Zinc prices fluctuate and rise this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 7th, the zinc price was 20962 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.04% compared to the fluctuating zinc price of 20542 yuan/ton on July 30th. The maintenance of zinc smelting enterprises has increased, the processing cost of zinc concentrate has increased, and the metal zinc market is positive. This week, zinc prices have fluctuated and increased.

Weakened Supply Expectation Meets Less Than Expected Demand

This week, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee has slightly increased, with Shaoguan region increasing by 100 yuan/metal ton to 5350 yuan/metal ton, Chenzhou region increasing by 100 yuan/metal ton to 5300 yuan/metal ton, Zhuzhou increasing by 300 yuan/metal ton to 5600 yuan/metal ton, Hechi region increasing by 300 yuan/metal ton to 5300 yuan/metal ton, and Kunming increasing by 100 yuan/metal ton to 5200 yuan/metal ton. In July 2023, China’s refined zinc production was 551100 tons, a decrease of 14000 tons or 0.26% compared to the previous month, a year-on-year increase of 15.79%, slightly exceeding the expected value. It is expected that the domestic refined zinc production will increase by 16000 tons month on month to 552700 tons in August 2023, a year-on-year increase of 19.43%. The maintenance of zinc smelting enterprises has increased, and the expected growth of refined zinc supply has weakened.

Affected by the rainstorm in the north, the construction of infrastructure and other related projects has been postponed, the orders of galvanized enterprises are weak, and the operating rate of enterprises is lower month on month. Die-casting enterprises are operating at a low level, while zinc oxide enterprises are also slightly lower in terms of production compared to the previous month. The production of galvanized steel plates in large domestic steel mills has increased month on month. Overall, domestic demand is relatively stable. However, due to the impact of rainstorm weather, the demand of zinc city is less than expected.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, there has been an increase in maintenance for zinc smelting enterprises, an increase in zinc concentrate processing fees, an expected decline in refined zinc production, and a weakening of zinc market supply; In terms of demand, due to the impact of typhoon weather, the demand growth in the zinc market is not as expected. In the future, both supply and demand in the zinc market have shown varying growth, but the growth has not been as expected. Zinc prices have fluctuated and risen, but their sustained support is limited. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate and consolidate at high levels in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of caustic soda has stabilized this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 737.4 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, the average market price in Shandong was 742 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.62% and a decrease of 31.3% compared to the same period last year. On August 3rd, the chlor alkali index was 981 points, an increase of 2 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 53.90% from the cycle’s highest point of 2128 points (2021-10-24), and an increase of 37.78% from the lowest point of 712 points on January 5th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall price of domestic caustic soda has stabilized and operated this week. The current average market price in Shandong region is around 690-750 yuan/ton. The mainstream factory quotation for 32% liquid alkali in Hebei region is around 690-900 yuan/ton. The overall price of caustic soda has not changed much this week, and the overall supply of manufacturers has not changed much. In terms of downstream alumina, the main downstream suppliers have lowered their procurement prices, resulting in average short-term demand and more on-demand procurement. The supply and demand game maintains a weak operating market for caustic soda prices.

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, in the 30th week of 2023 (7.24-7.28), there were a total of 3 products that rose, 3 products that fell, and 1 product that rose or fell to 0 on the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities that have increased include: light soda ash (2.00%), PVC (1.99%), and flake soda ash (1.17%); The main commodities falling include hydrochloric acid (-5.45%), baking soda (-0.39%), and caustic soda (-0.35%). This week’s average increase or decrease was -0.15%.

Analysts from Business Society believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has remained stable with minor fluctuations, and there is currently no positive support from the supply side. Downstream alumina still purchases more on demand in the near future. The mentality of the industry is average, and the supply and demand game is expected to consolidate the operating market in the later stage, depending on the downstream market demand.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the domestic PC market fluctuated and rose in July, with overall spot prices of various brands increasing. As of August 1st, the reference quotation for the PC sample enterprises of the Business Society was around 15616.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of+4.69% compared to early July.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: From the above figure, it can be seen that the market for bisphenol A increased last month. In July, the broad upward trend of raw materials drove the downstream bisphenol A market to continue to rise, with strong cost support and a rise in the main downstream products. The spot quantity of bisphenol A has decreased, and manufacturers are currently under no production and sales pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the recent transaction situation, and it is expected that the high level of bisphenol A will be adjusted in the near future.

In terms of supply: Last month, the overall operating rate of domestic PC gradually increased, from 60% at the beginning of the month to nearly 80%, and the industry load exceeded a three-year high to reach 78%. Due to the delivery of preliminary orders by the polymerization plant at the end of the month, the inventory pressure is still acceptable. However, as a result, the on-site supply of goods is relatively abundant, and the factory price of enterprises is cautious, which weakens their impact on spot prices.

In terms of demand: Last month, PC downstream customers just needed to maintain production, and the business owners had a heavy wait-and-see mentality. Auction prices fluctuate and operate. At present, the starting position of terminal enterprises is maintained, and the actual stock situation is in the off-season market. Some prices have been inverted on the market, and the main trading force is biased towards midstream traders.

Future Market Forecast

The PC market fluctuated and rose in July. The upstream market for bisphenol A is strengthening, and the support for PC costs is still acceptable. The load of domestic polymerization plants is gradually increasing to a three-year high, and the market has abundant spot supply. Traders have a poor mentality and tend to lower prices while placing orders. Downstream enterprises have insufficient follow-up on consumption, and it is expected that the PC market may fall back into a supply-demand contradiction in the short term, leading to weak consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 31, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 21266.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.08% from the beginning of the month’s price of 20433.33 yuan/ton and a 25.10% increase from the same period last year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of July 31, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 24766.67 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.67% compared to the beginning of the month price of 24933.33 yuan/ton, and an increase of 10.07% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In July, due to the continuous weakness of upstream raw material prices, the overall market price of refrigerant R22 was stable and weak. As of July 31, the domestic price of chloroform rose 1.85% in the month, and the price of hydrofluoric acid fell 0.94% in the month. With the slight recovery of the price of upstream raw material chloroform, and the manufacturer’s downtime for maintenance, the overall domestic inventory of R22 was low, the downstream demand of R22 was not reduced in summer, and the quota was still not implemented, In the latter half of the year, some R22 enterprises raised their factory prices, driving a slight rebound in the domestic R22 market prices.

As of July 31, the domestic Trichloroethylene price continued to operate at a low level, the hydrofluoric acid price continued to be weak, falling 0.94% in the month, and the raw material cost continued to be low. Supported by the overall low inventory of enterprises and the rising demand for refrigerants from downstream automobile enterprises, some enterprises slightly raised the R134a ex factory price at the end of the month, driving the domestic R134a market price to rise slightly.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic hydrofluoric acid prices continue to be weak, and the continued weakness of raw material prices will have a certain degree of pressure on the domestic refrigerant market prices in the future.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to refrigerant analysts from Business Society, supported by factors such as low inventory levels, rising costs, and unchanged downstream demand, it is expected that the domestic R22 market price will continue to operate steadily in August. The raw material cost continues to operate at a low level, and downstream demand is less than expected. In August, the overall price of R134a in the domestic market continued to rise with insufficient momentum.

In July, the dichloromethane market rose first and then fell, and it rose slightly at the end of the month compared with the beginning of the month. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of July 29, the price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2425 yuan/ton, up 3.63% from 2340 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and down 6.46% from the monthly high of 2592 yuan/ton. The price of methanol as raw material fluctuated higher, and the cost of dichloromethane became stronger; The pressure on the low to high supply surface continues before the start of the methane chloride plant; The price of downstream refrigerant R 32 is mainly small orders for dichloromethane procurement, with limited demand support; The dichloromethane market rose first and then fell.

In July, the methane chloride unit slightly decreased in the early stage of operation, and slightly increased after some units were restarted in the later stage. In the later stage, the supply pressure of the new Jiuhong unit is expected to increase again.

In July, the price of raw methanol rose in shock, and the cost of dichloromethane strengthened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of July 29th, the spot price of methanol was 2281 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.66% from 2180 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; The low point of the cycle is 2137 yuan/ton, and the high point is 2314 yuan/ton.

The downstream receives orders on demand, and the overall commencement is stable. The downstream refrigerant R 32 market is slightly higher, and the commencement is stable. The demand for dichloromethane is mainly supported by a small amount of rigid demand, which is slightly weaker than that at the beginning of the month. The inventory of dichloromethane manufacturers was slightly accumulated.

Future forecast: Analysts from the methane chloride data of the business community believe that the pressure on the supply side of dichloromethane is expected to increase, coupled with limited demand support, and the supply side of dichloromethane is weak, but the cost side may continue to rise. Overall, it is expected that the dichloromethane market will narrow in the short term.

In July 2023, the domestic 1 # antimony ingot market will fluctuate downward. The average market price in East China will be 81250 yuan/ton on the first day and 76000 yuan/ton on the 28th, down 6.46%.

On July 26th, the antimony commodity index was 105.80, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 12.89% from the cycle’s highest point of 121.46 points (2023 March 15), and an increase of 125.20% from the lowest point of 46.98 points on December 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2012-09-08 present).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above figure, it can be seen that the antimony ingot market has recently seen an upward trend before and after the Spring Festival. In March, prices fell broadly, while in April and May, the trend remained stable. After June, prices continued to decline for seven consecutive weeks.

In terms of external trading, the European strategic small metal antimony market continued to decline in July, with a quote of $11450/ton as of the 27th, a decrease of $400/ton compared to the same period last month.

In terms of the industrial chain, the antimony oxide market fell broadly in July following the trend of antimony ingots. Driven by the antimony ingot market, the monthly decrease was 5500 yuan/ton. Currently, market trading is light, downstream demand is generally weak, and future expectations are not good. Market prices have continued to decline.

In July, the antimony ingot market accelerated its decline. Under the supply and demand game of the past three months, the willingness of antimony ingot manufacturers to raise prices gradually declined. Some manufacturers adjusted their sales strategies to sell at reduced prices due to financial needs. However, downstream antimony oxide has performed poorly this month, with market transactions consistently weak. Market participants are generally bearish about the future market, with few market discussions and weak transactions. Antimony oxide manufacturers also have low intentions to purchase raw antimony ingots, which has a negative impact on the antimony ingot market mentality. The overseas situation is also not optimistic. The European region is about to enter a summer break, and overseas demand is expected to decline. The price of small metals in Europe has been continuously lowered by $400/ton for the month. Moreover, according to the latest export data, the export volume of antimony oxide and antimony ingots has decreased. The weakness of the overseas market has also affected the mentality of the domestic market, and the market’s outlook for the future is not good. Overall, the market demand is weak and the wait-and-see mentality is strong. It is difficult to improve the downstream demand market expectations, and in the case of low demand, the market performance is weak. In the future, the business society predicts that the antimony ingot market will continue to operate weakly.

Recently, the quotation of metal silicon has remained stable, with a strong willingness to stand up in the Southwest region. At present, the price of 441 # in Kunming is 14000-14100 yuan/ton, while the price in Sichuan is 13500-13700 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, the production in the main production areas continued to increase last week.

In the Sichuan region,

Affected by the Universiade, in order to ensure the electricity supply and air quality in Chengdu during the Universiade, some silicon factories in the surrounding areas of Chengdu have requested to suspend production. It is understood that last week, all five industrial silicon furnaces in Yingjing County of Ya’an were shut down. At zero o’clock on the 26th, a total of 10 silicon plants in Jinkouhe District, Ebian County and Baoxing County of Ya’an will be shut down. The supply in Sichuan has decreased.

In the Yunnan region,

The construction is at a high level, and most manufacturers have resumed production. Currently, the start-up rate has exceeded 70%, and there is limited room for growth in the later stage.

Xinjiang region,

In the early stage, the resumption of production of furnaces after shutdown was promoted, and there was still room for further growth of output, which also led to an increase in low price transactions in the northwest market.

In terms of demand, the overall market demand remains unchanged. The organic silicon DMC market continues to decline, with high inventory. A single factory in Shandong and a leading large factory have lowered their prices, while some single factories have followed suit. The price of polycrystalline silicon remains stable, and silicon material manufacturers continue to operate normally. However, inventory continues to digest due to the improvement in downstream demand, and prices will remain low in the near future. The process of continuing to rise in the short term will not be too long. The aluminum alloy market remained stable, and the operating rate of aluminum alloys remained flat month on month.

Future Market Forecast

Sichuan and Yunnan have limited production growth and stable quotations, while Xinjiang is actively resuming production, with more low-priced transactions in the market, suppressing prices in the south. Overall, there has been no significant change in the fundamentals of metallic silicon, and it is expected that the price of metallic silicon will operate smoothly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 25th, the average price of high-quality rubber grade white carbon black in China was 6025.00 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of white carbon black remained stable, with a limited range of price fluctuations. Currently, the mainstream price is around 6000 yuan/ton.

This week, the market price of white carbon black has been stable, with the mainstream price of around 6000 yuan/ton. The focus of negotiations is stable, with downstream demand procurement being the main focus, and the enthusiasm for stocking is average. Manufacturers mainly offer discounts and take orders, but the number of new orders is limited.

Chemical Index: On July 24th, the chemical index stood at 828 points, an increase of 2 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 40.86% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 38.46% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Business Society’s white carbon black analyst believes that the stable operation of the white carbon black market is the main focus in the short term.

According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic carbon black market prices have been operating weakly this week, with a slight decline. On July 24th, the domestic carbon black N220 was quoted at 8666 yuan/ton, mainly due to a decline in raw material prices in the early stage, poor downstream shipments, weak demand side performance, and a gradual increase in bearish factors on the market.

Cost: In terms of raw materials, the market price of high-temperature Coal tar remained stable this week, and so far, the market price of Coal tar is 4062 yuan/ton. After the introduction of the consumption tax policy, there are few new products in the market, and the overall operation of coke enterprises is poor. It is expected that the Coal tar market will be consolidated and operated in the short term.

Supply and demand side: Most carbon black enterprises maintain normal operating levels, and the overall operation of the domestic carbon black market is stable, with sufficient supply in the carbon black market.

In terms of demand: The overall demand of downstream tire enterprises is weak, still in the traditional sales off-season. Recently, there has been insufficient construction and construction work, and domestic demand has further weakened. Enterprises mainly need to purchase just now, and terminal demand continues to be weak. The overall demand in the future is not very optimistic.

Overall, the cost side support has increased, inventory levels are not high, and there has been no significant improvement in the demand side. It is expected that the carbon black market will be reorganized and operated in the short term.

On the 21st, precious metals saw a slight decline from their high levels

Precious metal prices rose in July. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, on July 21, 2023, the price of gold in the Spot market will be 459.28 yuan/g, a daily drop of 0.44%; Compared with the price of 448.60 yuan/g in the Spot market of gold at the beginning of the month (July 1), it rose 2.38%.

Silver fell back to the beginning of the month

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average silver market price will be 5843.67 yuan/kg on July 21, 2023, a daily drop of 1.36%, up 7.57% from 5432.33 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month (July 1).

Summary of Price Trends of Precious Metals and Crude Oil

In the early stage, the correlation between precious metals and crude oil trends is strong. After the second half of 2022, precious metal prices have bottomed out and stabilized, and the magnitude of macro factors affecting them has begun to show differentiation. The trend of precious metals and crude oil began to converge in late March, but after mid April, the trend began to diverge again. Mainly due to the increased impact of risk aversion on the rise of precious metal prices. Recently, crude oil prices have rebounded, and precious metal prices have also followed suit.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in the past year

In 2022, the rise and fall trends of precious metal gold and silver have converged, but the decline in silver was deeper from April to August, and the recent recovery has been more significant. In December, silver continued its strong trend last month, and gold began to consolidate at high levels. In 2023, precious metal gold and silver have consolidated at high levels, with a slight decline in February. Since March, precious metal prices have started to rise. Silver prices began to decline in May, while gold remained relatively strong. In June, gold prices reached a high level and silver prices began to rise.

Policy Fundamentals Data

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the UK rose 7.9% year-on-year in June, lower than expected.

noble metal

At present, the price of precious metals has been fluctuating in the high range after hitting a 10-year high in the early stage. In the early stage, we expected that under the high inflation and high interest rate hikes, the pace of overseas economic recession may lead to a relatively strong sense of risk aversion, which is currently reflected in prices. Some central banks around the world increased their holdings of Gold reserve, which also formed some support for gold prices.

Silver rose significantly in July, and its price was overestimated by fundamentals, leading to profit taking in funds. In addition, with the July Fed meeting approaching, interest rate hikes are expected to be high, although it may be the last rate hike in the Fed’s most aggressive tightening rate hike cycle in 40 years. Interest rate hikes suppress precious metal prices. In the short term, precious metals have been volatile and bearish after recent highs; In the medium to long term, it remains bullish. Mainly due to the end of the tightening cycle, overall commodities may gradually improve, and silver commodities have a larger attribute and still have upward momentum.