Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 15th, the average market price of phenylenediamine was 38600 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from last week.

In terms of cost

Pure benzene: The domestic price of pure benzene has slightly decreased this week. On May 15th, the price of pure benzene was 8742 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.18% from last week. Shandong Refinery’s offer was strong, but buyer intention fell, prices fell, and transaction volume decreased. After the holiday, the rebound of crude oil was not significant. Overall, the trend of the crude oil market declined during the cycle, and the market was relatively weak due to the influence of crude oil.

Nitric acid: The domestic price of nitric acid has slightly increased this week. On May 15th, the price of nitric acid was 1913 yuan/ton, and on May 8th, it was 1876 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.97% compared to last week. The supply side of the concentrated nitric acid market is supported, with a slight increase in cost trends. The market mainly focuses on orders, and the market transaction situation has improved.

Overall, due to the impact of costs, the phenylenediamine market has fluctuated and reorganized, while the downstream epoxy resin market is operating lightly and lacks guidance from the news side. The market orders for dispersed dyes and reactive dyes have decreased, and the overall situation is not optimistic. Some manufacturers may have plans to reduce their burden. It is expected that the market for meta phenylenediamine will show a weak trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 15, 2024, the reference price for domestic butanone market was 8816 yuan/ton. Compared with May 1, 2024 (reference price for butanone was 8466 yuan/ton), the price increased by 350 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.13%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, it can be seen that in early May, the domestic butanone market as a whole showed a steady upward trend. Before Labor Day, the butanone market tended to operate in a more organized manner, but after the holiday, the market’s focus continued to shift upwards. As of May 15th, the domestic market price of butanone is based on around 8700-9000 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Factors Influencing the Market of Butanone

In terms of demand: In early May, the downstream demand for butanone remained stable and improved overall. The weather further warmed up, and the terminal market for butanone continued to recover. The enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials increased, and the smooth transmission of demand supported the butanone market to gradually move towards a high level.

In terms of demand: As summer enters, the recovery of the butanone terminal market is boosting, and the replenishment rhythm of downstream users is improving. Coupled with the export of butanone, the overall internal and external demand of the butanone market is performing well, and the demand side provides favorable support to the market.

In terms of cost: After the holiday, some butanone factories have delivered early export orders, and the overall supply side pressure is relatively low. With no pressure on production and sales, the focus of negotiations in the butanone market is constantly moving towards higher levels.

In terms of upstream liquefied gas: In early May, the market price of liquefied gas in Shandong Province first rose and then fell, showing an overall upward trend. On May 14th, the reference price of liquefied gas was 5124 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.43% compared to May 1st (5052 yuan/ton).

Market analysis of butanone

At present, the trading atmosphere on the butanone exchange is mild, and the mentality of the operators is good. However, in the past two days, there has been a loosening of the carbon four market after cost ether, which may have a certain impact on the butanone market. The butanone data analyst of Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic butanone market will mostly operate with large stability and small fluctuations, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand news.

According to the business commodity market analysis system, as of May 13, 2024, the factory price reference for domestic industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was 4166 yuan/ton. Compared with May 1 (reference price reference for dimethyl carbonate was 4133 yuan/ton), the price increased by 33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.81%. Compared to April 1st (with a reference price of 4000 yuan/ton for dimethyl carbonate), the price has increased by 166 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.17%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, it can be seen that in April, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market and overall showed an upward trend. After entering May, the overall performance of the dimethyl carbonate market has been stable and consolidating after a slight increase. At present, the trading atmosphere inside the dimethyl carbonate site is mild, and the supply side of dimethyl carbonate is relatively sufficient. Downstream users mainly purchase on demand, and the supply and demand transmission is still good. The mentality of the operators is good, and the dimethyl carbonate factories and supply side mainly maintain stable quotations. As of May 13th, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate is based on around 4000-4300 yuan/ton.

In terms of upstream epoxy propane: After the holiday, the overall epoxy propane market in Shandong region remained stable at a high level, with a reference price of 9225 yuan/ton on May 11th. The high and stable operation of epoxy propane has not reduced the cost pressure on the propylene glycol market, and the overall pressure on the propylene glycol market has declined during the week.

Continued upward momentum in the future market

After the holiday, the overall demand transmission of dimethyl carbonate downstream is still good, and the demand side supports the stable operation of the dimethyl carbonate market. According to the dimethyl carbonate data analyst from Business Society, in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market will mainly operate with large stability and small fluctuations, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from May 6th to 11th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price increased from 16866 yuan/ton to 17033 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.99% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 3.55%, and a year-on-year increase of 12.65%. The domestic aggregated MDI market prices are slowly moving upwards, with limited spot filling and low inventory. Under the premise of downstream demand follow-up, the market supply is tight, and prices are driving up.

On the supply side, the Shanghai BASF plant maintenance plan for mid May will last for about a month. North American Sci Tech device shutdown. The European Hungarian Borsod installation is beyond our control. The maintenance of the Dow device in Germany is expected to take around 45 days. North American BASF installation force majeure. The shrinking supply of production enterprises is influenced by favorable factors in the supply side.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The market price of pure benzene fluctuates narrowly, and the domestic supply of pure benzene has increased, but the demand for essential goods is stable. Shipping from the East China warehouse area is limited, and delivery is active, resulting in tight market supply and demand. As of May 11th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shengyishe is 8758.83 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: Currently, the domestic aniline market is weak and consolidating. As of May 11th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shengyishe is 11267.50 yuan/ton. The cost side of MDI aggregation is influenced by bearish factors.

On the demand side, the downstream foam adhesive market has been following up with increasing orders, while social inventory continues to remain low. Hard demand orders are slowly following up, but with the rise of aggregated MDI prices, some downstream orders are struggling to follow up, with small orders mainly following up slowly. The short-term aggregate MDI demand side is influenced by favorable factors.

In the future market forecast, the supplier controls the quantity of goods to be shipped, but the filling of goods is slow. The overall driving force still exists, and the downstream consumer market is still able to follow up, with strong consumption capacity. Business Society’s aggregated MDI analyst predicts that the domestic aggregated MDI market is mainly strong and following up.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China on May 9th was 5633 yuan/ton, which is 0.59% lower than the average price of 5666 yuan/ton on May 5th.

2、 Market analysis

After the holiday, the market price of chlorinated paraffin has fallen, and manufacturers are operating at low loads. After the holiday, the prices of raw materials such as liquid wax and liquid chlorine have decreased, leading to weakened cost support. Downstream rigid demand procurement, overall demand performance is insufficient, and market trading is limited. As of May 9th, the ex factory price of 52 environmentally friendly chlorinated paraffin in Anhui region is about 6000 yuan/ton, and the market price of 52 national standard chlorinated paraffin in Shandong region is about 5450-5600 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax continued to decline this week, with a downward trend as the main trend. Liquid wax fluctuated with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine was initially suppressed and then increased this week. Currently, there is resistance from downstream towards high prices, and negotiations on actual orders are the main focus.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Shengyishe Chlorinated Paraffin, the recent consolidation and operation of raw material prices have reduced the fluctuation in cost. The terminal demand for chlorinated paraffin needs to be improved, and the market is mainly bearish. It is expected that the short-term chlorinated paraffin market will be weak and consolidating.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of April 30, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 1042 yuan/ton. Compared with the reference price of 1062 yuan/ton on April 4 and 1, the price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.88%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, it can be seen that in April, the overall phosphorus ore market in China showed a weak downward trend, with a narrow downward trend in the focus of the phosphorus ore market. Although the “Golden Three Silver Four” has arrived, the phosphate ore market has not experienced a significant peak season effect. The downstream market demand for phosphate ore terminals is poor, and the terminal market is dragging down the phosphate ore market from bottom to top. The overall supply and demand transmission of phosphate ore is slow, and the overall trading atmosphere on the market is light. Starting from the beginning of the month, some regional mining enterprises have lowered the prices of mid to high-end grade phosphate ore, with a cumulative reduction of about 10-30 yuan/ton. As of April 30th, the domestic market price of 30 grade phosphate ore is based on around 1000-1100 yuan/ton. The specific price may vary depending on factors such as the original ore specifications and powder to block ratio, and the specific price needs to be negotiated based on actual orders.

Attached are the market prices of phosphate ore in some domestic regions (for reference only):

Product/ Region/ Taste/ Price/ Remarks/ Date

Phosphate ore/ Guizhou region/ 30 grade/ 1000-1100 yuan/ton/ Organize and run/ April 30th

Phosphate ore/ Guangxi region/ 30 grade/ 1030-1090 yuan/ton/ Organize and run/ April 30th

Phosphate ore/ Sichuan region/ 30 grade/ 1050-1080 yuan/ton/ Stable operation/ April 30th

Phosphate ore/ Yunnan region/ 30 grade/ 1050-1080 yuan/ton/ Stable operation/ April 30th

Phosphate ore/ Hubei region/ 30 grade/ 1070-1100 yuan/ton/ Stable operation/ April 30th

Future analysis

At present, the trading atmosphere inside the phosphate ore field is mild. At the end of the month, the downstream terminal market demand for phosphate ore has slightly rebounded, giving businesses some confidence. In some regions, phosphate ore shipments are still acceptable. According to the phosphate ore data analyst from Business Society, in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market will mainly operate with large and small fluctuations, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, the spot market price of PVC slightly increased in April. On April 1st, the average price of PVC in China was 5530 yuan/ton. On April 30th, the average price was 5556 yuan/ton, and the price increased by 0.47% within the month.

2、 Market analysis

The spot market price of PVC slightly increased in April. In the first half of this month, the spot market price of PVC slightly increased. But overall spot market transactions are average, and the enthusiasm for terminal order placement is average. In the middle of the month, the PVC spot market prices showed a slight fluctuation and upward trend, with many manufacturer quotes tending to stabilize. The trading atmosphere on the market was average, and dealer prices were relatively flexible. In the second half of the month, the market was mainly volatile and slightly downward. Downstream procurement is relatively cautious, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. The enthusiasm for stocking up before holidays is average, and the focus is still on basic needs. As of now, the quotation range for PVC 5 type carbide materials in China is mostly around 5320-5750 yuan/ton.

In terms of imports and exports, according to the latest customs statistics, in March 2024, China imported 27000 tons of pure PVC powder, an increase of 109.2% month on month and a decrease of 50.1% year on year; The export of PVC pure powder reached 297000 tons, an increase of 84.8% month on month and 38.3% year-on-year. From January to March 2024, China imported a total of 62000 tons of pure PVC powder, a year-on-year decrease of 59.5%; Accumulated exports of PVC pure powder amounted to 626000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.1%.

On April 29th, international crude oil futures closed lower. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $82.63 per barrel, a decrease of $1.22 or 1.5%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $87.20 per barrel, a decrease of $1.01 or 1.1%. The main reason is that the ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas have eased geopolitical tensions and lowered the risk premium.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region fell in April. On April 1st, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China increased from 3000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2883.33 yuan/ton on March 29th, a decrease of 3.89%. Overall, downstream procurement performance was average, and the process of removing calcium carbide inventory was slow. It is expected that in the short term, the price of calcium carbide in the market will temporarily remain stable, and costs may rebound after the holiday due to pressure.

On a macro level, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that from January to March, the national real estate development investment was 2208.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%. From January to March, the construction area of real estate development enterprises was 678.51 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.1%. The newly constructed area of housing is 172.83 million square meters, a decrease of 27.8%. The completed area of houses is 152.59 million square meters, a decrease of 20.7%.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society PVC analysts believe that PVC futures have completed the replacement of main contracts this month, and the trend of futures prices remains average, with no positive support from the spot market. Downstream demand is still dominated by rigid demand, and real estate data is still declining. It is expected that PVC spot prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term.

After the holiday, the price of isobutyraldehyde increased significantly

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of isobutyraldehyde has significantly increased after the holiday. As of May 6th, the domestic quotation for isobutyraldehyde was 7975 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.25% compared to the price of 7650 yuan/ton on May 1st.

The overall production of isobutyraldehyde in April has significantly decreased, but compared to downstream production, the decline in production is limited. The isobutyraldehyde factory has sufficient supply but insufficient demand. The prices of raw materials have stabilized strongly, and the support for raw materials still exists.

The price of raw material propylene fluctuates and consolidates

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 6th, the price of propylene was 6774.60 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.38% compared to the price of 6800.60 yuan/ton on May 1st. The prices of raw material crude oil have stabilized at a high level, while the support from the rise in propylene costs remains. The supply of propylene is sufficient, and downstream production has increased. After the holiday, propylene has stabilized at a high level.

Downstream demand support

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 6th, the price of new pentanediol was 9966.67 yuan/ton, which is strong and temporarily stable compared to the price of 9966.67 yuan/ton on May 1st. After the holiday, some new pentanediol companies have raised their prices, and downstream demand support still exists. The upward momentum of isobutyraldehyde has increased.

Market Overview and Forecast

Business Society’s isobutyraldehyde industry analyst believes that in terms of cost, the strong consolidation of raw material propylene prices still supports the rise in isobutyraldehyde costs; In terms of supply and demand, the production of isobutyraldehyde is stable, the supply of isobutyraldehyde is sufficient, and the production of new pentanediol enterprises is stable. The demand support for isobutyraldehyde still exists. In the future, due to limited cost support, supply and demand have increased, and isobutyraldehyde enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices. It is expected that isobutyraldehyde prices will consolidate strongly in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the market for polyaluminum chloride in April was volatile and downward. The solid (industrial grade, with a content of ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride market in China reported around 1793.75 yuan/ton on the 30th and 1806.25 yuan/ton on the 1st, a decrease of 0.69%. Water treatment enterprises in China’s main production areas are operating normally, with abundant market supply. Downstream procurement is based on demand, and the price of raw material hydrochloric acid is rising. The fuel market is also rising, and the cost of polyaluminum chloride is rising.

Raw material hydrochloric acid: In April, the domestic hydrochloric acid market showed strong performance, with manufacturers maintaining a low operating rate and low inventory. The manufacturer’s equipment remains stable, the price of acid production remains rigid and stable, and the sales are relatively active.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic liquefied natural gas market prices were relatively strong and increased in April. In early April, domestic demand for liquefied natural gas performed poorly, with the market mainly oversupplied and liquid prices slightly declining. During the Qingming Festival, hazardous chemical vehicles were restricted and transportation was not smooth. After the Qingming Festival, transportation resumed smoothly and market trading increased. Maintenance of some domestic liquid plants has led to a decrease in the supply of liquefied natural gas. In the context of tight supply, low liquid prices are starting to push upwards. Downstream restocking enthusiasm has increased, market demand has recovered, and the atmosphere of liquid factory adjustment is obvious. In mid April, due to the rise in import gas prices, domestic liquefied natural gas prices followed suit, stimulating an increase in domestic terminal prices, and both sea and land prices of liquefied natural gas rose. At the end of the month, the rise of domestic liquefied natural gas slowed down, and the market was mainly wait-and-see.

Market forecast: In April, the market for raw material hydrochloric acid and fuel liquefied natural gas will rise, while the cost of polyaluminum chloride will rise. On the supply side, Chinese polyaluminum chloride manufacturers are producing normally and have sufficient inventory; On the demand side, downstream procurement is on demand. At present, the domestic supply of polyaluminum chloride exceeds demand, and it is expected that the market for polyaluminum chloride will mainly consolidate after the holiday.

In April, the domestic glycerol market prices slightly decreased. According to the data monitoring system of Business Society, as of April 29th, the benchmark price of glycerol in Business Society was 4325.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.54% compared to the beginning of this month (4437.50 yuan/ton).

In early April, there was a significant increase in palm oil market prices, but towards the end of the month, there was a slight decline. The main Malaysian palm oil inventory is low, prices are strong, and the quoted prices have also been rising. So the cost of imported glycerol in China has increased, driving up futures prices. With the arrival of the Malaysian palm oil production season, the supply has gradually increased, and the raw palm oil market has declined. In addition, the limited number of foreign markets, weak domestic demand, and weak downstream procurement atmosphere have led to a slight decline in glycerol market prices under dual pressure. At present, the market trading volume is insufficient and orders are limited, with a focus on wait-and-see.

According to the monitoring of Business Society, on April 29th, the benchmark price of palm oil in Business Society was 8042.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.40% compared to the beginning of this month (8240.00 yuan/ton).

In terms of import and export: According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, the total import volume of glycerol in March 2024 was 72655.815 tons, an increase of 35.76% compared to the previous month; The total export volume of glycerol (glycerol) was 381.421 tons, an increase of 62.46% compared to the previous period.

Post forecast: According to the glycerol data analyst from Business Society, the raw palm oil market is showing a downward trend, with an increasing trend in inventory. Downstream demand is cold, and procurement is not active. As the May Day holiday approaches, it may continue to operate weakly. For more information, please pay attention to the dynamics of external quotation and market guidance.