Price trend

Recently, the domestic ABS market has been relatively strong, with spot prices rising. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 25th, the average price of ABS sample products was 10725 yuan/ton, a+1.66% increase or decrease from the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: The ABS industry has recently experienced a high load, with a total operating rate of over 94%, which has increased compared to the previous period. The on-site supply of goods is abundant. Inventory continues to rise, overall at over 170000 tons. The supply side has weak support for the spot market.

In terms of raw materials, the overall performance of the upstream three materials of ABS has been relatively good recently. The market situation of raw material acrylonitrile has remained stable with little movement. Although there has been a pressure on the market due to the increase in initial equipment starts, the price of propylene has been strong this week. In addition, the willingness of enterprises to rise after the price drop has increased, and the price of acrylonitrile may have a narrow upward trend.

This week, butadiene prices were at a high level. Driven by the rise in external market prices and the trend of downstream synthetic rubber futures, and supported by high quotations from production enterprises, it is difficult to find low-cost sources of goods in the market. However, the market has abundant spot resources, and short-term trading follow-up is relatively cautious.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the market price of styrene has continued to rise recently. Although downstream demand continued to be weak in the early stage this week, pure benzene remained strong in terms of cost. At the same time, the industry load has decreased, and the shutdown and maintenance devices have diverted some pressure from the supply side. Confidence in the market has increased, and it is expected that the short-term styrene spot market may maintain a strong consolidation operation.

In terms of demand: Currently, downstream factories, including the main terminal home appliance industry, have average enthusiasm for stocking. In addition, the downstream operating rate is still at a low level due to factors such as season and power restrictions. After the price increase of ABS, the manufacturer’s acceptance declined, and the procurement operation was cautious, resulting in overall poor trading performance.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the upstream three materials of ABS have been steadily consolidated and have shown strong support for the cost side of ABS. The start of petrochemical plants saw a narrow increase compared to the previous period, and market inventory continued to accumulate. On the demand side, support is weak, and the overall pattern of weak and rigid demand is maintained. It is expected that the ABS market may enter a stalemate.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 21, the average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises was 277750.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.89% compared to last Tuesday (August 15) and 11.53% compared to the same period last year.

Recently, the domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide market has continued to operate weakly. Recently, the lithium ore market has been operating in a weak state, with a sluggish lithium carbonate market and insufficient support for the lithium hydroxide market. Downstream procurement has a cautious attitude, and negotiations on high-end prices in the market have been weak. Transactions are mainly on demand, and the overall atmosphere is average.

Upstream lithium carbonate: Recently, the prices of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate have decreased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on August 21, the reference price for lithium carbonate industrial grade was 222000.00, a decrease of 18.98% compared to August 1 (274000.00).

Business Society Lithium Hydroxide Analysts believe that currently, enterprise shipments are mainly based on long-term orders, and demand follow-up is still insufficient. The market atmosphere is flat, and it is expected that in the short term, the domestic lithium hydroxide market may be mainly weak, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price trend of cryolite in Henan region is stable. On August 20th, the average market price in Henan region was 7850 yuan/ton, which is the same as the average price of 7850 yuan/ton on August 14th, with a year-on-year increase of 2.28%.

quotations analysis

This week, the price of cryolite is mainly stable, and the manufacturer’s quotation remains stable. Upstream construction of cryolite remains low, raw material prices have risen, and production cost pressure on cryolite has increased. Manufacturers’ inventory has remained rational, and their quotations have been firm. Downstream follow-up on high priced cryolite is weak, and cryolite manufacturers are actively shipping, while the market is watching and operating. As of August 21st, the factory quotation for cryolite in Shandong region is 7000-8600 yuan/ton; The factory quotation for cryolite in Henan region is between 7200-8900 yuan/ton.

The upstream fluorite market has risen, with an average market price of 3093.75 yuan/ton as of August 20, an increase of 1.23% compared to the price of 3056.25 yuan/ton as of August 14. The current situation of the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and the operating rate of enterprises remains low. At the same time, due to safety and environmental requirements, it is difficult to improve the operation of fluorite mines. The restrictions on operation have led to a tight inventory of fluorite enterprises, a tight market spot, and an upward trend in fluorite prices.

The downstream aluminum market continued to fluctuate, with aluminum prices around 18533.33 yuan/ton on August 20th, an increase of 0.78% compared to the price of 18390.00 yuan/ton on August 14th. In the off-season of downstream consumption, the operating rate is low, market demand is limited, the atmosphere of on-site trading is average, the situation of inventory removal is not ideal, and the aluminum price market is operating in a consolidation manner, with limited support for cryolite.

Future Market Forecast

Cryolite enterprises have no inventory pressure and maintain active shipments. Downstream parties follow up on demand. The market trading atmosphere is weak, with low starting prices for raw materials and rising prices, which is good for supporting cryolite. It is expected that the cryolite market will continue to rise in the future, and specific attention will be paid to changes in manufacturer inventory in the future.

The nitrile rubber market slightly increased this week (8.11-8.19). According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 19th, the price of nitrile rubber was 14025 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.72% from last Friday’s 13925 yuan/ton. The price of raw material butadiene continues to rise slightly, while the price of acrylonitrile slightly decreases, and the cost of nitrile rubber fluctuates slightly; Downstream inquiries are often made on demand, resulting in relatively flat market transactions.

This week (8.11-8.19). The price of raw material butadiene continues to rise slightly, while the price of acrylonitrile slightly decreases, and the cost of nitrile rubber fluctuates slightly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 19th, the price of butadiene was 7613 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.83% from last Friday’s 7551 yuan/ton; As of August 19th, the price of acrylonitrile decreased by 1.04% from last Friday’s 8400 yuan/ton at 8312 yuan/ton.

As of August 19th, the construction of domestic nitrile rubber plants has been temporarily stable.

The downstream rubber product industry, such as rubber hoses and automotive parts, mainly has small inquiries and small transactions in the market. Overall, they continue to purchase on demand, and the on-site trading atmosphere is average; The supply of domestic nitrile rubber in the market is gradually increasing, but currently the inventory level is not high, and many merchants have maintained a stable and moderate adjustment.

Future forecast: Business Society nitrile analysts believe that the current supply of nitrile rubber is gradually increasing, and the downstream just needs to support the transaction atmosphere is average. It is expected that the nitrile rubber market will consolidate in a narrow range in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the price center of the Yungui yellow phosphorus market this week is upward. Last Thursday, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 24100 yuan/ton, and this Thursday’s average price was 24400 yuan/ton. During the week, the price increased by 1.24%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price center of Yungui yellow phosphorus market is upward. At present, the overall market trading situation of yellow phosphorus is relatively active, with tight spot prices in the yellow phosphorus market. Manufacturers mainly place early orders, mainly at high prices, and there is not much inventory on the market. The focus of new order transaction prices is upward, and market confidence is good. Some manufacturers do not provide external quotations. As of now, the market quotation is around 24300-24500 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiated separately.

In terms of phosphate ore, the domestic phosphate ore market has temporarily stabilized this week. The reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China is around 856 yuan/ton. At present, the overall phosphorus ore market has been operating at a weak and low level for a period of time. The industry in the phosphorus ore field is highly optimistic about rising prices. Although the terminal demand is average, the recovery of the downstream yellow phosphorus and phosphoric acid market still gives confidence to the industry. Therefore, the risk of a sustained downward trend in the phosphorus ore market is relatively small. The phosphorus ore data analyst from the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market will mostly remain stable and consolidate, The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in news on the supply and demand side.

In terms of coke, the market price of coke in Shandong Port is temporarily stable, with a quasi first level ex-warehouse price of around 2050-2100 yuan/ton and a first level ex-warehouse price of 2150-2200 yuan/ton. The port market is currently operating steadily, with little change in inventory between the two ports, weak intention of traders to gather at the port, and slightly cold trading at the port. In terms of freight, 195 yuan/ton from Xiaoyi to Rizhao Port on the 16th, and 185 yuan/ton from Jiexiu to Rizhao Port.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid has slightly decreased this week. Last Thursday, the average price of phosphoric acid was 6660 yuan/ton, while this Thursday’s average price was 6640 yuan/ton. During the week, the price decreased by 0.3%. This week, the price range of phosphoric acid in the phosphoric acid market fluctuated internally, with a slight decrease. The market’s demand side performance was flat, and there was a strong wait-and-see sentiment. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market price will continue to operate in a narrow range in the short term.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that upstream phosphate rock prices are temporarily stable, coke prices are stable, and cost support is still acceptable. In the downstream glyphosate market, there are certain favorable factors for the demand for yellow phosphorus due to early stocking. In addition, the current shortage of spot goods in the yellow phosphorus market and acceptable order taking situation make it difficult to find low-priced sources due to manufacturers’ high prices. It is expected that in the short term, yellow phosphorus will mainly operate with a strong trend, and we will pay attention to changes in the news surface.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 15th, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 8275.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.22% compared to last Friday (August 11th).

Recently, the epichlorohydrin market has seen a slight increase. Recently, the price of raw material propylene has fluctuated and increased, with stable prices of raw material glycerol as the main factor. Cost support has been strengthened, and the supply side industry’s capacity utilization rate is below 50%. The overall supply in the market is relatively low, supporting the rise of enterprise quotations. Downstream inquiries and procurement orders are mainly in need of follow-up, and the market has a strong wait-and-see mentality.

Upstream propylene, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price for propylene on August 14th was 6788.25, an increase of 1.12% compared to August 1st (6713.25).

Downstream epoxy resin, on August 14th, the reference price for epoxy resin was 14566.67, an increase of 2.58% compared to August 1st (14200.00).

Analysts from Business Society’s epichlorohydrin believe that there is still cost support and there is currently no pressure on manufacturers’ inventory. However, downstream follow-up is average, and it is expected that the epichlorohydrin market may operate at a high level in the short term. More attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, starting from August, supply is tightening, terminal demand is increasing, and the hydrogen peroxide market is constantly rising. On August 1st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 1200 yuan/ton. On August 14th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 1350 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 12.5%.

Lido supports the continuous upward trend of hydrogen peroxide market

Since August, some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have not yet started up, and the supply is still tight. In addition, the market for caprolactam at the hydrogen peroxide terminal has risen, leading to an increase in orders for hydrogen peroxide. Supported by multiple positive factors, the hydrogen peroxide market has continued to soar. On August 7th, the daily increase exceeded 8%. As of August 7th, the prices quoted by hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have increased, with mainstream prices ranging from 1300 to 1400 yuan/ton, an increase of around 100 yuan/ton.

In the middle of the year, the supply side remained tight, and the hydrogen peroxide market once again saw a surge.

Li Bing, a chemical analyst at Business Society, believes that with positive support and improved terminal demand, the hydrogen peroxide market will continue to operate at a high level in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from August 4 to August 11, 2022, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China increased significantly, from 7783.33 yuan/ton last week to 7900 yuan/ton this week, an increase of 1.5%.

In terms of crude oil: During this cycle, the crude oil market rose first and then fell, with an overall upward trend. On August 10th, international crude oil futures closed lower. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $82.82 per barrel, a decrease of $1.58 or 1.9%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $86.40 per barrel, a decrease of $1.15 or 1.3%. The weak economic data in the United States, coupled with the uncertain outlook for Chinese demand, has put pressure on the oil market and led to a downward trend.

The factory price of Sinopec pure benzene has increased by a total of 150 yuan/ton during this cycle, with a current implementation of 7750 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7800 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7750 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 8003 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7800 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7750 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this week. On August 7th, the price of pure benzene was 7675 yuan/ton, and on Friday (August 11th), the price of pure benzene was 7800 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.66% compared to last week and a decrease of 4.38% compared to the same period last year.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen a positive trend in recent times. After ten consecutive weeks of decline, it has continued to rise for six consecutive weeks.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, crude oil continued to show a strong trend this week. The pure benzene market was affected by the tight inventory in East China, and prices continued to rise during the week. Sinopec has raised the ex factory price of pure benzene to 7750 yuan/ton. Driven by the pure benzene market, the hydrogenation benzene market continued to rise this week, but the increase was relatively small.

Driven by the pure benzene market, the hydrogenation benzene market continued to rise this week. Currently, the factory price in Hebei region has risen to 7850-7900 yuan/ton, an increase of 50-150 yuan/ton. The market price in East China has risen to 8000 yuan/ton. On the supply side, due to tight profits, the operating rate of hydrogenation benzene enterprises has slightly declined this week, and currently, on-site supply is relatively normal. There has been little change in demand. In terms of raw materials, the auction price of crude benzene has risen again this week, and the profitability of hydrogenation benzene enterprises remains poor, resulting in significant cost pressure for enterprises. In the future, there has been no significant change in supply and demand, and the trend of hydrogenated benzene will still follow the fluctuations of the pure benzene market. At present, the price of pure benzene is fluctuating at a high level, and there is a resistance mentality in the downstream. However, the overall supply of pure benzene is tight, which has a certain boost to the market. It is expected that the market for pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene will experience high volatility in the short term.

The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and increased this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 8th, the price of DOP was 11191.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.87% compared to the price of 10375 yuan/ton on July 30th. The price of isooctanol has skyrocketed, the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and increased, the cost of plasticizer DOP raw materials has increased, downstream demand has stabilized, and the operating rate of plasticizers has decreased to around 50%. The supply of plasticizers is insufficient, and the support for plasticizer increase has increased. The price of plasticizer DOP has fluctuated and increased.

The price of isooctanol skyrocketed this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on August 8th was 11033.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.45% compared to the price of 9900 yuan/ton on July 30th. The planned and unexpected fluctuations in domestic octanol units have led to continuous tightening of the supply side, resulting in continuous increases in octanol prices. The inventory of isooctanol is low, and the market center has shifted upwards. This week, the price of isooctanol has skyrocketed, and the cost of plasticizer DOP raw materials has increased. As the price of isooctanol has risen to a high level, buying sentiment has become cautious. In mid to late August, two sets of isooctanol units in Shandong and Jiangsu are planned to restart, and the supply side of the isooctanol market is expected to be loose. However, there is insufficient support for the rise of isooctanol in the future.

The market of raw material phthalic anhydride fluctuates and rises

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products of the Business Society, as of August 8th, the quotation for neighboring phthalic anhydride was 8750 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.40% compared to the price of 8462.50 yuan/ton on July 30th. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, and the operating rate of domestic phthalic anhydride is maintained at over 60%. The supply of phthalic anhydride goods is normal. Recently, there has been an increase in export orders for phthalic anhydride, and the supply of goods has been slightly tight. In addition, the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has risen, leading to a significant increase in the price of ortho benzene and ortho phthalic anhydride. The transaction situation of phthalic anhydride is good, and the market situation is rising. The cost of raw materials has increased, and the driving force for the cost increase of plasticizers has increased.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that the resumption of production of isooctanol, the insufficient support for the surge in isooctanol prices, the fluctuating rise in phthalic anhydride prices, and limited support for the increase in DOP cost of plasticizer products; The downstream PVC procurement enthusiasm is average, and the demand for plasticizers is weak; The low operating rate of plasticizer enterprises is stabilizing, and the supply of plasticizers is temporarily stable. In the future, the support for cost increases is insufficient, the supply of plasticizers is temporarily stable, while demand is weak. The support for the rise of plasticizer DOP is insufficient, and it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will fluctuate and consolidate.

Zinc prices fluctuate and rise this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 7th, the zinc price was 20962 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.04% compared to the fluctuating zinc price of 20542 yuan/ton on July 30th. The maintenance of zinc smelting enterprises has increased, the processing cost of zinc concentrate has increased, and the metal zinc market is positive. This week, zinc prices have fluctuated and increased.

Weakened Supply Expectation Meets Less Than Expected Demand

This week, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee has slightly increased, with Shaoguan region increasing by 100 yuan/metal ton to 5350 yuan/metal ton, Chenzhou region increasing by 100 yuan/metal ton to 5300 yuan/metal ton, Zhuzhou increasing by 300 yuan/metal ton to 5600 yuan/metal ton, Hechi region increasing by 300 yuan/metal ton to 5300 yuan/metal ton, and Kunming increasing by 100 yuan/metal ton to 5200 yuan/metal ton. In July 2023, China’s refined zinc production was 551100 tons, a decrease of 14000 tons or 0.26% compared to the previous month, a year-on-year increase of 15.79%, slightly exceeding the expected value. It is expected that the domestic refined zinc production will increase by 16000 tons month on month to 552700 tons in August 2023, a year-on-year increase of 19.43%. The maintenance of zinc smelting enterprises has increased, and the expected growth of refined zinc supply has weakened.

Affected by the rainstorm in the north, the construction of infrastructure and other related projects has been postponed, the orders of galvanized enterprises are weak, and the operating rate of enterprises is lower month on month. Die-casting enterprises are operating at a low level, while zinc oxide enterprises are also slightly lower in terms of production compared to the previous month. The production of galvanized steel plates in large domestic steel mills has increased month on month. Overall, domestic demand is relatively stable. However, due to the impact of rainstorm weather, the demand of zinc city is less than expected.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, there has been an increase in maintenance for zinc smelting enterprises, an increase in zinc concentrate processing fees, an expected decline in refined zinc production, and a weakening of zinc market supply; In terms of demand, due to the impact of typhoon weather, the demand growth in the zinc market is not as expected. In the future, both supply and demand in the zinc market have shown varying growth, but the growth has not been as expected. Zinc prices have fluctuated and risen, but their sustained support is limited. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate and consolidate at high levels in the future.