Price Trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of Yungui yellow phosphorus fell this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 22,000 yuan/ton on August 1 and 17,000 yuan/ton on August 9. The price fell by 22.73%.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week yellow phosphorus price returned rationally, and market prices continued to fall. At present, market demand is still light, market turnover is not strong, traders have a strong wait-and-see mood, downstream purchasing prices are depressed, and the market lacks support. At present, Yunnan yellow phosphorus plant quotes about 18,000 yuan per ton. The mainstream transaction price in Sichuan is about 15 500 yuan per ton. The main transaction price of yellow phosphorus in Guizhou is about 16000-15500 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: This week, the domestic phosphate ore market remained stable as a whole. The main ex-factory quotation range of Guizhou phosphate ore market is 400-500 yuan/ton. At present, the coke market is relatively stable and strong. The mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Panzhihua coke market in Sichuan is 2,080 yuan/ton, while the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Liupanshui coke market in Guizhou is 2,380 yuan/ton. The downstream phosphoric acid enterprises have low start-up, the demand is mostly wait-and-see, and the procurement is not active; the downstream pesticide enterprises have flat sales and limited market demand.

3. Future Market Forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts of the business and chemical branch believe that the overall demand for yellow phosphorus is still light, the downstream demand is mostly wait-and-see, the procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the price is expected to fall back to the state before the surge in the later period.

First, the trend of the market:

According to statistics, the price of phthalic anhydride declined slightly this week. The price of phthalic anhydride this weekend was 5900 yuan.ton, down 0.73% from 5943.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 16.16% from the same period last year. The phthalic anhydride in Shandong province is 5700-5800 yuan per ton self-lifting, the main stream of phthalic anhydride negotiation in Jiangsu province is 5800-6000 yuan per ton, and the market spot supply is normal; the naphthalene phthalic anhydride plant starts normally, and the current quotation is 5200-5400 yuan per ton.

II. Market analysis:

Products: This week’s domestic phthalic anhydride market prices fell slightly, last week due to the increase in orders from some manufacturers, the market ushered in a slight rise, this week’s phthalic anhydride market prices fell, the market opening rate of phthalic anhydride in the field maintained about 70%, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the field was sufficient, downstream factories maintained just in need of procurement, factory inventory was general, high-end. Transaction is blocked, the mainstream of on-site neighbourhood source negotiation is 5700-6000 yuan/ton, the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiation is 5200-5400 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 5700-5800 yuan/ton, the market price changes little, the quotation trend of enterprises in North China is temporarily stable, downstream construction is not high, on-demand procurement is dominant, wait-and-see mentality is relatively high. Concentrated, domestic phthalic anhydride plant operation is stable, phthalic anhydride on-site goods in general, some manufacturers downgraded the ex-factory quotation, phthalic anhydride price trend slightly declined.

Upstream: Recently, the execution price of phthalic anhydride upstream product, Sinopec o-phthalic acid, is 6000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction price is about 6000 yuan/ton. This week, the quotation of o-phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable, and the port supply is general. The price of raw materials mixed xylene in the upstream of phthalic acid remained volatile, the turnover of phthalic acid was normal, the stock of phthalic acid in the port was low, the quotation of phthalic acid external market was temporarily stable, the actual transaction price of imported phthalic acid was discussed in detail, the upstream price trend remained stable, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market slightly declined.

Downstream: DOP prices fell slightly in the downstream this week. Domestic DOP market prices fell at 7266.67 yuan/ton by the end of the week and 1.78% this week. Recently, in Zhejiang DOP market, merchants quoted about 7400 yuan/ton. Downstream prices declined slightly. Demand for upstream phthalic anhydride was limited, and the price of phthalic anhydride market was affected slightly.

Industry: Recent plasticizer industry market remains at a low level, terminal downstream demand has not changed much, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride has slightly declined.

3. Future market forecast:

Recently, the price trend of phthalic anhydride in the upstream has remained volatile, the DOP market in the downstream has declined, and the plasticizer industry is in a poor position. Business analysts believe that the market price trend of phthalic anhydride may maintain a low volatility, with prices ranging from 5800 to 5900 yuan/ton.

Price Trend

This week (8.05-8.09) the domestic 1_tin ingot market shocks higher, the domestic market average price at the beginning of the week at 134912.50 yuan/ton, weekend at 13632.50 yuan/ton, up 1.07%.

On August 9, the tin commodity index was 69.46, down 0.49 points from yesterday, down 30.71% from the peak of 100.25 points in the cycle (2011-09-05), and up 62.06% from the low of 42.86 points on December 09, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market Trend Analysis

Domestic market: This week, the domestic spot tin market shocks higher, as of Friday, the mainstream domestic spot tin prices in 135500-137000 yuan/ton, up about 1500 yuan/ton from the beginning of the week, an increase of 1.07%. From Monday to Wednesday, the spot tin market fluctuated at 135,000 yuan/ton. The market did not perform well and tended to be stable. Since Thursday, boosted by a sharp rise in the futures market, traders actively replenish their goods, the market has a better trading atmosphere, and prices have also risen. On Friday, the market returned to rationality, purchasing was soft and trading was light. Up to Friday, the Shanghai area suit brand Yunxi lifting water 800-1200 yuan/ton, ordinary Yunzi lifting water 500-1000 yuan/ton, small brand lifting water 200-500 yuan/ton.

Non-ferrous industry: This week, the performance of basic metals first restrained and then increased. The offshore renminbi “unexpectedly” broke seven, while the US Treasury Department classified China as a currency manipulator. China-US relations deteriorated further. Subjects such as stock markets and bonds in the global financial system suffered a systematic slump. Gold continued to soar. Commodities fell sharply at the beginning of the week. Then, when the US dollar fell, the market panicked. Emotions gradually recovered, commodities showed a low rebound, repair the upward trend, most of the weekend recovered some of the early week’s decline.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Next week’s economic data in Europe and the United States are still relatively concentrated, and worries in the macro environment are not recovering. This week’s low rebound has lifted most metals out of the trough. However, the sustained rebound still needs the promotion of each metal’s own fundamentals and the degree of favor of funds. We should be alert to the gradual withdrawal of large-scale capital into the market in the next week. Tin prices are expected to remain volatile.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the distribution price of sulphuric acid in Shandong rose slightly this week. The quotation rose from 225.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 227.50 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 2.50 yuan/ton, up 1.11%, down 48.88% from the same period last year. Overall, the sulfuric acid market rose this week, with the sulfuric acid commodity index of 35.41 on August 9.

II. Market Analysis

(1) Products:

This week, the prices of some sulphuric acid manufacturers in Shandong rose slightly, with fewer inventories and fewer downstream demand. The weekend quotation of Heze Jiangyuan is 230 yuan/ton, which is 10 yuan/ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Zouping Tianlu’s quotation is 60 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable; Jinan Yuanfei’s quotation is 450 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable.

(2) Industrial chain:

Recently, the domestic sulfur market has been declining; the downstream ammonium market is light, the new orders are not satisfactory, the atmosphere is not good, the diammonium market is relatively stable, the high level is strong, the sulfuric acid enterprises have multiple early orders, short-term start is insufficient, and the supply is slightly tight. This week, domestic sulphuric acid plants run smoothly, market supply is relatively tight, downstream gas purchases are general, market turnover is limited.

3. Future Market Forecast

After the adjustment in July, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the equipment has been repaired and the production capacity has increased. Upstream prices fell slightly, downstream purchases were general, and products went down under the contradiction between supply and demand. Business sulfuric acid analysts believe that the short-term market in Shandong Province, under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials, the sulfuric acid market tends to decline.

Price Trend

According to a large number of data monitored by business associations, the domestic R22 ex-factory price fell slightly this week. By the end of the week (8.02), the domestic R22 ex-factory price was 17,600 yuan/ton, 2.22% lower than the trend of 18,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week (7.29), and 4.86% lower than the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the domestic R22 factory price slightly declined. This year, the refrigerant market was slightly depressed. There was once a low price stalemate and the peak season was not strong. At present, R22 refrigerant production enterprises have stable installations, but the pressure of moving goods is too high, the stock expands to a certain extent, and the enterprises aim to make profits for delivery. From the market demand, downstream weakness continues, the peak season of refrigerant has passed, and the demand has only decreased but not increased. The price of basic raw materials for fluorine chemical industry has fallen, and the cost is difficult to support. The cost side of refrigerant is insufficient to support, which makes it unfavorable. According to the data monitoring of business associations, as of August 02, the price of Zhejiang Juhua Co., Ltd. was 17,800 yuan/ton, Quzhou Jiuzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. was 17,000 yuan/ton, Shandong Yue’an New Materials Co., Ltd. was 18,000 yuan/ton, Zhejiang Lengwang Science and Technology Co., Ltd. was 17,000 yuan/ton, and Hunan Longxun Trade Co., Ltd. The company’s price is 16,000 yuan/ton, and the market price (business Association data) is mostly concentrated between 16,000 and 18,000 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The upstream product anhydrous hydrofluoric acid market trend slightly declined, the price at the end of the weekend (8.05) was 11 610 yuan/ton, down 3.25% from 12 000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week (7.29), up 5.23% year-on-year. Enterprises reflect that the current on-site hydrofluoric acid spot supply is sufficient, the recent on-site shopping situation is general, the price has declined, the refrigerant R22 support is weak. The domestic trichloromethane market of upstream products is weak. In recent days, the price of chloroform has fallen sharply. The overall supply of the market is still acceptable. Enterprises’shipments are smooth. Influenced by the low start of refrigerant market, the demand for trichloromethane is poor, and the chloroform market continues to weaken.

Large downstream air-conditioning enterprises maintain just demand, lack of enthusiasm for inventory, decline in refrigerant consumption, shortage of refrigerant demand, end of air-conditioning refrigeration year, drag down demand, decline in refrigerant consumption of R22 refrigerant, the phenomenon of weakness is difficult to change.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Refrigerant Analysts believe that the current refrigerant R22 peak season has passed, demand continues to decline, R22 market shocks down, continue to decline. The price of raw material hydrofluoric acid and trichloromethane has fallen, the cost side of refrigerants is insufficient, and the negative situation of oversupply in the market continues. In a word, the future market of R22 refrigerants is mainly characterized by low oscillation.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the price of pure benzene in China has basically declined this week, with a small decline. This week Sinopec continued to bid, with Sinopec lowering its price by about 150 yuan/ton from last week. This week, the lowest price of pure benzene appeared on Friday at 5000-5350 yuan/ton.

II. Analytical Review

1. Products: Huaxing Petrochemical started quoting this week. Following last week’s weaker market for pure benzene, Sinochem’s pure benzene companies continued to lower the price of pure benzene starting this week. Sinopec continued to bid at a high price of 5350 yuan per ton. Pure benzene port inventory continued to decline this week, but the downstream demand for pure benzene was insufficient to follow up, and market participants mostly held a wait-and-see attitude.

2. Crude oil: crude oil showed an inverted V trend this week, rising slowly at first and falling sharply at the close of Thursday. At the beginning of the week, oil prices were heading for a better trend, influenced by the Fed’s desire to cut interest rates and the persistence of risks in the supply of crude oil in the Persian Gulf. On Thursday, news came that the United States would impose a 10% tariff on $300 billion worth of Chinese imports starting in September. Market participants were worried that the international oil price had fallen sharply. Brent fell 4.66% this week from last week, while WTI fell 4% from last week.

3. Relevant industries: The impact of low prices from hydrobenzene made the pure benzene in East China begin to fall in the second half of the week, aggravating the price difference between Sinopec’s listing price and East China’s spot price, and the expected listing price or pressure drop in the market. However, the listing price which has not been adjusted for a long time still forms a certain support for the market, and the decline is limited.

4. External Disc: The downstream styrene start-up load in the United States has not changed much, and demand remains strong. However, with the successive arrival of products in the United States and the mostly low-inventory operation, the local prices have fallen sharply in recent months, thus affecting market confidence. However, the long-term prices continue to be firm, the overall change is not significant, and the overall impact on Korean resources has been felt. The force is moderate.

3. Future Market Forecast

1. Crude oil: The United States may increase tariff rates on Chinese goods, increase trade risk concerns, override the Fed’s interest rate cuts, and oil prices may still fall next week.

2. Domestic market: At present, domestic demand for pure benzene is weak, and pure benzene is facing shipment pressure. In addition, the sudden drop in crude oil has created a negative stimulus to the mentality of the bulk market, and pure benzene is still expected to decline.

Considering comprehensively, pure benzene market or weak operation next week.

The World Gold Association released the second quarter of 2019 Gold Demand Trends Report, and analyzed the latest gold demand trends. In the second quarter of 2019, global gold demand grew to 1,123 tons, an 8% year-on-year increase. This growth is mainly due to the continued purchases of gold by central banks and the increase of gold ETF inflows. With the first quarter of this year’s data, gold demand rose to 2,181.7 tons in the first half of 2019, an 8% increase over the previous year.

Key data

The total demand for gold increased by 8% to 1,123 tons in the current quarter, compared with 1,038.8 tons in the same period in 2018.

Total demand for gold consumption fell to 750.3 tons in the current quarter, compared with 769.0 tons in the same period in 2018.

The total demand for gold investment in this quarter was relatively stable, increasing by 1% to 285.8 tons, compared with 282 tons in the same period in 2018.

Global demand for gold jewelry grew by 2% to 531.7 tons in the current quarter, compared with 520.8 tons in the same period in 2018.

The total demand of central banks increased by 47% to 224.4 tons in the current quarter, compared with 152.8 tons in the same period in 2018.

Total demand in the technology sector fell 3% to 81.1 tons in the current quarter, compared with 83.3 tons in the same period in 2018.

Total gold supply rose to 1,186.7 tons in the current quarter, compared with 1,121.3 tons in the same period in 2018.

The supply of recovered gold increased by 9% to 314.6 tons in the current quarter, compared with 289.8 tons in the same period in 2018.

Expert Interpretation

Wang Lixin, Managing Director of the World Gold Association:

From this quarter’s data, central bank purchases became the highlight of China’s gold demand in the second quarter of 2019. China’s gold reserves grew by 74 tons in the first half of the year, of which net monthly purchases increased slightly in the second quarter, bringing the average monthly purchases in 2019 to 12.3 tons from 11 tons in the first quarter. Reserve diversification and demand for safe and liquid assets are the main driving forces of central bank purchasing funds.

It is worth mentioning that, driven by the exhibition activities of the gold jewelry industry and the continuous innovation and development of high-end products, even in the traditional off-season, China’s demand for gold jewelry in April and May is relatively optimistic. In addition, consumers continue to pay attention to the more innovative and harder high-end products developed by the industry in recent years. But on the other hand, because of the rapid and sustained rise in gold prices in the short term, it may restrain gold consumption and investment demand. Highlights of the report

In the second quarter of 2019, central banks around the world purchased 224.4 tons of gold. This led to a total of 374.1 tons of central bank purchases in the first half of the year – the largest net increase in the world’s official gold reserves in our 19-year quarterly historical data. Influenced by the recent sustained trend, more central banks joined the ranks of purchasing funds, mainly for emerging market countries.

Global gold ETF holdings grew by 67.2 tons in the second quarter, reaching a six-year high of 2,548 tons. The main drivers of this growth include continued geopolitical instability, pigeon comments on monetary policy by some central banks, and a sharp rise in gold prices in June.

Demand for gold jewelry in India recovered strongly in the second quarter, rising 12% to 168.8 tons. Busy wedding season and steadily growing holiday sales boosted demand for gold jewelry in the region, while the sharp rise in gold prices in June stalled its consumption of gold jewelry. Rising demand in India pushed global demand for gold jewelry up 2% year-on-year in the quarter, totaling 531.7 tons.

Global investment demand for gold bars and coins fell 12% to 218.6 tons in the second quarter. In the first quarter, investment demand for gold bars and coins was equally weak, resulting in only 476.9 tons of gold bars and coins in the first half of 2019, the lowest half-year demand in a decade. China’s investment demand for gold bars and coins fell 29% year-on-year in the second quarter, which is the main reason for the decline in global aggregate.

Global gold supply grew by 6% in the second quarter to 1,186.7 tons. Driven by the sharp rise in gold prices in June, gold production reached an all-time high of 882.6 tons in the second quarter, while recovery jumped 9% to 314.6 tons. Overall, global gold supply reached 2,323.9 tons in the first half of the year, the highest level since 2016.

Gold prices soared to their peak in years. Gold climbed in June, breaking through $1,400 an ounce for the first time since 2013. Gold prices in other currencies rose more significantly. The main factors driving up the current round of gold prices include interest rate cuts and political uncertainty, while strong gold purchases by global central banks are also an important support for gold prices.

Price data

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the market price of refined oil rose sharply in July. Domestic gasoline price was 6453 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 7.52% from 6107 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Domestic diesel price was 6582 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 7.77% from 6002 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: The domestic gasoline and diesel market rose sharply in July when the whole country entered the hot summer and the demand of domestic refined oil market improved markedly. In addition, the international crude oil showed a trend of oscillation and warming, and the third batch of refined oil export quota was lowered.

Industry chain: In July, tense U.S. -Iraq relations, the Gulf of Mexico storm, worries about oversupply and other air news intertwined. The international crude oil market rises first, then falls and then rises, showing a general trend of shock and warming, supporting the trading mentality of the gasoline and diesel industry.

On the market side: Firstly, in the hot summer season, the use of oil for automobile air conditioning increased in summer, the use of oil for industrial, mining, infrastructure and other outdoor projects increased greatly in the northern region, and the market demand improved; secondly, the news of refinery equipment overhaul and product oil reduction came frequently, and the third batch of product oil export quota was lowered to alleviate the situation of domestic oversupply; Finally, the main unit gradually substantial pallet market, refined oil prices continue to climb, leading to the rise of domestic refined oil prices.

3. Future Market Forecast

Lu Xingjun, an analyst of refined oil products from business associations, believes that the international crude oil market is heading for a better position and that the demand for refined oil in August will not decrease. It is expected that the price of domestic refined oil market will continue to rise in August.

Price Trend

The domestic BDO market has a narrow upward margin. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the domestic BDO market price was 9200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and the average domestic BDO market price was 9280 yuan/ton at the weekend, with a 0.82% increase in the week and a 20.78% decrease in the price over the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the domestic BDO market is going up narrowly. The price of raw material calcium carbide is high, the cost pressure is strong, and last weekend, because of the explosion of Yima plant, Kaixiang Henan carried out safety investigation, BDO device stopped, aggravating the market price mentality, some factories borrowed the opportunity to raise quotations, low-price supply reduced. Although the demand for PBT and PTMEG in the main downstream has not improved significantly, the enthusiasm of inquiries in the spot market has improved slightly compared with the earlier period, and the focus of discussion has moved up narrowly. Up to now, the mainstream price of East China market is 8500-8900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week’s low end. This week, the domestic BDO market started at 47.9%, with a weekly output of about 19911 tons.

In terms of installation, this week, 110,000 tons/year BDO plant in Kaixiang, Henan Province, was stopped for safety checks due to the explosion of Yima, and the restart time was uncertain; 2 sets of 100,000 tons/year plant in Cathay Pacific, Xinjiang, planned to replace catalysts in the near future; 210,000 tons/year BDO plant in Tianye, Xinjiang, except for the normal operation of the first phase, other devices were not restarted for the time; The 10,000-ton/year BDO plant stopped for overhaul on June 20. It was heard that it restarted last week. The 80,000-ton/year BDO plant in Yizheng Dalian was overhauled from the end of June to the end of July. Phase I and Phase II BDO units of Meck are running normally. Phase III parking overhaul is scheduled for July 2 and start-up is planned for July 25. About 60% of Dongyuan 100,000 tons/year plant in Inner Mongolia started operation, and the maintenance plan was delayed.

On the market side, as of Friday (7.26), the BDO market in East China digested the increase. Factory price-keeping mentality, downstream follow-up on demand, Mike Phase III plan to start, supply or will increase again, difficult to rise, market digestion, temporary stable operation. The BDO market in South China has been sorted out on a wait-and-see basis. Manufacturers’price-keeping intentions, downstream just need to enter the market, some repair factories restart, industry wait-and-see mood is strong, digestion of the main increase.

Industry chain: raw materials, calcium carbide, domestic calcium carbide market this week out of the regional increase, the actual factory turnover narrow decline, market wait-and-see atmosphere cautious. This week, the production of calcium carbide installations in Shaanxi has been improved and the supply has been enhanced. The supply of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia has been increased due to the impact of supporting PVC maintenance. The transportation in Wuhai and Ningxia is under pressure and the dangerous vehicles are hard to find, which has slowed down the delivery speed and increased the inventory of some production enterprises. Limited electricity occurs from time to time in Wumeng area, resulting in regional disparities in carbide arrivals in Shandong, Hebei and Northeast China. Purchasing enterprises raise purchase prices to attract supply. Methanol: The market of methanol fell this week. The mainstream price in Inner Mongolia is from 1700 yuan/ton to 1630 yuan/ton. Half of the shipments this week are from manufacturers, mostly filling empty lists. At present, manufacturers’inventories continue to increase and traders are not optimistic about the market next week. The mainstream price in Guanzhong this week ranged from 1810 yuan/ton to 1700 yuan/ton. Due to the weak downstream demand and the small number of transport vehicles, some orders are still issued. Due to the overhaul of Xianyang Chemistry and Shaanxi Weihua factories next week, there will be some support for the local market.

3. Future Market Forecast

Cost support is strong, plus last Friday due to the explosion of Yima Gasification Plant, Kaixiang plant parking for safety investigation, and transportation is also hindered, the factory is booming market mentality intensified, some factories increased offer, spot market downstream part of the market to replenish warehouses, the enthusiasm of inquiry has improved, just need small units and high prices, the focus of negotiations is narrow. It’s going up. However, the main downstream demand has not shown signs of improvement, and there is a strong wait-and-see mood. BDO analysts of business associations expect that the domestic BDO market will digest the growth rate mainly next week, but they do not rule out a steady upward trend, focusing specifically on device dynamics and downstream demand changes.

Price Trend

This week, the domestic butadiene market showed a marked upward trend. Business Association monitoring showed that the domestic butadiene market price was 8545 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 8890 yuan/ton at the weekend. The price rose by 4.03% in the week, falling by 28.13% compared with the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: This week, the domestic butadiene market rose strongly. Sinopec’s East China supply price increased by 700 yuan/ton to 9300 yuan/ton, and Liaotong’s chemical bidding base price increased by 500 yuan/ton to 8810 yuan/ton. Due to the narrowing of the price gap between internal and external markets, it is difficult for imports to effectively supplement the domestic market, and some of them are exported to Korea for arbitrage, which aggravates the shortage of domestic supply. Sinopec’s East China supply price cycle has been continuously rising, which has brought a significant boost to the spot market. Northeast manufacturers export shrinkage, and long Tai downturn, Srbang plans to repair at the end of the month and other news release, boosting domestic butadiene spot market strong rise, although the downstream rubber market is weak, but the butadiene market is difficult to find low-price supply, some just need passive follow-up. However, with the price rising, domestic merchants shipped relatively positively, and Fushun Petrochemical Restart of export led to pressure on the high market. On Thursday, the price increase of Liaotong Chemical Trading was not good, and the high-end price of the market fell slightly. The delivery price of high-grade products in Shandong is 9300 yuan/ton, which is 500 yuan/ton annually higher than that in East China. The delivery price of organic products in East China is 9600-9700 yuan/ton, which is 600-700 yuan/ton annually higher than that in East China.

Industry chain: downstream synthetic rubber, styrene-butadiene rubber, this cycle, domestic dry rubber factory price slightly increased, styrene-butadiene rubber 1502 billing price 10100-10150 yuan/ton, 50-100 yuan/ton higher than last period; oil-filled styrene-butadiene 1712 billing price 9150-9350 yuan/ton, 100 yuan/ton higher than last period. The price of Qilu 1502E increased by 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous period, and the price of Qilu 1712 increased by 9 300 yuan/ton, and 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. Cis-butadiene rubber, this cycle, domestic high cis-butadiene mainstream ex-factory prices stabilized in the range of 10,320-10,500 yuan/ton; market mainstream offer prices rose to 10,500-11,000 yuan/ton, compared with last week’s mainstream increase of 100-300 yuan/ton. SBS: Domestic SBS market oil glue low finishing, dry rubber road to small finishing.

3. Future Market Forecast

On the positive side, the external market is high, some goods are exported, and domestic suppliers’inventory is low. On the negative side, the market of synthetic rubber has been weak, the cis-butadiene plant of Jinzhou Petrochemical Company has not been restarted smoothly, and the butadiene in Northeast China has a lot of margin for continuous export. The release of good news on the supply side boosted the market, but with the high price, the export enthusiasm of northern manufacturers increased, and the next cycle of Fushun Petrochemical restart export, spot supply has a certain incremental expectation. The market of downstream synthetic rubber has improved slightly, supported by Tianguo futures and butadiene high, but the increase is far less than that of butadiene. The profit of production enterprises is still under pressure. Therefore, it is difficult for butadiene market to get demand support in the short term. Under the expectation of supply increment, the resistance of the market to continue to rise is more obvious. Business analysts expect that the domestic butadiene market will be consolidated after the short-term rise in the market. If the supply in Northeast China continues to increase, the risk of decline will be higher. It is suggested to pay attention to the price of manufacturers and export situation.