1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the price of pure benzene stopped falling and rose this week. On January 3, the price of pure benzene was 3970-4400 yuan / ton (average price 4224 yuan / ton); on this Sunday (January 10), the price of pure benzene was 4170-4550 yuan / ton (average price 4424 yuan / ton), up 200 yuan / ton or 4.73% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

Crude oil rose rapidly this week, and cost support strengthened; in addition, pure benzene in Asia rose widely; downstream styrene price rebounded, and pure benzene surged higher this week. This week, Sinopec’s price of pure benzene was increased by 150 yuan / ton to 4550 yuan / ton, and the price in parts of North China was increased to 4350 yuan / ton. On Monday, the total inventory of pure benzene in East China port was about 2000 tons higher than last week.

In terms of external market, driven by the demand for pure benzene in Europe and the United States, pure benzene in Asia rose broadly this week. On Friday (January 8), South Korea imported 664.67 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, up 39 US dollars / ton or 6.23% compared with December 31; East China imported 642 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, up 31.5 US dollars / ton or 5.16% compared with December 31.

In terms of crude oil, on January 5, OPEC + reached an agreement to adjust the daily crude oil production. In addition, Saudi Arabia said that it would reduce the daily crude oil production by an additional 1 million barrels in February and March, and the oil price rose rapidly boosted by the favorable situation. Compared with December 31, Brent rose by $4.805/barrel, or 9.52%; WTI rose by $3.63/barrel, or 7.46%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 24.38% and WTI decreased by 19.98%.

Downstream: styrene: the price of styrene rose with the rise of crude oil. After entering January, the inventory of northern styrene enterprises decreased, the impact on East China arbitrage weakened, the price of production enterprises rose again, the cost support and some downstream replenishment transactions supported the market to open higher. On Friday (January 8), the price of sample enterprises was 6550 yuan / ton, up 483.33 yuan / ton or 7.97% compared with last Friday, and down 8.6% compared with the same period last year.

Aniline: the price of aniline is stable this week, and the operating rate is higher than last week. At present, Jinmao aniline plant is restarted and normally shipped, and aniline supply is expected to increase in the later stage. On January 8, the price of aniline was 7800-7900 yuan / ton in Shandong and 8000-8100 yuan / ton in Nanjing.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the international crude oil news is good, and there is still the possibility of rising next week. In the later stage, we will continue to pay attention to the global new epidemic situation and vaccine progress, OPEC +’s latest policy on production reduction, geopolitical risks in the Middle East and global economic recovery.

Crude oil and external support is good, downstream styrene still has room to rise in the short term, and pure benzene is expected to rise next week. Later still need to pay attention to pure benzene inventory changes, styrene trend.

1、 Price trend

This week, the EPS market turned better, with obvious cost support. Some of the EPS were good, and the circulation speed of market sources was accelerated. Some terminals replenished goods moderately, but overdrawn some future demand. As of January 7, Jiangsu Jianlong’s ordinary material was 8100 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with December 31, and its fuel was 8400 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with December 31.

2、 Market analysis

Ex factory: Zhongshan Taida EPS ex factory price is stable, material acceptance price is 8600 yuan / ton, fuel acceptance price is 8900 yuan / ton, firm offer negotiation. On the demand side, the plate demand in Northeast and Northwest China has basically ended, Shandong, North China and some parts of central China still have a small part of plate demand, and the overall packaging demand in East China, South China and southwest China has weakened. It is expected that the market demand will remain weak next week.

3、 Future forecast

The EPS market is expected to be slightly weaker next week.

Recently, the domestic BDO spot market has been operating steadily, and only a few enterprises have announced the price of Xinyue’s external brand. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, as of January 7, the average price of domestic BDO producers was 13125 yuan / ton, which was stable on a month on month basis and increased by 33.98% on a year-on-year basis.

Some enterprises announced new settlement price and listing price:

Enterprise, settlement in December (bulk delivered), listing in January (bulk delivered)

Xinjiang Meike Chemical Co., Ltd. $12650 / T East China, $12800 / T South China (bulk water delivery), $13300 / T East China, and $13500 / T South China (bulk water delivery)

Xinjiang Lanshan Tunhe Chemical Co., Ltd. $12650 / T East China, 12800 / T South China (bulk water to be delivered) 13300 / T East China, 13500 / T South China (bulk water to be delivered)

The domestic BDO market is stable. During the day, the prices of raw materials calcium carbide and methanol both went down, the profit margin increased, and the factories pursued profit maximization. At the same time, the inventory pressure was not big, so they were determined to support the market. Middlemen hold limited sources of goods, trading enthusiasm is not high, but yield profits prudently, continue to quote high. The whole downstream started generally. Although some factories have slightly increased their intention to prepare goods, they are resistant to high prices. It is difficult for the supply and demand sides to have obvious fluctuations in the market through negotiation.

In terms of facilities, affected by natural gas, Sichuan Tianhua and Chongqing Jianfeng have dropped to 70%; Kaixiang is expected to restart on January 7. Inventory pressure is not big, spot supply is limited.

At present, the support of the cost side is weakened, Kaixiang is about to restart, the supply and storage increment is expected, which is beneficial to the air and downstream mentality, and the procurement is cautious. BDO business analysts expect that in the short term, domestic BDO market is mainly in a stalemate.

On January 5, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market prices rose sharply, with the settlement price of the main contract at $49.93/barrel, up $2.31 or 4.85%. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose sharply, the settlement price of the main contract was 53.60 US dollars / barrel, or 2.51 US dollars or 4.91%. International oil prices soared on Tuesday, with WTI and Brent crude oil up nearly 5%, mainly due to Saudi Arabia’s unexpected announcement that it will voluntarily reduce production in February and March, and other OPEC + member countries maintaining stable production.

On Monday, at the ministerial meeting of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC +) and its allies (OPEC +), the meeting was temporarily suspended due to the lack of consensus. Affected by this, the oil price briefly recovered and closed down. At the supplementary meeting on Tuesday, there was good news. The results of the meeting are as follows: OPEC + will continue to maintain its current total production in February and March. As part of the agreement, Saudi Arabia will voluntarily reduce production by an additional 1 million B / D in these two months. Most OPEC oil producing countries will keep their production unchanged in response to the new round of blockade caused by the new epidemic, Russia and Kazakhstan In February and March, the yield was increased successfully, but it was mainly controllable. Affected by the news, the oil price responded quickly and rose sharply.

In addition, it is reported that Iran’s seizure of a South Korean ship has also made the situation even more tense. Iran said that due to US sanctions, its US $7 billion funds have been frozen in several South Korean banks. This behavior is estimated to be retaliatory measures. Market participants once again expressed concern about the safety of oil transportation roads in the Gulf sea. If the situation does not ease quickly, the transportation may continue to be blocked Continued positive oil prices.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventory data is also positive. Data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday showed that U.S. crude oil inventory fell last week and refined oil inventory rose. Crude oil inventories fell by 1.7 million barrels in the week ended January 1, after analysts predicted a 1.3 million barrel drop. However, the inventory of refined oil products increased unexpectedly, and the gasoline inventory increased by 5.5 million barrels, which is estimated to increase by 596000 barrels, indicating that the fuel demand situation is still not optimistic, the prospect of economic recovery is still uncertain, and the oil price is still an important factor in the later stage.

According to the business news agency, the recent oil price long short environment is relatively complex, and the supply and demand side has basically maintained a balanced state. On the one hand, the OPEC + production reduction policy has effectively supported the oil price, but affected by the epidemic, the blockade measures of some European countries have also hindered the recovery of fuel demand. On the other hand, with the advance of vaccination and the recent geopolitical uncertainty in Iran, it is expected that the oil price will still rise further.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, on January 1, the average quoted price of domestic n-butanol was 5833 yuan / ton, and on June 30, the average quoted price of domestic n-butanol was 5950 yuan / ton. Compared with January 1, the average quoted price in the first half of the year was increased by 117 yuan / ton, or 2% in the first half of the year. On December 31, the average quoted price of domestic n-butanol was 9366 yuan / ton, which was 3416 yuan / ton higher than that on June 30, with an increase of 57.42%. From January 1 to December 31, the annual price of n-butanol increased by 3533 yuan / ton, or 60.57%.

According to the monthly fluctuation chart of n-butanol from January to December in 2020, it can be seen that n-butanol will only decline in February, March and July in 2020. The biggest decline was in March, with an overall decline of 20.12%, and the biggest increase was in November, with an overall rise of 38.23%. The lowest price of the whole year was on April 4, the average quotation price of domestic n-butanol market was 4300 yuan / ton, the highest price of the whole year was on December 22, the average quotation price of domestic n-butanol market was 10000 yuan / ton, the maximum amplitude of the whole year was 132.56%.

Domestic n-butanol market weak in the first half of the year

In the first half of 2020, the domestic n-butanol market is weak as a whole. From January to June, the overall trend of n-butanol is “W”, with similar prices at the beginning and end, and two low prices in the middle market.

In January, the domestic n-butanol market was driven by the increase of downstream purchasing demand before the Spring Festival, and the overall market trend was strong and stable. In February, after the Spring Festival, affected by the logistics and transportation conditions and the market environment, the n-butanol market demand weakened, the trading volume was weak, the factory started low, and the supply and demand were weak. N-butanol went down all the way, and the decline continued until March. The n-butanol market continued to move forward in a weak way. The mentality of the industry was depressed by the international crude oil. In addition, the downstream start-up load increased slowly, and the propylene raw material decreased According to the data monitoring, the reference average price of n-butanol in China fell to 4366 yuan / ton on March 31. Compared with the price on January 1, the market price of n-butanol in the first quarter of 2020 fell by 1467 yuan / ton, or 25.14%.

In April, on the first two days of the month, n-butanol continued to decline slightly. On April 4, the average quoted price of domestic n-butanol market dropped to 4300 yuan / ton, which was the lowest price in 2020 and the first low in the first half of the year. After the Qingming Festival, the transaction atmosphere of n-butanol market increased. The enthusiasm of downstream butyl users for purchasing low-cost goods in the market increased slightly. The sharp rise in the price of raw material propylene gave the industry strong confidence to raise the price. The n-butanol market rose all the way to the middle of April, and the domestic n-butanol rose to 5933 yuan / ton, up 35.88% in half a month. Then, with the impact of the decline of propylene market, the n-butanol market rose sharply and then fell rapidly again. As of April 30, the domestic n-butanol price fell below 5000 yuan / ton, with the average price reference at 4966 yuan / ton, meeting the second low in the first half of 2020.

After the labor day in May, the overall trend of domestic n-butanol market has warmed up. The market is all the way up, the downstream purchasing atmosphere is positive, the raw material support is strengthened, the supply pressure is small, the upstream and downstream transmission is smooth, and the industry is full of confidence. Throughout may, the n-butanol market quotation is all the way up. In June, at the beginning of the month, affected by the excessive inventory of n-butanol in some areas, some factories gave up profits to ship, and the offer price of n-butanol went down. Then, the rise of propylene gave support to the cost of n-butanol, and n-butanol stopped falling upward. The factory’s operation was low, the spot was tight, the market inquiry atmosphere was good, and the center of gravity of n-butanol kept moving up. As of June 30, according to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 5950 yuan / ton, which was 1600 yuan / ton higher than that on April 1, with an increase of 36.26% in the second quarter. Compared with January 1, the average price in the first half of the year increased by 117 yuan / ton, or 2% in the first half of the year.

In the second half of 2020, the market offer of n-butanol will exceed 10000 yuan / ton to meet the highest point of the whole year

In July and August of the second half of 2020, the overall market trend of n-butanol is general, basically maintaining the high price of the first half of the year, and continuing to rise is not realized. The market of n-butanol rose steadily in September and October. The highlight time of n-butanol market was two months at the end of the year. The market of n-butanol rose sharply in November and December.

In July, the overall market of n-butanol in China fell due to the delay of maintenance of some factories, the increase of supply in the short term and the low purchasing sentiment in the downstream. In August, the n-butanol market began to rise steadily under the support of rising raw materials and low inventory. In late August, affected by the weakening demand for tourism, the n-butanol market rose weakly and maintained stable operation. On August 31, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 5700 yuan / ton. In September, with the arrival of Jinjiu, the domestic n-butanol market rose steadily. The high level of raw materials supported the cost of n-butanol, the downstream replenishment was good, the market transaction atmosphere turned better, and the supply pressure was small. Driven by multiple positive factors, the transaction center of n-butanol kept moving up. In the last ten days, the mainstream quotation of n-butanol market continued to rise, boosted by the pre Festival stock and tight supply. On September 30, the average reference price of n-butanol was 6333 yuan / ton, up 11.11% per month and 5.56% in the third quarter.

After the National Day in October, the n-butanol market continued to rise in September, and the focus of transaction moved steadily to the high end again. At the end of the month, affected by the negative drop of downstream butyl acrylate products and the sharp drop of raw material propylene price, the order of n-butanol decreased, and the price declined slightly. The overall increase in October was still dominant. As of October 31, the average reference price of n-butanol was 6583 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 3.95%.

Butanol rose 38.23% in November

In early November, the domestic n-butanol market was stable. 9. Since the 10th, downstream butyl users have entered the market to replenish n-butanol. The spot supply of n-butanol is tight. The quotation of n-butanol factory has started to rise, and the market of n-butanol has entered a broad upward channel. As of the 30th, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol has increased by 2517 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 38.23%, compared with that on November 1.

In December, the price of n-butanol reached the highest in the year, exceeding 10000 yuan / ton

Since December 3 and 4, under the high price, the downstream demand has weakened, and the n-butanol market has fluctuated downward. Since late December, affected by the emergency overhaul and shutdown of foreign n-butanol production plants, the export of n-butanol has increased, the demand for n-butanol has increased, the market has continued to rise, the purchasing atmosphere is good, and the spot is tight. As of December 21, the average ex factory price of n-butanol has risen to 10016 yuan / ton, a new high in the year, and the high price continues for one week. Near the end of the month, it is affected by the weakening demand from downstream As of December 30, the reference average price of n-butanol in China was 9300 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 2.93%, a rise of 47.89% in the fourth quarter and an annual increase of 60.57%.

Future market forecast of n-butanol in China

With the advent of new year’s day and Spring Festival, n-butanol downstream replenishment has been started one after another. With the increase of demand, it is expected that the quotation of n-butanol plant will stop falling and stabilize in the short term, and the market center will maintain stable operation before the Spring Festival, with limited up and down adjustment.

The price of ethylene oxide remained stable this month, with the mainstream ex factory price of 7500 yuan / ton in East China, 7500 yuan / ton in South China, 7650 yuan / ton in North China, 7700 yuan / ton in Central China and 7450 yuan / ton to 7550 yuan / ton in Northeast China.

The high crude oil price consolidation promoted the ethylene price to remain at a high level. However, the downstream demand entered the traditional off-season. Affected by the cold weather and heavy pollution weather emergency response and other factors, the single manufacturer’s shipment was limited, the inventory gradually accumulated, and the trading enthusiasm was not high. Ethylene glycol went smoothly, inventory decreased, and the price was supported, but the impact on the market of ethylene oxide was limited. The Sanjiang plant has not yet heard the news of restart, and the tight market resources situation continues. At present, it seems that the market as a whole is still in a short silent state. After the good news from the downstream is transmitted to the upstream, the price of ethylene oxide may be expected to rise.

According to market participants, in order to balance the regional price difference, tomorrow, central China will drop 200 yuan / ton and North China will drop 150 yuan / ton.

Trade name: chlorinated paraffin

Latest price (December 30): 5166.67 yuan / ton

Analysis points on December 30, the overall trend of domestic chlorinated paraffin market was weak and stable, the price of upstream liquid paraffin was relatively stable, and the liquid chlorine market continued to decline. The overall market trading atmosphere of chlorinated paraffin was empty, traders were cautious in taking goods, and the wait-and-see mood was obvious. The downstream mainly purchased on demand, the market demand was poor, and the price was weak and stable. Business community chlorinated paraffin analysts believe that the overall market trading atmosphere of chlorinated paraffin is general, the overall output of chlorinated paraffin remains low, and the market still continues the situation of weak supply and demand. The price of chlorinated paraffin is expected to be stable in the short term.

Trade name: ammonium sulfate

Latest price (December 29): 560 yuan / ton

Analysis points: on December 29, ammonium sulfate continued to weaken, with a narrow downward trend. The main price of ammonium sulfate in Henan Province is about 530-570 yuan / ton. The main price of powdered ammonium sulfate in Hebei Province is about 600 yuan / ton, which is relatively stable. The mainstream ex factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Shandong Province is about 380-575 yuan / ton, slightly down. At present, it is 490-520 yuan / ton in Shanxi Province. The mainstream ex factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Hunan is about 700 yuan / ton, which is relatively stable. The price of domestic grade is mainly consolidated, and there is no obvious fluctuation for the time being. According to the ammonium sulfate analysts of the business club, the overall market trading atmosphere of ammonium sulfate is general, downstream manufacturers are about to disappear and dealers are mainly purchasing on demand, who can take it with you, the demand is limited, and the new orders are not good. It is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will be stable in the short term.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market was temporarily stable in December. By the end of the month, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 2880 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the price of 2880 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year increase of 23.48%.

In December, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market was mainly stable. The operation of domestic ammonium nitrate plants was stable. In the near future, the supply of goods on the site was normal. The goods on the site were in general, and the price trend on the site was stable. In the near future, the shipment market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and the downstream is purchased on demand. In the near future, the trend of nitro compound fertilizer in the downstream is stable. There are still many production stops in the domestic downstream civil explosive industry. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start to work normally, and the market price of ammonium nitrate remains stable. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 2500-2600 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2300-2400 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 3000-3300 yuan / ton.

The price trend of domestic concentrated nitric acid rose sharply in December. By the end of the month, the average price of domestic nitric acid was 2050 yuan / ton, up 13.89% from 1800 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. Shanxi Xinghua quoted 1950 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe quoted 2000 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai quoted 2200 yuan / ton. Anhui Audley quoted 1960 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic nitric acid plant has been running stably, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the delivery of goods in the market has increased. In December, the price of nitric acid market has risen sharply, and the price of raw nitric acid has risen, which has formed a certain positive support for the ammonium nitrate Market, and the price of ammonium nitrate Market has fluctuated at a high level.

The price of domestic liquid ammonia in the upstream market rose in December. By the end of the month, the price of liquid ammonia was 3290 yuan / ton, up 3.89% from 3166.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price rise in the domestic liquid ammonia market is mainly due to the large stability of the price of liquid ammonia, the support of the supply performance of large plants, the normal operation of the plant, and the reasonable inventory pressure. Affected by the current stability of the domestic urea market as a whole, especially due to the limited production in some parts of the country and the decline of the operating rate, the supply has brought some support. At present, the amount of ammonia in Shandong maintains the previous level, It is still in the middle and high level. In terms of the downstream, in the off-season of agricultural fertilizer, the terminal does not take delivery of the goods, there is no market in many places, the price of liquid ammonia rises slightly, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable in December.

In the near future, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry is general, and the market demand for ammonium nitrate is normal, but the market price of raw material ammonium nitrate has a certain supporting role, and the ammonium nitrate analysts of the business community think that the market price of ammonium nitrate will fluctuate in the later stage.

Price trend

The coming year of 2020 is not only full of challenges, but also full of opportunities in a year when the internal and external environment of the industry is more complicated. Just like this year’s rubber and plastic industry, all kinds of resistance did not stop the rapid development of the domestic rubber and plastic industry. According to the data of the business community’s block data list, most of the plastic products developed well this year. As of December 25, the average price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding sample enterprises was about 28900 yuan / ton, up 25.18% from the price level at the beginning of the year. This year, following the macroeconomic situation of last year and the serious imbalance between supply and demand of PA66, the market of this year will not go smoothly. Let’s review the market situation of PA66 in 2020 and grasp the current price pulse.

As time goes by, it has been two years since PA66′s glory in 2018. From the results, the demand is weak due to the heavy pressure on downstream costs, and the imbalance between supply and demand obviously has an impact on 2020. In the beginning of this year, the public health events affected China. PA66 industry chain generally returns to work slowly, during which the market has price but no market. The stagnant trading is unfavorable to the future market, and the limited operating space restricts the spot price of PA66. By April this year, the PA66 industry chain had resumed production in an all-round way.

In the second quarter, the load of PA66 manufacturers returned to normal. After the previous market plunge, the current price was low and the supply and demand were not prosperous. On the contrary, the operating rate does not fall but rises, and the inventory pressure gradually increases. Similarly, PA66 spot supply has consistently been adequate. The background of imbalance between supply and demand met the off-season consumption of engineering plastics. On June 8, the average price of engineering plastics fell to an annual low of 18600 yuan / ton, 19.44% lower than the price level at the beginning of the year. At that time, it was difficult to see the turning point in the second half of the year.

Due to the lack of confidence in the future market, as early as June, the domestic PA66 chip factory began to reduce the negative production. The operating rate of Shenma industry was about 80%. Half of the units of Huafeng Group were shut down, half of the units of Dandong Youfu technology were shut down, and even the production of Liaoyang Xingjia was directly shut down. So far in July, PA66 stopped falling and ran in shock. The situation of oversupply of spot goods has partially changed, but the stock in the market has been digested. PA66 industry market adjustment gear began to turn, and the time is coming to the traditional peak season “golden nine silver ten”.

In September, the operating rate of domestic PA66 did not change much, and the shortage of goods in the market began to appear. Orders follow-up speed gradually accelerated, stock boom before the festival pushed up demand, BASF, a large foreign manufacturer, announced several times to increase the price of PA66 industry chain products in the Asia Pacific region. During this period, DuPont, Randic and other large factories also followed up, and the news of direct price increase was announced. PA66 market began to pick up. During the period, the tepid adipic acid market was also driven by PA66 and pure benzene market, with adipic acid in East China rising 5.14% in October. Due to the shortage of supply, the inventory position of polymerization plant is on the low side. Due to the task of supplying core old customers, the on-site supply is more tight than it seems.

In the fourth quarter, the domestic epidemic prevention work was stable, and the market ushered in a restorative growth. The purchase and sales volume of terminal products increased significantly, among which the home appliance and automobile industry made great efforts. PA66 has been trading at the same level as the traditional peak market. The increase was concentrated in the first and middle of November, with a total increase of 30.24%. At the end of the year, the price of PA66 tends to be stable, the replenishment operation of downstream factories tends to be rigid demand, and the price is high and firm.

Business analysts believe that: in 2020, the domestic market of PA66 looks like looking for the moon from the bottom of a haystack, and the price will be suppressed first and then increased, achieving a quarter of the increase in the whole year. The contradiction of oversupply that plagued PA66 in the past two years was eased in the middle of the year. At present, the production scheduling of PA66 enterprises is smooth, and the price is running steadily. PA66 industry chain has developed steadily this year, and the future is promising.