Price trend

In October, the domestic ABS market stabilized after a decline, and spot prices of various brands fluctuated after being adjusted. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 31, the average price of ABS sample products was 11100 yuan/ton, a decrease of -7.5% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: The high load in the ABS industry in the early stage continued, resulting in abundant supply of goods on the site, a significant increase in inventory positions, and poor profitability of the enterprise, resulting in losses. After a month of gradual negative reduction, the domestic operating rate has decreased by nearly 20% to 72%, and the dragging effect of the supply side on the spot market has decreased. The supply pressure has slightly eased.

In terms of raw materials: In October, the overall decline of ABS upstream three materials was significant, with a slight decline in the acrylonitrile market during the early high operating period and a slight decline in the later period. The price of raw material propylene fluctuated and fell, and the cost support for acrylonitrile weakened; The main downstream construction has significantly declined, and demand has weakened in the face of acrylonitrile support; In the first half of the month, acrylonitrile prices remained strong due to low inventory levels and cost support, but in the latter half of the month, prices slightly declined as demand weakened.

In October, the domestic butadiene market first fell and then rose. After the holiday, crude oil prices fell sharply and the market was once weak. In the middle of the day, the price of the external market rose, and the export window boosted the market atmosphere. At the same time, some devices were parked out of plan, resulting in a reduction in market supply. Adding to the maintenance plans of some enterprises at the end of the month, the factory prices of production enterprises have continuously increased, and the butadiene market has continued to rise.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the styrene market price fell in October. The main reason for the decline is the international crude oil price drop, the pure benzene market fluctuating and falling, and the cost support is average. Currently, downstream demand is mainly maintained, production and sales profits are reduced, spot transactions are poor, and there is an expectation of styrene inventory accumulation. It is expected that the market may continue to decline.

In terms of demand: In October, downstream factories of ABS, including the main terminal home appliance industry, saw a decrease in stocking enthusiasm, and the inventory digestion during the early peak season further dragged down trading. After the fall in ABS prices in late October, a portion of the stock was released for immediate needs, with the demand side mainly focused on maintaining production and providing poor support to the market.

Future Market Forecast

In October, the overall performance of the upstream three materials of ABS rose and fell, with weak overall support for the cost side of ABS. The high starting point of the petrochemical plant has dropped, and some supply pressures have eased. Demand side consumption is poor, and merchants are often bearish about the future market. It is expected that the ABS market may maintain a weak and stable consolidation trend in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of refrigerant R22 on October 31 was 217666.67.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.24% compared to the average price of 21500.00 yuan/ton on October 1 and a year-on-year increase of 16.61%

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of refrigerant R134a on October 31 was 27833.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.05% compared to the price of 26000.00 yuan/ton on October 1 and 7.74% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In early October, the price of refrigerant R22 raw materials rose again, while the price of chloroform slightly increased. The price of hydrofluoric acid continued to rise, and with the support of rising raw material costs, manufacturers successively raised the factory price of R22, driving the market price of refrigerant R22 to rise slightly. In mid to late October, the domestic price of trichloromethane rose slightly and fell slightly, with an overall decrease of 2.12% during the month. The overall increase in hydrofluoric acid prices stabilized and then remained stable, with an overall increase of 8.03% during the month. Downstream raw material costs fluctuated and stabilized, and R22 market prices subsequently remained stable and advanced.

In October, domestic hydrofluoric acid prices continued to rise, but after stabilizing in the latter half of the month, they slightly declined. Overall, the price of trichloroethylene rose by 8.03% during the month, and with the support of higher raw material costs, manufacturers raised the factory price of R134a at the beginning of the month, driving a comprehensive rebound in the domestic R134a market price. With the fluctuation and stabilization of raw material costs, coupled with the rapid increase in refrigerant prices, which to some extent suppressed terminal consumption, some manufacturers have slightly lowered their factory prices to ensure shipment, driving the domestic refrigerant R134a price to rise slightly in late October and then move forward steadily.

In terms of raw materials, the overall increase in domestic hydrofluoric acid prices in October stabilized and then moved forward slightly. The sustained high operation of hydrofluoric acid prices will provide strong support for the bottom of the refrigerant market prices in the future.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Refrigerant analysts from Business Society believe that the increase in raw material costs is stabilizing, and the market supply and demand are stable. It is expected that the prices of domestic refrigerants R22 and R134a will continue to remain at the current level and undergo slight consolidation in November.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, TDI prices in East China continued to decline this week. On October 29th, the average market price in East China was 17900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton compared to the price of 18400 yuan/ton on October 23rd, a decrease of 2.72%, and a decrease of 0.74% compared to the beginning of the month.

This week, domestic TDI prices continued to decline, supply side supply increased, business sentiment weakened, and shipping intentions increased. However, terminal performance was mediocre, downstream demand was weak, and cargo holders’ shipments were hindered. The weekly quotation continued to decline, market trading was sluggish, and the TDI market was weak and downward.

The price of upstream toluene fell, and the market was weak during the week. On October 29th, the domestic average price of toluene was around 6960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.38% compared to the price of 7130 yuan/ton on October 23rd. Since October, the overall international crude oil price has decreased, and the cost support for toluene has weakened. Downstream has entered a off-season, with weak market inquiries and insufficient demand support. In addition, toluene production has been stable, and supply has increased. Under the influence of multiple bearish factors, the negotiated price for toluene in the market has decreased.

After market analysis, TDI data analysts from the Business Society believe that domestic TDI supply is stabilizing, downstream demand is weak, factory news is quiet, trade market confidence is insufficient, and the sentiment of buying up or not buying down is gradually affecting the demand side. Under the supply and demand game, it is expected that the short-term TDI market will weaken and consolidate, and specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, at the beginning of the month, Shanxi’s industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was quoted at 5550.00 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, Shanxi’s industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was quoted at 5350.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.60%. The current price has decreased by 13.18% compared to last year.

potassium nitrate

In October, the domestic potassium nitrate market fell. From the above chart, it can be seen that the recent potassium nitrate market has been fluctuating and declining for two consecutive months, and the market has continued to decline this month. The raw material market is weak and volatile, with poor cost support, abundant supply of potassium nitrate, and prices following the trend of cost decline. According to statistics from Business Society, mainstream domestic manufacturers of potassium nitrate have recently quoted 5100-5500 yuan/ton (for reference only), and the prices vary depending on the procurement situation.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall trend of potassium chloride market in October was fluctuating and declining. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge have stabilized at low levels. The downstream market of potassium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened, with primary demand for procurement. International potassium fertilizer prices continue to decline. Potassium chloride analysts from Business Society believe that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly decline in the short term.

At present, the circulating supply of potassium chloride in the domestic market is limited, and there is an expectation of a rise in potassium chloride, with good cost support. It is expected that the price of potassium nitrate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of bromine has slightly increased this week. At the beginning of the week, the price of bromine was 24200 yuan/ton. On October 26th, the price of bromine was 24300 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.41%, a year-on-year decrease of 51.2%. On October 25th, the bromine commodity index was 85.26, an increase of 0.35 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 65.23% from the cycle’s highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27), and a 44.70% increase from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29th, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

Bromine prices have risen this week, with mainstream quotes in the Shandong market of around 24000-25500 yuan/ton, indicating a slight upward trend in market prices. The supply side has been relatively stable recently. Bromine companies are reluctant to sell and are cautious in shipping. The downstream flame retardants and intermediate industries are still mainly purchasing on demand in the near future, and the price of tetrabromobisphenol A has increased, providing support for the price of bromine.

In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have risen, with an average market price of 926.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. On October 26th, the average market price was 930 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.36% and a year-on-year decrease of 31.11%. The price of raw material sulfur has slightly increased this week.

It is predicted that there will be a slight increase in the price of bromine in the near future, with upstream sulfur prices operating well, stable supply of bromine production in the near future, and slightly better demand in the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine. However, the overall wait-and-see sentiment is still dominant. It is expected that the short-term consolidation of bromine prices will depend on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price data

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 23, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 7969.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.73% compared to October 16 at 8109.00 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha is around 7850-8000 yuan/ton.

As of October 23, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined straight-run naphtha was 7899.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.74% compared to October 16 at 8039.00 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight-run naphtha was around 7750-7950 yuan/ton.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Recently, the market for refined naphtha has declined, and the gasoline and diesel markets have entered the off-season. The restructuring lacks substantial benefits, and a small amount of demand for ethylene cracking has been released. The overall demand for naphtha terminals is weak, with sluggish trading and refineries reducing prices for shipments.

Upstream: The international crude oil market has been fluctuating recently. On a macro level, the Federal Reserve hinted that interest rate hikes may be suspended in November, easing demand concerns. On the supply side, the market’s focus is on the conflict between Palestine and Israel. The Islamic world’s resistance to Israel has escalated, and Iran’s foreign minister has called for an oil embargo on Israel, which has led to geopolitical turmoil and increased the risk premium for crude oil. In addition, the United States’ agreement to lift sanctions exemptions for Venezuela for six months has not quelled supply side tensions.

Downstream: According to the monitoring of Business Society, the price of toluene has significantly decreased, with a price of 7130 yuan/ton on October 23, a decrease of 8.24% compared to 7770 yuan/ton on October 16; The price of mixed xylene has significantly decreased, with a price of 7510 yuan/ton on October 23, a decrease of 5.42% compared to 7940 yuan/ton on October 16. The price trend of PX is temporarily stable, and as of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of xylene is 9100 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Energy analysts from Business Society believe that the international crude oil market is volatile, and the gasoline and diesel markets have entered the off-season. There is no significant positive trend in the local refining naphtha terminal, and market trading is cautious. It is expected that the local refining naphtha market will slightly decline in the near future.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8217 yuan/ton on October 16, and the average price on October 20 was 8180 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation decreased by 0.45%.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426H) was 9425 yuan/ton on October 16, and the average price on October 20 was 9307 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation decreased by 1.25%.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) was 8800 yuan/ton on October 16th, and the average price on October 20th was 8725 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation decreased by 0.85%.

Polyethylene prices continued to decline this week. The international crude oil fluctuates strongly, providing some bottom support for the polyethylene market. The shutdown and maintenance of enterprises have decreased, and the supply of polyethylene is expected to increase. The demand for agricultural film is in peak season, and the market procurement is mainly based on hard demand, and the transaction is still acceptable. The demand for packaging film during the E-commerce Festival is expected to be positive. In order to facilitate transactions, merchants often sell at reduced prices, with polyethylene prices mainly falling.

On October 20th, polyethylene l2401 rose 0.32% to close at 7954..

On the cost side, there is some support for polyethylene, and agricultural film is in the peak demand season, but overall demand is weak compared to the same period last year. In order to facilitate transactions, merchants are often actively offering profits and shipping. It is expected that polyethylene will be mainly adjusted in a narrow range.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of October 17th, the price of PET water bottle grade has been weak, with a narrow downward trend. The current average price is 7160.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.69% compared to the same period last week. The market supply and demand are balanced, and the mainstream price is currently around 7200 yuan/ton.

This week, the domestic PET price was weak, with a decrease of 0.69% compared to the same period last week. Currently, the focus of negotiations is relatively low, with the mainstream price around 7200 yuan/ton. Downstream restocking is on demand, and the purchasing atmosphere is average. Manufacturers mainly offer discounts and take orders, while upstream costs lack support.

Rubber and Plastic Commodity Index: On October 16th, the rubber and plastic index stood at 683 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 35.57% from the cycle’s highest point of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and an increase of 29.36% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

PET analysts from Business Society believe that the PET market is expected to operate in a narrow and weak range in the short term, with prices slightly decreasing and maintaining around 7200 yuan/ton.

1、 Price data

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 16th, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 8109.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.93% from October 6th at 8269.00 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha is around 7900-8200 yuan/ton.

As of October 16th, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined straight-run naphtha was 8039.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.83% compared to October 6th at 8189.00 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight-run naphtha was around 7800-8100 yuan/ton.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Recently, the market for refined naphtha has been fluctuating and declining. Terminal restructuring is just needed to release, and a small amount of demand for ethylene cracking is released. However, merchants mainly consume inventory. During the National Day holiday, international crude oil has significantly declined, and the post holiday crude oil market volatility has intensified the wait-and-see sentiment in the domestic naphtha market. The market is just in need of trading, and operations are cautious.

Upstream: The international crude oil market has been fluctuating recently. Affected by geopolitical turmoil, supply concerns have intensified. On the macro level, the resilience of US economic data has raised expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, and the negative sentiment still exists. On the supply side, the market’s focus is on the conflict between Palestine and Israel. Israel and Palestine are not oil producing areas, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has not yet affected the actual supply of crude oil. Concerns have slightly eased. In the short term, the situation on the mainland is volatile, and oil prices may intensify volatility, with an increase in amplitude.

Downstream: According to monitoring by Business Society, the price of toluene has significantly decreased, with a price of 7770 yuan/ton on October 16th, a decrease of 5.36% compared to 8210 yuan/ton on October 6th; The price of mixed xylene has significantly decreased, with a price of 7940 yuan/ton on October 16th, a decrease of 6.48% compared to 8490 yuan/ton on October 6th. The trend of PX has declined, with a factory price of 9100 yuan/ton on October 16th, a decrease of 4.21% compared to the price of 9500 yuan/ton on October 6th.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Energy analysts from Business Society believe that the international crude oil market is volatile, and there is no significant positive news for the local refining naphtha terminal. Market trading is cautious, with demand being the main focus. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and it is expected that the local refining naphtha market will be mainly weak in the near future.

Aluminum fluoride prices have risen this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 13th, the domestic quotation for aluminum fluoride was 11100 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.30% compared to the price of aluminum fluoride on October 8th, which was 10850 yuan/ton; The price of aluminum fluoride has increased by 9.36% compared to 10150 yuan/ton on October 1st. The prices of raw materials such as fluorite and hydrofluoric acid have fluctuated and increased, resulting in higher costs. This week, the price of aluminum fluoride has risen.

Raw material prices have risen this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 13th, the price of fluorite was 3768.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.34% compared to October 8th, when the price of fluorite was 3718.75 yuan/ton; The price of fluorite increased by 6.16% compared to 3550 yuan/ton on October 1st. As of October 13th, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 11500 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.44% compared to 11450 yuan/ton on October 8th; The price of hydrofluoric acid increased by 8.66% compared to 10583.33 yuan/ton on October 1st. Affected by safety accidents in fluorite mines, the supply of fluorite ore is tight, the price of fluorite is rising, and the raw materials for hydrofluoric acid are insufficient. In addition, downstream customers are actively purchasing, leading to an increase in the bidding prices of large downstream hydrofluoric acid factories. In terms of commencement: due to limited supply of raw materials, the production of hydrofluoric acid enterprises has decreased, and the supply of hydrofluoric acid is insufficient. The prices of raw materials such as fluorite and hydrofluoric acid have increased, resulting in rising costs. The support for the future price increase of aluminum fluoride has increased.

Market Overview and Forecast

Analysts from the fluoride aluminum industry at the Business Society believe that the prices of raw materials such as hydrofluoric acid and fluorite have fluctuated and increased, leading to increased cost support for fluoride aluminum; The supply of fluorite is tight, and there is a shortage of raw materials for aluminum fluoride. The operating load of aluminum fluoride enterprises has decreased, and the supply of aluminum fluoride has decreased. In the future, with rising costs and reduced supply, the support for the rise of aluminum fluoride is increasing, and it is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will fluctuate and rise in the future.