Price Trend

According to the data monitoring of business associations, zinc prices continued to fall in August, but there was no upward trend in zinc market. As of August 23, the price of zinc was 18840.00 yuan/ton, down 3.68% from 19560.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 12.23% from the same period last year.

II. Market Trend Analysis

Domestic Zinc Production

Date: Monthly output (10,000 tons) cumulative output (10,000 tons) year-on-year growth (percent) cumulative growth (percent)
July 2019 51.2 343.8 17.4 6.1
June 2019 51.3 281.5 10.3 2.3
May 2019 48 226.9 7.4-0.6
April 2019 46.5 176.5-0.4-4.4
March 2019 45.3 130.6 0.4-5.1
February 2019 – 85.1 – 8.2
December 2018 50.9 568.1-1.7-3.2
November 2018 52 517.7-7-3.3
October 2018 50.1 465.2-7.6-3.1
September 2018 45.6 414.6-10.1-2.6
August 2018 43.1 369.5-7.9-1.4
July 2018 43.9 325.9-3.5-0.6
June 2018 47.5 282-5 0
May 2018 45.7 234.5 0.4 1.6
April 2018 48.1 190.2 4.8 2.8
March 2018 46.9 142 0 1.7
February 2018 – 95.7 – 2.5
December 2017 57.6 622 7.3-0.7
November 2017 60.3 565.3 7.5-1.3
October 2017 57.7 505.4 3.8-2.1
September 2017 53.7 449.4-2.7-2.5
August 2017 49.4 395.7-4.6-2.3
July 2017 47.6 346.2-6.3-2
In 2019, the production of zinc increased month by month, and the domestic zinc production increased greatly. The supply of zinc in China changed from insufficient supply to excess supply. As of July 2019, zinc production has increased by 6.1% year-on-year. The supply of zinc is excessive, and the price of zinc in the future is not optimistic.

Housing fever abates and zinc demand is expected to decline

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that real estate investment, sales, funds and other data show a downward trend from January to July. The investment in real estate development increased by 10.6% year on year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.3 percentage points compared with the first half of the year; the new housing construction area of real estate development enterprises increased by 9.5% and the growth rate dropped by 0.6 percentage points; the capital in place of real estate development enterprises increased by 7.0%, and the growth rate fell by 0.2 percentage points; the sales area of commercial housing was 887.83 million square meters, down by 1.6 percentage points over the same period of last year. 3%; the area for sale of commercial housing is 498.76 million square meters, which is 2.86 million square meters less than that at the end of June, down 8.4% from the same period last year; the area for sale has been reduced for seven consecutive months, with the area for sale falling 500 million square meters for the first time in six years. The overall decline in real estate data, the demand for non-ferrous metals has declined significantly, and the demand for zinc has declined.

Car consumption fell sharply in July

In July, car sales fell by 2.6%, showing a drop from a positive growth of 17.2% to a decline of 2.6%. Because of the change of emission standards in June, many manufacturers and distributors took many promotional activities in June, which led to a 17.2% increase in automobile sales in that month. The automobile consumption in the future was overdrawn by the consumption front, and the demand for zinc in the automobile industry declined.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Bai Jiaxin, a business analyst, believes that domestic zinc production has increased month by month, and zinc production has increased substantially in 2019. Zinc market has gradually changed from short supply to over demand. On the downstream demand side, real estate performance is weak, demand for zinc market is negative, consumption of automobile industry is declining, and demand for zinc market is not good. Generally speaking, the supply of zinc in the future city increased steadily, the demand of zinc city was bad, and the supply and demand of domestic zinc city was in excess of demand. Zinc price has not enough power to rise and pressure to fall has increased. It is expected that zinc price will fluctuate and fall in the future, and the zinc market will be prosperous for a long time.

Price Trend

Aniline showed an upward trend this week, according to a large number of data from business associations. This week, the market price of aniline in Nanjing increased by 100 yuan/ton compared with last week, up 1.69% compared with last week; the market price in Shandong increased by 200 yuan/ton compared with last week, up by 3.63%. The mainstream price in Shandong is 5700 yuan/ton, while that in Nanjing is 6000 yuan/ton.

II. Analytical Review

Raw Material: This week’s pure benzene port stocks were reduced by about 0.5 million tons compared with last week, and domestic pure benzene stocks were also declining, pure benzene without inventory pressure. In addition, the rising price of pure benzene in the United States has affected the domestic market. Cost-effective support for aniline formation.

Products: Affected by last weekend’s typhoon, some aniline plants in Shandong were shut down, and King Jinling stopped for overhaul on November 11. This week’s supply of aniline has decreased, forming a good support.

III. Future Market Expectations

Raw material: Pure benzene downstream demand is weak, but Sinopec pure benzene inventory is low, the price is strong, has certain support for the domestic market. Moreover, there is still a price gap between pure benzo and the United States. The main purpose of Korea’s export resources is still the United States. China’s import resources are still relatively small, and the supply and demand side has not been improved.

Raw material prices are still likely to rise, and the cost-side support for aniline remains. It is expected that aniline will continue to rise next week.

Price Trend

Domestic aggregated MDI market continued to slump. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the average market price of aggregated MDI at the beginning of this week was 13 600 yuan/ton, and the average market price of domestic aggregated MDI at the weekend was 13 500 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price fell by 2.94%, rising by 6.88% annually, and the price fell by 30.47% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the aggregate MDI market first declined and then stopped declining, and then the focus of future market negotiations moved up. At the beginning of the week, Coase established a stable guidance price, limited supply, Ruian factory reduced the guidance price, less supply. Businessmen’s mentality was frustrated. The downturn began at the beginning of the week. There were many low-price deliveries among middlemen. However, the follow-up of real orders downstream was very poor. There were sporadic low-price transactions with small orders, and the market price fell faster. In midweek, Wanhua factories were again in the market, reducing the direct supply and distribution, strictly enforcing the settlement price of 14,000 yuan/ton in August. However, other factories did not respond for the time being, and their confidence was insufficient. However, considering the settlement price of the factories at the end of the month and their own profits, the market quotation increased slightly, but the downstream did not seem to buy the bill and the focus of negotiations was temporarily absent. Significant signs of upward movement. It is expected that next week’s market interval will be consolidated, with little room for ups and downs.

On the market side, as of Friday (8.16), the aggregated MDI market in North China remained stable. Negotiations on low prices in the market are still in place, and shipments are mainly accompanied by holders. Marketers’offer is stable or tentative to increase the quotation and wait for the closing of the transaction. The price range of aggregated MDI market in South China is volatile. North China and East China market providers tentative increase in quotations, South China market providers offer more stable, downstream pickup situation is very low, wait and see the market turnover. The aggregated MDI market in East China has strong shocks. On-site vendors tentatively raised their quotations and waited to see if the focus of the negotiations would move up. Sporadic inquiries from downstream traders are dominant.

Industry Chain: Raw Material, Pure Benzene: This week, the pure benzene market rebounded rapidly. At the beginning of the week, the US dollar price rose, the market expectations for Asian pure benzene price rose, and the pure benzene price began to rebound. Later, the Sino-US trade talks eased, the soaring crude oil further boosted the market mentality, and the price of pure benzene was rapidly rising. The demand for replenishment in mid-month led to a rebound in purchasing willingness, and the transaction price increased from 4950 yuan/ton to 5200 yuan/ton all the way in late August. With crude oil falling sharply, poor global economic data led to a resurgence of market worries, a rise in caution and a return to light buying, but the offer remained high near 5200 yuan per ton.

Aniline: Within a week, the domestic aniline Market showed a trend of rising in the north and falling in the south. In terms of raw materials, pure benzene rebounded at the bottom. The main reasons are the stabilization of crude oil and commodity prices, the hanging upside down of external plates, the decline of port stocks, and the sellout of traders, and the influence of typhoons on the parking or non-delivery of some refineries. The average tender price in Jinling, Shandong Province, increased by about 84 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the cost support was strengthened. In the aniline Market of North China, the production of aniline has been reduced due to parking and maintenance of Lanhua, Jinling King and Huatai. And there are rumors that Huatai may be delayed until October to restart, so downstream worries about rising prices, active inventory. Jinling aniline shipment pressure-free, not only Dongying plant 200,000 tons of plant load full, and led to a slight increase in North China price of 100 yuan/ton. However, due to the delay of contract shipment, East China enterprises began to release surplus cargo to the market. In order to promote shipment, some customers were given preferential treatment, and prices fell narrowly.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Perspective: Although some practitioners place their hopes on the upcoming traditional gold, silver and silver peak season and domestic anniversary celebrations to promote the downstream ahead of schedule, the degree of weakness in demand should be well known to all. Global economic sluggishness, from time to time release bad or favorable trade frictions between China and the United States, the domestic manufacturing index has been below normal for a long time, the downstream industry of polyurethane rigid foam industry chain has a low start-up rate, and the demand for raw material aggregated MDI will inevitably decrease. Even if the aggregated MDI products are monopolistic products with strong financial attributes, in the context of the global economic weakness, the main domestic manufacturers are also “cautious and difficult to move”. There is no fundamental mode of operation, which only depends on consumption hot events and supply-side alliances to influence the mindset of the industry and thus affect the price rise and fall. Only by starting from the supply and demand problems, reasonably solving the existing contradictions and rationalizing the profits of both sides, can the long-term healthy development of MDI industry be promoted. Business Association aggregate MDI analysts expect that short-term domestic aggregate MDI market price stabilization, weak consolidation, rise and fall dilemma.

Price Trend

Potassium sulphate prices have remained flat this week, according to business community price monitoring.

II. Market Analysis

Potassium sulphate domestic price focus is temporarily stable, new orders in the north-central market follow-up is not good, and hydrochloric acid inversion is serious, Mannheim production enterprises increased pressure. Henan and Hubei enterprises in central China are now offering 2900-3000 yuan/ton for 50 powder mainstream, 3000-3100 yuan/ton for 52 powder, 2950-3050 yuan/ton for 50 powder mainstream, and 3050-3200 yuan/ton for 52 powder mainstream, all of which are based on a single discussion. Potassium sulfate has limited market demand, low start-up and tight supply. The domestic potassium sulphate market is steadily advancing, the new purchase order of potassium sulphate is not well followed up, the output of sulphur grade fertilizer and production plan are declining, and most areas are loosening signals.

3. Future Market Forecast

Potassium sulfate analysts of business associations believe that the domestic market demand for potassium sulfate is limited in the near future, and the market is mainly weak and stable.

Price Trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of Yungui yellow phosphorus fell this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 22,000 yuan/ton on August 1 and 17,000 yuan/ton on August 9. The price fell by 22.73%.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week yellow phosphorus price returned rationally, and market prices continued to fall. At present, market demand is still light, market turnover is not strong, traders have a strong wait-and-see mood, downstream purchasing prices are depressed, and the market lacks support. At present, Yunnan yellow phosphorus plant quotes about 18,000 yuan per ton. The mainstream transaction price in Sichuan is about 15 500 yuan per ton. The main transaction price of yellow phosphorus in Guizhou is about 16000-15500 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: This week, the domestic phosphate ore market remained stable as a whole. The main ex-factory quotation range of Guizhou phosphate ore market is 400-500 yuan/ton. At present, the coke market is relatively stable and strong. The mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Panzhihua coke market in Sichuan is 2,080 yuan/ton, while the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Liupanshui coke market in Guizhou is 2,380 yuan/ton. The downstream phosphoric acid enterprises have low start-up, the demand is mostly wait-and-see, and the procurement is not active; the downstream pesticide enterprises have flat sales and limited market demand.

3. Future Market Forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts of the business and chemical branch believe that the overall demand for yellow phosphorus is still light, the downstream demand is mostly wait-and-see, the procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the price is expected to fall back to the state before the surge in the later period.

First, the trend of the market:

According to statistics, the price of phthalic anhydride declined slightly this week. The price of phthalic anhydride this weekend was 5900 yuan.ton, down 0.73% from 5943.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 16.16% from the same period last year. The phthalic anhydride in Shandong province is 5700-5800 yuan per ton self-lifting, the main stream of phthalic anhydride negotiation in Jiangsu province is 5800-6000 yuan per ton, and the market spot supply is normal; the naphthalene phthalic anhydride plant starts normally, and the current quotation is 5200-5400 yuan per ton.

II. Market analysis:

Products: This week’s domestic phthalic anhydride market prices fell slightly, last week due to the increase in orders from some manufacturers, the market ushered in a slight rise, this week’s phthalic anhydride market prices fell, the market opening rate of phthalic anhydride in the field maintained about 70%, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the field was sufficient, downstream factories maintained just in need of procurement, factory inventory was general, high-end. Transaction is blocked, the mainstream of on-site neighbourhood source negotiation is 5700-6000 yuan/ton, the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiation is 5200-5400 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 5700-5800 yuan/ton, the market price changes little, the quotation trend of enterprises in North China is temporarily stable, downstream construction is not high, on-demand procurement is dominant, wait-and-see mentality is relatively high. Concentrated, domestic phthalic anhydride plant operation is stable, phthalic anhydride on-site goods in general, some manufacturers downgraded the ex-factory quotation, phthalic anhydride price trend slightly declined.

Upstream: Recently, the execution price of phthalic anhydride upstream product, Sinopec o-phthalic acid, is 6000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction price is about 6000 yuan/ton. This week, the quotation of o-phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable, and the port supply is general. The price of raw materials mixed xylene in the upstream of phthalic acid remained volatile, the turnover of phthalic acid was normal, the stock of phthalic acid in the port was low, the quotation of phthalic acid external market was temporarily stable, the actual transaction price of imported phthalic acid was discussed in detail, the upstream price trend remained stable, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market slightly declined.

Downstream: DOP prices fell slightly in the downstream this week. Domestic DOP market prices fell at 7266.67 yuan/ton by the end of the week and 1.78% this week. Recently, in Zhejiang DOP market, merchants quoted about 7400 yuan/ton. Downstream prices declined slightly. Demand for upstream phthalic anhydride was limited, and the price of phthalic anhydride market was affected slightly.

Industry: Recent plasticizer industry market remains at a low level, terminal downstream demand has not changed much, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride has slightly declined.

3. Future market forecast:

Recently, the price trend of phthalic anhydride in the upstream has remained volatile, the DOP market in the downstream has declined, and the plasticizer industry is in a poor position. Business analysts believe that the market price trend of phthalic anhydride may maintain a low volatility, with prices ranging from 5800 to 5900 yuan/ton.

Price Trend

This week (8.05-8.09) the domestic 1_tin ingot market shocks higher, the domestic market average price at the beginning of the week at 134912.50 yuan/ton, weekend at 13632.50 yuan/ton, up 1.07%.

On August 9, the tin commodity index was 69.46, down 0.49 points from yesterday, down 30.71% from the peak of 100.25 points in the cycle (2011-09-05), and up 62.06% from the low of 42.86 points on December 09, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market Trend Analysis

Domestic market: This week, the domestic spot tin market shocks higher, as of Friday, the mainstream domestic spot tin prices in 135500-137000 yuan/ton, up about 1500 yuan/ton from the beginning of the week, an increase of 1.07%. From Monday to Wednesday, the spot tin market fluctuated at 135,000 yuan/ton. The market did not perform well and tended to be stable. Since Thursday, boosted by a sharp rise in the futures market, traders actively replenish their goods, the market has a better trading atmosphere, and prices have also risen. On Friday, the market returned to rationality, purchasing was soft and trading was light. Up to Friday, the Shanghai area suit brand Yunxi lifting water 800-1200 yuan/ton, ordinary Yunzi lifting water 500-1000 yuan/ton, small brand lifting water 200-500 yuan/ton.

Non-ferrous industry: This week, the performance of basic metals first restrained and then increased. The offshore renminbi “unexpectedly” broke seven, while the US Treasury Department classified China as a currency manipulator. China-US relations deteriorated further. Subjects such as stock markets and bonds in the global financial system suffered a systematic slump. Gold continued to soar. Commodities fell sharply at the beginning of the week. Then, when the US dollar fell, the market panicked. Emotions gradually recovered, commodities showed a low rebound, repair the upward trend, most of the weekend recovered some of the early week’s decline.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Next week’s economic data in Europe and the United States are still relatively concentrated, and worries in the macro environment are not recovering. This week’s low rebound has lifted most metals out of the trough. However, the sustained rebound still needs the promotion of each metal’s own fundamentals and the degree of favor of funds. We should be alert to the gradual withdrawal of large-scale capital into the market in the next week. Tin prices are expected to remain volatile.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the distribution price of sulphuric acid in Shandong rose slightly this week. The quotation rose from 225.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 227.50 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 2.50 yuan/ton, up 1.11%, down 48.88% from the same period last year. Overall, the sulfuric acid market rose this week, with the sulfuric acid commodity index of 35.41 on August 9.

II. Market Analysis

(1) Products:

This week, the prices of some sulphuric acid manufacturers in Shandong rose slightly, with fewer inventories and fewer downstream demand. The weekend quotation of Heze Jiangyuan is 230 yuan/ton, which is 10 yuan/ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Zouping Tianlu’s quotation is 60 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable; Jinan Yuanfei’s quotation is 450 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable.

(2) Industrial chain:

Recently, the domestic sulfur market has been declining; the downstream ammonium market is light, the new orders are not satisfactory, the atmosphere is not good, the diammonium market is relatively stable, the high level is strong, the sulfuric acid enterprises have multiple early orders, short-term start is insufficient, and the supply is slightly tight. This week, domestic sulphuric acid plants run smoothly, market supply is relatively tight, downstream gas purchases are general, market turnover is limited.

3. Future Market Forecast

After the adjustment in July, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the equipment has been repaired and the production capacity has increased. Upstream prices fell slightly, downstream purchases were general, and products went down under the contradiction between supply and demand. Business sulfuric acid analysts believe that the short-term market in Shandong Province, under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials, the sulfuric acid market tends to decline.

Price Trend

According to a large number of data monitored by business associations, the domestic R22 ex-factory price fell slightly this week. By the end of the week (8.02), the domestic R22 ex-factory price was 17,600 yuan/ton, 2.22% lower than the trend of 18,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week (7.29), and 4.86% lower than the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the domestic R22 factory price slightly declined. This year, the refrigerant market was slightly depressed. There was once a low price stalemate and the peak season was not strong. At present, R22 refrigerant production enterprises have stable installations, but the pressure of moving goods is too high, the stock expands to a certain extent, and the enterprises aim to make profits for delivery. From the market demand, downstream weakness continues, the peak season of refrigerant has passed, and the demand has only decreased but not increased. The price of basic raw materials for fluorine chemical industry has fallen, and the cost is difficult to support. The cost side of refrigerant is insufficient to support, which makes it unfavorable. According to the data monitoring of business associations, as of August 02, the price of Zhejiang Juhua Co., Ltd. was 17,800 yuan/ton, Quzhou Jiuzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. was 17,000 yuan/ton, Shandong Yue’an New Materials Co., Ltd. was 18,000 yuan/ton, Zhejiang Lengwang Science and Technology Co., Ltd. was 17,000 yuan/ton, and Hunan Longxun Trade Co., Ltd. The company’s price is 16,000 yuan/ton, and the market price (business Association data) is mostly concentrated between 16,000 and 18,000 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The upstream product anhydrous hydrofluoric acid market trend slightly declined, the price at the end of the weekend (8.05) was 11 610 yuan/ton, down 3.25% from 12 000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week (7.29), up 5.23% year-on-year. Enterprises reflect that the current on-site hydrofluoric acid spot supply is sufficient, the recent on-site shopping situation is general, the price has declined, the refrigerant R22 support is weak. The domestic trichloromethane market of upstream products is weak. In recent days, the price of chloroform has fallen sharply. The overall supply of the market is still acceptable. Enterprises’shipments are smooth. Influenced by the low start of refrigerant market, the demand for trichloromethane is poor, and the chloroform market continues to weaken.

Large downstream air-conditioning enterprises maintain just demand, lack of enthusiasm for inventory, decline in refrigerant consumption, shortage of refrigerant demand, end of air-conditioning refrigeration year, drag down demand, decline in refrigerant consumption of R22 refrigerant, the phenomenon of weakness is difficult to change.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Refrigerant Analysts believe that the current refrigerant R22 peak season has passed, demand continues to decline, R22 market shocks down, continue to decline. The price of raw material hydrofluoric acid and trichloromethane has fallen, the cost side of refrigerants is insufficient, and the negative situation of oversupply in the market continues. In a word, the future market of R22 refrigerants is mainly characterized by low oscillation.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the price of pure benzene in China has basically declined this week, with a small decline. This week Sinopec continued to bid, with Sinopec lowering its price by about 150 yuan/ton from last week. This week, the lowest price of pure benzene appeared on Friday at 5000-5350 yuan/ton.

II. Analytical Review

1. Products: Huaxing Petrochemical started quoting this week. Following last week’s weaker market for pure benzene, Sinochem’s pure benzene companies continued to lower the price of pure benzene starting this week. Sinopec continued to bid at a high price of 5350 yuan per ton. Pure benzene port inventory continued to decline this week, but the downstream demand for pure benzene was insufficient to follow up, and market participants mostly held a wait-and-see attitude.

2. Crude oil: crude oil showed an inverted V trend this week, rising slowly at first and falling sharply at the close of Thursday. At the beginning of the week, oil prices were heading for a better trend, influenced by the Fed’s desire to cut interest rates and the persistence of risks in the supply of crude oil in the Persian Gulf. On Thursday, news came that the United States would impose a 10% tariff on $300 billion worth of Chinese imports starting in September. Market participants were worried that the international oil price had fallen sharply. Brent fell 4.66% this week from last week, while WTI fell 4% from last week.

3. Relevant industries: The impact of low prices from hydrobenzene made the pure benzene in East China begin to fall in the second half of the week, aggravating the price difference between Sinopec’s listing price and East China’s spot price, and the expected listing price or pressure drop in the market. However, the listing price which has not been adjusted for a long time still forms a certain support for the market, and the decline is limited.

4. External Disc: The downstream styrene start-up load in the United States has not changed much, and demand remains strong. However, with the successive arrival of products in the United States and the mostly low-inventory operation, the local prices have fallen sharply in recent months, thus affecting market confidence. However, the long-term prices continue to be firm, the overall change is not significant, and the overall impact on Korean resources has been felt. The force is moderate.

3. Future Market Forecast

1. Crude oil: The United States may increase tariff rates on Chinese goods, increase trade risk concerns, override the Fed’s interest rate cuts, and oil prices may still fall next week.

2. Domestic market: At present, domestic demand for pure benzene is weak, and pure benzene is facing shipment pressure. In addition, the sudden drop in crude oil has created a negative stimulus to the mentality of the bulk market, and pure benzene is still expected to decline.

Considering comprehensively, pure benzene market or weak operation next week.