about 6800-7000 yuan / ton, the market price is the reference price, the actual transaction price is actually Negotiation shall prevail.

Recently, the price of raw material acetic acid has risen, the price of raw material methanol has risen, and the overall cost of acetic anhydride manufacturers has risen, which has formed a positive effect on the price of acetic anhydride. The operating rate of downstream customers has rebounded, but the overall start-up is still low. The demand for acetic anhydride is good, but the upward momentum is limited. The downstream procurement enthusiasm is generally limited, and the support for the price increase of acetic anhydride is limited. However, the operating rate of acetic anhydride equipment is at a high level recently, the supply of acetic anhydride is increasing, and the demand for acetic anhydride is slow to recover. It is difficult to support the price of acetic anhydride to continue to rise, and the price of raw materials is rising. The cost of acetic anhydride has risen, and the price of acetic anhydride has a strong upward momentum. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will fluctuate and adjust, and the overall domestic price of acetic anhydride will rise slightly.

According to the data monitoring of business organizations, on September 13, the average price of acetic anhydride enterprises was 729.375 yuan/ton, up 0.86% from the previous trading day and up 48.35% year-on-year.

The commodity index of acetic anhydride on September 12 was 143.31, which was the same as yesterday, which was 13.53% lower than the highest point of 165.73 points (2018-06-19) in the cycle, which was 73.54% higher than the lowest point of 82.58 points on September 20, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

On September 13, the domestic vinegar anhydride factory price rose, and the market transaction price rose slightly. In most areas, the factory price is 6800-7200 yuan / ton, the actual transaction price is about 100 yuan / ton, the actual transaction price is about 6600-6900 yuan / ton, the market price is the reference price, the actual transaction price is subject to actual negotiation.

Recently, the price of raw material acetic acid has risen, the price of raw material methanol has risen, and the overall cost of acetic anhydride manufacturers has risen, which has formed a positive effect on the price of acetic anhydride. The operating rate of downstream customers has rebounded, but the overall start-up is still low. The demand for acetic anhydride is good, but the upward momentum is limited. The downstream procurement enthusiasm is generally limited, and the support for the price increase of acetic anhydride is limited. However, the operating rate of acetic anhydride equipment is at a high level recently, the supply of acetic anhydride is increasing, and the demand for acetic anhydride is slow to recover. It is difficult to support the price of acetic anhydride to continue to rise, and the price of raw materials is rising. The cost of acetic anhydride has risen, and the price of acetic anhydride has a strong upward momentum. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will fluctuate and adjust, and the overall domestic price of acetic anhydride will rise slightly.

1. Price trend
According to the price monitoring of the business community, this week’s TDI offer closed at 28,340 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2,360 yuan / ton, a decrease of 7.69% compared with the beginning of the week, the price fell sharply.

2. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: The domestic TDI market fell sharply this month. Shanghai Xingrong Chemical Co., Ltd. reported dow28500 yuan / ton; Nanjing Carbon Green Chemicals Co., Ltd. reported that Zhangzhou Dahua 28,000 yuan / ton; Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone Pan Asia International Trade Co., Ltd. reported BASF 28,200 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: The market continued to fall sharply this week. The traditional peak season of TDI is coming, and the industry has different views. Some holders said that this year is not necessarily the same, the downstream environmental inspection is strict, each year is different. According to the previous trend, many people will stock up before the peak season, which directly leads to the peak season, and the supply and demand shutdown is such a dynamic change. It can only be said that the first two years are the peak period of TDI. At the same time, many goods dealers also said that there is no stockpile plan, TDI does not dare to pick up the goods, the current profit margin of the manufacturers is still very large, so the space for falling will be great. At the same time, Yantai Juli and Wanhua Chemical will each have their own production capacity of 150,000 tons/year and 300,000 tons/year. The production capacity will increase and the supply gap will be improved. The early expectations were too high, but the price did not rise as expected, causing prices to fall, and demand was bleak.

Industry: Two consecutive TDI prices such a roller coaster-like market shows that there is indeed a problem in the TDI market. At present, TDI is a high-margin product in the polyurethane industry, and it has been a high price in the recent collapse to 24,500. Long-term high product prices are not conducive to sustainable development. Domestic and foreign manufacturers are researching ways to reduce or replace the use of TDI. If the price does not return to a healthy level at an early date, the follow-up situation is worrying.

III. Conclusions and prospects

According to the analysis of the data analysts of the business community: TDI will continue to decline in a short period of time. If the market is stimulated, it will delay the decline. Mainly depends on economic and environmental factors.