This week, the price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 16th, the DOP price was 8576.25 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 2.83% compared to the DOP price of 8826.25 yuan/ton on December 9th. The price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, the cost of plasticizers has decreased, and the enthusiasm of plasticizer enterprises to start production has increased. The operating rate of plasticizers is high, and the supply of plasticizers is sufficient. The downstream PVC off-season is approaching, the demand for plasticizers is falling, the risk of excessive inventory of plasticizer DOP is intensifying, and the price of plasticizer DOP is fluctuating and falling.

Downstream demand is lukewarm

Downstream PVC product enterprises have low production rates, and the downstream market is traditionally off-season, resulting in a decrease in downstream PVC production. The weather in the north is gradually turning cold, and demand is weak; The downstream market is declining, and the downward pressure on plasticizers is increasing.

The cost of raw materials fluctuates and falls

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 16th, the price of isooctanol was 8200 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 4.65% compared to the price of 8600 yuan/ton on December 9th. Isooctanol enterprises started production at a high level and remained stable. In addition, new octanol production capacity was gradually put into operation in December, resulting in a significant increase in isooctanol supply in December. The downstream demand increment is not as significant as the increment of octanol, and there is an oversupply of isooctanol, which increases the downward pressure on isooctanol and causes its price to fluctuate and fall.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen, and the cost of plasticizer DOP has decreased; In terms of demand, the off-season is approaching, and downstream production and inventory are expected to decrease, leading to a decline in demand for plasticizers; On the supply side, plasticizer companies have high profits, and their enthusiasm for starting work has increased. With high starting work, the supply of plasticizers has increased. In the future, the prices of raw materials will decline, and the cost of plasticizers will decrease; The off-season is approaching, with a decrease in demand, cost reduction, and weak demand. Coupled with oversupply, it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, since December 1st, the terminal demand has been poor and the hydrogen peroxide market has weakened. On December 1st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 760 yuan/ton, and on December 13th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 713 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.14% in price.

Weak terminal demand, sluggish hydrogen peroxide market

Since December 1st, the terminal demand has been weak, the transaction volume of hydrogen peroxide market has decreased, and the sales have been flat. Negative factors have suppressed the hydrogen peroxide market, and the overall quotation is 680-700 yuan/ton. On December 1st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Shandong was around 700 yuan/ton, with a price reduction. The average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Hebei was 680 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 120 yuan/ton; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Anhui region is around 760 yuan/ton, and the price remains stable; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Hangzhou area is 950 yuan/ton, and the market remains stable.

Business Society Chemical Analysts believe that after mid December, the demand for hydrogen peroxide terminals will remain sluggish, and the future market for hydrogen peroxide will have weak upward momentum.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine has been running weakly this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 22400 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 21900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.23% and a decrease of 13.44% compared to the same period last year. On December 8th, the bromine commodity index was 77.19, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 68.52% from the highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27) during the cycle, and an increase of 31.01% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29th, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of bromine has been running weakly, with prices in Shandong region running weakly. The mainstream market price is around 21500-22000 yuan/ton, and downstream demand for flame retardants is weak. The manufacturer’s inventory is in the middle, and imported bromine is normal. It is expected that prices will remain stable in the short term. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have remained strong, with an average market price of 1661 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 1721 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The price has increased by 3.61%, which is 66.36% higher than the same period last year. Downstream demand is still acceptable.

Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to remain weak in the near future, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to remain strong. However, downstream demand for bromine has decreased, with demand mainly driven by on-demand procurement. Additionally, there is a significant amount of imported bromine. The overall supply-demand game suggests that bromine prices may continue to consolidate in the later stages, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of December 6th, the average price of industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane in China was 7700 yuan/ton. As of December 6th, the domestic cyclohexane market has been operating narrowly and weakly, with market transaction prices maintained at around 7500 yuan/ton. This week, the overall market for cyclohexane has risen narrowly, with prices increasing by 0.76% compared to the same period last week. Currently, there is sufficient spot supply of cyclohexane, and the market supply and demand are balanced.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost: Currently, upstream pure benzene shipments are good, with prices showing a narrow but strong trend. Prices in Shandong have slightly increased, while pure benzene nationwide has seen slight growth. Currently, downstream market demand is still acceptable, with pure benzene transaction prices around 7500 yuan/ton. Pure benzene negotiation prices in the East China region continue to be high, and the trend is consolidating. The listing prices of main manufacturers have all increased. Currently, the supply in the market is tight, and downstream demand remains strong. It is expected that the focus of negotiations will continue to shift upward in the short term.

Downstream: This week, the price of cyclohexanone, a downstream product, has mainly risen. The supply and demand sides have shown signs of material numbers, and there is a slight tightness in the supply of spot goods. Inventory is running at a low level, and there is still reluctance to sell. High prices of cyclohexanone are frequent, and it is expected that the market position of cyclohexanone will continue to rise in the short term, mainly due to favorable costs in the early stages of consumption.

3、 Future forecast

The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that there is currently some support in upstream prices, and downstream demand is good. It is expected that the cyclohexane market will maintain its current trend in the short term, with a stable to strong operation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market first fell and then rose in November 2024, with an overall downward trend. From November 1st to 29th, the domestic toluene market price fell from 5860 yuan/ton to 5800 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.02% during the period.

In the first half of the month, the overall focus of the toluene market was relatively low, with the disproportionation industry being the main industry in Shandong. The purchasing enthusiasm of other industries was not high, and the overall downstream demand was more rigid. Overall, the toluene market had a strong supply-demand game mentality, with narrow fluctuations in the market trend.

In the second half of the month, the trend of the toluene market slightly increased this week, with an increase in demand for disproportionation and gasoline in Shandong region, supporting the price increase of local refineries. The futures market strengthened, boosting the mentality of the toluene market. Recently, there have been fewer goods arriving at the port, and the port inventory is running at a low level. Overall, the toluene market has slightly rebounded this week, and market sentiment is still positive.

On the cost side: International crude oil maintained a range bound fluctuation trend this cycle, with a wide decline in oil prices by the end of the month. On November 25th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $68.94 per barrel, a decrease of $2.30 or 3.2%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $73.01 per barrel, a decrease of $2.16 or 2.9% The crude oil analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the significant drop in oil prices this time is due to the short-term geopolitical risk reduction caused by the ceasefire news. In the later stage, the trend may still return to the supply and demand fundamentals, as the turmoil in the Middle East has not had a greater impact on crude oil supply than expected by the market. In addition, OPEC’s production control policy will continue to play a regulatory role in oil prices. Considering the current low level of oil prices, it is expected that crude oil will not have a significant downward momentum in the short term, but the market should also be cautious about the risks brought by short-term adjustments.

Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene quotation first fell and then rose during the cycle, with little fluctuation. Currently, the company is operating normally, with stable plant production and mostly self use products, resulting in stable production and sales. As of November 29th, East China Company quoted 5800 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5800 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 58700-5850 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5750 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and the demand support for toluene is relatively weak

On November 29th, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with the current execution price of 7300 yuan/ton. This price is being implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other facilities are operating stably, with normal sales, and the price is unchanged from October 31st. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of November 28th, the closing prices of the xylene market in Asia were 779-781 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 804-806 US dollars/ton CFR China, a decrease of 25 US dollars/ton compared to 829-831 US dollars/ton at the end of October.

Market forecast: In the near future, the toluene market will be less affected by crude oil and mainly affected by supply and demand. As the end of the year approaches, negotiations for a new long-term agreement in the market will begin. Currently, there is a strong supply-demand game mentality, and downstream shipments are actively being made. Overall, there is still support on the demand side. It is expected that the toluene market will remain stable in the short term, with slight fluctuations being the main trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate fluctuated weakly in early December. As of December 3, the domestic price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 78400 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.08% from the same period last month at 76800 yuan/ton; The domestic price of battery grade lithium carbonate is 81000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.02% compared to the same period last month at 79400 yuan/ton.

The supply side production continues to recover. Due to a slight rebound in lithium carbonate prices during November, companies have good profits from lithium carbonate after hedging, and manufacturers have begun to release production.

The demand side is seasonally weak, with demand exceeding expectations from the end of October to November. December is the traditional off-season, but due to local subsidies for new energy vehicles and policies such as trade in, orders from car companies are expected to smooth out and there will be no cliff like decline in production scheduling.

The pace of destocking has slowed down, with spot inventory of 108300 tons this week, including 33900 tons of smelter inventory, 29300 tons of downstream inventory, and 45100 tons of other inventory. The destocking pace has slowed down, and the destocking process is mainly concentrated in traders. At the end of the year, there is a demand for capital recovery, and most traders choose to reduce inventory and sell spot goods at discounted prices starting from the end of the year.

Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that it is expected that the supply will be strong and demand weak in December, and the domestic lithium carbonate market will still mainly operate in a range of fluctuations, making it difficult to have breakthrough performance. Specific market information still needs to be monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has mainly fluctuated within a range since November. As of November 29th, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 17027 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.02% from 16855 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The high point during the cycle was 17221 yuan/ton, and the low point was 16535 yuan/ton.

The weather in the main production areas of natural rubber continued to improve in early November, and the supply of raw materials from domestic and foreign production areas gradually increased. The price of natural rubber raw materials fell, and the heavy rain in Thailand at the end of the month affected the rubber cutting process. The international price of natural rubber raw materials has rebounded. As of November 29th, the price of Thai glue was 69.00 Thai baht/kg, fluctuating within the month range; The purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production areas in China is 17300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.35% from 17900 yuan/ton at the end of October.

The slight increase in natural rubber inventory in November has a bearish impact on the natural rubber market. As of November 24, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 423500 tons, an increase of 15300 tons from the end of October.

Since November, downstream tire production has remained stable with slight fluctuations, and demand is facing the urgent support of the natural rubber market. As of November 29th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.9%.

Market forecast: Currently, the main focus is on consolidating the range of domestic and international raw material supply improvement; Under the policy of promoting consumption, all tire enterprises are operating steadily, which provides certain support for natural rubber; But the slight increase in Tianjian inventory has brought certain pressure to the market mentality. Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will experience range fluctuations in the short term, with upstream and downstream games being the main focus.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 28th, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 1981 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.74% from the reference average price of 2195 yuan/ton on November 1st.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

This month, the domestic urea market prices have weakened and fallen. In the first half of this month, domestic urea prices slightly adjusted. The supply of urea in the market has decreased, and some enterprises have undergone equipment maintenance, resulting in a large number of pending orders. In mid month, the domestic urea market prices fell. The market has strong supply and weak demand, and the supply of urea in the market has increased. Downstream purchases are mainly for essential needs, and procurement is relatively cautious, resulting in a decrease in new order volume in the market. At the end of this month, domestic urea prices were narrowly adjusted, and market trading remained stable. As of November 28th, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1780-1810 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1820-1840 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1800 yuan/ton, and in Liaoning region it is around 1900 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly K-bar chart from September 2, 2024 to November 18, 2024, it can be seen that the domestic urea cycle is characterized by ups and downs. The largest decline in November was -0.23% during the week of November 11th,

Supply and demand situation

In terms of supply, the urea market has ample supply this month. In terms of demand, agricultural demand maintains essential procurement, market trading is average, and transactions are limited. At present, the supply and demand are relatively balanced.

3、 Future forecast

The urea analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the urea market has been slightly consolidating and operating recently. At present, there is no positive news in the market, and there is no significant fluctuation in the market. Terminal demand needs to be released. It is expected that the domestic urea market will mainly experience price consolidation in the short term.

The market price of epichlorohydrin continues to rise this month. The market in Shandong has increased by over 500 yuan/ton, with prices reaching around 9000 yuan/ton. The main reason is the limited availability of spot goods in the market and tight supply. After the price increase, low-priced spot goods are difficult to find, and there has been a decrease in trading orders in the market, with a focus on purchasing small orders for essential needs. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of November 27th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epichlorohydrin was 9062.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.07% compared to the beginning of this month (8625 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors: The price of liquid chloropropene on the raw material side fluctuates. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 27th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6825.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.59% compared to the beginning of this month (6785.75 yuan/ton).

Equipment situation: In early October, the 130000 tons/year propylene method epoxy chloropropane unit of the leading enterprise of epoxy chloropropane was shut down for maintenance. Other manufacturers’ devices are expected to restart by the end of November and further follow-up is needed.

Downstream demand side: With the cold weather in December and the downstream entering the off-season, the demand for epichlorohydrin gradually decreases, and the purchasing sentiment is not positive. The main focus is on purchasing small orders for essential needs.

Market forecast: Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the prices of raw materials on the cost side have fluctuated, downstream demand sentiment is low, and there is a focus on first-time purchases. There is a lack of follow-up on new orders, so raw material purchases should be cautious. With the restart of equipment by major manufacturers, the tight supply situation in the market may be alleviated to some extent. Overall, there may be an increase in the situation of oversupply next month, and the market price of epichlorohydrin may experience a slight decline. More attention still needs to be paid to changes in market prices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of the 25th, the price of ethyl acetate was 5806.67 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 0.99% compared to the price of 5750.00 yuan/ton on November 18th. Due to the continuous rise in upstream market conditions, favorable cost support, and improved demand, the market sentiment is good, and the ethyl acetate market is running strongly.

This week, the domestic price trend of ethyl acetate is relatively strong and consolidating. At the beginning of the week, downstream follow-up was average, and the raw material market remained stable. Ethyl ester manufacturers slightly lowered their quotations to stimulate shipments. Later, with the continuous rise of upstream acetic acid prices and favorable cost support, ethyl ester prices also increased. At the same time, some on-site equipment loads were reduced, and market supply was reduced. The industry’s mentality was optimistic, and the ethyl acetate market remained strong.

Looking at the future market, there is currently little fluctuation in the ethyl acetate plant, with stable enterprise quotations and downstream purchases following up as needed. There is not much sales pressure on manufacturers, and the raw material market is relatively strong, providing good support for downstream. It is expected that the price of ethyl acetate will remain stable and wait for further developments in the upstream market and downstream follow-up.