1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has increased this week. On August 20th, the average market price was 801 yuan/ton, and on August 26th, the average market price was around 808 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.87% and a year-on-year increase of 1.64%. On August 26th, the chemical index was 857 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 38.79% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 43.31% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been rising this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market price of around 785-860 yuan/ton for 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. In Jiangsu region, the price of caustic soda is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market price of around 880-920 yuan/ton for 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. In Inner Mongolia region, the price of caustic soda is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market price of around 2200-2300 yuan/ton for 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali (converted to 100 yuan). This week, the inventory of caustic soda is low, and the willingness to purchase has increased.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 34th week of 2024 (8.19-8.23), there was a total of 1 commodity that rose, 3 commodities that fell, and 2 commodities with zero rise and fall in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities experiencing an increase are: caustic soda (0.75%); The main commodities experiencing a decline are baking soda (-1.49%), light soda ash (-0.55%), and PVC (-0.22%). The average increase or decrease this week is -0.25%.

Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has risen and the inventory in Shandong region has remained relatively low. In addition, some downstream buyers have increased their purchasing intentions at the end of the month. In addition, recent rainfall has led to a decrease in transportation volume. It is expected that caustic soda will continue to rise in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

This week (August 19-23), the nylon filament market remained stable with slight fluctuations, operating steadily with prices slightly rising. Upstream raw materials are becoming stronger, and the weekly settlement price of Sinopec’s caprolactam is 13250 yuan/ton (interest free for six-month acceptance), an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to last week. There is currently no significant improvement in downstream demand, and manufacturers are following up on demand from multiple parties. The trading atmosphere on the market is flat, and businesses lack confidence in the future market. The industry’s operating rate remains stable, with little change in on-site supply. The inventory levels of various manufacturers are average, and inventory pressure is not significant. Overall, as costs continue to rise and demand remains weak, the price of nylon filament remains stable with slight fluctuations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price trend of nylon filament has slightly improved this week (August 19-23). As of August 23, 2024, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region is 18680 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton compared to last week. Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 16300 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from last week. The price of nylon FDY (premium: 40D/12F) is reported at 19725 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price.

The trend of raw materials is stable, moderate, and strong

This week (August 19-23), the fundamentals of the nylon filament raw material caprolactam market improved, with stable and strengthening cost support. The weekly closing price of Sinopec caprolactam was 13250 yuan/ton (interest free for six-month acceptance), an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week.. The supply expectation is slightly tight, and downstream nylon PA6 production remains at a high level, with stable demand. The supply expectation of caprolactam is slightly tight, and it is expected that the caprolactam market will be slightly better organized in the later stage.

Supply demand

This week (August 19-23), nylon manufacturers maintained stable operating loads and sufficient supply of goods. In August, it was the traditional off-season for textiles, and downstream demand was weak. The weaving start-up rate continued to be weak. The comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions this week was 60.85%, an increase of 1.90% compared to last week. However, there is still a gap in the number of new orders compared to previous years, resulting in a low operating rate in the weaving industry. Downstream manufacturers are adopting on-demand procurement, and their demand for nylon spinning is weak and difficult to change.

Future forecast

The spot market for raw materials such as caprolactam and PA6 is expected to be slightly better organized, with normal on-site supply and weak downstream demand. With the disappearance of high temperature weather, the trading atmosphere for nylon civilian silk may slightly rebound, but it will still be mainly based on on-demand purchasing. Business analysts predict that the short-term nylon filament market will mainly follow the positive consolidation of raw materials, and prices will mainly fluctuate upward in a narrow range.

This week (8.12-8.18), the domestic price of ethyl acetate continued to decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of the 18th, the price of ethyl acetate was 6016.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.33% compared to the beginning of the week price of 6160.0 yuan/ton. Due to weak demand, insufficient cost boost, and bearish supply side market, the ethyl acetate market continues to decline.

Market analysis: The ethyl acetate market has continued to decline this week. On the raw material side, the acetic acid market remains stable, with insufficient cost boost; On the supply side, the main factories in Shandong have poor shipments, with bidding prices continuously decreasing and market transactions being poor, leading to a bearish attitude among industry players; Downstream enterprises have low enthusiasm for entering the market, slow consumption of inventory, and a small amount of essential needs entering the market, resulting in weak performance downstream; There is a lack of favorable conditions in the market, and the price of ethyl acetate is weakly declining.

Looking ahead, the upstream acetic acid market for ethyl acetate has intentions of exploring an upward trend, with potential cost support and increased momentum for the rise of ethyl acetate; On the supply side, some enterprises’ equipment will be shut down for maintenance, resulting in a decline in capacity utilization; Downstream demand is limited, and enterprises mainly consume inventory, which to some extent suppresses the rise of ethyl acetate. It is expected that the ethyl acetate market will rise slightly in the later period, and specific attention should be paid to changes in the upstream market and downstream follow-up.

This week (8.3-8.9), the domestic acrylonitrile market continued to decline. The price of acrylonitrile in the domestic market has been continuously declining for more than three months, and there is still no clear sign of bottoming out. As of the weekend, the mainstream self pickup price in the East China market has dropped to around 8000 yuan/ton, and short distance delivery in the Shandong market is being negotiated around 8000 yuan/ton. Supply exceeding demand is still the fundamental factor leading to the decline in acrylonitrile prices. Due to the considerable profits of some acrylonitrile major factories in co producing MMA products, it supports the maintenance of acrylonitrile plant production, especially in maintaining ample supply. However, there is currently no effective positive news.

On the supply side, the operating capacity of domestic acrylonitrile plants has decreased to around 74%, still maintaining a high level.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic propylene market has slightly declined this week, with the mainstream closing reference at 6750-6850 yuan/ton. At present, the market direction guidance is not clear, and the wait-and-see sentiment among industry players still exists. Downstream demand is supported by a certain amount of buying demand, and most propylene companies have eased their shipping pressure, which still provides support for price trends. However, fundamental pressure still exists, and it is expected that the propylene market will be dominated by weak fluctuations.

Weak demand: This week, some ABS units in China have slightly increased their operating load, while downstream units have been affected by high temperatures and rainy weather, resulting in some shutdowns and holidays. As of the weekend, the average operating rate of the equipment was 67%, an increase of 1.13% compared to the previous period.

Overall, the domestic propylene market may experience weak fluctuations next week, with insufficient cost support. Although acrylonitrile factories have taken measures such as maintenance or production reduction to alleviate shipment pressure, downstream inquiries tend to be low-end, and the news of production reduction has not boosted the acrylonitrile market. The focus of transactions is expected to continue to weaken, and it is expected that the mainstream negotiation price for self pickup in East China ports will fall to around 7900 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from August 9th to August 16th, the domestic butadiene market price increased from 12425 yuan/ton to 12450 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.2% during the period. This week, the butadiene market experienced narrow fluctuations, with a slight rebound in market prices, but the magnitude was limited. During the week, some enterprises in Shandong region suspended their export plans, which led to a slight rebound in spot market prices in the region and indirectly affected the slight increase in market quotes in East China. However, downstream market demand has remained lukewarm, providing limited support for market sentiment, resulting in limited gains this week. As of August 16th, the self pickup price of butadiene in East China is around 12250 yuan/ton, an increase of about 100 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week. The ex factory price of Sinopec remains unchanged at 12500 yuan/ton.

Cost wise: During this cycle, the international crude oil market first rose and then fell, with an overall upward trend. As of August 15th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $78.16 per barrel, an increase of $1.18 or 1.5%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $81.04 per barrel, an increase of $1.28 or 1.6%.

Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec remains stable at 12500 yuan/ton. The Northern Huajin 120000 tons/year butadiene plant is scheduled to shut down for maintenance on July 12th and is scheduled to restart at the end of August; The second unit of Fujian United and Zhejiang Petrochemical has been restarted in June. The butadiene and downstream butadiene rubber units of Maoming Petrochemical will shut down simultaneously and are expected to restart by the end of August. Recently, there has been little change in the comprehensive operating rate in China, and this week it has remained stable with a slight increase. Currently, the supply of butadiene in China is relatively stable.

On the demand side, the downstream synthetic rubber market continued to weaken this week, and due to the impact of low corporate profits, the production of butadiene rubber continued to remain low; Downstream tire production has slightly declined, overall inquiries are cautious, and there is resistance to high priced sources, resulting in flat market trading. The downstream terminal market maintains a strong demand for raw material butadiene and has a strong resistance to high priced sources of goods. As of August 15th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 14500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.69% from 14750 yuan/ton on August 5th. The ex factory price of Shunding rubber from PetroChina Northeast Sales Company is 14200 yuan/ton, and currently the mainstream market price for Shunding in Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze in East China is 14300-14550 yuan/ton. At present, the demand performance is weak, and the demand support for the butadiene market is insufficient.

On Thursday (August 15th), the closing price of butadiene in foreign markets was partially lowered: the FOB price in South Korea was reported at $1465-1475 per ton, a decrease of $30 per ton; China’s CFR report is $1475-1485 per ton, a decrease of $30 per ton; European butadiene FOB Rotterdam closed at $1175-1185/ton, unchanged; FD Northwest Europe closed at 1105-1115 euros/ton, unchanged.

Market forecast: The overall supply of butadiene in the domestic market is relatively stable in the near future, but there will be some shipping schedules arriving in the East China region, which will have a certain impact on the market atmosphere. From the perspective of demand, downstream companies have always maintained a strong demand for replenishment, while synthetic rubber enterprises have been affected by declining profits, resulting in a significant lack of purchasing enthusiasm in recent times and a wait-and-see market atmosphere. Overall, the recent performance of the butadiene market has been weak in both supply and demand, and it is expected to maintain a stable, moderate, and weak trend in the short term. In the future, the focus will be on the downstream market’s receiving situation and arrival shipping schedule.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on August 12th, the reference price for the domestic silicon metal # 441 market was 12020 yuan/ton. Compared to August 1st (the market price for silicon metal # 441 was 12100 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.66%.

According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic silicon metal market remained stable and consolidated in the first week of August. After a continuous decline in the previous market, the market finally stopped falling and stabilized in August. However, the market situation has not been calm for several days. Due to poor supply and demand transmission in the market, the metal silicon market has once again fallen, and the prices of metal silicon in many regions have been lowered by 50-100 yuan/ton. As of August 12th, the market price reference for metal silicon 441 is around 11800-12450 yuan/ton.

In terms of inventory: Currently, the social inventory of silicon metal in China is about 481000 tons, an increase of 5000 tons from the beginning of the month. The overall destocking performance of silicon metal is average, and the inventory supply is loose.

Supply side: Currently, the supply side of silicon metal is still loose, and the supply side is under pressure, providing limited support to the silicon metal market.

In terms of production: In July 2024, the silicon metal market entered a period of high demand, and the on-site production gradually increased. In July, the domestic silicon metal production was about 487000 tons. In August, due to downstream demand constraints, some metal silicon factories started operating at a reduced rate. The overall production of metal silicon is expected to decrease compared to July, but the overall capacity utilization rate is still high.

Downstream: Recently, the downstream organic silicon DMC market for metallic silicon has experienced a narrow rebound. Currently, the organic silicon DMC market mainly digests early-stage raw materials, and the demand for metallic silicon has not increased much. It remains to be seen whether the future market can bring a slight increase in demand to the silicon metal market.

The overall operating rate of the downstream polycrystalline silicon market has slightly decreased, and the demand for metallic silicon has also slightly decreased. The downstream metallurgical market is operating at a low level, and there has been no significant boost in demand for silicon metal, with a focus on on-demand procurement. Therefore, since August, the overall demand performance of the silicon metal market has been poor, providing insufficient market support for silicon metal.

Market analysis in the future

At present, there is a strong sentiment of observation in the metal silicon field, and the mentality of industry players is cautious. The transmission between supply and demand is still relatively slow. The metal silicon data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market is mainly characterized by narrow adjustments, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from August 5th to 9th (as of 10:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market fell from 2490 yuan/ton to 2460 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.60% during the period, a month on month decrease of 1.76%, and a year-on-year increase of 7.40%. The domestic methanol market is running weakly. The supply has increased, and the domestic methanol market has a strong mentality towards yeast storage. Demand continues to operate weakly, with some traders purchasing at low prices.

As of the close on August 9th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2409, opened at 2495 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2516 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2487 yuan/ton. It closed at 2505 yuan/ton at the end of the day, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day’s settlement, an increase of 0.40%. The trading volume was 491828 lots, and the position was 626831 lots, with a daily increase of -23229.

As of 8.9, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions:

Region/ Price

Shanxi region/ 2250-2260 yuan/ton factory withdrawal in foreign exchange

Liaoning region/ 2700 yuan/ton

Anhui region/ 2440 yuan/ton

Henan region/ 2295 yuan/ton factory withdrawal in foreign exchange

In terms of cost and supply, most coal mines in the production area are currently maintaining normal production and sales, mainly relying on long-term cooperation to ensure supply, and conducting large-scale inspections of safety production hazards in some areas. The overall downstream demand is currently sluggish, and non electric terminals still maintain a small amount of transportation for essential needs. Coal plants and traders are cautious about purchasing, and market activity is weak. Sales in mining areas are generally flat, and most coal mine prices have not been adjusted yet. Some coal mines have increased their coal storage pressure, and prices have slightly decreased by 5-10 yuan/ton. The overall performance of coal prices in production areas is stagnant and weak. The impact of methanol cost is mixed.

On the demand side, downstream acetic acid: the demand for acetic acid does not fluctuate significantly; Downstream formaldehyde: Environmental inspections in the main production areas have ended, leading to an increase in demand for methanol; Downstream chloride: With the slow increase in load of mainstream factories in Shandong, there may be an increase in chloride demand; Downstream dimethyl ether: Increased demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand decreases. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.

On the supply side, the recovery amount exceeds the loss amount, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.

In terms of external markets, as of the close of August 7th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 346.00-347.00 US dollars per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 100.00-101.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 322.00-323.00 euros/ton, up 4 euros/ton.

Region/ Country/ Closing price/ Rise and fall

Asia/ CFR Southeast Asia/ 346.00-347.00 USD/ton/ 0 USD/ton

Europe and America/ American Gulf/ 100.00-101.00 cents per gallon/ 0 cents/gallon

Europe/ FOB Rotterdam/ 322.00-323.00 euros/ton/ 4 euros per ton

In the future market forecast, supply will continue to increase, and there will still be sufficient circulating goods at ports. However, downstream production is not high, and demand remains weak, with obvious weakness in spot driving. Business Society’s methanol analyst predicts that the domestic methanol market will continue to be weak.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on July 31st, the reference price for the domestic silicon metal # 441 market was 12100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1110 yuan/ton or 8.40% from July 1st (the market price for silicon metal # 441 was 13210 yuan/ton).

In July, the domestic silicon metal market experienced consecutive declines. In the first ten days, the silicon metal market entered a period of abundant water, with overall production at a high level and increasing market supply. Downstream demand digestion was average, and the weak supply and demand situation continued. In the latter half of the month, although there were some adjustments in on-site construction, some silicon companies in certain regions were unable to cope with the supply pressure and lowered their equipment operation levels. However, the overall supply level in the field remained high. Among them, the metal silicon construction in Yunnan was still close to full load operation, and downstream sentiment towards the continuous decline in the market was strong. The demand side suppressed the market trend, and the metal silicon market continued to decline.

On July 31st, the market price of metal silicon 421 # in the East China region of China was adjusted downwards. The reference price for 421 # in the East China region is around 12200~12400 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of about 100 yuan/ton. The market price of metal silicon oxygen 553 # in the domestic Xinjiang region has fallen. The reference market price for oxygen 553 # in Xinjiang is around 11200-11400 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of about 50 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of silicon metal 421 in Tianjin Port area has experienced a narrow decline, while the reference market price of 441 in Tianjin area is around 12100-12500 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of about 50 yuan/ton.

In terms of construction: Currently, the overall construction rate of the metal silicon market in Yunnan and Sichuan regions has not fluctuated much, and the construction rate is still close to full load operation. The construction of metal silicon in Xinjiang has been slightly reduced, and some large factories have stopped their metal silicon equipment for maintenance. Currently, construction is starting around the eighth floor.

In terms of inventory, in July, the overall inventory of metallic silicon in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan regions in China was in a state of slight destocking. At present, the overall inventory supply is still under pressure.

Downstream: In July, the downstream market for metal silicon and organic silicon DMC showed an overall weak downward trend. At the beginning of the month, the market price for organic silicon DMC was based on 13560 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the market price for organic silicon DMC fell to around 13200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.65% for the month. At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the organic silicon DMC market is mild, and the overall willingness of factories to ship is strong. Some downstream suppliers are restocking at low prices, and it is expected that the organic silicon DMC market will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range in the short term.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is relatively quiet, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment within the market. The downstream demand side provides insufficient support to the market. The metal silicon data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly adjust and operate in multiple intervals, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

In the first half of 2024, the market price of nylon filament fluctuated, and the overall market price center rose.

In the early first quarter and early second quarter, the market price of nylon filament showed an upward trend. Since the beginning of the year, the prices of raw materials have continued to rise, coupled with high enthusiasm for downstream market procurement and good support from the demand side. Both the cost side and demand side support are strong, resulting in a significant increase in the market price of nylon filament. In the second quarter, downstream demand was still acceptable, but some sources of goods were tight and the increase was significant.

The market price of nylon filament fell in the late first and second quarters. In the later part of the first quarter, due to the high prices of raw materials in the market after the Spring Festival holiday, downstream markets resumed work late, and on-site transactions were not ideal, resulting in a significant decline in prices; In the later part of the second quarter, the raw material market experienced sluggish shipments and price declines. The downstream market gradually entered the off-season, with a continuous decrease in new orders on site and a pessimistic atmosphere in the market. As a result, prices in the nylon filament market narrowly declined.

Price trend in the first half of the year

The overall price of nylon filament market has slightly increased in the first half of 2024. As of June 30th, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region is 19220 yuan/ton, an increase of 320 yuan/ton or 1.69% compared to the beginning of the year; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 16850 yuan/ton, an increase of 425 yuan/ton or 2.59% from the beginning of the year; The price of nylon FDY (premium: 40D/12F) is reported at 20225 yuan/ton, an increase of 575 yuan/ton or 2.93% from the beginning of the year

quotations analysis

At the beginning of the year, the settlement price of Sinopec Caprolactam (raw material for nylon filament) was raised multiple times, and the market for high-speed spinning of PA6 slices continued to rise, with cost support gradually increasing. In addition, downstream markets were still actively stocking up before the Spring Festival, and the trading atmosphere in the market improved. Supported by dual positive factors, the price of nylon filament market steadily increased.

After the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival) Festival, terminal demand recovered less than expected. Downstream manufacturers returned to work late, accumulated inventory, and limited demand for raw materials. It was not ideal to buy the raw material end of superposed nylon filament at a high price. The price decline continued. The market lacked good news to boost it, and the price of nylon filament fell in a stepwise manner.

Entering April, the prices of crude oil and pure benzene in the market fluctuated at high levels, while the prices of PA6 slices in the conventional spinning slice market were tight and rising, driving the price of caprolactam in the spot market to rebound and stop falling. The weekly closing price of caprolactam by Sinopec continued to rise, with strong cost support; In terms of demand, downstream domestic market equipment production remains at a high level, with strong demand and decent foreign trade business. The overall performance of the demand side is good, and the signing of orders in the nylon filament market is good. The inventory levels of various manufacturers continue to decline, and some models are out of stock. The favorable factors in the market have the upper hand, and the price of nylon filament market has skyrocketed.

In June, due to the gradual entry of the end market into the off-season of demand, the demand side showed weak performance, and the transactions of raw materials such as caprolactam and PA6 chips were not ideal, resulting in loose prices and insufficient cost support. The bearish sentiment in the market increased, and the speed of nylon filament market sales slowed down, leading to a downward trend in prices.

Supply, Inventory, and Demand Analysis

The market output of nylon filament in the first half of 2024 is about 1.44 million tons, an increase of 18.36% year-on-year. Since the beginning of the year, most of the nylon filament manufacturers have maintained high load operation, and the supply on site is relatively sufficient.

The overall inventory level of nylon filament market in the first half of 2024 has significantly decreased. In the first half of 2024, there will be strong demand in the downstream market, with no pressure on sales in the nylon filament market and a focus on delivering more orders. The inventory of various manufacturers will continue to decrease, and some models will be in short supply. However, during the Spring Festival period, logistics were suspended, and inventory in the nylon filament market slightly accumulated. After resuming work, the overall inventory level in the market entered a downward trend. At present, the overall inventory of nylon filament market is at a low level, and the supply of some models is still tight.

In the early stage of the Spring Festival, there was good demand from end-users, and downstream manufacturers had a good pre holiday stocking mood. The demand side support was still acceptable; Entering the second quarter, downstream manufacturers maintained high machine operating rates and had strong demand for raw materials. Since the “Silver Fourth” event, the domestic market has mainly focused on rigid procurement, but foreign trade business has improved and overall market demand has shown strong performance; Entering June, there are signs of weakening demand, and downstream markets are following up with multi-dimensional rigid demand small orders, making the off-season characteristics of the market increasingly evident.

Future forecast

Cost aspect: In terms of raw material caprolactam, there has been some expansion in the supply capacity of caprolactam, but downstream demand will increase. It is expected that the caprolactam market will show a slight upward trend in the second half of the year.

Supply side: Some manufacturers of nylon filament are gradually releasing new production capacity, so it is expected that the supply of nylon filament on site will increase in the second half of the year, but it will not have a significant impact on market prices.

On the demand side: Strong rigid demand, entering the off-season of demand in July and August, the on-site demand may continue to be light. However, if entering the “Golden September and Silver October” downstream demand for nylon filament may increase, coupled with the strong confidence of industry players in export business, it is expected that the favorable support from the demand side will still exist in the second half of the year.

Overall, there are upward expectations in the raw material caprolactam market and PA6 slice market, with some favorable support on the cost side; The nylon filament market currently has low inventory levels and no inventory pressure at present; Downstream market demand is expected to turn from weak to strong, and analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the overall price of nylon filament market will slightly rise in the second half of the year, showing seasonal characteristics.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of aniline has slightly increased this week. On June 10th, the market price of aniline was 12117 yuan/ton, and on June 14th it was 12166 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.39% compared to last week and 11.49% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

Pure benzene: The pure benzene market continues to decline, with an increase in upstream supply and downstream maintenance companies during the week. Supply remains loose, inventory remains high, and demand follow-up is slow. Under various pressures, the price of pure benzene has been under pressure and has fluctuated at a low level.

Nitric acid: Domestic nitric acid prices fluctuated at a low level this week. On July 22, the price was 1653 yuan/ton, and on July 26, the price was 1656 yuan/ton, with a 0.2% increase during the cycle, indicating weak support for aniline.

3、 Future expectations

At present, the production and sales of aniline in the market are weak. In the context of weak demand and declining costs, aniline has fallen to a low point seeking support. It is expected that the short-term aniline shipment mentality will continue, waiting for new news guidance.