1、 Price trend

Taking sulfuric acid based rutile type titanium dioxide, which has a large volume of sales in the domestic market, as an example, according to monitoring data from Business Society, the domestic titanium dioxide market declined in April. On April 1st, the average price of titanium dioxide was 17266.67 yuan/ton. On April 28th, the average price of titanium dioxide was 17133.33 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 0.77%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic titanium dioxide market price fell in April. In the first half of the year, the domestic titanium dioxide market prices remained stable, and the overall trading situation on the market was average. Traders were more flexible in their prices, and downstream customers were more cautious, with a focus on purchasing in demand. In mid month, the overall trading situation on the domestic exchange was slightly light, with limited new orders and a downward focus on trading on the exchange. In the second half of the year, new orders in the domestic market were limited in trading, and there was a strong wait-and-see sentiment on the market, with cautious procurement. As of now, most domestic quotations for rutile type titanium dioxide are between 16700 and 18300 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 15500 yuan/ton.

According to customs data, the import volume of titanium dioxide in China in March 2024 was 10463.99 tons, an increase of 123.62% year-on-year and 45.06% month on month; In March, the import of titanium dioxide produced by sulfuric acid method reached 2391.07 tons, an increase of 81.76% compared to the previous month; In March, the import of chlorinated titanium dioxide reached 8072.92 tons, a month on month increase of 36.87%. From January to March 2024, China imported approximately 24300 tons of titanium dioxide, an increase of 84.65% compared to the same period last year, and the import volume increased by approximately 11100 tons.

In March 2024, China’s titanium dioxide exports reached 196100 tons, a month on month increase of 46.72% and a year-on-year increase of 29.61%; In March, the export of titanium dioxide produced by sulfuric acid method reached 151500 tons, an increase of 41.87% compared to the previous month; In March, the export of chlorinated titanium dioxide reached 44600 tons, a month on month increase of 65.96%. From January to March 20

24, China exported approximately 489500 tons of titanium dioxide, an increase of 11.98% year-on-year, and an increase of approximately 52400 tons in export volume.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the market price of titanium concentrate in the Panxi region remained stable, moderate, and weak in April. The manufacturer’s prices are mainly stable, while traders have more flexible prices. At present, there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, and there is significant cost pressure in the downstream titanium dioxide market, so purchasing is cautious. As of now, the tax-free quotation for grade 38-42 titanium ore is around 1580-1600 yuan/ton, the tax-free quotation for grade 46 10 titanium concentrate is around 2300 yuan/ton, and the tax-free quotation for grade 47 20 titanium concentrate is around 2350-2480 yuan/ton. In the short term, the market price of titanium concentrate is mainly strong, and the actual transaction price is negotiable.

According to customs data, China imported 478900 tons of titanium ore in March 2024, an increase of 11.23% year-on-year and 22.87% month on month; From January to March 2024, China imported a total of approximately 1.1749 million tons of titanium ore, a year-on-year increase of 6.45%, and the import volume increased by approximately 71200 tons.

In March 2024, China exported 12055.07 tons of titanium ore, an increase of 882.48% year-on-year and 1170.92% month on month; From January to March 2024, China’s cumulative export of titanium ore was about 15038.81 tons, a year-on-year increase of 39.11%, and the export volume decreased by about 4228.01 tons.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market prices fell in April. According to data monitoring from Business Society, the average price of domestic sulfuric acid on April 1st was 328.75 yuan/ton, and on April 28th it was 277.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.59%. The downstream market is weak, with limited demand for sulfuric acid and significant pressure on manufacturers to ship, resulting in a decline in market prices.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society Titanium Dioxide Analyst believes that the titanium dioxide market has been weak this month, with stable and weak upstream titanium concentrate prices and a decline in sulfuric acid prices. The cost support for titanium dioxide is average. It is expected that the trend of titanium dioxide will be weak in the short term, depending on downstream market demand. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

Recently (4.17-4.25), the domestic ethyl acetate market has shown weak performance and prices have continued to decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of the 24th, the decline in ethyl acetate has been 0.68%, with a cumulative range of 30-100 yuan/ton. The main reason for the bearish performance of cost demand.

Market analysis: Since April 17th, the supply and demand of ethyl acetate market has been continuously weak. The high utilization rate of production capacity on the supply side has put pressure on supplier shipments, and the bidding prices of Shandong’s main factories have been lowered, suppressing market confidence; In terms of demand, terminal consumption is slow, downstream purchases are followed up on demand, and the demand side continues to be bearish. On the raw material side, the price of acetic acid is relatively weak and the cost support is weakened, which may continue to be transmitted to the terminal in the later stage, affecting the downstream trend of ethyl ester.

In the future, with weak supply and demand of ethyl acetate and difficulty in improving short-term fundamentals, it is expected that the ethyl acetate market will maintain a weak consolidation in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the price execution of raw material acetic acid and ethyl acetate manufacturers. At present, the mainstream transaction price in the market is between 6200-6450 yuan/ton.

This week, the maintenance of some domestic acrylic ester factories has been completed, and the capacity utilization rate has slightly increased. Its supply has also resumed, but the demand recovery is less than expected, and the acrylic ester market is operating steadily. As of April 24th, the benchmark price of butyl acrylate for Shengyishe is 9500.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price.

This week, the benchmark price of ethyl acrylate for Business Society is 9375.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week; The benchmark price of isooctyl acrylate is 12625.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week.

From the perspective of raw materials in the industrial chain;

The price of acrylic acid has remained stable this week. On April 24th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyishe was 6825.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price.

The price of raw material propylene has been on a downward trend. As of April 24th, the benchmark price of propylene for Shengyishe was 6820.60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.21% compared to last week’s (6906 yuan/ton).

This week, the domestic ethanol market continued to show an upward trend, with an increase in market price increases. As of April 24th, the benchmark price of ethanol for Shengyishe was 6000.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.62% compared to the beginning of this month (5962.00 yuan/ton).

This week, n-butanol rose first and then fell, with costs maintaining a range of operations. As of April 24th, the benchmark price of n-butanol in Shengyishe was 7883.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.22% compared to last week (7900.00 yuan/ton).

This week, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and increased. As of April 24th, the benchmark price of isooctanol in Shengyishe was 9760.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.42% compared to last week (9620.00 yuan/ton).

The prices of alcohols in the market have fluctuated this week, providing moderate support for the acrylic ester market.

From the perspective of downstream products in the industrial chain;

The trading rate of adhesive tape master rolls in the market has slowed down compared to the previous period, and there has been a decrease in procurement in recent times. Some orders are now being accepted and processed. The order volume of tape master roll enterprises has declined, and the market performance is slightly lackluster. Tape master roll enterprises have accumulated inventory, which is sufficient and has a certain negative effect on prices.

The acrylic acid lotion market is facing a situation of insufficient demand for goods and continuous tightening of profit margin. The market continues to be stable for the time being. The industry lacks confidence in the future market. The downstream is obviously wait-and-see, cautious in entering the market, and the atmosphere of trading and investment in the market is light. It is expected that this situation will continue next week, and the market improvement will be limited.

Overall:

At present, the acrylic ester market is mainly affected by raw materials and downstream demand. Analysts from Business Society predict that the acrylic ester market will continue to be dominated by supply and demand in the short term, and the price fluctuation space may be limited.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of styrene in Shandong was 9550 yuan/ton on April 16th, and 9690.00 yuan/ton on April 23rd, an increase of 1.47%. The current price has increased by 15.24% year-on-year.

styrene

The market price of styrene continued to rise this week. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has continued to rise in the past three months, and the recent market trend has been good. The pure benzene market is strong at a high level, with good cost support, domestic supply, and a decrease in mainstream warehouse inventory. Downstream terminal demand is mainly in demand, and the styrene market continues to rise.

Cost side

Recently, the overall increase in pure benzene in China has been good. The price difference between Shandong and East China is still relatively wide, with some sources of goods heading south for arbitrage. The demand side in the East China market is actively stocking up, and spot traders are buying up and entering the market. Most refineries in Shandong continue to raise their prices. After the price increase, market buying continued and transactions were better.

Supply side

In April, there were many inspections of the styrene unit. On the 18th, Shandong Lihuayi’s 80000 ton/year styrene unit produced 160 tons per day, and a new 720000 ton/year unit was shut down for maintenance. Styrene inventory remained low, and domestic supply remained at a relatively low level, which was beneficial for the styrene market.

Demand side

Recently, all three downstream markets of styrene have risen. The PS market has seen a slight increase, driven by the demand for home appliance packaging. The fast material circulation speed in East and South China has accelerated, and the overall transaction atmosphere has accelerated. The market is expected to rise. Recently, the domestic ABS market has seen a high rise. The domestic ABS industry has taken on the pattern of load reduction and adjustment in the early stage, with an average weekly operating rate of around 56%. Although there has been a resumption of work in Dagu, Tianjin recently, there will be varying degrees of load reduction in Haijiang, Shandong, and Lihuayi in the future, and the supply of goods on site will still be reduced. The supply side has strong support for ABS spot goods. EPS is supported by the cost side, and the terminal air conditioning industry is entering a peak season. EPS is rising in the market under dual positive conditions.

Technical analysis

There is a high possibility of an increase in the future market of styrene, and spot prices may continue to rise. According to the prediction model of the Business Society Commodity Analysis System, since December 17, 2023, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started an upward trend. Currently, the two moving averages continue to rise in the same direction. On April 21, 2024, it is estimated that the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. a 7-day moving average crossing the 30 day moving average) occurring within the next 7 days is 38.11%.

Historical price monitoring [low to medium]: Since the beginning of 2024, the price of styrene has been continuously in an upward trend. The current monitoring positions are 1-year high, 2-year medium high, and 3-year medium high. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of styrene in the past three years is 8577.09 yuan/ton, with a median value of 8465 yuan/ton, a minimum value of 7163.33 yuan/ton, and a maximum value of 9766.67 yuan/ton. The low price difference (compared to the lowest price difference in the past three years) is 2526.67 yuan/ton, and the top price difference (compared to the highest price difference in the past three years) is -76.67 yuan/ton.

According to the styrene data analyst from Business Society, the recent decline in crude oil prices has led to poor cost support, and some of the previously repaired styrene units have restarted. There is an expectation of an increase in domestic styrene industry production, while analysts from Business Society predict a slight decline in the styrene market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic price of chloroacetic acid has decreased this month. As of April 22, the price of chloroacetic acid was 3175 yuan/ton, and on April 1, the price of chloroacetic acid was 3200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.77%.

Upstream aspect:

Upstream acetic acid: In April, the acetic acid market continued to be strong. In the early stage, the failure and shutdown of the Jiangsu Sopu unit, as well as the decrease in the load of the Tianjing unit, led to a significant decrease in the utilization rate of on-site production capacity, a decrease in manufacturer inventory, and a sustained increase in the strong acetic acid quotation. As downstream restocking continues, the demand for purchasing in the market gradually stabilizes, and the trading atmosphere in the market weakens. The acetic acid price runs steadily, and the overall on-site market is on the high side of observation.

Upstream liquid chlorine: The liquid chlorine market continued to decline in April. The market supply and demand in central China are running steadily, and some chlor alkali enterprises in Dongying have stopped exporting liquid chlorine. However, the demand side has poor purchasing sentiment, and prices continue to decline.

Downstream aspect:

In April, the price of indigo dye remained stable, and external demand in the clothing market was better than domestic demand. The operating rate remained above 90%. However, there was significant pressure from the domestic demand market, and dye enterprises actively reduced their inventory.

Business Society Chloroacetic Acid Analyst believes that in the cost composition of chloroacetic acid, liquid chlorine is not suitable for storage and transportation, which has a significant impact on the cost price of chloroacetic acid. In the future, attention should also be paid to the trend of liquid chlorine and downstream demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic PTA spot market showed a trend of first rising and then falling this week (April 15-19). As of April 19, the average market price in East China was 5948 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.18% compared to the beginning of the week.

This week was mainly affected by cost factors. In the early stage, the geopolitical situation was tense, and European and American crude oil futures rose to a new six month high. In addition, multiple sets of PX devices were shut down unexpectedly, and the cost side trend was strong, pushing up the PTA market. However, as the geopolitical situation eased, crude oil prices fell. At the same time, PTA devices restarted, and new production capacity produced qualified products, making PTA supply sufficient, and PTA spot prices fell.

Looking at the future market, the current environment for crude oil is relatively complex, and the performance of oil prices is also relatively stagnant and anxious. As of April 18th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was reported at $82.10 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was reported at $87.11 per barrel. Macro and demand are suppressing oil prices in the short term, and the space for further upward movement of oil prices is being suppressed. In addition, given that the current geopolitical tensions have not escalated, crude oil has the potential to mitigate risk premiums and reshape valuation expectations. But the risk has not been lifted, coupled with the start of the North American driving season, gasoline demand is expected to rise, which will provide support for oil prices. Overall, the supply and demand game in the oil market will intensify in the short term, and there is a greater possibility of oil prices maintaining high volatility.

There are still some maintenance plans for PX devices in Asia, but Zhejiang Petrochemical and Hengli Petrochemical, with a total of 4.5 million tons of devices, will resume operation. Therefore, the overall supply of PX is gradually recovering, and the demand side is performing well due to the expected restart and load increase of PTA factories. It is necessary to be cautious of the announcement of subsequent maintenance arrangements for some PTA factories. The high inventory situation of domestic PX continues, and prices are expected to fall and consolidate.

PTA’s own supply will also increase. Jiatong Energy may restart a 2.5 million ton PTA unit on April 23, while Yisheng Dalian’s 2.25 million ton PTA unit is currently operating at around 80%, with plans to increase load starting next week. In addition, there are currently no other planned large-scale PTA device maintenance or restarts, and attention still needs to be paid to unplanned maintenance.

At present, the operating load of the downstream polyester industry is stable around 90%, and the order performance is average. Some weaving and texturing factories may purchase goods appropriately, but their willingness to accept high priced raw materials is low, and they still have a wait-and-see attitude. The polyester filament factory has a strong Poly Run mentality, with a weak trading atmosphere and a stable to weak market transaction focus. Cotton mills still have a strong demand for polyester staple fibers, but weak terminal demand is dragging down market sentiment, with small purchases being the main focus.

Business Society analysts believe that the focus of cost support is weakening, high PTA inventory makes spot supply sufficient, and downstream demand is average. Therefore, in the short term, PTA fundamentals are difficult to be optimistic, and prices may continue to adjust weakly.

Recently, the market price of isooctyl acrylate has fluctuated and declined. As of April 17th, the benchmark price of isooctyl acrylate in Shengyishe was 12625.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -3.81% compared to the beginning of this month (13125.00 yuan/ton). This week, the average ex factory price in East China is around 12500 yuan/ton, in North China it is around 12600 yuan/ton, and in South China it is around 12700 yuan/ton.

Cost side:

Recently, the price of isooctanol has fallen and stabilized. As of April 16th, the quoted price of isooctanol was 9620 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.48% compared to the fluctuation of isooctanol price of 9480 yuan/ton on April 7th; Compared to April 1st, the price of isooctanol at 10060 yuan/ton fluctuated and decreased by 4.37%. After a sharp drop in April, the price of isooctanol stabilized at a low level, and there was a rebound trend in the price of isooctanol after the Qingming Festival. In late March, the market price of isooctanol plummeted sharply, with the lowest transaction center in East China dropping to 9195 yuan/ton. After the price fell to a low level, the enthusiasm for buying and replenishing increased. At the end of the month, the market ended with a oversold rebound, but there was a lack of obvious positive news to boost confidence in the market. After the market rebounded, the sustainability of high price transactions was not strong.

Supply and demand side:

At present, the production capacity utilization rate of acrylic acid isooctyl ester enterprises remains low, the on-site spot supply has decreased, and the pressure on enterprise shipments is relatively small; From a demand perspective, there has been an increase in downstream terminal demand, with actual orders mainly negotiated.

Overall:

It is expected that the market for isooctyl acrylate will stabilize next week, and some manufacturers are still in the equipment maintenance season. The impact of raw materials on isooctyl acrylate will strengthen, and downstream weak demand may deepen. Meanwhile, the inventory of isooctyl acrylate enterprises is relatively low, and the quotation may remain high, indicating a stable overall market operation.

This week, domestic butyl acrylate is currently in a stable and upward trend. As of April 16th, the benchmark price of butyl acrylate in Shengyishe was 9500.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.21% compared to last week (9480.00 yuan/ton). The average price in the East China market is 9500 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price in the North China market is 9600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price in the South China market is 9500 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous working day.

From a demand side perspective:

The delivery pressure of acrylic lotion enterprises is low, and the atmosphere in the field is mainly wait-and-see. 4 Acrylic lotion started or increased by a narrow margin compared with 3. The price of raw material MMA was high and firm, but the infrastructure construction of the terminal market was insufficient. The terminal coating factory was in the off-season, and the support for the demand of lotion was insufficient. The demand for the emulsion remained just in demand. Although the weather turned warmer, the market was generally boosted.

From a supply perspective:

At present, the production capacity utilization rate of domestic butyl acrylate enterprises has decreased, and the on-site supply of goods is tight. The pressure on enterprise shipments is relatively small, and the overall market fundamentals have performed well; The maintenance of main factory equipment has led to a tightening of the overall supply and demand pattern in the market, supporting a rise in prices. Shandong region: At the end of March, some facilities resumed operation, but enterprises mainly executed pre orders in the early stage, with tight spot prices and no pressure on the supply side to raise prices.

Overall:

The rise of butyl acrylate this week is mainly supported by favorable factors such as supply side maintenance and tight spot prices. Analysts from Business Society predict that some facilities will resume work near the end of the month, with a significant increase in on-site supply and difficulty in improving the downstream market atmosphere. The subsequent rise in butyl acrylate may be difficult to maintain.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the CPP market prices have remained stable with some increases this week. As of April 15th, domestic producers and traders have reached 25% μ The mainstream quoted price for m’s CPP film is around 10191.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 0.58% from last week’s average price.

quotations analysis

In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of raw material PP has fluctuated and increased this month. The mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7814.29 yuan/ton, which is 0.92% higher than the beginning of this month (7742.86 yuan/ton).

The price of raw material PP first decreases and then increases, and the raw material is operating stronger, with increased cost support. Film companies have low interest rates, and there is not much room for negative profit margins. The operating load rate is at a normal level and the supply is stable.

In terms of demand: Enterprise demand is in the off-season, and downstream enterprises just need to restock. Weak demand.

Future Market Forecast

Negative and bullish are intertwined, and it is expected that CPP prices will weaken and consolidate in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the auction price of crude benzene increased during the period from April 7th to April 12th, 2024, with a price increase of 7308.75 yuan/ton last week and 7488.75 yuan/ton this week, up 2.46%.

In terms of crude oil: Although US crude oil inventories have increased and the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts, concerns about the Middle East situation have not dissipated, and international oil prices have rebounded after falling. On April 11th, international crude oil futures closed lower. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $85.02 per barrel, a decrease of $1.19 or 1.7%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $89.74 per barrel, a decrease of $0.74 or 0.8%.

On April 7, 2024, Sinopec’s listed price for pure benzene was increased by 150 yuan/ton, with a current implementation of 8800 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 8680 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 8800 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 8493 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 8680 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 8800 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly decreased this week. On April 8th, the price of pure benzene was 8723 yuan/ton, and on Friday (April 12th), the price of pure benzene was 8712 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.02% from last week and 16.54% from the same period last year..

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

In terms of the industrial chain, this week’s geopolitical warming has driven up crude oil prices. After the holiday, the pure benzene market followed suit, while the hydrogenated benzene market briefly followed suit. In the later part of the week, crude oil prices declined, and with news of maintenance of downstream devices within the week, the market is expected to have weak demand in the future. The hydrogenated benzene market has given up its gains, and the ex factory price has retreated to pre holiday levels. Currently, most of them remain at 8600 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply, the eighth round of increase in the coke market has quickly landed, with a cumulative decrease of 800-880 yuan/ton. Affected by the profits of coke enterprises, the current production restriction is still relatively high, and the operating rate of coking enterprises continues to decline, currently around 60%. Most coke enterprises still suffer losses. Due to the weak overall demand in the coal, coke, and steel industry chain, coke enterprises have low expectations for production increase in the short term, and will maintain a low operating rate in the near future. The overall supply of crude benzene is tight. In terms of demand, downstream hydrogenation benzene enterprises are still able to start construction this week, and crude benzene will be replenished as needed. Under the boost of tight supply, the auction price of crude benzene continued to rise this week, with a price increase of 130-200 yuan/ton in the Shanxi region of 7300-7380 yuan/ton. Shandong region implemented a price of 7550 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton compared to the previous auction round. In the future, as the May Day holiday approaches, there is a demand for stocking in the downstream market. The supply of crude benzene is tight, and it is expected that there will still be a slight upward trend in the crude benzene market in the near future, boosted by favorable supply and demand.