Price trend

In mid November, the domestic PA66 market showed a narrow decline. According to data monitoring from Business News Agency, the mixed benchmark price of PA66 in China was 21333.33 yuan/ton on November 17th, a decrease of -0.78% compared to the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Recently, PA66 has taken on the high market in the early stage and the market has generally remained stable. In mid November, the spot prices of various brands saw a narrow decline. In terms of supply, the overall load of the domestic PA66 industry remained above 65% for the entire month, which was basically flat compared to the previous period. The production line situation of the enterprise has remained stable with minor changes, and the overall inventory position is relatively low, with strong supplier support. Terminal enterprises still focus on maintaining production while stocking up on demand, while the demand side has a moderate support for spot goods. On the upstream side, the domestic adiponitrile market is weak and fluctuating. In terms of hexamethylene diamine, the current price is still acceptable due to the impact of previous price increases by international large factories. The cost side’s boost to the PA66 market mainly comes from hexamethylene diamine. At present, the market performance has rebounded and the initial price of PA66 has remained stable.

Future Market Forecast

In mid November, the spot price of PA66 fell narrowly. The price of raw materials has weakened slightly, providing general support for the cost side of PA66. The load of PA66 enterprise is almost horizontal, and the inventory position is low. The demand side still focuses on maintaining production, and it is expected that PA66 may continue to operate in a narrow range in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, as of November 16th, the average price of high-quality power type lithium iron phosphate was 59400 yuan/ton. Recently, the price of lithium iron phosphate has continued to decline, with a decrease of 2.94% compared to the same period last week and a decrease of 1.66% compared to the beginning of this week.

Lithium iron phosphate has been mainly operating in a weak position in recent times, with prices continuing to be low. Downstream market demand is not growing as fast as production capacity, and supply market sentiment is low. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. Currently, enterprise inventory is high, and overall market consumption is slow. Downstream restocking is mainly based on demand, and the lithium battery market is operating under comprehensive pressure.

Upstream lithium carbonate prices continue to be low, futures prices continue to decline, supply and demand pressure still exists, operating rates are high, inventory increases, downstream demand is insufficient, purchasing willingness is not high, supply and demand game, pressure downward trend.

Analysts from Business Society’s lithium iron phosphate believe that upstream lithium carbonate is operating under pressure, with prices continuing to be low and a significant decline. The cost side support is insufficient, and in terms of demand, downstream enterprises have a weak willingness to stock and mainly purchase according to demand. The transaction atmosphere is cold, and many hold a wait-and-see attitude. In the short term, the focus of negotiations is low, making it difficult to boost prices.

Since November, the overall domestic dimethyl carbonate market has shown a downward trend followed by a stable trend. Currently, there is insufficient effective support on the market for dimethyl carbonate, and the overall price of the dimethyl carbonate market is in a low consolidation operation. As of November 14, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market price is around 3900-4200 yuan/ton, and the lower price is around 3650 yuan/ton.

In terms of demand: Currently, the follow-up of new orders from downstream polycarbonate factories for dimethyl carbonate is limited, and the purchasing sentiment of downstream electrolyte factories continues to be cold. The overall improvement in demand is poor, and the support for dimethyl carbonate is limited.

On the supply side: Currently, the early maintenance equipment for dimethyl carbonate is still in a shutdown state, and the overall production and capacity utilization rate in the site have decreased. However, due to insufficient demand, the overall supply side of dimethyl carbonate is still relatively abundant.

In terms of cost: The raw material epoxy propane market is weak, and the cost support for dimethyl carbonate is also limited.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

Overall, the current positive support for the dimethyl carbonate market is still weak. According to the dimethyl carbonate data analyst from Business Society, in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market prices will mostly be weak and narrow range adjusted, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

Product Name: Urea

Latest price (November 13th): 2551.67 yuan/ton

On November 13th, the comprehensive price of domestic urea slightly decreased, with a decrease of 38.33 yuan/ton compared to November 10th, a decrease of 1.48%, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.01%. The prices of upstream anthracite (washing medium blocks) and liquefied natural gas have slightly decreased, resulting in insufficient cost support. Downstream agricultural demand is weak, with industrial demand being the main focus. Board and melamine manufacturers are generally operating, while the operating rate of composite fertilizer plants has decreased. Urea enterprises are operating at a high level and have sufficient supply of urea. Multiple bearish factors led to a downward trend in urea prices.

In the future, it is expected that the domestic urea market price may fluctuate slightly, with an average market price of around 2530 yuan/ton.

Cobalt prices fluctuated and fell in November

According to the cobalt market analysis system of the Business Society, as of November 10th, the cobalt price was 261300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.10% compared to the cobalt price of 266900 yuan/ton on November 1st. The cobalt price in October was stimulated by the news of cobalt storage, which led to a significant increase in cobalt prices. However, the good news of cobalt storage in late October was not there. In addition, the growth of new energy vehicle consumption slowed down, resulting in poor demand in the cobalt market and a slight decline in cobalt prices. In November, cobalt prices fluctuated and fell.

Domestic sales of new energy vehicles increased in October

According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 989000 and 956000 units respectively, with year-on-year growth of 29.2% and 33.5%, and a market share of 33.5%. From January to October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 7.352 million and 7.28 million units respectively, with year-on-year growth of 33.9% and 37.8%, and a market share of 30.4%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased year-on-year, but the growth rate has slowed down. The demand for cobalt in the market has increased, but the growth rate may not meet expectations.

VR consumption in the domestic market was sluggish in the third quarter

According to market research firm CINNO Research, the domestic VR consumer market was sluggish in the third quarter of 2023, with a total sales volume of 100000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 28.9% and a month on month decrease of 35.5%. The fourth quarter will enter the peak season of e-commerce shopping such as the “Double Eleven”, but the performance of the VR market is still not optimistic. VR market consumption is sluggish, 3C electronic product consumption is poor, cobalt market demand is poor, and the pressure of cobalt price decline is increasing.

Overview and outlook

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, the stimulus from the national collection and storage news is no longer there, and the support from the rise in cobalt prices is difficult to sustain. The performance of the new energy vehicle market is less than expected, the VR consumer market is sluggish, the consumption of 3C electronic products market is declining, and the demand for cobalt in the market is poor. In the future, demand is poor, and the downward pressure on cobalt prices is increasing. Cobalt prices have slightly declined, but the cost support for metal cobalt still exists, and cobalt prices are difficult to fall below 250000 yuan/ton. It is expected that cobalt prices will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 8th, the average quoted price of 85% industrial grade formic acid enterprises in China was 3400 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price on November 1st and an increase of 3.55% compared to the same period last year.

Since November, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market has seen significant stability and small fluctuations. Enterprises have flexibly adjusted their quotations based on their own situation and stored some low-priced goods. On November 8th, the quotation range for industrial grade 85% formic acid was between 3100-3500 yuan/ton.

Price influencing factors:

Supply and demand side: Recently, downstream enterprises have adopted a wait-and-see attitude, with average enthusiasm for inquiry and procurement. The positive impact on the shipment of formic acid in the market is limited, and the market trading atmosphere is flat. Some holders are offering discounts for shipment.

Cost side: At the beginning of the month, the upstream sulfuric acid price remained stable, while the upstream methanol operated weakly and steadily, resulting in insufficient support for the formic acid market. Recently, the cost has increased, coupled with a good enthusiasm for downstream procurement, and the price of sulfuric acid has slightly increased. Recently, the price of upstream methanol has fluctuated and increased, and the cost has been supported by the formic acid market.

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that currently, the upstream sulfuric acid price is stable, while the upstream methanol price is relatively strong. The cost is still supported by the formic acid market, and downstream companies need to follow up. Enterprises are actively shipping, with average supply and demand support. It is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market will be mainly stable in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of November 7th, the average price of high-quality rubber grade white carbon black in China was 6033.33 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of white carbon black declined narrowly, and the overall price remained stable this week. Currently, the mainstream price is around 6000 yuan/ton.

This week, the market price of white carbon black remained stable, with a mainstream price of around 6000 yuan/ton. The negotiation atmosphere was decent, with downstream procurement being the main demand and average demand. The enthusiasm for stocking up was not strong, and manufacturers were mainly willing to offer discounts and take orders. The number of new orders was limited.

Chemical Index: On November 6th, the chemical index stood at 866 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 38.14% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 44.82% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Business Society’s white carbon black analyst believes that in the short term, the white carbon black market is stable and weak.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the auction price of crude benzene for the week from October 30 to November 6, 2023 was lowered, with 6703.75 yuan/ton last weekend and 6598.75 yuan/ton this weekend, a decrease of 1.57%.

In terms of crude oil: As of November 3rd, international crude oil futures fell. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $80.51 per barrel, a decrease of $1.95 or 2.4%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was 84.89 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 1.96 US dollars or 2.3%. The supply tension caused by the situation in the Middle East has eased.

The factory price of Sinopec pure benzene and the listed price of Sinopec pure benzene will continue to be 8050 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7800 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 8050 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7673 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7800 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 8050 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this week. On October 30th, the price of pure benzene was 7900 yuan/ton, and on Friday (November 3rd), the price of pure benzene was 7920 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.25% compared to last week and 11.67% compared to the same period last year.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen a positive trend in recent times.

From the perspective of the industry chain, the trend of the pure benzene industry chain during the week was somewhat volatile, with a limited overall fluctuation range. The pure benzene in the external market went down during the week, but the decline was limited, and the price did not change much during the week. The pure benzene market fluctuates within a narrow range, and the changes in the hydrogenation benzene market are relatively limited. Currently, the market price in East China is between 7900 to 8000 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of about 50 yuan/ton compared to last week. Sinopec’s prices have temporarily stabilized during the week, and the market mentality is relatively stable.

The overall change in the pure benzene industry chain this week is limited, and the hydrogenation benzene market follows a narrow range of fluctuations. The overall fluctuation of the industry chain is relatively small, and the auction prices of crude benzene were mostly slightly lowered during the week, while downstream procurement remained on demand. This week, the Shanxi region implemented a price of 6500-6550 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 70-80 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, coking enterprises have had good sales recently, with a slight increase in business operations. The overall supply of crude benzene has not changed much. In terms of demand, the recent operating rate of hydrogenation benzene enterprises has not changed much, and there is still a demand for crude benzene. However, some units have plans to restart in the future, and the supply will slightly increase in the future. Overall, the expected increase in supply and demand for crude benzene in the future market is currently limited by the high volatility of crude oil trends. The market mainly focuses on changes in supply and demand, and it is expected that the trend of the industrial chain will be relatively stable in the short term, with a narrow volatility trend remaining the main focus.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, nickel prices have slightly declined this week. As of November 3rd, the spot nickel quotation was 147900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.4% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 26.6%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, in the past 12 weeks, nickel prices have fallen by 8% and risen by 3%, and the recent decline in nickel prices is still unstoppable.

Nickel industry chain

On the macro level, in the early hours of this Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced its decision to maintain interest rates unchanged during the interest rate meeting, but Powell’s speech was hawkish. After the meeting, US stocks rebounded significantly, and oil prices also fell after the Federal Reserve meeting, reaching a three-week low. This is mainly due to market concerns about a slowdown in global economic growth and concerns about an oversupply of crude oil. In addition, trade tensions have also put some pressure on oil prices. The US dollar and US bond yields have declined, and data released on Wednesday showed an increase in job vacancies in the US in September, indicating a continued tightening of the labor market, which has played a supportive role in the economy. On the domestic side, the latest PMI data for the manufacturing industry in October, which is lower than the boom and bust line, indicates that the recovery trend of the manufacturing industry is still difficult to be optimistic, and market demand is insufficient. On November 2, the central bank and foreign exchange heavyweights spoke out, insisting on deepening financial reform, maintaining and increasing market liquidity, boosting market confidence, and internal metal prices fluctuated.

In terms of supply: Indonesia has increased production capacity for intermediate products and nickel plates, continuously releasing domestic electrolytic nickel production capacity, gradually expanding production reduction efforts in steel mills, and reducing inventory pressure.

In terms of demand: The overall downstream demand is relatively weak, and nickel sulfate is currently in a weak market.

In terms of imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s refined nickel imports in September were 5542.97 tons, a decrease of 19% month on month and 42% year-on-year. Russia is the top supplier, importing 2909 tons from Russia that month, a decrease of 14.5% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%. From January to September this year, a total of 69984 tons of refined nickel were imported, a decrease of 39.5% compared to the same period last year.

In summary, the Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates unchanged, easing market tension, and the weakening US dollar has boosted the non-ferrous metal market. However, nickel supply is loose, downstream steel mills are reducing production, and demand is weak. It is expected that nickel prices will remain weak in the short term.

Price trend

In October, the domestic ABS market stabilized after a decline, and spot prices of various brands fluctuated after being adjusted. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 31, the average price of ABS sample products was 11100 yuan/ton, a decrease of -7.5% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: The high load in the ABS industry in the early stage continued, resulting in abundant supply of goods on the site, a significant increase in inventory positions, and poor profitability of the enterprise, resulting in losses. After a month of gradual negative reduction, the domestic operating rate has decreased by nearly 20% to 72%, and the dragging effect of the supply side on the spot market has decreased. The supply pressure has slightly eased.

In terms of raw materials: In October, the overall decline of ABS upstream three materials was significant, with a slight decline in the acrylonitrile market during the early high operating period and a slight decline in the later period. The price of raw material propylene fluctuated and fell, and the cost support for acrylonitrile weakened; The main downstream construction has significantly declined, and demand has weakened in the face of acrylonitrile support; In the first half of the month, acrylonitrile prices remained strong due to low inventory levels and cost support, but in the latter half of the month, prices slightly declined as demand weakened.

In October, the domestic butadiene market first fell and then rose. After the holiday, crude oil prices fell sharply and the market was once weak. In the middle of the day, the price of the external market rose, and the export window boosted the market atmosphere. At the same time, some devices were parked out of plan, resulting in a reduction in market supply. Adding to the maintenance plans of some enterprises at the end of the month, the factory prices of production enterprises have continuously increased, and the butadiene market has continued to rise.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the styrene market price fell in October. The main reason for the decline is the international crude oil price drop, the pure benzene market fluctuating and falling, and the cost support is average. Currently, downstream demand is mainly maintained, production and sales profits are reduced, spot transactions are poor, and there is an expectation of styrene inventory accumulation. It is expected that the market may continue to decline.

In terms of demand: In October, downstream factories of ABS, including the main terminal home appliance industry, saw a decrease in stocking enthusiasm, and the inventory digestion during the early peak season further dragged down trading. After the fall in ABS prices in late October, a portion of the stock was released for immediate needs, with the demand side mainly focused on maintaining production and providing poor support to the market.

Future Market Forecast

In October, the overall performance of the upstream three materials of ABS rose and fell, with weak overall support for the cost side of ABS. The high starting point of the petrochemical plant has dropped, and some supply pressures have eased. Demand side consumption is poor, and merchants are often bearish about the future market. It is expected that the ABS market may maintain a weak and stable consolidation trend in the short term.