According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 25th, the average price of high-quality rubber grade white carbon black in China was 6025.00 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of white carbon black remained stable, with a limited range of price fluctuations. Currently, the mainstream price is around 6000 yuan/ton.

This week, the market price of white carbon black has been stable, with the mainstream price of around 6000 yuan/ton. The focus of negotiations is stable, with downstream demand procurement being the main focus, and the enthusiasm for stocking is average. Manufacturers mainly offer discounts and take orders, but the number of new orders is limited.

Chemical Index: On July 24th, the chemical index stood at 828 points, an increase of 2 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 40.86% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 38.46% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Business Society’s white carbon black analyst believes that the stable operation of the white carbon black market is the main focus in the short term.

According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic carbon black market prices have been operating weakly this week, with a slight decline. On July 24th, the domestic carbon black N220 was quoted at 8666 yuan/ton, mainly due to a decline in raw material prices in the early stage, poor downstream shipments, weak demand side performance, and a gradual increase in bearish factors on the market.

Cost: In terms of raw materials, the market price of high-temperature Coal tar remained stable this week, and so far, the market price of Coal tar is 4062 yuan/ton. After the introduction of the consumption tax policy, there are few new products in the market, and the overall operation of coke enterprises is poor. It is expected that the Coal tar market will be consolidated and operated in the short term.

Supply and demand side: Most carbon black enterprises maintain normal operating levels, and the overall operation of the domestic carbon black market is stable, with sufficient supply in the carbon black market.

In terms of demand: The overall demand of downstream tire enterprises is weak, still in the traditional sales off-season. Recently, there has been insufficient construction and construction work, and domestic demand has further weakened. Enterprises mainly need to purchase just now, and terminal demand continues to be weak. The overall demand in the future is not very optimistic.

Overall, the cost side support has increased, inventory levels are not high, and there has been no significant improvement in the demand side. It is expected that the carbon black market will be reorganized and operated in the short term.

On the 21st, precious metals saw a slight decline from their high levels

Precious metal prices rose in July. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, on July 21, 2023, the price of gold in the Spot market will be 459.28 yuan/g, a daily drop of 0.44%; Compared with the price of 448.60 yuan/g in the Spot market of gold at the beginning of the month (July 1), it rose 2.38%.

Silver fell back to the beginning of the month

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average silver market price will be 5843.67 yuan/kg on July 21, 2023, a daily drop of 1.36%, up 7.57% from 5432.33 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month (July 1).

Summary of Price Trends of Precious Metals and Crude Oil

In the early stage, the correlation between precious metals and crude oil trends is strong. After the second half of 2022, precious metal prices have bottomed out and stabilized, and the magnitude of macro factors affecting them has begun to show differentiation. The trend of precious metals and crude oil began to converge in late March, but after mid April, the trend began to diverge again. Mainly due to the increased impact of risk aversion on the rise of precious metal prices. Recently, crude oil prices have rebounded, and precious metal prices have also followed suit.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in the past year

In 2022, the rise and fall trends of precious metal gold and silver have converged, but the decline in silver was deeper from April to August, and the recent recovery has been more significant. In December, silver continued its strong trend last month, and gold began to consolidate at high levels. In 2023, precious metal gold and silver have consolidated at high levels, with a slight decline in February. Since March, precious metal prices have started to rise. Silver prices began to decline in May, while gold remained relatively strong. In June, gold prices reached a high level and silver prices began to rise.

Policy Fundamentals Data

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the UK rose 7.9% year-on-year in June, lower than expected.

noble metal

At present, the price of precious metals has been fluctuating in the high range after hitting a 10-year high in the early stage. In the early stage, we expected that under the high inflation and high interest rate hikes, the pace of overseas economic recession may lead to a relatively strong sense of risk aversion, which is currently reflected in prices. Some central banks around the world increased their holdings of Gold reserve, which also formed some support for gold prices.

Silver rose significantly in July, and its price was overestimated by fundamentals, leading to profit taking in funds. In addition, with the July Fed meeting approaching, interest rate hikes are expected to be high, although it may be the last rate hike in the Fed’s most aggressive tightening rate hike cycle in 40 years. Interest rate hikes suppress precious metal prices. In the short term, precious metals have been volatile and bearish after recent highs; In the medium to long term, it remains bullish. Mainly due to the end of the tightening cycle, overall commodities may gradually improve, and silver commodities have a larger attribute and still have upward momentum.

Recent trends in sulfuric acid prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market price has slightly decreased this week, with sulfuric acid prices dropping from 178.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 174.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 2.25%. Weekend prices fell 80.49% year-on-year. On July 16th, the sulfuric acid commodity index stood at 27.08, unchanged from yesterday and reaching a historic low within the cycle, a decrease of 85.60% from the highest point of 188.07 on April 13, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream market slightly rises, while downstream procurement enthusiasm weakens

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have slightly decreased this week, with average inventory levels among manufacturers.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the upstream sulfur market has slightly increased, with sulfur prices rising from 753.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 770.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 2.21%, and a year-on-year decrease of 56.66% at the weekend. The upstream market has slightly increased, and cost support has increased. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market has stabilized at a low level, with a market price of 9585.71 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell 10.41% year-on-year. The downstream titanium dioxide market slightly declined, with market prices dropping from 15650.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 15516.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.85%. Weekend prices fell 18.33% year-on-year. The downstream market has slightly declined, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has weakened.

Small fluctuation and decline in the future market

In late July, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. Although the upstream sulfur market has slightly increased, cost support is good. However, the downstream titanium dioxide market has slightly declined, while the hydrofluoric acid market has stabilized at a low level. Downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid has weakened, and the product trend has declined due to supply-demand conflicts. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, and the sulfuric acid market price may fluctuate and decline slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of domestic liquid Caprolactam was 12037 yuan/ton on July 10, and the average price of domestic liquid Caprolactam was 12162 yuan/ton on July 14. The price of Caprolactam rose 1.04% this week.

2、 Market analysis

Caprolactam market prices rose this week. The price of raw material pure benzene rose, and cost support was strengthened. The spot price of Caprolactam rose with the cost. At present, the supply side is gradually increasing, and the downstream is mainly purchasing on demand. The Caprolactam market continues to be strong. As of July 14, the delivery price of Caprolactam liquid in East China of Shandong Hualu Hengsheng was 12400 yuan/ton. The settlement price of Sinopec high-end Caprolactam is 12550 yuan/ton, and the liquid is superior, which will be accepted and picked up in June.

The price of raw material pure benzene has slightly increased this week. On July 10th, the price of pure benzene was 6378 yuan/ton. On Friday (July 14th), the price of pure benzene was 6396 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.17% compared to last week and a decrease of 29.77% compared to the same period last year. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene remained stable at 6600 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Caprolactam analysts from the business community believe that the price of raw material pure benzene has continued to rise recently, and the cost side support is favorable. The market supply has not eased yet, and terminal demand is being followed up as needed. Under the favorable market factors, it is expected that the Caprolactam market will continue to rise strongly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the asphalt market has risen in a narrow range. From July 6th to 13th, the price of asphalt in Shandong region increased from 3752 yuan/ton to 3816 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.35%, a month on month increase of 1.69%, and a year-on-year decrease of 11.91%. Boosted by favorable factors such as the recent rise in crude oil prices, relatively low supply, and tight availability of resources, the domestic asphalt market price has slightly increased.

On the supply side, the comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has decreased compared to the previous month, and the supply side has a positive outlook.

On the cost side, US inflation data has fallen, core CPI growth is less than expected, and the market expects the Federal Reserve to slow down interest rate hikes, providing support for oil prices. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $75.75 per barrel, an increase of $0.92 or 1.2%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $80.11 per barrel, an increase of $0.71 or 0.9%. International crude oil futures continued to rise, and the domestic Petroleum industry chain was positively affected.

On the demand side, the demand for asphalt in the market is relatively flat, with varying demand in different regions. The rainfall in the northern region has increased, and some terminal construction has been hindered. The demand performance is average, and actual transactions are mostly low. The weather in the southern region has improved, and the market has just started to improve overall. The demand side of the asphalt market has a relatively stable impact.

As of the close of July 13th, the petroleum asphalt futures market has risen. The main asphalt contract 2310 was opened at 3750 yuan/ton, with a maximum price of 3766 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 3727 yuan/ton. It closed at 3757 yuan/ton, an increase of 18% or 0.48% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 196102 lots, the holding volume was 356308 lots, and the daily increase was 8161 lots.

According to future forecasts, the international crude oil market is experiencing high volatility, which provides strong support for refinery costs. Some refineries have reduced supply of maintenance goods, and the weather is improving. Demand is expected to further increase. Asphalt analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic asphalt market will be relatively strong in the short term, with consolidation being the main focus

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of the business agency, the price of Isobutyraldehyde in the domestic market rose slightly this week. This week, the average price of Isobutyraldehyde in the domestic mainstream market rose from 7033.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7166.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 1.90%. Weekend prices fell by 2.71% year-on-year. On July 10, the Isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 36.55, up 0.17 points from yesterday, down 65.38% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 (2021-09-16), and up 21.35% from the lowest point of 30.12 on October 7, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side, the quotation of Isobutyraldehyde mainstream manufacturers rose slightly this week, and the inventory was low.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of Isobutyraldehyde fell slightly this week, with the price falling from 6683.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6563.25 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 1.80%. Weekend prices fell by 12.03% year-on-year. The price of upstream raw material market fell slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. Affected by the supply and demand side, the price of Isobutyraldehyde was negatively affected. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of Neopentyl glycol fell slightly, from 9600.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9566.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a drop of 0.35%. Neopentyl glycol market declined slightly, and downstream demand was weak, which had a negative impact on Isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

In the middle and late July, Isobutyraldehyde market trend may fluctuate and fall mainly. The upstream propylene market declined slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. The downstream Neopentyl glycol market declined slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened. Isobutyraldehyde analysts from the business agency believe that the short-term Isobutyraldehyde market may suffer a slight shock and decline, mainly due to the impact of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects of the Isobutyraldehyde market.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of Chlorinated paraffins will rise first and then decline in the first half of 2023. On January 1, the average price of domestic Chlorinated paraffins 52 market was 5400 yuan/ton, and on June 30, the average price of domestic Chlorinated paraffins 52 market was 5283 yuan/ton. In the first half of the year, the price of Chlorinated paraffins fell 2.16%.

2、 Market analysis

According to the K column chart from January to June 2023, in the first half of the year, domestic Chlorinated paraffins rose and fell in the cycle. February saw a significant increase, with a maximum increase of 8.13%. April saw the largest decline, with a maximum decline of 3.49%.

In the first half of 2023, the domestic price of Chlorinated paraffins rose first and then fell. In the first quarter, the price of Chlorinated paraffins fluctuated and rose. The prices of raw material liquid wax and liquid chlorine have increased, and cost support has been strengthened. Under cost pressure, Chlorinated paraffins manufacturers raised prices. The market demand is stable, and the transaction focus has increased. In the second quarter, the price of Chlorinated paraffins fell sharply. The raw material prices have been lowered, resulting in insufficient cost support. Downstream demand is weak, procurement enthusiasm is poor, and market transactions are weak. As of June 30, the ex factory quotation of Chlorinated paraffins 52 in Anhui was about 5600 yuan/ton, and that of Chlorinated paraffins 52 in Shandong was about 5250 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts of Chlorinated paraffins from the business agency believe that the prices of raw liquid chlorine and liquid wax have continued to rise recently, cost support has been strengthened, and Chlorinated paraffins is running steadily and well. However, downstream procurement enthusiasm is average and transactions are relatively low. It is expected that the price of Chlorinated paraffins will rise steadily in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to the change of raw material price.

This week (July 3-7, 2023), a new round of prices for viscose staple fiber factories has been introduced, resulting in a decrease in prices. The new prices range from 12800 to 13200 yuan/ton, with some factories offering additional discounts and rebates, and downstream customers experiencing a new round of centralized order signing. The production cost has little change, the raw materials are maintained, the cost support is limited, the price center of raw material Dissolving pulp is stable, and the domestic market is basically stable; The price of imported Dissolving pulp was basically maintained. The demand for human cotton yarn has been delayed and weak, and prices have declined slightly. Due to the high temperature and high inventory, a few yarn factories are considering shutdown and vacation, and the focus of negotiations is gradually shifting downwards.

Viscose staple fiber price trend chart

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, new factory prices have been introduced this week (July 3-7, 2023), and the price center of viscose staple fibers has declined. As of July 7, the domestic factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fibers is 12960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 260 yuan/ton from last week’s price, a decrease of 1.97%.

Raw material market

Recently, the price center of raw material Dissolving pulp has weakened. Domestic Dissolving pulp: two manufacturers in Shandong and Hunan produce broad-leaved Dissolving pulp, and domestic Dissolving pulp is quoted at about 7100-7200 yuan/ton. Recently, the quotation of imported Dissolving pulp has remained stable, about 870 dollars/ton for broad-leaved Dissolving pulp and 880-890 dollars/ton for coniferous Dissolving pulp.

Downstream cotton yarn market

The demand for human cotton yarn has been delayed and weak, and prices have declined slightly. Due to the high temperature and high inventory, a few yarn factories are considering shutdown and vacation, and the focus of negotiations is gradually shifting downwards. As of July 7th, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first class) was 17300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to last week’s price. At present, it is difficult for the demand in the textile terminal market to significantly improve, and yarn enterprises are also difficult to have a strong position. They often adjust their negotiation space based on their own shipment situation.

Future Market Forecast

With the arrival of high temperatures in summer and the traditional off-season of textile production, the overall purchasing and sales atmosphere in the market is limited. With the introduction of a new round of prices in the market, short-term centralized order signing is the main focus, and the market will enter a wait-and-see adjustment period. Analysts from Business Society predict that the market for viscose staple fibers and rayon yarn will be weak and stable in the short term, with prices being mainly stable.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PP market fluctuated in June, with overall fluctuations in various wire drawing brands. As of June 30th, the mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7164.29 yuan/ton, with a+1.11% increase or decrease compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: On the upstream side, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market fell first and then rose in June, with a slight overall increase. In the first ten days, downstream buying was poor, and the price of propylene gradually fell to a low point. Downstream bargains entered the market, and the effect of enterprise destocking was significant. In the latter half of the year, procurement improved, while some propylene enterprises underwent temporary maintenance, resulting in a temporary decrease in market supply and a push up model for propylene. The current inventory in the propylene market is controllable, and demand changes are limited. It is expected to maintain a narrow consolidation operation in the short term.

Propylene prices rebounded after a drop, while international crude oil fluctuated frequently this month, with limited cost support for PP. In terms of industry load, the overall industry load remained between 70-80% this month, with construction approaching 79% at the end of the month, reaching an overall high level. The overall supply of goods remained stable. There is sufficient supply of goods on site. In terms of demand, it tends to be weak, with the main downstream plastic weaving production fluctuating from 40% to 50%. In terms of film materials, the operating rate of enterprises has increased to around 60% in the latter half of the year. Although there has been an increase, the overall position is not high, and the improvement of the stocking situation of terminal enterprises is limited, with procurement maintaining production as the main focus.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 30th, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has declined. The mainstream quoted price of domestic producers and traders for Z30S (fiber) is around 7137.50 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of -0.17% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of -17.17% compared to the same period last year. This month, the main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises of PP fiber material maintained a low horizontal load, with an overall operating rate of around 31%. The demand for fiber materials in the market is weak, and the digestion speed of non-woven fabric end products is average. Enterprises have low efforts to replenish fiber PP, resulting in narrow price fluctuations and adjustments. It is expected that in the short term, fiber materials may continue to undergo narrow adjustments due to supply-demand conflicts.

In terms of melt blown materials, the June melt blown PP market continued to be weak. As of June 30th, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society is about 7875 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the price has increased or decreased by -3.67%, with a year-on-year decrease of 17.97%. At present, there is little domestic news on health events, and local social news is powerless to drive the consumption of medical meltblown fabric materials. There is also no significant boost in overseas demand, with traders giving up profits and taking orders, resulting in excessive parking of melt blown material production lines. It is expected that the melt blown material market may maintain a weak consolidation market.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the rise in the polypropylene market in June was hindered. The raw material propylene market has stopped falling and rebounded, with frequent fluctuations in distant crude oil, and average support from the cost side for the market. The operating rate of terminal enterprises is poor, and the demand for goods tends to maintain production, resulting in weak demand release. The small number of market orders hinders the low level recovery of the market, and it is expected that the PP market may maintain a range consolidation market early next month.