Price Trend

According to the data monitored by business associations (average price of SG5 manufactured by calcium carbide method), domestic PVC quoted 6300 yuan/ton on March 4, and domestic PVC quoted 6350 yuan/ton on March 8, with little change in price, fluctuating range of 50-100 yuan/ton. This week, the PVC market shook slightly.

II. Cause Analysis

Products: In March, the weather is warm, the demand for infrastructure is gradually restored, the spot market atmosphere of PVC has been improved, while the start-up rate of PVC manufacturers is around 60%, the supply is sufficient, and the overall market is more stable. Recently, there has been little volatility in PVC futures, which has little impact on the spot market. Up to March 9, the domestic mainstream price range of PVC is 6150-6650 yuan/ton.

Industry: On March 6, the rubber and plastic index was 742 points, up 2 points from yesterday, down 30.00% from the highest point of 1060 points in the cycle (2012-03-14), and up 28.82% from the lowest point of 576 points on December 21, 2015. (Note: Cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to date) This week, commodity market shocks slightly, the overall trend of the rubber and plastic industry shocks upward mainly.

3. Future Market Forecast

PVC business analysts believe that entering March, the PVC market is in a recovery period, supply and demand game, price shocks slightly. It is expected that the demand side of infrastructure construction and real estate industry will gradually recover in the future, and the fluctuation of future market will dominate upward. The mainstream price of PVC 5 is 6150-6700 yuan/ton.

Price Trend

February 2019 Antimony ingot Market declined, the domestic market average price at the beginning of the month was 50,000 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week was 48,750 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.5%.

On February 28, the Sb Commodity Index was 67.87, unchanged from yesterday, down 33.67% from its peak of 102.32 points in the cycle (2012-10-16), and up 44.47% from its low of 46.98 points on December 24, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2012-09-08 to date).

II. Market Analysis

Upstream and downstream: Antimony trioxide: Affected by the lower price of antimony ingot, antimony trioxide price declined. By the end of the month, 99.5% antimony trioxide was about 4250 yuan/ton and 99.8% antimony trioxide was about 44000 yuan/ton.

Domestic market: before the Spring Festival, the market is relatively cold. Most manufacturers completed stock purchase at the end of January and entered the Spring Festival holiday ahead of schedule. After the opening of the Spring Festival Holiday, there are fragmented just-in-demand transactions in the market. The transaction price of some manufacturers was lower than the mainstream market price of 500 yuan/ton, and then the antimony ingot Market went down. By the end of the month, 2_high bismuth antimony ingot is about 46000 yuan/ton, 2_low bismuth antimony ingot is about 47500 yuan/ton, 1_antimony ingot is about 48000 yuan/ton, and 0_antimony ingot

INTERNATIONAL: This week, the US dollar fell from its high last week, US crude oil showed 4 lianyang, reaching a recent high of US$57.88 per barrel. The latest progress of Sino-US negotiations announced a temporary postponement of the original tariff levy on China on March 1. The market was boosted by positive sentiment. Domestic A-share market was booming, with nearly 3000 points, and the metal market was red.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

There will be a lot of data next week, with the US dollar showing downward signs. As China enters March, downstream construction will gradually resume. With the convening of the “two sessions”, market sentiment maintains a positive trend, and the spot market of antimony slightly rises.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, as of February 28, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone market was 9500 yuan/ton, and the domestic market of cyclohexanone was strong.

II. Market Analysis

Products: The domestic market of cyclohexanone is strong and upward, the manufacturers’spot supply is not much, the quotation is increased, the traders are rising, the market demand of downstream caprolactam is still acceptable, the solvent users are conflicting with the high price, and the high price transaction is limited. The mainstream offer of cyclohexanone in North China market is delivered in cash at 10600-10700, the mainstream offer in East China market is delivered in cash at 10900-11000, and the mainstream offer in South China market is delivered in cash at 11200-11300.

Industry Chain: Pure Benzene: East China Pure Benzene Early Market Price is stable. Caprolactam: The spot market of caprolactam is strong, spot supply is still tight, manufacturers are still selling at low prices, downstream polymerization factories just need to purchase.

3. Future Market Forecast

Cost is stable, downstream chemical fiber market demand follow-up, solvent users just need to purchase, the overall supply shortage. Cyclohexanone analysts expect the market to be strong.

Price Trend

Recently, the domestic butadiene market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. As of February 26, the price of butadiene was 9,445 yuan per ton, according to business association monitoring.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: The domestic butadiene market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere and no business has been concluded in Fushun butadiene market. However, Panjin suspended export and supported the mindset of the traders. However, the downstream traders still have a cautious mindset, limited enthusiasm for receiving goods and poor market turnover. Shandong butadiene market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, Panjin suspended export, supporting the mindset of the industry, but the downstream cautious mindset is obvious, the transaction is general, and the offer is maintained and tidied up. East China butadiene market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, downstream inquiries are still cautious, market turnover is poor, and the offer is maintained. Asian closing price of butadiene, FOB Korea average offer $1110-1118 per ton; CFR China average offer $1130-1138 per ton.

Industry chain: styrene-butadiene rubber: due to rumors of price increases and butadiene external market is slightly stronger, domestic styrene-butadiene rubber market offers show a strong pattern, some of them even show an improvement, while the inquiry atmosphere has also improved, but the actual transaction is general. Cis-butadiene rubber: The domestic cis-butadiene rubber market is stable. The overall market offer price is stable, the overall inquiry atmosphere is not good, and the spot turnover is small. SBS: Oil glue price in domestic SBS market increased slightly, dry rubber duct was narrowed and the atmosphere was light.

3. Future Market Forecast

On the positive side, demand gradually recovered; Panjin suspended export. On the short side, the external price is weak and the supply side is abundant. Business Association butadiene analysts expect that the short-term domestic butadiene market will maintain a consolidation trend, focusing on market turnover.

On the third day of the year, there was not much good news in the fertilizer market. Potassium sulfate continued to cool down the previous year.

The quotation of enterprises is basically the same as that of the previous year. According to the introduction of relevant enterprises, the market turnover after the year is cold, and then depends on the specific situation of the market.

Potassium sulfate is in sufficient stock after one year, so the future market expectation is still not satisfactory. Business analysts believe that the potassium sulfate Market will not fluctuate significantly in the short term, and the market will continue to be stable.

Price Trend

The propane market continued to fall in January. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of propane was 4500 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price was 4087.5 yuan/ton. The price dropped by 9.17% in the month and 16.07% compared with the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: Propane prices have fallen continuously this month, with a large margin, and the market climate has weakened. As of January 31, propane from Dongming Petrochemical Company and Zhonghai Fine Chemical Company of Shandong Province were not quoted for the time being. The ex-factory price of propane in Tianjin Bohai Chemical Industry Group is 4200 yuan/ton, that in Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group is 4150 yuan/ton, that in Shandong Huifeng Petrochemical Company is 4100 yuan/ton, that in Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Company is 4150 yuan/ton, and that in Shandong Binzhou Dayou Group is 4100 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: In January, the price of domestic liquefied gas market rose first and then fell. At the beginning of the month, the average price of domestic liquefied gas market was 3900 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month it was 3900 yuan/ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the month. The price was 12.85% lower than that of the same period last year. Domestic propylene (East China) prices fluctuated and fell in January. At the beginning of the month, the average price of domestic enterprises was 8010 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of domestic enterprises was 7880 yuan/ton. In the month, the price fell by 1.62%, which was 5.56% lower than that of the same period last year. In February, Saudi Arabia Americans CP: Propane 440 US dollars/ton, up 10% from last month. Butane is $470 per ton, up 50% from last month. Spot conversion cost is 3522 yuan/ton for propane and 3745 yuan/ton for butane.

The propane market did not perform well in January and prices continued to fall. In the first half of the month, the price of the main refinery dropped sharply, affecting the mindset of the operators. The downstream bearish market atmosphere is strong, the enthusiasm for entering the market is not high, and more on-demand replenishment is needed. The manufacturers’shipments continue to be poor, and inventory is gradually depressed. In the second half of the month, the liquefied petroleum gas market continued to fall, the short market and the price continued to fall. However, with the Spring Festival approaching, the demand for downstream stocks, the market turnover improved, the inventory situation of manufacturers improved, and the introduction of a small increase in CP in February, the price stabilized.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in January 2019, there were 27 commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 14 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 19.7% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were sulfuric acid (26.53%), phosphate ore (19.12%) and n-butanol (industrial grade) (14.52%). There are 41 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 21.1% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are TDI (-23.96%), ethylene oxide (-19.35%) and acetic acid (-9.91%). This month’s average rise and fall was -0.13%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Propane analysts of business associations believe that the introduction of CPs in February, a slight rise, good market mentality. However, when the downstream replenishment is over and inventory is depleted one after another, and the Spring Festival holidays are approaching, manufacturers are facing more holidays. It is expected that the future market will be stable.

Price Trend

The domestic butadiene market has been on the sidelines recently. As of January 29, the price of butadiene was 10,223 yuan per ton, according to business association monitoring.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: The domestic butadiene market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, the price of butadiene from northern manufacturers has fallen, dragging down the market, the industry’s initiative to offer is limited, downstream work has been shut down for holidays, the market demand is weak, weak turnover, it is expected that the short-term domestic butadiene market will continue to be weak, pay attention to market turnover. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the butadiene market in Shandong, and there is no supply pressure on the site for the time being, but downstream traders are more cautious about receiving goods. Eastern China butadiene market atmosphere is general, lack of information guidance, downstream inquiries are limited, and market offers are maintained. Asian closing price of butadiene, FOB Korea average offer of $1125-1133 per ton; CFR China average offer of $1145-1153 per ton.

Industry Chain: Styrene-butadiene rubber: Domestic market of Styrene-butadiene rubber shows a stable trend, business offer is not much, sporadic business offer is stable, inquiry atmosphere is weak, lack of real trading. Cis-butadiene rubber: The domestic cis-butadiene rubber market is stable. On-site vendors offer little, market inquiries are scarce, and spot turnover is limited. SBS: Domestic SBS market oil glue low finishing, dry rubber road smooth operation. In the short term, the oil-rubber and dry-rubber pipelines will maintain smooth operation.

3. Future Market Forecast

On the positive side, the external price is firm; the supply side of butadiene is tight; on the negative side, the downstream synthetic rubber market is insufficient to follow up. Business Association butadiene analysts predict that the domestic butadiene market or the stock market may decline, focusing on market turnover.

Price Trend
According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic acetic acid market rose slightly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of acetic acid in eastern China was around 3100 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, it rose to about 3166 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.15%. At present, the quotation in Henan is about 2850/ton; in Shandong is about 3050-3250 yuan/ton; in Hebei is about 3150 yuan/ton; in Shaanxi is about 2600 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu is about 3050-3150 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang is about 3250-3300 yuan/ton; in South China, the quotation is about 3200-3300 yuan/ton, which is 33.33% lower than that in the same period last year.

II. Cause Analysis

Product: This week, due to tight supply and low inventory, combined with pre-holiday stock and other factors, the on-site quotation continued to rise, but the on-site negotiations were flat, and many small orders were concluded. In terms of start-up, the 400,000 tons/year plant in Longyu, Henan Province has been shut down for a short time, and the 400,000 tons/year plant in Yangtze, Nanjing, has been overhauled since the beginning of the month. The overall start-up rate is about 85%. Due to the restriction of pre-festival logistics transportation, downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing.

Industry chain: Upstream, affected by factors such as weakening demand side, depot drainage in production area and accumulation in port reservoir area, methanol market is weaker and tidy. At present, the price of methanol is 2214 yuan/ton, up 0.18% in a week, down 28.2% compared with the same period last year. This week, acetate industry in downstream acetic acid is affected by the rising price of acetic acid, up slightly as a whole, but the trade is still relatively light and traders are cautious in buying. Be cautious and wait-and-see attitude. PTA spot market is affected by enterprise overhaul and futures upstream, and prices are gradually rising.

International: This week, the acetic acid Market in North America was affected by demand, slightly weakened in the week, now 625 U.S. dollars/ton; Asian acetic acid market was affected by the Chinese market, slightly warmed in the week, currently quoted 380-440 U.S. dollars/ton; European acetic acid market fell sharply in the week, at around 725 euros/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

At present, domestic acetic acid enterprises have low inventory and normal start-up of production. However, due to the approaching Spring Festival, the market gradually enters the shutdown period, and the intentions of reserve before the Festival are strong, but the actual turnover is flat.

Acetic acid analysts from business associations predict that the acetic acid market will be mainly stable in the near future.

Pavlodar, International Telegraph Agency, Jan. 23, Hapavlodar Electrolytic Aluminum Plant announced that in 2018, the company exported 240,000 tons of raw aluminium, an increase of 7.1% over the previous year, and planned to export 223,000 tons in 2019. At present, Kazakhstan’s main exporters include Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Poland, Turkey, Italy, Bulgaria, Croatia and Slovenia. In 2018, the company produced 258,400 tons of raw aluminium.

The Rotterdam phenol market closed stable on January 23, with CIF prices ranging from $1059.5 to $1064.5 per ton.