According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the spot price of styrene in Shandong rose first and then fell in September. At the beginning of the month, the spot price of styrene in Shandong was 8746.67 yuan/ton, while at the end of the month, the spot price of styrene in Shandong was 9183.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.99%. The price has decreased by 2.48% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

The market price of styrene rose first and then fell in September. From the above figure, it can be seen that the price of styrene has been mainly increasing since July, and the increase in September was greater than the decrease. The reason for the increase is that international oil prices have risen, the pure benzene market has followed suit, and cost support is good. The inventory of styrene ports in East China has remained low. As the Double Festival holiday approaches, downstream companies are actively stocking up, and market transactions are positive, resulting in a higher styrene market. The main reason for the decline is the volatility and consolidation of the pure benzene market, with average cost support. Currently, downstream demand is mainly maintained, production and sales profits are reduced, spot transactions are poor, and there is an expectation of accumulation of styrene, leading to a decline in the market.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene rose first and then fell in September, with a rapid increase in prices in the middle and early stages, and a gradual decline in prices in the middle and late stages. On September 1st, the price was 7808 yuan/ton; On September 27th, the price was at 8180 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.76% from the beginning of the month and 3.15% from the same period last year. Downstream customers have basically completed their stock preparation, with the main downstream EB market weakening, pure benzene spot negotiations declining, and small order spot negotiations showing moderate enthusiasm and strong bargaining sentiment, resulting in overall negotiations declining.

On the downstream side, the three major downstream markets of styrene saw mixed fluctuations in September. At the beginning of this month, the average price of PS was 9466 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of PS was 9933 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 4.93% and a decrease of 5.10% compared to the same period last year. In September, the overall trend of PS prices increased first and then decreased. In the early stage, due to the support of raw material costs, the prices fell due to poor transactions in the later stage. It is expected that in the short term, domestic PS (polystyrene) may mainly experience a volatile trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of EPS ordinary materials fluctuated and increased in September. At the beginning of the month, the average quotation of EPS ordinary materials was 9850.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of EPS ordinary materials was 10323.00 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 4.80%. In September, domestic EPS prices were supported by costs, and it is expected that the domestic EPS market will mainly experience a narrow range upward trend.

The domestic ABS market fluctuated and rose in September. The overall performance of ABS upstream three materials in September was strong. The acrylonitrile market is relatively strong at a high level. Downstream devices in China are resuming work, with significant demand driven demand. Upstream goods are flowing smoothly, inventory has decreased to a low level, and propylene prices are driving up in line with the trend. Crude oil prices continue to strengthen, with stronger news support, boosting market confidence.

At present, there is a stock accumulation expectation in the styrene spot market, and downstream demand remains strong. Spot demand is weak, and there will continue to be bargain-hunting and replenishment at the end of the month. It is expected that the short-term volatility and decline in the styrene market will be the main trend.

Aluminum prices slightly declined in September

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on September 28, 2023 was 19856.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.26% compared to the aluminum price of 19610 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (September 1).

In the long term, the current price is in a sideways range after a high decline. Since May, the price has been fluctuating below 19000 yuan/ton, breaking through 19000 yuan/ton at the end of August. In September, aluminum prices fell first and then rose, with an overall upward trend of volatility.

Overview of Fundamentals

The weekly production is around 820000 tons

The domestic weekly production in September was around 820000 tons. Electrolytic aluminum supply exceeded expectations and resumed production in the third quarter. With the resumption of production of electrolytic aluminum enterprises in the southwest region, the current production capacity is at a relatively high level. Although the power cuts and production cuts in Sichuan have sparked concerns in the short term, the interference has gradually weakened due to the small scale of the reduction and the improvement in precipitation in Sichuan. At present, the operating capacity in Yunnan region is relatively high.

From a regional perspective, the price difference between aluminum in South China and East China has recently expanded significantly in China. From the perspective of the flow of goods, there is a phenomenon of arbitrage in the shipment of goods from South China to East China. It is expected that some South China holders will carry out cross regional arbitrage in the inventory of East China. In the future, the spot pressure in South China may decrease, and the East China region may show a state of accumulated inventory after the holiday, with the addition of imported goods and supplies from other regions such as South China.

Social inventory increased first and then decreased in September

In terms of social inventory, following the start of destocking in the second half of July, inventory is relatively low. In September, social inventory first increased and then decreased.

As of September 28th, the social inventory in the mainstream areas of domestic electrolytic aluminum ingots was 473000 tons. Compared to September 21st, there were 33000 tons of inventory removed. However, compared to August 31st, the inventory was 457000 tons and the accumulated inventory was 16000 tons. Based on year-on-year data, it is still at a low level in the same period of the past five years.

On September 29th, LME aluminum inventory recorded 486100 tons, a decrease of 4225 tons or 0.86% compared to the previous day; In the past week, LME aluminum inventory has increased by 3750.00 tons, an increase of 0.78%; In the past month, LME aluminum inventory has decreased by 31300 tons, a decrease of 6.05%.

Less than expected on the demand side

In terms of demand, there has not been an improvement in the orders and operating conditions of construction factories in Shandong, Guangdong and other regions, and some small and medium-sized construction profile processing enterprises have not yet received new orders. The downstream peak season effect is not as significant as expected during the peak season. At present, downstream aluminum bars and other primary processing enterprises in the aluminum industry maintain stable production during holidays, and there are basically no plans to suspend production for holidays. It is expected that the proportion of domestic aluminum water will remain stable during the festival, and the amount of ingots cast during the festival will not surge.

Future market forecast

Electrolytic aluminum production enterprises mainly maintain stable production, and the growth rate of operating capacity has significantly slowed down. Currently, aluminum ingot inventory continues to be low, which provides some support for aluminum prices. Currently, supply is sufficient, and demand is less than expected. In the peak season of the future market, demand needs to be fulfilled. It is expected that low inventory will continue to dominate the market trend in the short term, and aluminum prices will fluctuate strongly.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic EVA market has weakened and spot prices have fallen. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of September 22, the average ex factory price of EVA in China was 13633.33 yuan/ton, an increase of -2.62% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

The domestic EVA market has recently seen a decline in prices. On the supply side, the operating rate of the EVA industry has declined slightly compared to the previous period, but the current load position is still around 75%. The market supply is almost flat compared to the previous period, and factory inventory pressure has increased. The profitability of EVA polymerization plants has significantly declined, and some manufacturers have lowered their factory prices. The pressure on social inventory has increased, and the confidence of traders has been affected, leading to a decline in prices. On the demand side, it takes time to digest the early stocking of photovoltaic materials and cables. Recently, pre holiday stocking has gradually ended, and consumption has turned from strong to weak. The lagging follow-up of foam material towards terminal enterprises, low actual prices, and sluggish consumption during peak seasons have dragged down the overall demand side of EVA. The overall stocking operation on the site places orders according to demand, and companies have poor acceptance of high priced goods. Prices are dragged by the demand side and operate weakly.

Overall, the supply of EVA in the market has remained stable recently, while downstream demand for photovoltaic consumption has weakened. The demand for foaming materials has continued to be weak, causing supply pressure to rise. Overall, the company’s offer has started to decline, and merchants have a poor mentality, leading to a decline in the offer. It is expected that the domestic EVA market may continue to be weak in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong has recently risen. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1203.33 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1206.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.28%. The current price has dropped by 9.73% compared to last year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region has fluctuated and increased. From the above chart, it can be seen that the formaldehyde market has been mainly on the rise in the past two months, and this week the market continues to rise. As of September 21st, the mainstream market price in Shandong region is 1150-1260 yuan/ton. This week, the price of raw material methanol has shown an upward trend, with good cost support. The formaldehyde market has slightly improved in trading, and manufacturers have stabilized their shipments, resulting in a slight increase in the market.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market is on the rise, driven by demand, and the methanol market continues to improve, with a significant increase in order volume. The market atmosphere is relatively high, and shipments are smooth. In terms of supply and demand, there have been breakthroughs in pre holiday stocking by netizens. Methanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic methanol market is mainly characterized by high volatility.

The recent methanol market may fall, with poor cost support, weak demand from downstream sheet metal factories, and pressure on formaldehyde shipments. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society predict that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly decline in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 20th, the average price quoted by domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises was 3525.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.76% compared to last Friday (September 15th).

Recently, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market has been operating weakly. Recently, the price of raw material sulfuric acid has been running smoothly, and the raw material methanol market has been fluctuating and organizing. The cost support is average, and the supply side supply is sufficient. The downstream inquiry and procurement atmosphere is weak, and the need to wait and follow up is mainly. Some enterprises are under inventory pressure, and the transaction center of the formic acid market is declining. On the 20th, the quotation range for industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises was between 3200-3600 yuan/ton.

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that the current cost support is limited, and the supply side is sufficient. Downstream procurement is just in demand, and shippers are actively shipping. It is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market may operate weakly in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to downstream pre holiday stocking demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PP market continued to strengthen in mid September, with various wire drawing brands continuing to rise. As of September 19th, the mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 8092.86 yuan/ton, with a+4.71% increase or decrease compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: In mid September, in terms of PP raw materials, there was a good demand for propylene, with downstream devices resuming work and a significant demand pull. Upstream supply was smooth, inventory fell to a low level, and market prices quickly rose before entering adjustment. International oil prices continue to rise, coupled with strong propane production, resulting in strong cost support for oil and PDH production. Overall, polypropylene has strong cost support.

The overall trend of raw materials in all directions is strong, and the cost side provides strong support for PP. In terms of industry load, the overall industry load has recently exceeded 77%, with a narrow downward adjustment compared to the previous period. The overall supply of goods is stable, and there is sufficient supply of goods on site. In terms of demand, it has leveled off compared to the early stage, with downstream plastic weaving operating at a horizontal level of over 40%. In terms of film materials and injection molding, the operating rate of enterprises has remained around 60%, and the overall position has remained in the early stage. The stocking situation of terminal enterprises is based on demand procurement, and there is a certain resistance to high priced sources after the PP price increases.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 19th, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has increased. The mainstream quoted price of domestic producers and traders for Z30S (fiber) is around 8062.50 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of+5.22% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of -3.25% compared to the same period last year. Recently, the downstream non-woven fabric enterprises, the main force of PP fiber materials, have seen a low load increase, with an overall operating rate of around 37%. The demand for fiber materials in the market has increased compared to the previous period, and the digestion speed of non-woven end products is still acceptable. The enterprise’s efforts to replenish fiber PP have increased the industry load. But the main driving force for the increase is also cost support, and it is expected that fiber materials may enter the finishing stage in the short term.

In terms of melt blown materials, the recent melt blown PP market has been relatively strong. As of September 19th, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society is around 8200 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the increase and decrease is+1.23%, and there is a decrease of 10.55% compared to the same period last year. At present, the domestic and international news of the health incident has basically subsided, and the consumption of medical meltblown fabric materials is weak. There is also no significant boost in domestic and foreign demand. The main support for the market is the cost side, and it is expected that the melt blown material market may maintain a stronger consolidation market.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market is rising in mid September. The overall trend of upstream raw materials is strong, and the cost side provides strong support for the market. Terminal enterprises continue to operate at the previous level, with a bias towards maintaining production and a certain resistance towards high priced goods. It is expected that in the short term, the downward transmission of cost side benefits in the PP market may gradually be hindered, and the upward trend may be weakened to some extent.

Since the overall rise of the epoxy resin market in August, supported by raw materials, major enterprises have increased their prices for many times under the pressure of cost. As of August 18, the liquid epoxy resin market in East China had been delivered at 14900-15400 yuan/ton of purified water, and the solid epoxy resin market in Mount Huangshan had been negotiated to be delivered at 14700-15200 yuan/ton.

The raw material bisphenol A continues to rise, supported by the dual raw material phenol/acetone, and the mainstream market price of bisphenol A in East China has been negotiated at 12000-12100 yuan/ton. In the near future, the international crude oil market supply may continue to be tight, and its downstream product, pure benzene phenol bisphenol A, may continue to rise. Overall, they are facing a shortage of circulating resources, and are facing replenishment in the early days of the National Day holiday. Bisphenol A will continue to be strong in the short term.

The epoxy chloropropane market has been sorted horizontally, and the reference price for epoxy chloropropane in the East China market is 8500 yuan/ton. The latest reference price for raw material propylene is 7360 yuan/ton, and liquid chlorine has significantly increased compared to last week. The latest reference price is 700 yuan/ton. Fengyi Oil is still in a shutdown state, and the Jiangsu Haixing unit restarted within the week, with an overall industry operating rate of over 60%.

From the perspective of the business community, short-term raw materials will continue to operate steadily. In addition, due to the impact of stocking up before the National Day holiday, the high cost transfer of downstream PC and epoxy resin lags behind, and short-term epoxy resin will continue to rise under the support of cost.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market rose sharply this week. The average price of the Shandong market at the beginning of the week is 7175 yuan/ton, and the average price on the weekend is 7338 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.26% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.38%.

As of September 15th, the mainstream prices of propylene in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/ September 15th

Shandong region/ 7350-7400 yuan/ton

Northeast region/ 6950-7050 yuan/ton

East China region/ 6900-7000 yuan/ton

2、 Analysis and Review

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the propylene market in Shandong has surged sharply this week. This week’s demand is good, downstream devices are resuming work, and demand is clearly pulling. Upstream goods are flowing smoothly, inventory has dropped to a low level, and propylene prices are driving up in line with the trend. During the cycle, crude oil prices have strengthened from weak to strong, with stronger news support, boosting market confidence.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Propylene analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that there are plans to restart units in the future region, and supply is expected to increase. The demand side remains stable, and it is expected that there will be little room for propylene to continue rising next week, with a narrow consolidation operation.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of September 14, 2023, the reference price of n-butanol in the Shandong region of China was 9966 yuan/ton. Compared with September 10 (reference price of n-butanol was 9800 yuan/ton), the price increased by 166 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.70%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (9.10-9.14), the overall market situation of n-butanol in the Shandong region of China showed a slight upward trend. This week, some regions in China have shut down and repaired n-butanol plants. The overall supply of n-butanol in the field is expected to decrease, and the overall pressure on the supply side is relatively low. With no pressure on supply, the downstream procurement enthusiasm of n-butanol has also increased, and the willingness to restock has increased. Therefore, with the joint support of both supply and demand, the center of gravity of the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong region has moved upward as a whole, with a price increase of about 100-200 yuan/ton during the week. As of September 14th, the domestic market price of n-butanol in Shandong region is around 9800-10000 yuan/ton.

Aftermarket analysis of n-butanol

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol on the market is good, and the n-butanol industry has a positive attitude. The downstream demand transmission is good. The n-butanol data analyst of the Business Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic Shandong region’s n-butanol market will mostly operate steadily and improve. The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to specific news changes on the supply and demand side.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of fluorine chemical products has mainly increased since September, with significant increases in the prices of raw materials such as fluorite and hydrofluoric acid. The specific fluctuations are as follows:

Fluorite, also known as “fluorite”, is a strategic mineral and one of the scarce resources in China. It is a source product of the fluorine chemical industry. Since September, the price of fluorite has continued to rise. The upstream mining of fluorite is tight, and outdated mines will continue to be phased out. In terms of adding new mines, mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, and some mines are undergoing safety hazard inspections, The difficulty of starting a fluorite mine has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has restricted the operation of fluorite enterprises, making it difficult for fluorite flotation enterprises to improve their operations. The shortage of spot supply of fluorite has affected the continuous rise of fluorite market prices.

Hydrofluoric acid: Recently, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid has increased. As of 2013, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price was 10316.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.82% in September. Some units are still in shutdown recently, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has not changed much. The order situation of manufacturers for hydrofluoric acid has slightly increased. In addition, the market price of sulfuric acid has risen significantly in the early stage, and the price of sulfuric acid is still at a high level, The hydrofluoric acid market is driven higher by the rising prices of raw materials such as fluorite and sulfuric acid.

Refrigerant: The downstream refrigerant industry has made a good start in September, with strong support for raw materials. In addition to quota expectations, refrigerant manufacturers have increased their reluctance to sell. The operating rate of the refrigerant industry has not changed much, and the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high. Downstream procurement just needs to follow up, and some enterprises’ quotas are digested in advance. The monthly average quantity of remaining quotas is relatively small, and the price trend of R22 has increased. The domestic R134a manufacturers are operating at low loads, and the price of R134a is rising. Some companies have a strong reluctance to sell, and there is currently no mentality to sell low-priced orders. Some businesses have a rising price trend, and the current cost is firm. Enterprises’ reluctance to sell has escalated. The current market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 25000-26000 yuan/ton. Supply and cost factors have driven refrigerant companies to have a clear intention to sell, and the refrigerant market trend has increased

Aluminum fluoride: In September, the price trend of aluminum fluoride was temporarily stable, maintaining a price of 9425 yuan/ton. The contradiction between supply and demand for aluminum fluoride was acute, with severe overcapacity. In addition, downstream demand was poor, resulting in a sluggish market price for aluminum fluoride. Recently, about 50% of aluminum fluoride enterprises have started construction, with downstream procurement mainly focused on rigid demand and two-way low sentiment. The demand for aluminum fluoride is still weak, and the price trend of aluminum fluoride is mainly stable.

Cryolite: The domestic market trend of cryolite is temporarily stable, and the raw materials are subject to environmental and safety requirements. There is a shortage of spot goods. Although the prices have slightly decreased in the early stage, cost support is still there. Cryolite enterprises are mainly wait-and-see, and some manufacturers adjust according to their own shipment situation. The terminal downstream inventory is weak, and the demand for cryolite is weak, resulting in a weak and stable cryolite market.

Prediction: It is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines in the later stage, some mines will be shut down for safety inspections, and the operating rate of the fluorite industry will be difficult to increase. The confidence of fluorite enterprises in raising prices remains strong, and fluorite prices will continue to rise. Downstream hydrofluoric acid products are significantly supported by fluorite. In addition, the export of the refrigerant industry has rebounded, and the mentality of refrigerant manufacturers has gradually improved. The start of production has been sluggish. Overall, there is significant positive support, and the fluorine chemical market will continue to rise in the later stage.