The acetone market saw a narrow upward trend in October. According to the analysis system of Business Society, the national acetone market reported an average of 5865 yuan/ton on October 1st, rising to 6005 yuan/ton on October 31st, an increase of 2.39%. Looking at the acetone market in East China, it reported an average of 5680 yuan/ton on October 1st, rising to 5780 yuan/ton on October 31st, an increase of 3.35%.

In the first half of the month, the concentration of port cargo increased, and the mentality of traders was positive, which was boosted. The offer was pushed up, but there was no intention to lower it. Downstream sporadic terminal factories made purchases, and the trading atmosphere improved. In the second half of the month, port inventory continued to decline, and the supply of goods was mainly concentrated in the hands of a few traders. Traders had a high upward sentiment, and the average price at the end of the month exceeded 6000 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply, as of the end of the month, the inventory at Jiangyin Port was 20500 tons, including 18000 tons in Huaxi and 2500 tons in Hengyang.

In terms of equipment: Jilin Petrochemical’s 150000 tons/year phenol ketone unit will be shut down for maintenance starting from March 4th, and is expected to undergo maintenance for about a year; Jiangsu Ruiheng 650000 tons/year phenol ketone plant will shut down from October 9th to 14th; Changchun Chemical’s 480000 tons/year phenol ketone plant will be shut down for maintenance on October 10th, with an estimated 45 days.

From the demand side, the top two downstream industries have relatively stable production, with bisphenol A production at 60% and acetone cyanohydrin MMA production at 50%. The overall production of bisphenol A and MMA downstream is stable, with limited export orders for isopropanol and domestic facilities maintaining a level close to 50%.

It is expected to remain stable and rise in November. Upstream, the external environment is weak, and the cost support is weak. On the supply side, Sinopec Mitsui will shut down for maintenance in mid to late November. Changchun Chemical Plant is expected to resume operation in mid November, and Dongying New Plant is expected to have goods for export in November. The expected import volume is between 32000 and 35000 tons, and Business Society expects the market to steadily advance in November. The overall monthly average price may be higher than that in October, and the market price in East China is around 5700-6150 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of light soda ash remained stable this week. On October 31st, the average market price of soda ash was 1584 yuan/ton, and on October 28th, the soda ash price was 1584 yuan/ton. The price remained stable during the week, with a decrease of 1.86% compared to the beginning of the month.

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the soda ash market remained stable this week. On the supply side, the utilization rate of soda ash production capacity has been reduced, and the market supply of goods has slightly decreased. However, in terms of demand, downstream follow-up is still weak, and the consumption of soda ash is not obvious. On site trading is weak, and soda ash enterprises have accumulated inventory. The soda ash market remained weak and watchful during the week.

As of October 31st, the reference price for the soda ash market in East China is around 1420-1600 yuan/ton for light soda ash; The reference price for the soda ash market in Central China is around 1370-1600 yuan/ton for the mainstream price of light soda ash.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the downstream glass market continues to rise. From October 28th to 31st, the price of glass increased from 15.75 yuan/square meter to 15.95 yuan/square meter, an increase of 1.27%. The downstream demand in the glass market is good, with smooth shipments from manufacturers and significant destocking in the market. Glass prices are rising steadily, and the market is running strongly this week.

Future forecast: Currently, the utilization rate of domestic soda ash production capacity continues to be high, spot alkali factory inventory is sufficient, enterprise sales are under pressure, downstream glass prices are relatively strong, but the boost to soda ash market demand is limited. Under the supply-demand game, it is expected that soda ash will continue to be weakly consolidated in the short term, and specific attention should be paid to downstream demand follow-up.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PP market situation remained stagnant and consolidated at the end of October, with prices of various brand products fluctuating. As of October 29th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic manufacturers and traders is around 7592.86 yuan/ton, and the price level has basically returned to the beginning of the month.

Price trend

In terms of raw materials:

In terms of international crude oil, the current geopolitical situation is showing a tense trend, while some consumption has slightly improved, to some extent boosting the market. But on October 28th, international crude oil futures fell sharply, so the market turned weak and came under pressure. At the same time, the contraction of propylene supply is favorable for the market, but with the gradual caution in chasing high consumption, there will be a slowdown in the increase at the end of the month accompanied by a narrow correction. The domestic supply of methanol has recovered in the early stage, but there is a lack of strong support on the supply and demand side, and prices are running at a stalemate. Previously, the price of propane was relatively stable due to internal low and external high pulling each other. Overall, at the end of October, PP raw materials experienced more declines and less increases, with average support on the cost side.

Supply side:

At the end of October, the load level of domestic PP enterprises was reduced due to the implementation of some enterprise equipment maintenance plans. The maintenance of production lines in the latter half of the year is concentrated in the southern region of China, with an overall industry load of around 76.5%. At present, the inventory of two barrels of PP oil in China is stable at around 765000 tons, which has decreased compared to mid month. But the supply is still at a sufficient level. Overall, the supply side provides sufficient support for PP spot prices.

In terms of demand:

At the end of October, there was a certain increase in demand for PP, and the load on end enterprises has risen. The consumption of woven bags such as fertilizers, cement, and rice continues to increase, and the warehousing of plastic weaving enterprises has generally decreased, with an increase in willingness to build warehouses. On the other hand, due to the cooling weather, downstream consumption of PP non-woven fabrics has also rebounded, which has to some extent boosted the demand for fiber PP materials. The demand side has seen a narrow increase in support for PP spot goods.

Future forecast

At the end of October, the price of PP in the domestic Chinese market remained stagnant and consolidated. Fundamentally speaking, the comprehensive support of upstream raw materials for PP is average, while the demand side is expected to heat up in the short term due to the increase in e-commerce consumption. However, the previous increase has to some extent suppressed domestic trading, coupled with the weakened impact of loose funding policies and the negative impact of industry expansion in the fourth quarter. In the short term, it is expected that PP prices will continue to operate in a consolidation manner.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 28th, the reference average price of domestic urea market is 2175 yuan/ton, which is 1.18% lower than the reference average price of 2201 yuan/ton on October 21st.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

The domestic urea market prices have remained stable after a slight decline this week. As of October 28th, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1770-1800 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1830 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1800 yuan/ton, and in Hubei region it is around 1850 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation

The supply and demand balance in the urea market this week. In terms of supply, the urea market has sufficient supply this week, and the production of enterprises has remained at a high level. In terms of demand, downstream purchases are made on demand, with a focus on essential needs and limited market transactions.

3、 Future forecast

The urea analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the urea market has remained stable in recent days, with no significant fluctuations in the market. At present, there is no positive news in the urea market. It is expected that the domestic urea market will experience a narrow range of price consolidation and operation in the short term.

This week, the phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 25th, the price of phthalic anhydride produced by phthalic anhydride was 7175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.54% from the price of 7287.50 yuan/ton on October 18th; Compared to October 1st, the price of phthalic anhydride at 7200 yuan/ton first rose and then fell, with a decrease of 0.35%. This week, the production of phthalic anhydride equipment has been stable, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is sufficient. However, the actual transactions in the phthalic anhydride market are limited, resulting in oversupply and significant downward pressure on phthalic anhydride prices. This week, the domestic price of ortho phthalic anhydride is 6900-7200 yuan/ton, while the price of industrial naphthalene is stabilizing. The cost of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has decreased, and the domestic price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is 6700-7000 yuan/ton. The price of ortho benzene is temporarily stable, the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride is stabilizing, the price of industrial naphthalene is temporarily stable, and the cost support of naphthalene phthalic anhydride still exists. The overall price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen.

Supply side: Adequate supply of goods

This week, the operating load of domestic phthalic anhydride plants has increased. 80% of the phthalic anhydride equipment in Tongling, Anhui has started construction; The 100000 ton phthalic anhydride plant of Xinyang Group is operating normally, and the phthalic anhydride equipment of Shandong Hongxin is starting up normally; Panjin Ruide Chemical’s phthalic anhydride equipment is operating at 80% load, while Shijiazhuang Bailong Chemical’s phthalic anhydride equipment is operating normally. Phthalic anhydride manufacturers have stable sources of goods and sufficient supply of phthalic anhydride.

The cost of raw material ortho benzene is temporarily stable

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 25th, the price of ortho benzene was 7100 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the price of ortho benzene of 7100 yuan/ton on October 1st. The price of ortho benzene is temporarily stable, the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride is stable, and the downward pressure on ortho phthalic anhydride is weak.

Demand side: The DOP market has fluctuated and stabilized this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 25th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9226.25 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and increased by 0.14% compared to the DOP price of 9213.75 yuan/ton on October 18th last weekend; Compared to October 1st, the DOP price of 8988.75 yuan/ton first rose and then fell, with a 2.64% increase. The price of isooctanol is fluctuating and stabilizing, DOP costs are temporarily stable, DOP manufacturers have orders for sales, downstream demand and procurement are generally active, DOP manufacturers have stable high production levels, DOP supply is sufficient, supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the price of plasticizer DOP is fluctuating and stabilizing. Downstream demand is relatively stable, and phthalic anhydride is in urgent need of procurement. The enthusiasm for phthalic anhydride transactions is average.

Future forecast

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of cost, the price of ortho xylene is temporarily stable, while the cost of phthalic anhydride is stabilizing; In terms of supply, phthalic anhydride manufacturers are operating at high loads, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is sufficient; In terms of demand, DOP manufacturers have stable production and phthalic anhydride is urgently needed for procurement. The expected increase in supply is greater than the increase in demand, and it is expected that the market for phthalic anhydride will fluctuate and decline in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on October 21 was 883 yuan/ton, which is 3.28% lower than the average price of 913 yuan/ton on October 14.

2、 Market analysis

The price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market has fallen this week. This week, the operating rate of ammonium sulfate enterprises has increased, and the market supply has increased. The downstream purchasing intention is not strong, the market inquiries have decreased, and there are many low-priced purchases, causing the market transaction center to continuously shift downwards. The demand for exports has weakened, and the market is running weakly. As of October 21st, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 800 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 850-900 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the ammonium sulfate market has been weak and declining recently, with the overall trend being mainly downward. At present, the market trading atmosphere is quiet, coupled with poor export market conditions. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market price will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

This week, the price of isooctanol stopped falling and remained stable

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 18th, the price of isooctanol was 9200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.43% from the price of 9333.33 yuan/ton on October 11th last weekend; Compared to October 1st, the price of isooctanol at 8706.67 yuan/ton first rose and then fell, with an increase of 5.67%. After the holiday, the replenishment of isooctanol has ended, and the price of isooctanol has fallen from a high level. Demand support still exists, and the price of isooctanol has stabilized after stopping the decline.

Downstream plasticizer DOP prices stabilize after falling

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 18th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9213.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.81% from the DOP price of 9288.75 yuan/ton on October 11th last weekend; Compared to October 1st, the DOP price of 8988.75 yuan/ton first rose and then fell, with a 2.50% increase. Plasticizers will be replenished after the holiday, leading to an increase in demand for DOP and a rise in DOP prices. With the end of inventory replenishment and a decline in demand, the price of plasticizer DOP has fallen from a high level. But with the recovery of the economy and the support of demand for plasticizers and octanol, the demand for octanol still exists, and the price of octanol has stopped falling and stabilized.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product, as the price of octanol rises to a high level, downstream customers’ resistance to high prices increases, market purchasing enthusiasm decreases, and coupled with the end of downstream customer inventory replenishment, octanol prices fall back from a high level; Positive policies continue to be implemented, economic expectations are expected to rebound, downstream customers are more proactive in receiving goods, and the price of octanol has stopped falling and stabilized. In the future, with favorable policies and a relatively warm sentiment in the octanol market, there is still support for octanol demand. Octanol manufacturers are starting to recover, and there is sufficient supply of isooctanol. The octanol market supply and demand are relatively balanced, and octanol prices are fluctuating and consolidating.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic isopropanol market has slightly increased this week. On Monday, the average price of isopropanol in China was 6710 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 6760 yuan/ton. The price increased by 0.75% during the week.

The isopropanol market has slightly increased this week. At present, there are limited on-site inquiries, and the market trading atmosphere is still average. The trading focus is stabilizing, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. There is a strong demand for goods, and caution is exercised when placing actual orders. As of now, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 6700-6800 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 7000 yuan/ton, while in the South China region, the price is around 7250 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, the market price of acetone fluctuated slightly this week. The average price of acetone on Monday was 5865 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 5885 yuan/ton. The price first rose and then fell, with a slight overall increase of 0.51%. Returning after the holiday, the trading atmosphere in the market is still good, and the mentality of holders of goods is not fluctuating much. The offers are adjusted according to the market, and the overall range is adjusted. The purchasing power of end-users is limited, and it is expected that the short-term acetone market will not fluctuate much.

In terms of propylene, the overall price of propylene market has increased this week. On Monday, the average domestic propylene price was 6513.25 yuan/ton, and on Friday, the average price was 6745.75 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 3.57%. At present, the inventory of enterprises has decreased, and some manufacturers have a strong willingness to push up prices, with downstream demand being the main focus. It is expected that the market will strengthen and consolidate in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The isopropanol analyst from Business Society Chemical Branch believes that the price of isopropanol has slightly increased this week. The acetone market has fluctuated and risen, while the propylene market price has increased, and the cost support is still strong. After the holiday, downstream procurement enthusiasm is weak, with a focus on essential needs. It is expected that the isopropanol market will continue to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic BDO market continued to weaken in September. From September 1st to 30th, the average price of BDO in China fell from 8171 yuan/ton to 7400 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 9.44% during the period and a year-on-year price drop of 33.25%.

Multiple sets of equipment maintenance, agent replacement, and load reduction have reduced the industry’s capacity utilization rate to just over 50%, resulting in a significant reduction in supply. After the BDO market price fell to a historical level, the industry suffered severe losses, and production enterprises focused on maintaining a stable market mentality. The overall downstream load of the terminal has increased, but after most factories restock at low prices, their short-term intention to purchase raw materials is not strong, and the domestic BDO market continues to be weak.

Supply side: In terms of equipment, 15 sets of BDO maintenance or replacement units will be installed in September, with a total production capacity of 1.714 million tons per year; Under the pressure of losses, some units were forced to shut down one after another. At the same time, some of the previously shut down units have not been restarted and new production capacity has not yet been put into operation, resulting in a significant decline in industry capacity utilization. The monthly BDO production has been reduced to the lowest point of the year, and the supply side has a certain advantage. The supplier’s price mentality has driven the contraction of the October cycle sales policy, limiting the market’s downward space. The supply side of BDO is affected by favorable factors.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: As the holiday approaches, logistics pressure increases. Downstream stocking is active, but currently some enterprises have insufficient stocking, coupled with the instability of the supply side, the purchasing enthusiasm of various enterprises remains undiminished. The calcium carbide market continues to show positive news. In terms of methanol, the domestic methanol market was relatively strong in September, and the BDO cost deviated from the positive factors.

On the demand side, the main downstream PTMEG spandex industry chain has a relatively high monthly load, but other downstream loads are average, resulting in an overall reduction in raw material digestion. At the same time, most downstream industries have followed the resonance of raw materials downward, with profits in a loss state. They mainly follow up on the continuation of raw material contracts, and most of them carry out certain replenishment operations when raw material prices are low. Therefore, the intention to stock up before the National Day holiday is not strong, which suppresses the trend of raw materials. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.

In the future market forecast, there are plans to restart some facilities, and new production capacity is also expected to be put into operation in the near future, leading to an increase in market supply of goods. After the holiday, downstream storage and replenishment of essential goods are the main focus, and there is no significant breakthrough on the demand side. Business analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market will continue to weaken and consolidate.

This week (9.19-9.29), the dichloromethane market showed a stable and upward trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 29th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2695 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.1%.

The dichloromethane market has experienced a stable, moderate, and slight upward trend, with a relatively optimistic trading atmosphere. The delivery process of enterprises in Shandong region is smooth, and the market performance is particularly impressive; Enterprises in the southern region, on the other hand, maintain a relatively stable but slightly calm state. As the holiday approaches, the inventory pressure of enterprises is relatively low. The market generally believes that the possibility of a significant adjustment in the price of dichloromethane before the holiday season is small, and buyers’ enthusiasm for continuing to stock up before the holiday is not high. As of September 29th, the ex factory price of mainstream dichloromethane in Shandong region is around 2670-2720 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, the load of the equipment has been reduced, and the production of methane chloride has slightly decreased.

In terms of raw materials: Recently, the upward movement of raw material prices has strongly supported the upward trend of dichloromethane market. The market for raw material methanol has stopped falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 28th, the spot price of methanol was 2428.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.57% compared to September 19th. The overall supply of goods is abundant, but the growth rate on the demand side is relatively limited. The center of gravity of the liquid chlorine market has shifted upward, and the trading atmosphere in the market is still acceptable.

In terms of demand: Dichloromethane has a wide range of applications, and downstream refrigerant R32 was overused by air conditioning companies in the first half of the year, resulting in a continuous increase in demand. The quota policy has a significant impact on R32, with a market price of around 38000 yuan/ton. Procurement channels have not fallen back, and the market remains strong. Positive support for dichloromethane formation.

Business analysts believe that as the holiday approaches, the short-term price of dichloromethane will consolidate, supported by rising raw material prices. After the holiday, major factories will shut down for maintenance, and it is expected that the focus of the dichloromethane market will shift upward.