Recent price trends of urea

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic urea market price has slightly decreased this week, with urea prices dropping from 2398.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2296.25 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 4.27%. Weekend prices fell by 28.26% year-on-year. On June 4th, the urea commodity index was 106.80, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 29.89% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 92.09% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Weak cost support, average downstream demand, and sufficient urea supply

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream prices of urea in China have fluctuated this week.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chains, it can be seen that the urea upstream market has slightly declined this week: the price of liquefied natural gas has slightly decreased, from 3820.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3674.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 3.82%, and the weekend price has decreased by 43.07% year-on-year; The price of anthracite has stabilized at a low level, with the price of Yangquan anthracite (washing medium block) at 1160 yuan/ton this weekend; The price of liquid ammonia slightly decreased, dropping from 2966.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2950.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.56%. The weekend price decreased by 43.88% year-on-year. Upstream raw material prices have slightly declined, weakening support for urea prices. The price of melamine downstream of urea slightly decreased this week, from 7325.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7125.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 2.73%.

From a demand perspective: Agricultural demand is average, while industrial demand is normal. In some southern regions, rice has started to prepare and use fertilizers, and agricultural demand is average. The operating rate of the compound fertilizer plant is acceptable, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is average. The board and melamine enterprises are operating normally, and the main focus is on purchasing just in need. From a supply perspective, the daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, indicating sufficient supply.

Small fluctuations and gains in the future market

The domestic urea market may fluctuate slightly in mid to late June. Business Society urea analysts believe that the upstream of urea has slightly declined, and the cost support for urea is average. But downstream agricultural demand has increased, and some northern regions have started to prepare and supplement fertilizers, while industrial demand is normal. The daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, with sufficient supply. In the future, urea may fluctuate and rise in a narrow range.

The price of plasticizer DOTP fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 2, the price of DOTP was 9602 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.31% compared to the price of 9931 yuan/ton on May 26. Raw material prices have fallen, costs have decreased, and the price of plasticizer DOTP has fluctuated and fallen this week.

The price of isooctanol has dropped significantly this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on June 2nd was 9080 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.30% compared to 9690 yuan/ton on May 26th. This week, the price of isooctanol has experienced a significant fluctuation and decline, with weak market trading performance. The pressure on the cost of plasticizer products has increased, and the price of plasticizer DOTP has fluctuated and fallen.

PTA prices fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, PTA prices have fluctuated and increased this week; As of June 2nd, the PTA price was 5670 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.41% compared to the PTA price of 5590.91 yuan/ton on May 26th. PTA device maintenance, PTA supply decline, traditional off-season in the terminal textile market, PTA demand decline, PTA supply and demand are weak, PTA prices fluctuate and rise, and there is insufficient support for PTA rise in the future.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that the price of isooctanol has significantly decreased this week, PTA prices have slightly increased, plasticizer product raw material prices have decreased, and DOTP costs have decreased. Overall, the supply of isooctanol and PTA is normal, the cost of plasticizer DOTP raw materials has decreased, and the demand for plasticizers remains weak. It is expected that plasticizer prices will fluctuate and fall in the future.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price trend of sulfur in East China in the second half of May first fell and then rose. On May 31, the average price of sulfur was 803.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.26% compared to the price of 793.33 yuan/ton on May 16, and an increase of 11.57% compared to the beginning of the month.

The sulfur market in the East China region has been sorted and operated, with average operation of on-site refining plants and rational market supply. The end market consumption is sluggish, and the enthusiasm for downstream entry is average. A small amount of goods are taken as needed to follow up, and there is no pressure on the inventory of manufacturers. In the early stage of negotiations for shipment, the focus of transactions is low. In the later stage, some enterprises have smooth shipments, and the sulfur price has risen, resulting in a weak overall market. As of the 31st, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in refineries in Shandong region is around 830-850 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur is between 730-830 yuan/ton.

Downstream market of the industrial chain

The downstream sulfuric acid market continues to decline, with the average domestic sulfuric acid price at 182.00 yuan/ton as of May 31st, a decrease of 5.21% compared to the price of 192.00 yuan/ton on May 16th. The sulfuric acid plant is operating normally, the market supply is stable, and downstream demand is sluggish. There are insufficient new orders in the market, resulting in a stalemate among the operators. In order to stimulate shipment, the sulfuric acid enterprise has lowered its quotation.

The market of monoammonium phosphate continued to decline. On May 31, 55% of the market average price of powdered monoammonium phosphate was 2687.50 yuan/ton, and on May 16, 55% of the market average price of powdered monoammonium phosphate was 2862.50 yuan/ton. The market price of monoammonium phosphate decreased by 6.11%. Downstream consumption is sluggish, market demand is weak, there is insufficient follow-up on new orders on the market, and sporadic purchases are mainly in demand. Operators have a pessimistic mentality, and the market price of ammonium chloride continues to decline.

Future Market Forecast

Business Society sulfur analysts believe that the domestic sulfur market has stable supply and insufficient demand support. Refineries are actively shipping, but market transactions are light, and there is a lack of effective benefits on the market. Under the supply and demand game, it is expected that the short-term sulfur market will consolidate and operate, with price or range fluctuations. Specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up situations.

Overview of the trend of magnesium metal in May

In May, domestic magnesium ingot prices increased first and then decreased. The daily average price of magnesium ingots fluctuates between 21500 and 28500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 25427.78 yuan/ton during the cycle, and the fluctuation of the commodity is 13.82%. At the beginning of the month, the magnesium ingot market experienced a rapid rebound in prices, stimulated by the news of the rectification of Fugu Lancan. As the supply side news continues to ferment, magnesium ingot manufacturers are selling at high prices, while some manufacturers are reluctant to sell and do not offer prices for the time being. With the gradual weakening of the impact of the Lancan news, buyers are gradually returning to rationality, and market transactions are showing a stalemate. Although magnesium factories have a willingness to stabilize prices, due to the weakening downstream demand, magnesium prices have been declining since the 12th.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 30th, the current exchange rate in the magnesium ingot market, including tax, was 23100 yuan/ton, an increase of about 200 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 25.48% compared to last year.

In terms of supply and demand

Under the influence of the policy of dismantling the furnace for orchid charcoal, some factories in the main production area have gradually ceased production, and most manufacturers have a strong willingness to sell at high prices. However, the market price was not supported, the downstream demand was depressed, the wait-and-see atmosphere in overseas markets was also strong, and the order was placed cautiously, which led to the continuous decline of magnesium price. Many magnesium factories are forced to proactively lower prices and close deals.

Ferrosilicon fell by 5.32% in May

On May 30th, the quotation for ferrosilicon in Ningxia was between 7000 to 7100 yuan/ton, with an average market price of 7067.14 yuan/ton. In May, the enthusiasm for downstream procurement of ferrosilicon decreased, and the pressure on ferrosilicon shipment increased, resulting in a significant overall inventory accumulation. At present, the confidence of manufacturers is insufficient, and the start of construction remains low, with some manufacturers mainly delivering orders from low inventory operations. As of May 25th, the operating rate (capacity utilization rate) was 32.67% nationwide, an increase of 0.76% compared to the previous period; The daily average production is 13271 tons, an increase of 70 tons compared to the previous period.

The overall price of orchid charcoal in May was in a downward trend. Some enterprises have gradually stopped production and boilers, and the supply of blue charcoal in the market may narrow. However, the overall inventory of blue charcoal factories is high, and there is no significant change in the supply and demand situation.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the trend of the metal magnesium market in May was not good, mainly due to the impact of the Lancan rectification policy and market demand. Recently, the magnesium market has been mainly affected by weak downstream demand, with significant downward pressure on prices, making it difficult for magnesium prices to improve in the short term. But considering that many magnesium factories have already shut down and stopped production, it is expected that the factories will further reduce prices.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, nickel prices fell significantly in May, with nickel prices at 193350 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 174750 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The overall decline was 9.62%, a year-on-year decrease of 20.89%.

LME nickel inventory

According to LME inventory, LME nickel inventory continued to decline in May, at a historical low.

Macroscopically, the Bank of England announced a 25 basis point hike in its benchmark interest rate to 4.5%, and stated that further tightening of monetary policy is needed if there is more holding pressure on inflation. The total number of completed home sales in the United States in April was 4.28 million, a decrease of 3.4% month on month, lower than the expected -3.2% and -2.6%, the largest month on month decline in 11 years. The US debt ceiling negotiation was fruitless, and the economic outlook was worrying. On June 1, the US was forced to default because it would be unable to fulfill its payment promise, which made the global risk appetite panic. Federal Reserve officials are mixed and uncertain about whether to raise interest rates in June, conveying ambiguous signals.

In terms of supply: After the year, the domestic refined nickel production increased significantly, which greatly alleviated the shortage of pure nickel supply. At the same time, with the continuous release of new domestic refining nickel production capacity, the expectation of excessive supply of electrolytic nickel in the medium term also continues to suppress nickel prices. In terms of secondary nickel, Indonesia’s newly invested production capacity has been released, and nickel iron continues to flow back, thus impacting the domestic market. In April, the domestic electrolytic nickel production increased by 4.15% month on month to 17685 tons. It is expected that the electrolytic nickel production in May will be 18930 tons, an increase of 7.04% month on month.

In terms of demand: Nickel consumption is mainly concentrated in the fields of stainless steel, power batteries, and alloys. According to institutional research data, the total national stainless steel production in April was 2.7802 million tons, an increase of 1.81% compared to March and a decrease of 4.05% year-on-year. In May, stainless steel profits improved and it is expected that there will be a significant release of production capacity. In April, China’s production of ternary precursors was 53444 tons, a decrease of 1% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 1%; The production of ternary materials was 48562 tons, an increase of 8% month on month and 5% year-on-year. There is no sign of recovery in the demand for power terminals, coupled with a downward cycle in raw material prices, and downstream priority is given to clearing inventory. We hold a wait-and-see attitude towards purchasing precursors.

In summary, in May, the supply of pure nickel and nickel intermediate products continued to increase, and the nickel market had sufficient supply pressure. Weak consumption continued to affect, and nickel prices continued to decline. The current price level is comparable to the low level in the past two years, supported by low inventory. June is still a low demand season, and it is expected that the low volatility trend of nickel prices in June will be the main trend.

According to the market analysis system of the Business Society, in May, due to some manufacturers experiencing hydrogen peroxide malfunctions and tight supply, the hydrogen peroxide market experienced a significant increase of over 30%. However, it began to decline gradually in the middle of the month, and the market remained high, with an overall increase of over 13%. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 740 yuan/ton. On May 26th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 840 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.51%.

Lido Supports Continuous High Operation of Hydrogen Peroxide Market in May

During the May Day holiday, the supply of hydrogen peroxide in the market showed a tense situation. After the holiday, the prices quoted by hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have skyrocketed, with mainstream prices ranging from 950 to 1050 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 to 250 yuan/ton.

In the second week, the supply of hydrogen peroxide in the market was tight, with manufacturers mainly pushing prices. The hydrogen peroxide market continued to rise, with mainstream quotes exceeding 1000 yuan/ton and prices rising by 50 yuan/ton.

In mid May, the favorable factors after the holiday were digested, and the demand for hydrogen peroxide in the market weakened, leading to a decline in the hydrogen peroxide market. As of May 22nd, the prices quoted by hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have decreased, with mainstream prices ranging from 770-850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100-200 yuan/ton.

At the end of the month, the hydrogen peroxide market gradually stabilized, lasting around 800 yuan/ton, and the market continued to operate in a weak trend.

Li Bing, a chemical analyst at Business Society, believes that the bearish trend is dominant, and the hydrogen peroxide market in June is difficult to replicate the sharp rise in May, and may continue to be dominated by weak and downward trends.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 25th, the average price of industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises in China was 305000.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged compared to Monday’s price.

This week, the domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide market was operating smoothly. Recently, the upstream lithium carbonate price has fluctuated and reorganized, providing some support for the lithium hydroxide market. However, there has been no significant rebound in demand. Downstream procurement is cautious, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere is becoming stronger. The focus of negotiations in the lithium hydroxide market is stable.

Upstream lithium carbonate, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, on May 24th, the reference price for lithium carbonate industrial grade was 284000.00, an increase of 63.22% compared to May 1st (174000.00); On May 24th, the reference price for lithium carbonate battery grade was 306000.00, an increase of 53% compared to May 1st (200000.00).

According to lithium hydroxide analysts from Business Society, there is still cost support, but demand support is average. Operators are cautious and expect the domestic lithium hydroxide market to operate steadily in the short term. More attention should be paid to market news guidance.

Last week (May 15-21, 2023), the price of viscose staple fiber remained stable, and the overall performance was calm, and the market entered a wait-and-see period. Most of the factory’s early orders are mainly shipped, and there are sporadic negotiations for new orders that are just needed. The factory’s inventory is low, and some shipments are tight. The startup rate of the viscose staple fiber industry has slightly rebounded, with an overall industry load of about 74.8%, mainly due to the restart of Xinjiang Zhongtai equipment after maintenance. Downstream people’s cotton yarn is still lukewarm and not hot, and orders for just needs are mainly sold, with stable prices. The production of human cotton yarn has slightly declined, and by the end of this week, it is basically around 70%.

Viscose staple fiber price trend chart

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the center of gravity of viscose staple fiber prices has slightly shifted upwards. As of May 21, the factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber in China is 13360 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price.

In terms of cost: The production cost of viscose staple fibers has not changed much, and the cost support is limited. The price center of raw material dissolved pulp remains stable, with the domestic market mainly maintaining stability. Downstream procurement is based on demand, and businesses often execute early orders, with stable shipments being the main focus.

Downstream cotton yarn market

Human cotton yarn is relatively stable, with average transactions and prices basically maintained. However, some enterprises have experienced price reductions and promotions under inventory pressure. According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of May 21, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spinning, first-class product) was 17566 yuan/ton, and the price remained flat. The production of human cotton yarn has slightly decreased, and it is basically around 70% by the end of this week.

Future Market Forecast

At present, the performance of the viscose staple fiber market is calm, and enterprises are still mainly focused on executing orders, with firm quotations from enterprises. It is difficult for terminal demand to show significant improvement in the short term, with downstream procurement being the main focus. The market has once again entered a wait-and-see period of adjustment, focusing on downstream demand. Analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term market for viscose staple fibers and rayon yarn will remain stable.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of 55% of the domestic powdered monoammonium market was 2862 yuan/ton on May 12, and the average price of 55% of the domestic powdered monoammonium market was 2832 yuan/ton on May 19. The market price of monoammonium phosphate fell 1.05% this week.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of 64% of the domestic diammonium phosphate market was 3893 yuan/ton on May 12, and the average price of 64% of the domestic diammonium phosphate market was 3883 yuan/ton on May 19. The market price of diammonium phosphate fell 0.26% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of ammonium phosphate has dropped this week. The price of raw material phosphate rock is stable, while the price of raw material sulfur is rising, and cost support is still acceptable. Downstream demand is weak, with small purchases being the main focus. The market trading atmosphere is poor, with fewer new orders. As of May 19th, the market price for 55 powdered ammonium in Hubei region is around 2700 yuan/ton, the market price for 55 powdered ammonium in Sichuan region is around 2800-2980 yuan/ton, and the market price for 55 powdered ammonium in Henan region is around 2700 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The market price for 64% ammonium bicarbonate in Hubei region is around 3650 yuan/ton, the outbound price for 64% ammonium bicarbonate in Shandong region is around 4000 yuan/ton, and the outbound price for 57% ammonium bicarbonate in Shandong region is around 3300 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is negotiated.

In terms of raw material sulfur, the sulfur market in East China was relatively strong this week. At the beginning of the week, due to the maintenance of some refinery equipment, the supply of goods decreased, and manufacturers actively shipped. The market mentality was bullish, coupled with good upstream and downstream purchasing, sulfur prices continued to rise. Later on, downstream purchasing returned to rationality, and it was necessary to follow up on the market. Refineries mainly shipped at stable prices, while some enterprises had poor shipments. Sulfur prices were slightly reduced, and sulfur prices overall rose during the week.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore, the domestic phosphorus ore market remained stable and organized this week. At present, the overall operation of the downstream industry chain of phosphate rock is relatively weak, and the demand support provided by the downstream is limited. However, due to the continuous tight operation of the supply side in the phosphate rock field, and the low pressure on the supply side, the overall market can still operate stably.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from the Business Society believe that the market for ammonium phosphate has been poor recently, with demand continuing to be sluggish and the focus of transactions constantly declining. In the absence of improvement on the demand side, it is expected that the price of ammonium phosphate market will continue to decline in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the isopropanol market fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of isopropanol in China was 7190 yuan/ton, while the average price over the weekend was 7140 yuan/ton. During the week, the price decreased by 0.7%.

Figure: Comparison of price trends of 2-4 acetone and isopropanol

The domestic isopropanol market price fell this week. At present, the market situation is light, with upstream acetone prices falling and cost support average. The traders are not enthusiastic about taking the goods, and their confidence in the market price is weak. The lower reaches are more wait-and-see, and the actual orders are handled cautiously. As of now, the majority of quotations for isopropanol in the Shandong region are around 6700-7000 yuan/ton; The majority of prices for isopropanol in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 7200-7400 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, the acetone market has declined this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of acetone was 6493.75 yuan/ton. This weekend, the average price was 6317.5 yuan/ton, and the price was reduced by 2.71%., The purchasing enthusiasm of terminal factories is not high, and they just need to submit orders. Under the pressure of holders, there is a clear intention to sell at a profit, and market negotiations are lukewarm and slow, with limited transaction follow-up. Today, we are paying attention to the price adjustment trend of petrochemical enterprises, and it is expected that the short-term acetone market will be weak and difficult to adjust.

In terms of propylene, the propylene market rose first and then fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of propylene in Shandong was 6870.6 yuan/ton, while the average price over the weekend was 6933.25 yuan/ton. During the week, the price increased by 0.91%. The inventory of the manufacturer is controllable, and the overall market is average. We should wait and see, and focus on just demand.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Isopropanol analyst from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believes that the price of raw acetone has fluctuated and decreased, while the price of propylene has decreased. The support for raw materials is average, while downstream demand is tepid and tepid. Downstream and traders are cautious in purchasing and are more wait-and-see. It is expected that the isopropanol market will be weak in the short term and will continue to consolidate and operate.