In 2025, the phenolic ketone industry will usher in a crucial year of structural adjustment. The policy direction of “anti internal competition” is clear, promoting the transformation of the industry from low price competition to high-quality development; The production capacity side presents the characteristic of “old and new rotation”, with the concentrated release of new production capacity and the parallel exit of outdated production capacity; The imbalance between supply and demand in the market is intensifying, prices are deeply declining, and industry profits are under pressure; Technological innovation focuses on green, low-carbon, and efficient utilization, and the trend of industrial chain integration is becoming increasingly prominent. The following is a summary of the core events of the year:
1、 Policy led transformation: dual wheel drive of environmental protection and anti involution policies
-At the beginning of the year, the upgrading of domestic environmental protection standards was implemented. Starting from 2025, the newly revised “Emission Standards for Volatile Organic Compounds in the Petrochemical Industry” will be officially implemented, clarifying the requirements for VOCs emission control of phenol and ketone production enterprises, forcing small and medium-sized production capacity to accelerate the upgrading of environmental protection equipment, and further raising the industry access threshold. At the same time, the supporting implementation rules of the “Guiding Catalogue for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)” have been released, clarifying the elimination standards for outdated production capacity in the phenol ketone industry (mainly for devices that have been in operation for more than 20 years and have a scale of less than 300000 tons/year), and setting a red line for optimizing the industry structure.

-In March, the National People’s Congress and Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference emphasized the need to combat internal competition in the chemical industry. During the conference, “breaking down local protectionism and market segmentation, and rectifying internal competition” became a hot topic in the chemical industry. It was clarified that the phenol ketone industry needs to achieve efficient and intensive development through supply-demand matching and structural upgrading, and a supply side optimization model driven by policy guidance and market mechanisms was gradually established.
-Throughout the year, the EU REACH regulation has been strengthened with compliance requirements. The EU has updated the REACH regulation, added four restrictions on phenolic ketone substances, and put forward stricter requirements for the supply chain traceability and carbon footprint certification of phenolic ketone derivatives. Domestic export-oriented phenolic ketone enterprises have accelerated the construction of compliance systems to cope with green trade barriers.
2、 Capacity restructuring: Concentrated release of new capacity, accelerated exit of old capacity
-In the first half of the year, the phenol ketone unit of Fuyu Chemical was put into operation as the first batch of new production capacity in 2025. The phenol ketone unit of Fuyu Chemical was successfully put into operation, and the total domestic phenol ketone production capacity exceeded 10.48 million tons per year, further highlighting the loose supply side pattern.
-June: The old units of Yanshan Petrochemical and Jilin Petrochemical officially withdrew from the phenol and ketone units that have been in operation for over 20 years. There is no clear plan to restart them, and they have been removed from the total industry production capacity, with a total withdrawal capacity of about 400000 tons per year. The proportion of old production capacity has decreased to below 7.54%.
-In July, the 650000 tons/year phenol ketone plant of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical was put into operation, and the large-scale phenol ketone plant of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical successfully produced qualified products. After the commissioning, the domestic phenol ketone production capacity exceeded 11.26 million tons/year, and the proportion of production capacity in the East China region increased to over 70%, further strengthening the regional production capacity cluster effect.
-At the end of the third quarter, Jilin Petrochemical’s 350000 tons/year new plant was put into operation. Jilin Petrochemical’s 350000 tons/year phenol ketone plant was completed and put into operation, achieving stable output in the fourth quarter, directly exacerbating the supply pressure in the Northeast and North China regions, and the industry operating rate rebounded to around 75%.

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Throughout the year, multiple sets of phenol ketone units, including CNOOC, Huizhou Zhongxin Phase I, and Gaoqiao Petrochemical, have entered a long-term shutdown state due to long-term shutdown adjustments. The total shutdown capacity is 890000 tons per year, which offsets the 1.35 million tons of new production capacity added throughout the year. The net increase in production capacity is about 460000 tons, and the supply pressure has not yet eased.
3、 Market volatility intensifies: prices deeply decline, profit margins continue to compress
-June July: Mainstream enterprise maintenance caused short-term supply tightening. Multiple core phenol ketone units, including 650000 tons/year for Wanhua Chemical, 560000 tons/year for Shanghai Xisa, and 400000 tons/year for Sinopec Mitsui, were shut down for maintenance. Among them, Wanhua Chemical had a maintenance cycle of up to 45 days, which temporarily reduced market supply and drove phenol prices to remain firm in the short term.
-October December: Phenol prices hit a five-year low, with a decline of over 15%. In the fourth quarter, the phenol market entered a period of deep adjustment. Affected by the triple negative factors of new production capacity release, weak downstream demand, and weakened raw material prices, the cumulative decline in phenol prices in the East China market reached 15.44%. At the end of the year, the mainstream quotation converged at 5750-5850 yuan/ton, reaching the lowest level in nearly five years, and the annual average price fell by 13.44% year-on-year.
4、 Technology and industrial upgrading: Innovation focuses on green and efficient, integrated models become mainstream
-Throughout the year, patent applications have continued to grow, with catalysis and energy-saving technologies becoming hot topics. From 2020 to 2025, the average annual growth rate of patent applications related to phenol and ketone in China is 14%. In 2025, the focus will be on catalyst modification, wastewater treatment, low-energy processes, and comprehensive utilization of by-products. The popularization rate of direct oxidation process will increase, and the application proportion of emerging catalyst systems will increase to 30%.
-Within the year: Leading enterprises accelerate the integration of the industrial chain layout. Multiple leading enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta have connected the entire industry chain of “phenol acetone bisphenol A polycarbonate” through mergers and acquisitions. Some enterprises have also built supporting photovoltaic power stations, achieving a 15% reduction in energy costs and responding to market pressure through differentiated competition.
-Throughout the year, the expansion of emerging application areas has accelerated the penetration rate of high-purity phenolic ketone products in new energy battery packaging materials, electronic grade phenolic resins, special epoxy resins, and other fields. The procurement volume of phenolic intermediates in the medical disinfection field has increased by 12% compared to 2023, becoming a new bright spot for demand growth.

5、 Adjustment of Trade Pattern: Enhanced Export Orientation and Deepening of Regional Trade Network
-Throughout the year, China’s phenolic ketone exports have steadily increased due to overcapacity, driving export-oriented development. By 2025, China’s phenolic ketone exports are expected to exceed 850000 tons, mainly flowing to Southeast Asia and the Middle East, gradually shifting from a net importer to a regional exporter.
-Fourth quarter: Import replenishment intensifies domestic supply pressure. Phenol imports from the East China region continue to arrive at ports, with a total of 49700 tons arriving in December. Although port inventories are temporarily stable, expectations for in transit shipments continue to suppress market prices.
-Throughout the year, the trend of regional trade highlights the increasingly tight network of phenolic ketone trade within Asia. Europe’s dependence on imports has risen to 35% due to the closure of old facilities. The global supply chain layout is shifting towards regionalization and nearshore operations, and shipping costs and green trade barriers have become key factors affecting trade flows.
Overall, in 2025, the phenolic ketone industry will accelerate structural adjustment under policy guidance, with capacity expansion and elimination going hand in hand. The imbalance between market supply and demand will lead to a deep decline in prices, putting pressure on industry profitability. In the future, technological innovation, industrial chain integration, and green transformation will become the core direction for the industry to break through “internal competition” and achieve high-quality development.

Introduction: Ethanol, commonly known as alcohol, can be divided into edible alcohol and industrial alcohol according to production methods. Edible alcohol is a product obtained by fermenting food and yeast in a fermentation tank, filtering, and distilling. It is usually an aqueous solution of ethanol and does not contain toxic benzene and methanol to the human body. Industrial alcohol is ethanol obtained by cracking long-chain organic compounds in petroleum under catalyst and high temperature conditions. In order to distinguish it from edible alcohol, industrial alcohol contains a certain amount of organic toxic substances such as methanol, which are also clearly marked and explained on the outer packaging. The ethanol specification monitored by Business Society is food grade 95% ethanol.

According to the monitoring data of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic ethanol market in 2025 will show weak supply and demand, with range fluctuations. The annual average price is 5392.20 yuan/ton, the highest price is 5698.89 yuan/ton, and the lowest price is 5105.00 yuan/ton, with a maximum amplitude of 11.6%, and an increase of 5.01% at the beginning and end of the year; Limited cost support, loose supply, weak demand, and lack of upward momentum in prices. In 2026, it is expected that there will be a weak adjustment due to the temporary selling pressure of corn, which will drag down costs, make it difficult to boost demand, and continue to increase supply. Only winter logistics may bring local fluctuations.
Specifically, let’s take a look:
In the first half of the year, the domestic ethanol market showed a volatile upward trend, mainly supported by the dual benefits of cost side driving and phased tightening of supply side – the price of raw material corn remained stable and slightly strong, coupled with the centralized maintenance of equipment in the industry, the market supply was temporarily tight, and ethanol prices rose accordingly. The price increase gradually transmitted from the Northeast production area to the East China sales area, and the overall increase was limited due to the impact of market supply and demand game.
In the second half of the year, the ethanol market has significant differentiation characteristics, and the overall market is under pressure and weakening. In the third quarter, the market supply increment was released, downstream demand remained weak, and coupled with the synchronous decline in raw material costs, multiple negative factors intertwined, causing ethanol prices to enter a volatile downward channel; In the fourth quarter, the operating rate of domestic ethanol plants steadily rebounded, and market production increased accordingly. However, the demand side’s support for essential needs was insufficient, and the weak pattern remained unchanged. Ethanol prices continued to show a weak consolidation trend, with only some regions experiencing slight price fluctuations due to local supply and demand disturbances.
The main factors currently affecting the development of the domestic ethanol market are as follows:
In terms of cost, corn: as the main raw material for bio fermented ethanol, its price is stable with weak fluctuations, and the purchasing and sales atmosphere at the grassroots level is light. After the new season of corn is launched, the supply is sufficient, and the cost support effect is weakened. Cassava jerky: The supply of cassava ethanol raw materials is tight, prices are running at high levels, production losses continue, and output is limited. The price of ethanol is greatly influenced by the raw material market.

In terms of supply, in recent years, ethanol has become a necessity in people’s daily lives as the main disinfectant, and the proportion of medical alcohol has increased significantly, becoming one of the main uses of ethanol. At present, there is sufficient supply of medical alcohol to meet people’s living needs, and prices are rarely too high in a short period of time due to insufficient supply. In 2025, the total domestic ethanol production capacity will be 18.33 million tons per year (+15.6% compared to 2023), with the increase mainly due to the release of coal to ethanol production capacity, accounting for 21.82% of the total. The production capacity of bio fermented ethanol will remain stable. In terms of production, the cumulative output from January to October was 5.7093 million tons (year-on-year+2.9%), with an average operating rate of 42.77%; In the fourth quarter, the operating rate rebounded and production continued to increase, but the process differentiation was obvious. The increment of coal to ethanol production was significant, and the biological fermentation ethanol was greatly affected by costs and policies. The overall supply had a moderate impact on prices.
In terms of demand, the demand in the chemical industry continues to grow, with the release of new production capacity for downstream products such as ethyl acetate and methyl ethyl carbonate, leading to an increase in ethanol consumption. However, some products are operating under pressure due to cost pressures. The demand in the fuel sector will peak in 2024 and decline in 2025, mainly due to the development of new energy vehicles and policy adjustments, but there is still some support for the promotion of ethanol gasoline in some regions. The demand for Baijiu in the food sector declined slightly, the demand for low alcohol drinks increased, and the overall consumption in the food sector increased steadily. The price of ethanol is influenced by the demand. For example, in the peak consumption season of Baijiu, the price of ethanol will rise significantly.
In terms of imports and exports, data from January to November 2025 shows that at the import end, 775.791 tons of unmodified ethanol were imported (from Georgia, Germany, and South Korea), and 241.72 tons of modified ethanol were imported (from France, Brazil, and the United States); At the export end, 53514.932 tons of unmodified ethanol were exported (to the Philippines, Saudi Arabia and Singapore), and 1889.086 tons of modified ethanol were exported (to South Korea, India and Taiwan, China). Due to the extremely low proportion of total import and export volume in the domestic market supply and demand scale, the ethanol price trend throughout the year is less affected by import and export factors.
Summary: In 2025, both the supply and demand sides of the domestic ethanol market will show weak performance, and prices will continue to fluctuate within a certain range. On the cost side, raw material prices provide certain support for the market; However, the loose supply side pattern continues, coupled with the overall weak downstream demand constraint, the market lacks core upward driving force, and prices have been fluctuating within the range throughout the year, without any trend breakthrough market.

Looking ahead to 2026:
The support on the cost side is expected to weaken. As the Spring Festival approaches, grassroots farmers and traders are constrained by the demand for repayment, and corn is likely to experience phased concentrated selling. The market supply is expected to significantly increase, and the price of raw corn will face downward pressure, which will drive the production cost of ethanol to move downwards, bringing negative impacts to the market from a cost perspective.
The demand side continues to lack driving force, and downstream industries mostly adhere to the principle of rigid procurement and prefer to choose low-priced raw materials for substitution or blending, resulting in a lower acceptance of high priced ethanol. The demand side is difficult to form effective pull and cannot digest the incremental pressure released by the supply side.
There are certain variables in the logistics process, such as severe weather conditions such as winter snowfall that may disrupt the efficiency of logistics transportation in production areas. This not only increases transportation costs, prolongs transportation cycles, and weakens the price competitiveness of ethanol in production areas, but also may temporarily disrupt the shipping rhythm of factories, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance in the local market.
Overall, under the combined effects of multiple factors such as the expected increase in loose supply, weakened cost support, and sustained weak demand, the ethanol market may show a weak adjustment trend in the new year.

In 2025, the domestic bisphenol A market will exhibit the core characteristics of “weak supply and demand, and difficult cost support”, with price fluctuations and downward trends becoming the main trend; In 2025, the domestic bisphenol A market showed a fluctuating downward trend throughout the year, with only a partial rebound at the end of the year. On January 1st, the market price of bisphenol A was 9537 yuan/ton. As of December 29th, the benchmark price of bisphenol A in Shengyi Society was 7604.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of more than 20% from the beginning of the year. The lowest price reached 7090 yuan/ton during the year, reflecting the core problems of industry supply and demand contradictions and insufficient cost support.

Periodic contraction under overcapacity, overall loose pattern remains unchanged
In 2025, the industry’s operating rate will remain relatively high at around 80%, and the overall market supply will be loose under the background of overcapacity. Although there was a temporary supply contraction at the end of the year (December), resulting in a decrease of about 15% in market supply compared to normal levels and driving a temporary price rebound of 5.93%, this contraction is a short-term maintenance disturbance and cannot change the core pattern of loose supply throughout the year.
Downstream weakness drags down demand, and temporary replenishment is difficult to reverse the decline
The weak performance of the two downstream industries constitutes the core suppression of demand in 2025. On the one hand, the PC industry has been affected by weak exports of electronic appliances and sluggish demand for traditional home appliances, with an annual operating rate of less than 75%. Although the lightweighting of new energy vehicles and the construction of 5G base stations have brought some high-end PC demand growth, it is difficult to hedge the overall demand gap; On the other hand, the epoxy resin industry is facing a dual impact of shrinking demand in the traditional coatings field (from 61% to 39%) and bio based alternative materials. The growth in high-end fields such as wind power and electronic packaging cannot compensate for the decline in the traditional market. Throughout the year, downstream enterprises generally adopted a low inventory strategy, with only a temporary replenishment of orders at the end of the year due to rush work demand, forming a short-term demand pulse. However, terminal consumption did not follow up synchronously, and the market quickly returned to weakness after the replenishment ended, confirming the core characteristic of “weak demand reality”.
Raw material prices hit a five-year low, and the logic of cost support has failed
The weak and volatile trend of the raw material market in 2025 has led to the failure of cost support. Upstream crude oil prices have fluctuated downward, coupled with loose supply and demand in the pure benzene market, driving the prices of phenol and acetone to continue to weaken, with the annual average price falling by more than 10% year-on-year. Although the cost of coal to olefin route is 15% -20% lower than that of petroleum based route, providing a certain cost buffer for domestic enterprises, the overall weakness of the raw material end is transmitted to the bisphenol A link, making it difficult for enterprises to raise prices and further strengthening the downward trend of prices.

Looking at 2026, on the supply side, the concentrated release of new production capacity will further increase supply pressure. Of the 3.8 million tons of bisphenol A production capacity under construction worldwide by 2025, 73% will be located in China, which will drive domestic production capacity to exceed 7 million tons. With the restart of maintenance facilities in Shandong and other areas in January 2026, the market supply will gradually recover, and the supply-demand mismatch pattern is expected to improve. However, the concentrated release of new production capacity will further intensify industry competition. It is expected that the industry operating rate will fall to around 75% by 2026, and the loose supply pattern will continue. At the same time, top enterprises will further squeeze the market share of small and medium-sized production capacity by leveraging their technological advantages (such as ionic liquid catalyst technology, which reduces single ton energy consumption by 19%) and cost advantages, and industry concentration is expected to increase.
In terms of demand, the performance of bisphenol A demand side in 2026 will depend on the pace of macroeconomic recovery and the expansion speed of downstream high-end fields. In the short term, after the decline in demand for year-end replenishment, demand may return to weakness in the first quarter of 2026; In the medium term, if real estate policies are relaxed and electronic and electrical exports recover, it will drive marginal improvement in demand for epoxy resin and traditional PC. In the long run, the high-end sector remains the core driving force for demand growth: the lightweighting of new energy vehicles is driving the demand for modified PCs, with an expected annual increase of 120000 tons; The construction of 5G base stations has driven a surge in demand for low dielectric constant PC materials; The application growth rate of medical grade PCs in disposable blood oxygen sensors and other fields has reached 23%. In addition, the expansion of demand in emerging markets such as Southeast Asia may provide some support for domestic bisphenol A exports
From the perspective of Shengyi Society, the core contradiction in the bisphenol A market in 2026 is still the game of “overcapacity and insufficient demand recovery”, and the market is likely to show a trend of “weak first, stable later, and fluctuating adjustment”: in the first quarter, prices may return to low levels due to the impact of supply recovery and weak demand; 2、 If the marginal improvement in downstream demand occurs in the third quarter, it may drive a temporary rebound in prices; The fourth quarter may be affected by factors such as year-end replenishment, fluctuations in raw material prices, or short-term market disturbances. The price center for the whole year may slightly decrease compared to 2025, with a focus on fluctuations within the range of 7000-8000 yuan/ton. In the later stage, we need to focus on three aspects: first, the production progress of new production capacity exceeds expectations, leading to a significant increase in supply pressure; Secondly, the macroeconomic recovery did not meet expectations, and downstream demand remained weak; The third is the impact of sudden factors such as geopolitical conflicts and intensified environmental policies on the market.

This week, the domestic liquid ammonia market continued its previous downward trend, with a sluggish market performance. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the liquid ammonia market in Shandong Province fell by 2.05% this week (12.22-26). The main reason is the abundant supply of ammonia, which affects market circulation due to rainy and snowy weather in the north. In addition, local environmental inspections still play a role. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is 2300-2500 yuan/ton.
In terms of supply, this week’s supply continued to increase compared to last week. The production of liquid ammonia in Shandong and Hebei regions did not decrease, while the supply of equipment in Central China resumed, resulting in an increase in ammonia supply. Due to the impact of snow in some parts of the northern region, transportation is restricted, resulting in the accumulation of inventory in enterprise warehouses. From the beginning of the week to the weekend, some companies in northern regions have made downward adjustments, with the magnitude deepening compared to last week. Large factories in Shandong region generally adjust prices between 100-150 yuan, indicating an oversupply in the market. Enterprises still have expectations of resuming work in the later stage, and the supply may continue to increase in the later stage.
From the demand side perspective, downstream demand has been sluggish, with the operating rate of compound fertilizers still at a low level. In some downstream areas, phosphate fertilizer enterprises have been affected by environmental protection, resulting in a continuous decline in operating rates and relatively weak demand. Recently, the shipment volume of urea has remained stable, although there is still an upward trend, the increase has significantly narrowed, but the price has not continued to rise near the weekend. According to the commodity analysis system, the weekly increase of urea is 0.14%. In addition, the domestic industrial demand is weak, and agricultural demand is mainly purchased on demand with sporadic restocking. The improvement in demand is not significant, and the market’s wait-and-see mentality still dominates.
Market forecast:
Business analysts believe that the supply and demand pressure in the liquid ammonia market is expected to continue next week, mainly due to the impact of the expected resumption of plant work, and there are still supply risks in the market. Combined with the current off-season for agricultural demand, the downstream operating rate is slowly declining, and the market for feed ammonia may not improve. There may still be room for decline in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of baking soda from the beginning of the week to the weekend was 1190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.03% compared to the same period last year. On December 24th, the Business Society Baking Soda Index was 78.98, unchanged from yesterday and hitting a historic low for the cycle, a decrease of 66.51% from the highest point of 235.84 on November 10, 2021. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running weakly, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is running weakly, with a factory price of 1080-1200 yuan/ton in Henan region and 1150-1250 yuan/ton in Shandong region. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has been consolidating this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week is 1258 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend is 1252 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18.6% compared to the same period last year. Downstream buyers tend to purchase on demand.
Analysts from Business Society believe that the price of baking soda has been weak in recent times, while the upstream raw material soda ash has been consolidating in recent times. Downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have been purchasing on demand for baking soda, and demand enthusiasm is still acceptable. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

Market Overview: (12.16-12.23)
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of December 23, the average price of dichloromethane dispersed water in Shandong Province was reported at 1710 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.47% during the week. The year-on-year decline reached 39.25%, and the pattern of market supply-demand imbalance continued to suppress the market, causing it to oscillate weakly in the historical low range.
Supply side: High operating rate is the main source of pressure
Industry maintains high load: The high operating rate of the domestic methane chloride industry is the core factor suppressing the market. Although there are sporadic devices to reduce load, the impact on the overall supply pattern is limited.
The strategy is mainly focused on shipping: Enterprises generally face inventory pressure and often adopt a concession shipping strategy to alleviate the pressure.
Demand side: Weak domestic demand, relying on export diversion
The support for the main downstream refrigerant R32 is limited: its operating rate is still acceptable, about 80% of it is running, but due to its multiple upstream raw materials, the actual purchase volume of purchased dichloromethane is limited. Low demand in other fields: stable but small total demand in areas such as medicine and electronics; The traditional solvent field is squeezed by both economic prosperity and low-priced alternatives. The purchasing mentality is extremely cautious: downstream companies generally adopt the strategy of “purchasing on demand and replenishing inventory in small quantities at low prices”, and the market lacks speculation and stocking demand.
The import and export of dichloromethane show extreme differentiation: this phenomenon confirms the weakness of domestic demand. Imports: Only 17.3 tons in November, a decrease of 15.81% compared to the previous month, which can be ignored, indicating that there is no import demand in the domestic market. Export: In November, it reached 23386.69 tons, an increase of 24.07% compared to the previous month, becoming a key channel for digesting domestic overcapacity. But this is a passive choice under market weakness, providing only bottom support and difficult to drive market reversal.
On the cost side, raw material prices fluctuate, and the profit margin of enterprises is compressed
Liquid chlorine: The increase in downstream maintenance has led to a decrease in demand and a drop in prices.
Methanol: Due to port destocking and reduced import expectations, prices have rebounded. As of December 23rd, the benchmark price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2140 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.78% during the period.
Although the main raw material liquid chlorine has declined, the profit margin of production enterprises has been significantly squeezed due to the weak price of dichloromethane.
Future outlook:
Short term bearish factors dominate, and it is expected that the market will maintain a weak operation, with prices possibly continuing to fluctuate and bottom out in the historical low range. Attention should be paid to whether there are substantial adjustments and inventory changes on the supply side. Before there is a clear reduction in production, it is difficult for the market to form a trend of upward momentum.

Recently, the price of acetic anhydride has been fluctuating
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 21st, the price of acetic anhydride was 4162.50 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price of acetic anhydride on December 15th at 4162.50 yuan/ton. This week, the price of acetic acid first rose and then fell, with stable support for the cost of acetic anhydride. The maintenance equipment for acetic anhydride on the supply side has not yet been restored, and the market operating rate is not high. At the beginning of the week, the quotation continued to rise, while downstream demand fluctuated narrowly. Some acetic anhydride manufacturers had average shipments, and the price of acetic anhydride decreased slightly in the later period.
The acetic acid market remains strong and stable
According to the Business Society Acetic Acid Commodity Market Analysis System, the price of acetic acid remained at 2660 yuan/ton from December 15th to 21st. The recovery of acetic acid maintenance equipment is slow, the market supply is relatively strong, the inventory pressure of manufacturers is not high, the quotation is firm and stable, the downstream demand is stable, the market trading atmosphere is still acceptable, and the high price of acetic acid still provides positive support for acetic anhydride.
Future prospects
The acetic acid analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the price of raw material acetic acid is strong, the market mentality of acetic anhydride is good, the pressure on the supply side of acetic anhydride is not high, and the manufacturer’s quotation is mainly stable. The downstream production is stable, and the basic support of acetic anhydride is good. It is expected that the acetic anhydride market will operate steadily in the later stage, and specific attention will be paid to changes in the upstream market.

The domestic fluorite prices have remained stable this week, with an average price of 3368.75 yuan/ton as of the weekend, unchanged from the early week price of 3368.75 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 8.43%.

Supply side: Fluorite spot normal inventory high
The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is still tense, and backward mines will continue to be eliminated. In terms of new mines, mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to reform fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased. However, the spot supply of fluorite in the market is normal, and social inventory continues to operate at a high level without obvious signs of depletion. The supply side maintains a stable production rhythm. In addition, production activities will slow down before the end of the year and the mentality of “buying up and not buying down”. The scale of periodic replenishment has shrunk. Recently, downstream procurement has not been active, and fluorite shipments have been poor. The fluorite market trend is mainly.
Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid price stable, refrigerant market average
This week, the domestic price trend of hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable, and the mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid discussed in various regions of China is 11700-12200 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid equipment is still in shutdown, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and the overall production of hydrofluoric acid remains at more than 50%. Fluorine enterprises maintain essential orders, and hydrofluoric acid enterprises are in a loss making state. Recently, hydrofluoric acid merchants have not been actively purchasing, and the fluorite market is in a fierce game between supply and demand, falling into a “price but no market” deadlock, in the absence of strong demand support. The market price of fluorite remains low.
The downstream refrigerant market in the terminal is still promising, and the terminal policies of the refrigerant industry are being strengthened. Demand is expected to achieve substantial improvement, and fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in raising prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the pace of high price procurement is relatively slow, and although there has been no follow-up transaction in the circulation market, enterprises are actively controlling quantity and raising prices by sealing off inventory. The refrigerant market still has support, but we still hold a cautious attitude towards upstream procurement, and the price trend of fluorite market is temporarily stable.
In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF、 Graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc., have received certain support in the application of fluorite due to the demand for new energy and semiconductors.
Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production and undergone safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a positive support for the fluorite market. However, the high inventory of fluorite spot goods, downstream hydrofluoric acid enterprises mainly purchase on demand, and demand has not actually improved. The fierce game between supply and demand, overall, the fluorite market price is mainly fluctuating at a low level in the short term.

The domestic fluorite price trend has declined this week, with an average price of 3368.75 yuan/ton as of the weekend, a decrease of 0.55% from the early week price of 3387.5 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 8.43%.
Supply side: Fluorite spot normal inventory high

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is still tense, and backward mines will continue to be eliminated. In terms of new mines, mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to reform fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased. However, the spot supply in the fluorite field is normal, and social inventory continues to operate at a high level without obvious signs of depletion. The supply side maintains a stable production rhythm. In addition, production activities will slow down before the end of the year and the mentality of “buying up and not buying down”. The phased replenishment scale has shrunk, and the fluorite shipment situation is not good. The fluorite market trend continues to decline.
Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid price stable, refrigerant market average
This week, the domestic price trend of hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable, and the mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid discussed in various regions of China is 11700-12200 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid equipment is still in shutdown, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and the overall production of hydrofluoric acid remains at more than 50%. Fluorine enterprises maintain essential orders, and hydrofluoric acid enterprises are in a loss making state. Recently, hydrofluoric acid merchants have not been actively purchasing, and the fluorite market is in a fierce game between supply and demand, falling into a “price but no market” deadlock, in the absence of strong demand support. The price of fluorite market continues to decline.
The downstream refrigerant market in the terminal is still promising, and the terminal policies of the refrigerant industry are being strengthened. Demand is expected to achieve substantial improvement, and fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in raising prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the pace of high price procurement is relatively slow, and although there has been no follow-up transaction in the circulation market, enterprises are actively controlling quantity and raising prices by sealing off inventory. The refrigerant market still has support, but a cautious attitude towards upstream procurement is still held, and the price of fluorite market has slightly decreased.
In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF、 Graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc., have received certain support in the application of fluorite due to the demand for new energy and semiconductors.
Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production and undergone safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a positive support for the fluorite market. However, the high inventory of fluorite spot goods, downstream hydrofluoric acid enterprises mainly purchase on demand, and demand has not actually improved. The fierce game between supply and demand, overall, the fluorite market price is mainly fluctuating at a low level in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the formic acid market has been operating steadily recently. As of December 5th, the benchmark price of formic acid in Shengyi Society was 2910 yuan/ton, which was higher than the same period last week (November 28th), month on month and year-on-year.
There is a significant contraction on the supply side

Part of the equipment in a large production enterprise in Liaocheng is currently under maintenance, and it is expected to maintain the market for one month. At the same time, a major manufacturer in Feicheng has implemented production reduction measures, resulting in an overall decrease in market supply.
High inventory levels combined with weak demand
The current market inventory is at a medium to high level, and the shipment volume has relatively decreased compared to the previous period. The demand side is characterized by “rigid demand dominance and limited increment”. End users generally adopt an on-demand procurement strategy, and the overall market demand performance is flat, lacking significant growth momentum.
The formic acid data analyst of Shengyi Society believes that the domestic formic acid market price will remain stable in early December. Although the supply side has shrunk due to the impact of enterprise maintenance and production reduction, sufficient industry inventory has become an important support for price stability, maintaining a balance between supply and demand. In the short term, if there are no significant changes in supply side maintenance and production reduction, and inventory levels remain at the current level, it is expected that the domestic formic acid market price will continue to operate steadily.