According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from August 5th to 9th (as of 10:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market fell from 2490 yuan/ton to 2460 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.60% during the period, a month on month decrease of 1.76%, and a year-on-year increase of 7.40%. The domestic methanol market is running weakly. The supply has increased, and the domestic methanol market has a strong mentality towards yeast storage. Demand continues to operate weakly, with some traders purchasing at low prices.

As of the close on August 9th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2409, opened at 2495 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2516 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2487 yuan/ton. It closed at 2505 yuan/ton at the end of the day, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day’s settlement, an increase of 0.40%. The trading volume was 491828 lots, and the position was 626831 lots, with a daily increase of -23229.

As of 8.9, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions:

Region/ Price

Shanxi region/ 2250-2260 yuan/ton factory withdrawal in foreign exchange

Liaoning region/ 2700 yuan/ton

Anhui region/ 2440 yuan/ton

Henan region/ 2295 yuan/ton factory withdrawal in foreign exchange

In terms of cost and supply, most coal mines in the production area are currently maintaining normal production and sales, mainly relying on long-term cooperation to ensure supply, and conducting large-scale inspections of safety production hazards in some areas. The overall downstream demand is currently sluggish, and non electric terminals still maintain a small amount of transportation for essential needs. Coal plants and traders are cautious about purchasing, and market activity is weak. Sales in mining areas are generally flat, and most coal mine prices have not been adjusted yet. Some coal mines have increased their coal storage pressure, and prices have slightly decreased by 5-10 yuan/ton. The overall performance of coal prices in production areas is stagnant and weak. The impact of methanol cost is mixed.

On the demand side, downstream acetic acid: the demand for acetic acid does not fluctuate significantly; Downstream formaldehyde: Environmental inspections in the main production areas have ended, leading to an increase in demand for methanol; Downstream chloride: With the slow increase in load of mainstream factories in Shandong, there may be an increase in chloride demand; Downstream dimethyl ether: Increased demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand decreases. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.

On the supply side, the recovery amount exceeds the loss amount, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.

In terms of external markets, as of the close of August 7th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 346.00-347.00 US dollars per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 100.00-101.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 322.00-323.00 euros/ton, up 4 euros/ton.

Region/ Country/ Closing price/ Rise and fall

Asia/ CFR Southeast Asia/ 346.00-347.00 USD/ton/ 0 USD/ton

Europe and America/ American Gulf/ 100.00-101.00 cents per gallon/ 0 cents/gallon

Europe/ FOB Rotterdam/ 322.00-323.00 euros/ton/ 4 euros per ton

In the future market forecast, supply will continue to increase, and there will still be sufficient circulating goods at ports. However, downstream production is not high, and demand remains weak, with obvious weakness in spot driving. Business Society’s methanol analyst predicts that the domestic methanol market will continue to be weak.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on July 31st, the reference price for the domestic silicon metal # 441 market was 12100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1110 yuan/ton or 8.40% from July 1st (the market price for silicon metal # 441 was 13210 yuan/ton).

In July, the domestic silicon metal market experienced consecutive declines. In the first ten days, the silicon metal market entered a period of abundant water, with overall production at a high level and increasing market supply. Downstream demand digestion was average, and the weak supply and demand situation continued. In the latter half of the month, although there were some adjustments in on-site construction, some silicon companies in certain regions were unable to cope with the supply pressure and lowered their equipment operation levels. However, the overall supply level in the field remained high. Among them, the metal silicon construction in Yunnan was still close to full load operation, and downstream sentiment towards the continuous decline in the market was strong. The demand side suppressed the market trend, and the metal silicon market continued to decline.

On July 31st, the market price of metal silicon 421 # in the East China region of China was adjusted downwards. The reference price for 421 # in the East China region is around 12200~12400 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of about 100 yuan/ton. The market price of metal silicon oxygen 553 # in the domestic Xinjiang region has fallen. The reference market price for oxygen 553 # in Xinjiang is around 11200-11400 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of about 50 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of silicon metal 421 in Tianjin Port area has experienced a narrow decline, while the reference market price of 441 in Tianjin area is around 12100-12500 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of about 50 yuan/ton.

In terms of construction: Currently, the overall construction rate of the metal silicon market in Yunnan and Sichuan regions has not fluctuated much, and the construction rate is still close to full load operation. The construction of metal silicon in Xinjiang has been slightly reduced, and some large factories have stopped their metal silicon equipment for maintenance. Currently, construction is starting around the eighth floor.

In terms of inventory, in July, the overall inventory of metallic silicon in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan regions in China was in a state of slight destocking. At present, the overall inventory supply is still under pressure.

Downstream: In July, the downstream market for metal silicon and organic silicon DMC showed an overall weak downward trend. At the beginning of the month, the market price for organic silicon DMC was based on 13560 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the market price for organic silicon DMC fell to around 13200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.65% for the month. At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the organic silicon DMC market is mild, and the overall willingness of factories to ship is strong. Some downstream suppliers are restocking at low prices, and it is expected that the organic silicon DMC market will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range in the short term.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is relatively quiet, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment within the market. The downstream demand side provides insufficient support to the market. The metal silicon data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly adjust and operate in multiple intervals, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

In the first half of 2024, the market price of nylon filament fluctuated, and the overall market price center rose.

In the early first quarter and early second quarter, the market price of nylon filament showed an upward trend. Since the beginning of the year, the prices of raw materials have continued to rise, coupled with high enthusiasm for downstream market procurement and good support from the demand side. Both the cost side and demand side support are strong, resulting in a significant increase in the market price of nylon filament. In the second quarter, downstream demand was still acceptable, but some sources of goods were tight and the increase was significant.

The market price of nylon filament fell in the late first and second quarters. In the later part of the first quarter, due to the high prices of raw materials in the market after the Spring Festival holiday, downstream markets resumed work late, and on-site transactions were not ideal, resulting in a significant decline in prices; In the later part of the second quarter, the raw material market experienced sluggish shipments and price declines. The downstream market gradually entered the off-season, with a continuous decrease in new orders on site and a pessimistic atmosphere in the market. As a result, prices in the nylon filament market narrowly declined.

Price trend in the first half of the year

The overall price of nylon filament market has slightly increased in the first half of 2024. As of June 30th, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region is 19220 yuan/ton, an increase of 320 yuan/ton or 1.69% compared to the beginning of the year; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 16850 yuan/ton, an increase of 425 yuan/ton or 2.59% from the beginning of the year; The price of nylon FDY (premium: 40D/12F) is reported at 20225 yuan/ton, an increase of 575 yuan/ton or 2.93% from the beginning of the year

quotations analysis

At the beginning of the year, the settlement price of Sinopec Caprolactam (raw material for nylon filament) was raised multiple times, and the market for high-speed spinning of PA6 slices continued to rise, with cost support gradually increasing. In addition, downstream markets were still actively stocking up before the Spring Festival, and the trading atmosphere in the market improved. Supported by dual positive factors, the price of nylon filament market steadily increased.

After the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival) Festival, terminal demand recovered less than expected. Downstream manufacturers returned to work late, accumulated inventory, and limited demand for raw materials. It was not ideal to buy the raw material end of superposed nylon filament at a high price. The price decline continued. The market lacked good news to boost it, and the price of nylon filament fell in a stepwise manner.

Entering April, the prices of crude oil and pure benzene in the market fluctuated at high levels, while the prices of PA6 slices in the conventional spinning slice market were tight and rising, driving the price of caprolactam in the spot market to rebound and stop falling. The weekly closing price of caprolactam by Sinopec continued to rise, with strong cost support; In terms of demand, downstream domestic market equipment production remains at a high level, with strong demand and decent foreign trade business. The overall performance of the demand side is good, and the signing of orders in the nylon filament market is good. The inventory levels of various manufacturers continue to decline, and some models are out of stock. The favorable factors in the market have the upper hand, and the price of nylon filament market has skyrocketed.

In June, due to the gradual entry of the end market into the off-season of demand, the demand side showed weak performance, and the transactions of raw materials such as caprolactam and PA6 chips were not ideal, resulting in loose prices and insufficient cost support. The bearish sentiment in the market increased, and the speed of nylon filament market sales slowed down, leading to a downward trend in prices.

Supply, Inventory, and Demand Analysis

The market output of nylon filament in the first half of 2024 is about 1.44 million tons, an increase of 18.36% year-on-year. Since the beginning of the year, most of the nylon filament manufacturers have maintained high load operation, and the supply on site is relatively sufficient.

The overall inventory level of nylon filament market in the first half of 2024 has significantly decreased. In the first half of 2024, there will be strong demand in the downstream market, with no pressure on sales in the nylon filament market and a focus on delivering more orders. The inventory of various manufacturers will continue to decrease, and some models will be in short supply. However, during the Spring Festival period, logistics were suspended, and inventory in the nylon filament market slightly accumulated. After resuming work, the overall inventory level in the market entered a downward trend. At present, the overall inventory of nylon filament market is at a low level, and the supply of some models is still tight.

In the early stage of the Spring Festival, there was good demand from end-users, and downstream manufacturers had a good pre holiday stocking mood. The demand side support was still acceptable; Entering the second quarter, downstream manufacturers maintained high machine operating rates and had strong demand for raw materials. Since the “Silver Fourth” event, the domestic market has mainly focused on rigid procurement, but foreign trade business has improved and overall market demand has shown strong performance; Entering June, there are signs of weakening demand, and downstream markets are following up with multi-dimensional rigid demand small orders, making the off-season characteristics of the market increasingly evident.

Future forecast

Cost aspect: In terms of raw material caprolactam, there has been some expansion in the supply capacity of caprolactam, but downstream demand will increase. It is expected that the caprolactam market will show a slight upward trend in the second half of the year.

Supply side: Some manufacturers of nylon filament are gradually releasing new production capacity, so it is expected that the supply of nylon filament on site will increase in the second half of the year, but it will not have a significant impact on market prices.

On the demand side: Strong rigid demand, entering the off-season of demand in July and August, the on-site demand may continue to be light. However, if entering the “Golden September and Silver October” downstream demand for nylon filament may increase, coupled with the strong confidence of industry players in export business, it is expected that the favorable support from the demand side will still exist in the second half of the year.

Overall, there are upward expectations in the raw material caprolactam market and PA6 slice market, with some favorable support on the cost side; The nylon filament market currently has low inventory levels and no inventory pressure at present; Downstream market demand is expected to turn from weak to strong, and analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the overall price of nylon filament market will slightly rise in the second half of the year, showing seasonal characteristics.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of aniline has slightly increased this week. On June 10th, the market price of aniline was 12117 yuan/ton, and on June 14th it was 12166 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.39% compared to last week and 11.49% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

Pure benzene: The pure benzene market continues to decline, with an increase in upstream supply and downstream maintenance companies during the week. Supply remains loose, inventory remains high, and demand follow-up is slow. Under various pressures, the price of pure benzene has been under pressure and has fluctuated at a low level.

Nitric acid: Domestic nitric acid prices fluctuated at a low level this week. On July 22, the price was 1653 yuan/ton, and on July 26, the price was 1656 yuan/ton, with a 0.2% increase during the cycle, indicating weak support for aniline.

3、 Future expectations

At present, the production and sales of aniline in the market are weak. In the context of weak demand and declining costs, aniline has fallen to a low point seeking support. It is expected that the short-term aniline shipment mentality will continue, waiting for new news guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of pure benzene has fallen this month, with a price of 8834.67 yuan/ton on July 12th; On July 12th, the price was 8544.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.18% from the beginning of the month and an increase of 25.65% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

Pure benzene: The overall trend of pure benzene continues to decline. At present, the inventory of pure benzene at ports in Jiangsu Province continues to rise, with a total inventory of 44000 tons, an increase of 14000 tons or 46.67% compared to the previous period’s inventory of 30000 tons. The downstream maintenance equipment for pure benzene has increased, and it is expected that inventory will rise in July and August. As of July 19th, the mainstream spot price of pure benzene in Shandong market is 8500 yuan/ton. At present, the downward trend of pure benzene market has slightly stopped, and it is expected that the price of pure benzene will mainly decline slightly in late July.

This month, the price of pure benzene from Sinopec has dropped to 8600 yuan/ton.

Downstream aspects

The market price of styrene has slightly decreased this week. International oil prices have fluctuated, with a significant decline in the pure benzene market and poor cost support, while the styrene market has risen to a relatively high level. Spot demand is mainly driven by rigid demand, and downstream resistance to high price levels is slightly evident, resulting in a slight decline in the styrene market. At present, the transaction price of styrene in Jiangsu region is 9510-9550 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

Crude oil: NYMEX crude oil futures 08 contract fell $0.03/barrel or 0.04% at 82.82; ICE Brent Oil Futures 09 contract 85.11 rose 0.03 USD/barrel or 0.04%. The main contract for Chinese INE crude oil futures, 2409, rose 6.1 to 614.1 yuan/barrel, and fell 0.1 to 614 yuan/barrel in the evening session.

Crude oil prices are fluctuating in a high range, downstream equipment maintenance is frequent, procurement is weak, and port pure benzene inventories are rising. In the short term, pure benzene may continue to decline, and we are waiting to see if the cost and demand sides can improve. Continue to monitor the trends of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of changes in pure benzene and downstream equipment dynamics and demand on the price of pure benzene.

The domestic fluorite price trend has slightly declined this week. As of the weekend, the average domestic fluorite price was 3741.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.33% from the early week price of 3753.75 yuan/ton and a year-on-year increase of 22.16%.

Supply side: There is little change in the supply of low-level fluorite during mining operations

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, the national department will carry out rectification of fluorite mines in the near future, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Some mines have conducted safety hazard inspections, and the difficulty of starting fluorite mines has increased. The shortage of raw materials has limited the operating rate of fluorite enterprises. In addition, the impact of high temperature and rainy weather has made it difficult to increase the operating rate of fluorite. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight, and the.

Demand side: Weak demand for hydrofluoric acid, declining production of refrigerants

This week, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market trend has declined, and the mainstream price for hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China is negotiated at 10800-11300 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market is weak, and some units are still shut down recently. The spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has not changed much, and manufacturers have low orders for purchasing hydrofluoric acid. The price of hydrofluoric acid is dragging down the domestic fluorite market, and some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers are purchasing on demand, causing a slight decline in the domestic fluorite market.

The downstream refrigerant market in the terminal continues to be deadlocked due to poor demand transmission. After entering the off-season of production, the market production demand weakened. In addition, the recent rainy weather has led to poor stocking of refrigerant companies, which has resulted in a lack of enthusiasm for upstream product procurement. The industry has maintained a low level of production, and the market for some refrigerant products has declined. As a result, the fluorite market has slightly declined.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as defense and nuclear industries, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrode, photovoltaic panel, etc. With the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor fields, fluorite applications have received certain support, and the fluorite market has maintained a high level.

Market forecast: In the near future, it will be difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines. Large mines will continue to operate for essential needs, while many small and medium-sized enterprises will continue to shut down. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. However, the downstream hydrofluoric acid market trend is declining, and the demand for refrigerants in the downstream industry is gradually weakening. Both long and short factors are affecting the market. Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society, believes that fluorite prices may slightly fall in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on July 9th was 956 yuan/ton, which is a decrease of 1.88% compared to the average price of 974 yuan/ton on July 1st.

2、 Market analysis

Entering July, the domestic ammonium sulfate market saw a slight pullback after a decline in price. At present, the enterprise is operating steadily and the market supply is sufficient. The international market situation has not improved yet, and domestic manufacturers are cautious and watching. Recently, the price of domestic ammonium sulfate has slightly increased, with downstream procurement mainly based on demand. As of July 9th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 940 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation for ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 930-960 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Shengyishe Ammonium Sulfate, the recent market trend of ammonium sulfate has seen a narrow upward trend. At present, downstream delivery is cautious and the market has a strong wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic ammonium sulfate price will mainly consolidate and operate within a narrow range.

According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, at the end of June, supply tightened and the hydrogen peroxide market rose. On June 24th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 920 yuan/ton. On June 28th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 950 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.26%.

Supply tightening, hydrogen peroxide market rising

At the end of June, a fire accident occurred in the hydrogen peroxide oxidation tower of Tianjin Bohua Chemical Development Co., Ltd., involving an annual production capacity of 100000 tons of hydrogen peroxide. The supply is tightening, and the overall hydrogen peroxide market is rising. The overall quotation is 850-1000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of about 50 yuan/ton. Among them, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Shandong region is about 850 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 20 yuan/ton. The average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Hebei region is 850 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 20 yuan/ton. The average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Anhui region is about 1000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 50 yuan/ton.

Chemical analysts from Business Society believe that in July, hydrogen peroxide manufacturers began to shut down for maintenance, and there is still room for an upward trend in the hydrogen peroxide market in the future.

After a continuous decline of nearly a month and a half, the domestic acrylonitrile market price has recently stopped falling and stabilized. The self pickup price in East China ports remains fluctuating around 9450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1350 yuan/ton from the high point in April, a decrease of 12.5%. The prices continued to decline in the early stage, mainly due to an increase in supply and weak demand. Recently, with the increase in raw material costs, some production enterprises have already incurred losses. Therefore, acrylonitrile manufacturers have a strong willingness to raise prices, and on this basis, the expectation of contract settlement for this month has also become clearer. Buying has also followed up appropriately, and the market downturn has temporarily stopped.

From the perspective of supply, some devices have undergone maintenance and pressure relief has been achieved

The capacity utilization rate of the acrylonitrile industry has once again dropped to below 80%, currently around 78%. The reduction in production alleviates the pressure of oversupply in the north and south, making factory inventory controllable and providing manufacturers with the motivation to raise prices.

Looking at the consumer market, the demand side is still weak

As the domestic supply of acrylonitrile increased in June, downstream consumption also showed a month on month growth. The operating rate of the acrylic and ABS industries has improved compared to the previous month, especially after the maintenance of large acrylic factories, the production consumption has significantly increased. At the same time, considering the maintenance of acrylonitrile plants in the north, the purchasing enthusiasm of acrylic factories has also increased. It is estimated that the domestic consumption of acrylonitrile in June will reach around 240000 to 250000 tons, an increase of 20000 to 30000 tons compared to May. Downstream large factories have stable contract purchases, so the overall inventory of acrylonitrile factories is controllable, which is also the main supporting factor for the recent slowdown in the market downturn.

But the overall downstream demand will gradually enter the off-season, and the growth trend of consumption may be difficult to continue, and there will be a weakening performance. The average operating rate of domestic ABS devices is 68.80%, a month on month decrease of 0.24%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.24%. Overall, the demand for acrylonitrile is still weak, which is also the main reason why the market has only stopped falling, and the market still lacks sufficient and effective rebound momentum.

From the perspective of the propylene raw material market, cost increases

In June, there was an occasional increase in maintenance of some external PDH propylene units, leading to local supply shortages and driving up propylene prices. At present, the price of propylene in the Shandong market has reached 7275 yuan/ton, an increase of 475 yuan/ton from early June. For acrylonitrile factories that outsource raw materials, the cost of propylene raw materials has increased by nearly 500 yuan/ton. At the same time, due to the continuous decline in acrylonitrile prices, production gross profit has significantly decreased, and single product calculations have shown a loss state. Due to increased cost pressure, acrylonitrile manufacturers have shown a stronger willingness to enter the market. As a result, the industry’s capacity utilization rate has not been further improved, and some units have reduced their load.

Overall, the domestic propylene market is mainly operating weakly in the short term, with average cost support. In the latter half of the year, businesses are mainly observing the settlement of large acrylonitrile factories, while maintaining essential procurement on the market. With no obvious news to boost, the market transaction focus has not changed much. It is expected that the mainstream negotiated price for self pickup of cans from East China ports will be around 9300-9500 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from May 24th to June 7th, the domestic ethanol price increased from 5987 yuan/ton to 6007 yuan/ton, with a weekly price drop of 0.33%, a month on month increase of 0.12%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.63%. The domestic ethanol market has rebounded and fluctuated. With the maintenance of some equipment, there is not much pressure on holders to ship, and delivery vehicles are still queuing up. The trading volume is good, and the price remains high.

On the cost side, imported corn continues to arrive at the port, and the domestic corn market has sufficient supply. The price of wheat in Linchi continues to decline, and the substitution effect for feed is becoming stronger. Downstream demand is more cautious, and many bearish factors are suppressing it. It is expected that the domestic corn market price will continue to rise in June without sufficient momentum, and the overall situation will fluctuate slightly at the current level. The cost of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, there are significant differences in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions; Less than 40% of construction in East China has started; About 80% of the construction in Northeast China has started; The operating rate in southern and southwestern regions is about 20%. The supply side of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, the demand for Baijiu continues to be weak, with limited efforts to boost the market; The market for chemical ethyl ester procurement is smooth, with a focus on price reduction procurement; Methyl ethyl ester production is stable with little fluctuation. Short term ethanol demand is affected by bearish factors.

In the future, it is predicted that at present, the cost side and the supply side are supported by favorable factors, Baijiu and chemical procurement are not good, and the receiving price has declined month on month. Ethanol analysts from the Supply and Demand Game Business Society predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market will mainly consolidate.