According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PP market rose in early September, with various wire drawing brands fluctuating and rising. As of September 12th, the mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7914.29 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of+2.40% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: In early September, in terms of PP raw materials, the propylene market in Shandong fell, resulting in poor upstream supply and inventory accumulation. The focus of transactions continued to shift downwards. The price of methanol has also eased. However, there has been an increase in international oil prices, coupled with an increase in maintenance of PDH devices in the early stages, resulting in strong cost support for oil based and PHD based PP. Overall, the cost support for polypropylene is still acceptable.

The trend of raw materials in all directions has increased with a decrease, and there is support for PP on the cost side. In terms of industry load, the overall industry load has been around 78% recently, with a lower position compared to previous fluctuations. The overall supply of goods is stable, and the on-site supply of goods is sufficient. In terms of demand, there has been a slight increase compared to the previous period, with downstream plastic weaving production remaining at over 40% and leveling off. In terms of film materials and injection molding, the operating rate of enterprises has remained around 60%, with an overall position of horizontal. The stocking situation of terminal enterprises is based on demand procurement, and the market performance is gradually warming up due to the influence of traditional peak seasons. It is expected that the consumption of plastic weaving and packaging may show a seasonal increase.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 12th, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has increased. The mainstream quoted price of domestic producers and traders for Z30S (fiber) is around 7925 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of+3.43% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of -2.56% compared to the same period last year. Recently, the main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises of PP fiber materials have seen a narrow increase in load, with an overall operating rate of over 35%. The demand for fiber materials in the market has increased compared to the previous period, and the digestion speed of non-woven end products is still acceptable. The enterprise’s efforts to replenish fiber PP have increased the industry load. It is expected that in the short term, there may be cost and demand support for fiber materials, leading to a stronger finishing operation.

In terms of melt blown materials, the recent melt blown PP market has been relatively strong. As of September 12th, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society is about 8175 yuan/ton, which is 0.93% higher than the average price level at the beginning of the month and 11.46% lower than the same period last year. At present, the domestic and international news of the health incident has basically subsided, and the consumption of medical meltblown fabric materials is weak. There is also no significant boost in domestic and foreign demand. The main support for the market is the cost side, and it is expected that the melt blown material market may maintain a stronger consolidation market.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market rose in early September. The overall trend of upstream raw materials is relatively strong, and the support from the cost side for the market is still acceptable. The construction of terminal enterprises continues to maintain the previous level, and goods are just needed. It is expected that the PP market will gradually enter the peak season and continue to strengthen in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China on September 4th was 3083 yuan/ton. On September 8th, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China was 3116 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of monoammonium phosphate increased by 1.08%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China on September 4th was 3850 yuan/ton. On September 8th, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3875 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of diammonium phosphate increased by 0.65%.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of ammonium phosphate continued to rise this week. The prices of raw materials such as phosphate ore and sulfur have increased, resulting in increased cost-effectiveness. Under the support of pending orders in the monoammonium phosphate market, the market continues to be strong and upward. The spot price of diammonium phosphate in the market is tight, and as the autumn wheat fertilizer needs to follow up, the price of diammonium phosphate continues to strengthen. As of September 8th, the market quotation for 55 powdered ammonium in Hubei Province is around 3100 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The quotation for 64% ammonium chloride in Shandong region is around 3750-4000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiated.

In terms of raw sulfur, the domestic sulfur market has shown an upward trend this week. As of September 8th, the reference average price of sulfur in East China is 1176.67 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material phosphorus ore, the domestic mid to high-end grade phosphorus ore market overall rose this week. The trading atmosphere in the domestic phosphate ore market has improved, and downstream demand has boosted. The supply of mid to high-end grade phosphate ore in the field is tight, and spot circulation is low. The mentality of phosphate ore industry has improved, and some mining enterprises in some regions have raised the prices of mid to high-end grade phosphate ore.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from the Business Society believe that the ammonium phosphate market has been continuously rising due to strong costs and pending orders. At present, the market supply is increasing, downstream procurement is cautious, and distributors are actively shipping. It is expected that the short-term rise in ammonium phosphate will slow down, with high level consolidation and operation being the main focus.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the price of Yungui yellow phosphorus market remained stable and increased this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of the week was 26293 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 26400 yuan/ton. The price increased by 0.41% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market price of Yungui yellow phosphorus remained stable and slightly increased. The overall trading and investment situation of yellow phosphorus market is relatively good. The price of upstream phosphate rock rises, and the cost support is awesome. At present, manufacturers mainly place early orders, with high prices as the main focus, and there is not much inventory on site. Some manufacturers do not provide external quotations for the time being. As of now, the market quotation is around 26300-26500 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiated separately.

In terms of phosphate ore, the domestic phosphate ore market has been on the rise this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of phosphate rock was 876 yuan/ton, while at the weekend, the average price was 912 yuan/ton. During the week, the price increased by 4.11%. At present, the overall atmosphere of the phosphorus ore market is moderate, with some recovery. The overall supply side is relatively tight, providing some support to the market. The recovery of stable downstream demand has boosted market confidence. The phosphorus ore data analyst of the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market will mostly operate in a stable, medium to strong manner, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

In terms of coke, the market price of coke in Shandong Port is temporarily stable, with a quasi first level ex-warehouse price of around 2150-2200 yuan/ton and a first level ex-warehouse price of 2250-2300 yuan/ton. The port market is currently operating steadily, with inventory in the two ports slightly increasing and port consolidation slightly improving. However, the actual trading volume in the spot market is relatively low. In terms of shipping cost, it is 190 yuan/ton from Xiaoyi to Rizhao Port on the 8th, and 180 yuan/ton from Jiexiu to Rizhao Port.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid has increased this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of phosphoric acid was 6941.67 yuan/ton, and at the weekend, it was 7040 yuan/ton. During the week, the price increased by 1.42%. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will improve in the short term and wait for the trend of raw materials.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Community believe that the current upstream phosphate rock price rise, coke price stability, and cost support awesome. Next week will be a critical period for pre holiday stocking, and downstream enterprises may increase demand. Under the combination of positive and negative factors, it is expected that the yellow phosphorus will be mainly strong in the short term, and we will pay attention to changes in the news.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the prices of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to decline this week. The average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate on September 7th was 202600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.52% compared to the average price of 210000 yuan/ton on September 3rd. The average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate on September 7th was 216800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.21% compared to the average price of 224000 yuan/ton on September 3rd.

By observing market changes, it can be seen that the price of lithium carbonate is still in a downward trend this week. In terms of supply, there is little fluctuation in the production output of lithium salt factories, and there is sufficient circulation of goods in the spot market. The current situation of oversupply in the spot market is maintained. As the node has entered a new round of long-term negotiation cycle, with high upstream inventory and market supply and demand imbalance, most downstream manufacturers have low purchasing intentions, leading to a downward shift in lithium carbonate prices.

In terms of demand, the upstream and downstream of the industry currently hold a wait-and-see attitude towards lithium salt prices. The recovery of downstream demand is poor. Although there are frequent inquiries, both procurement and actual transactions are relatively light, and delays in picking up and negotiating orders often occur. In addition, the continuous decline in lithium carbonate futures prices has led to a continuous decline in spot prices.

The lithium hydroxide market has declined, with a slight decline in spodumene concentrate prices and a decrease in lithium carbonate prices recently. Cost support has weakened, and production enterprises mainly rely on long-term orders. Downstream merchants just need to purchase, resulting in weak demand and a lackluster market transaction atmosphere.

Downstream lithium iron phosphate prices operate steadily, while upstream raw material cost support is weak. Market demand is poor, and downstream restocking is on demand. The willingness to stock up is average, and the overall purchasing atmosphere is cold. In the short term, the lithium iron phosphate market operates steadily and weakly.

In terms of futures, on September 7th, the opening price of the LC2401 contract for lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 190000 yuan/ton, with the latest price of 184700 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 3.35%. The transaction volume was 61600, and the position was 32985.

Lithium carbonate analysts from Business Society believe that the current market supply and demand pattern has not changed significantly, and most downstream manufacturers have low purchasing intentions. It is expected that lithium carbonate prices will continue to fluctuate at low levels in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic BDO market is at a high level of consolidation. From August 28th to September 4th, the average price of domestic BDO increased from 11485 yuan/ton to 11642 yuan/ton, with a weekly price increase of 1.37%, a month on month increase of 4.22%, and a year-on-year increase of 14.01%. And the online sales of the factory are relatively high, supporting suppliers to continue to support the market. Although the main terminal spandex market has experienced a narrow upward trend, there has been no significant improvement in the start of construction, which temporarily provides limited support for the trend of raw materials.

On the supply side, the market supply has increased, and supply side support has weakened. There are currently no planned changes to other devices. The supply side of BDO is mixed.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The domestic calcium carbide market continues to be at a high level. With the increase in supply, the market supply and demand have eased, but in the short term, there is still a shortage of goods. In terms of methanol, the domestic methanol market has been experiencing high volatility recently. As of 15:00 on September 4th, the domestic methanol Taicang price is 2530 yuan/ton. Recently, the market for calcium carbide and methanol has continued to rise, and the cost of BDO has continued to be positive.

On the demand side, the load of the PBT industry has increased to slightly over 50%, with contract procurement still being the main focus and spot tracking average; The production of TPU in the polyurethane field has declined, while the production of PU slurry industry has remained stable. The short-term positive factors affecting the demand side of BDO.

In the future market forecast, there is still some support on the supply side, but the downstream end has limited ability to accept high prices. Contract orders are mainly followed up, while spot orders are generally followed up, or market trends may be suppressed. BDO analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic BDO market will mainly consolidate at a high level.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PP market rose in August, with various wire drawing brands fluctuating and rising. As of August 31st, the mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7685.71 yuan/ton, with a+3.16% increase or decrease compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: Upstream, PP raw materials in August, and propylene in Shandong have increased driven by crude oil costs. The increase in maintenance of PDH devices and the decrease in on-site supply have boosted market information, while also affecting the upward trend of propylene prices. At the end of the month, supply tightened and prices once again showed a broad upward trend. Overall, polypropylene has strong cost support.

The trend of raw materials in all directions is acceptable, and there is support for PP on the cost side. In terms of industry load, the overall industry load was around 79% at the end of August, with a lower position compared to the previous period of volatility. The overall supply of goods was stable, and the on-site supply of goods was sufficient. The changes in demand are not significant compared to the previous period, with downstream plastic weaving operations remaining flat at over 40%, and the operating rate of film and injection molding enterprises maintaining around 60%. The overall position is still good, and the stocking situation of terminal enterprises is orderly. The market performance is balanced, and it is expected that some enterprises may experience seasonal recovery in purchasing and restocking.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 31, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has increased. The mainstream quoted price of domestic producers and traders for Z30S (fiber) is around 7650 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of+2.68% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of -4.42% compared to the same period last year. During the month, the downstream non-woven fabric enterprises, the main force of PP fiber materials, maintained a low horizontal load, with an overall operating rate of around 32%. The demand for fiber materials in the market remains low, the digestion speed of non-woven end products is average, and the enterprise’s replenishment operation for fiber PP is average. It is expected that in the short term, fiber materials may maintain cost support and tend to strengthen the consolidation operation.

In terms of melt blown materials, this week’s melt blown PP market fluctuated. As of August 31st, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society is around 8100 yuan/ton, which is 0% higher than the average price level at the beginning of the month and 11.64% lower than the same period last year. At present, the domestic and international news of the health incident has basically subsided, and the consumption of medical meltblown fabric materials is weak. There is also no significant boost in domestic and foreign demand. The main support for the market is the cost side, and it is expected that the melt blown material market may maintain a volatile consolidation market.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market rose in August. The overall trend of upstream raw materials is strong, and the support from the cost side for the market is still acceptable. The construction of terminal enterprises continues to maintain the previous level, and the demand for goods is relatively high. It is expected that the PP market will enter the peak season and strengthen in the short term.

List of ethylene glycol prices

According to data from Business News Agency, as of August 31st, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.97% compared to 4141.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The prices in various regions are as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is 3900-4160 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4050 yuan/ton, while the mainstream manufacturers in Central China have a spot price range of 3900 yuan/ton for external execution; The spot price for mainstream manufacturers in North China is 4160 yuan/ton.

On August 30th, the CIF price of ethylene glycol in China was 464 US dollars/ton; The CIF Southeast Asia price is 481 US dollars per ton.

Ethylene glycol fundamentals

From the supply side, the operating rate of domestic ethylene glycol is still high, and some devices have restarted. Recently, several sets of long-term shutdown and planned maintenance devices have been restarted, and Xinjiang Zhongkun is about to be put into operation for testing. Currently, it is still in the stage of oversupply.

On the demand side: downstream polyester maintains high operating rates, with a polyester operating rate of over 90%; Terminal new orders followed up slightly month on month, with a slight increase compared to the previous month and still at a low level year-on-year. The operating load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is around 70%, while the operating load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang elastic looms is 70-80%, indicating an overall increase.

In terms of port inventory, as of August 31, the inventory of ethylene glycol at the East China main port was 1.1448 million tons. Recently, there has been a concentration of port arrivals, and there is a phenomenon of accumulated inventory in the data.

Ethylene glycol callback in August

The supply and demand fundamentals of ethylene glycol are still weak, especially with some coal production units experiencing restart, and production capacity is beginning to reflect in terms of production. There is an expectation of an increase in the social inventory of ethylene glycol. On the demand side, there is a positive trend month on month, but overall it is not as expected. The short-term fundamental trend is weak. The recent game point is whether the emotional benefits brought by cost factors can suppress the reality of weak fundamentals.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of August 30, 2023, the reference price of n-butanol in the Shandong region of China was 9666 yuan/ton. Compared with August 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 7916 yuan/ton), the price increased by 1750 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.11%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that since August (8.1-8.30), the domestic Shandong n-butanol market has shown an overall upward trend. In early August, the n-butanol market in Shandong Province showed a trend of first rising and then falling, with an overall market increase of 0.21%. At the beginning of the month, some domestic n-butanol plants were centrally shut down for maintenance, and the spot supply in the n-butanol field was reduced. The supply side was tight, supporting the upward trend of the n-butanol market. In addition, downstream demand for phased stocking also had a positive impact on the market. Therefore, with support from both supply and demand, the center of gravity of the n-butanol market steadily increased. On the 7th, the n-butanol market price was referenced at 8100 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.32% compared to the beginning of the month. Subsequently, the tight supply of n-butanol on the market gradually eased, and after the end of downstream stocking, the demand side also returned to calm. After weak supply and demand support, the n-butanol market quickly fell back to the beginning of the month.

In late August, some n-butanol units encountered parking again, and the on-site supply was once again reduced, reducing the pressure on the supply side. The n-butanol market once again saw a steady rise with the support of the supply side. Downstream demand was good, new orders for n-butanol were smoothly traded, and the trading atmosphere on the market was active. With the support of both sides, the n-butanol market saw a broad increase at the end of the month, with high-end market prices reaching nearly 10000 yuan. As of August 30th, the domestic market price of n-butanol in Shandong region is around 7900-8100 yuan/ton.

Aftermarket analysis of n-butanol

At present, the overall high level consolidation and operation of the n-butanol market, with a decent trading atmosphere on the market, is expected by the n-butanol data analyst of the Business Society. In the short term, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong region will mainly adjust and operate with large stability and small fluctuations, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to specific news changes on the supply and demand side.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic BDO market in August saw a unilateral upward trend. From August 1st to 29th, the average price of domestic BDO increased from 11042 yuan/ton to 11628 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 5.30% during the cycle and a year-on-year increase of 14.29%.

At the beginning of the month, some production enterprises underwent equipment maintenance, agent replacement, and load reduction, resulting in a decrease in the overall industry load and a certain positive supply side inventory. Factories and traders were reluctant to sell their spot goods in the market. Downstream industries maintain contract follow-up, limited and negotiated spot purchases, and limited gains.

In the first half of this month, the industry’s production capacity utilization rate is currently low, and the market’s spot supply is tight. Production enterprises are reluctant to sell, and online bidding is on the high side of the market. Downstream rigid demand procurement is the main focus, and under cost pressure, it tends to be cautious, suppressing market growth.

In mid month, due to the impact of device maintenance, the industry’s operating rate remained at a low level, and the mentality of being reluctant to sell spot goods continued. However, the downstream demand of the terminal is generally followed up, and there is resistance to high priced raw materials, leading to a stalemate in market trading and consolidation stage.

Towards the end of the month, although the early maintenance devices have been restarted one after another, the inventory pressure on the production enterprises is controllable, and the intention to support the market is strong, which helps to promote the bidding premium transaction. However, at the beginning of the new settlement cycle, the downstream buying of gas at the terminal is average, with contract procurement being the main focus, spot procurement being light, and the market’s focus consolidating.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: In August, the domestic calcium carbide market continued to be at a high level, and coal mine safety inspections boosted the rise of raw materials. Upstream blue charcoal showed a situation of easy to rise but difficult to fall, and the calcium carbide market continued to show regional adjustments, exacerbating the shortage of goods. In terms of methanol, the domestic methanol market experienced high volatility in August, with a monthly increase of 4.07%. Recently, the market for calcium carbide and methanol has continued to rise, and the cost of BDO has continued to be positive.

On the demand side, the PTMEG industry’s Blue Mountain Tunhe and Yanchang petroleum units continue to undergo maintenance, the Ningxia Xiaoxing chemical plant is restarted, and the Huaheng plant is put into operation and trial run, with little change in raw material digestion. The PBT industry has a load of less than 50%, with factory contract procurement being the main focus and spot tracking being average; The TPU production in the polyurethane field has increased, and the PU slurry industry is operating steadily, with a slight increase in raw material digestion. The PBAT industry’s load remains low. Short term bearish factors on the demand side of BDO.

In the future market forecast, there is still some support on the supply side, but the downstream end has limited ability to accept high prices. Contract orders are mainly followed up, while spot orders are generally followed up, or market trends may be suppressed. BDO analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic BDO market will mainly be sorted out.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate on August 1st was 1052 yuan/ton. On August 28th, the average factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 920 yuan/ton. This month, the price of ammonium sulfate decreased by 12.59%.

2、 Market analysis

This month, the high market price of ammonium sulfate has declined, and the price has dropped significantly. In early August, the ammonium sulfate market continued its previous trend, with prices rising slightly. The high price of urea remains a positive factor. The international market for ammonium sulfate is performing well, with strong support for export orders. Downstream and distributors are actively restocking. The bidding price of coking grade ammonium sulfate has increased, while the price of domestic grade ammonium sulfate has also increased. Starting from August 7th, the price of ammonium sulfate began to decline and continued to decline until the end of the month. The international market for ammonium sulfate has performed poorly, with a significant price decline, which has a bearish impact on the domestic market. Combined with the continuous increase in prices before, the price of ammonium sulfate has been at a high level, and downstream and dealers have a resistance towards high prices. The bidding price of ammonium sulfate has significantly decreased, and the focus of market transactions has declined. As of August 28th, the mainstream quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Hebei region is around 900 yuan/ton. The mainstream factory quotation for domestic ammonium sulfate in Shandong is around 900-940 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly fluctuations from May 29, 2023 to August 21, 2023, it can be seen that the rise and fall of domestic ammonium sulfate cycle are mixed. There was a significant decline in August, with the largest decline being -6.9% in the week ending August 14th.

The downstream compound fertilizer market has shown a positive trend this month, with prices operating on a stronger side. The prices of urea, phosphorus, and potassium, the raw materials for compound fertilizers, have increased, resulting in strong cost support. In addition, the company has sufficient waiting volume, and the focus of trading on the market has increased, resulting in a strong market in the short term.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to ammonium sulfate analysts from Business Society, the international market for ammonium sulfate has been continuously sluggish recently, and the domestic market has a strong wait-and-see mentality. Downstream procurement is just needed, and dealers should prioritize cautious operation. It is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will continue to weaken and decline in the short term.