Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA66 market has shown a stable trend. According to data monitoring from Business Society, the domestic benchmark price of PA66 mixture was 20500 yuan/ton on January 12th, with a price increase or decrease of -0.16% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

This week, the PA66 market remained stable with minor fluctuations, and spot prices stopped falling at the beginning of the week. The operating rate of the production line has remained low, with the overall industry load stabilizing at around 61%. During the week, the market supply of goods was tight, the inventory position was average, the pricing operation of enterprises was firm, and the support from suppliers was still sufficient. Downstream textile, electrical, and modification enterprises mainly maintain production as their main source of goods, with pre holiday stocking centered around weak and rigid demand, and weak support for spot goods on the demand side. On the upstream side, hexamethylenediamine was initially supported by high prices from international major factories, but recently, the supply side has seen all the positive news, and the price has generally entered a sideways trend. The market price of adipic acid has risen, providing stronger support for PA66. Overall, the cost side has strengthened its support for the PA66 market. At present, the supply and demand side of the market is weak, and the overall price of PA66 is sideways.

Future Market Forecast

This week, the spot price of PA66 remained stagnant. The price of raw materials increases and stabilizes, strengthening the support for the cost of PA66. PA66 enterprise has a low level of horizontal load, and the inventory position is still acceptable. The demand side still relies mainly on maintaining production, and it is expected that the weak supply-demand pattern before the holiday will not change. The PA66 market may continue to remain stagnant in the future.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of January 9, 2023, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 8833 yuan/ton. Compared with January 7 (reference price of n-butanol was 8716 yuan/ton), the price increased by 117 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.34%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that as we enter this week (1.5-1.9), the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong region has experienced an upward trend. In some regions, the maintenance of n-butanol units has led to a partial reduction in the supply side of n-butanol. The supply side has provided support for the n-butanol market, and coupled with downstream demand for n-butanol stocking, the downstream overall stocking and replenishment enthusiasm is good. With supply and demand support, the n-butanol market has ushered in an upward trend, and factories have actively increased the shipment price of n-butanol, with an increase of 100-200 yuan/ton. As of January 9th, the domestic market price of n-butanol in Shandong region is around 8800-8900 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of n-butanol in East China is around 9100-9200 yuan/ton.

Future analysis

At present, the trading atmosphere in the domestic n-butanol market is mild, and the mentality of the industry is positive. The n-butanol data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mostly operate steadily with a strong bias, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of isobutyraldehyde has slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market increased from 8233.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8433.33 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 2.43%, and the weekend price increased by 25.25% year-on-year. On January 7th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 42.81, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 59.45% from the highest point in the cycle of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 42.13% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, mainstream manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde have seen a slight increase in their quotations this week, resulting in low inventory.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 6868.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6638.25 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 3.35%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.45% in weekend prices. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. Due to the impact of supply and demand, the price of isobutyraldehyde has been negatively affected.

From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market situation of new pentanediol has slightly increased, with the market price rising from 9800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9875 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 0.77%. The weekend price has increased by 8.12% year-on-year. The market situation of neopentyl glycol has slightly increased, and downstream demand has increased, which has a positive impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

In mid to late January, the trend of isobutyraldehyde market may fluctuate and rise. The downstream market for new pentanediol has slightly increased, and downstream procurement enthusiasm has increased. The upstream propylene market is showing an upward trend, with increased cost support. Business Society isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and increases due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of January 5, 2024, the factory price reference for domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate is 4033 yuan/ton. Compared with January 1 (reference price for dimethyl carbonate is 4066 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.82%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that this week (1.1-1.5), the overall domestic dimethyl carbonate market showed a weak and declining trend. This week, some regions in China have started operating dimethyl carbonate plants, and the overall supply of dimethyl carbonate has increased. The pressure on the supply side has also increased. However, the boost in downstream demand for dimethyl carbonate is not significant, and the overall trend of strong supply and weak demand in the market has emerged. This weekend, the price of dimethyl carbonate has begun to slightly decline under pressure, with a downward range of about 50-100 yuan/ton. As of January 5th, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate is based on around 3700-4100 yuan/ton. The reference price for higher prices is around 4300 yuan/ton.

Analysis of future market trends

At present, the trading atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate on the exchange is relatively light, and downstream wait-and-see sentiment is strong. New orders are cautious in trading. According to the dimethyl carbonate data analyst from Business Society, in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market will mainly adjust within a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market price of isobutyraldehyde increased significantly in December. The market price of isobutyraldehyde increased from 7333.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8233.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 12.27%, and the price at the end of the month increased by 27.97% year-on-year. On December 28, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 41.62, an increase of 0.16 points from yesterday, a decrease of 60.58% from the highest point in the cycle of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 38.18% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to present)

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic isobutyraldehyde manufacturers increased significantly in December, and the inventory levels of manufacturers were average.

Upstream support is average, downstream demand is good

From a cost perspective, the upstream propylene market for isobutyraldehyde fluctuated and fell in December. The price of propylene decreased from 7105.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 6868.25 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 3.34%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 5.27% year-on-year. The weakening of upstream cost support has a bearish impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde.

From the demand side, the downstream market for neopentyl glycol in December first fell and then rose. The market price of neopentyl glycol increased from 5279 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9800 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a growth rate of 0.77%. At the end of the month, prices increased by 7.30% year-on-year. The downstream market has slightly increased, and downstream manufacturers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing isobutyraldehyde.

Small fluctuations and gains in the future market

In mid to early January, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The downstream market for new pentanediol has slightly increased, and downstream manufacturers are more proactive in purchasing isobutyraldehyde. The upstream propylene market is showing an upward trend, with increased cost support. Under the contradiction of supply and demand, the product trend is on the rise. Business Society’s isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and increases due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

Commodity Market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream market price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China slightly declined in December. On the 31st, the market reported around 13220 yuan/ton, and on the 1st, it reported around 13300 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 0.60%. This month, the raw material acrylonitrile market has declined, the acrylic acid market has risen, and the cost of polyacrylamide has fluctuated. Enterprises in the main production areas are operating normally, and the market has abundant spot supply. Downstream demand has not increased, and the current mainstream market of polyacrylamide is still weak and consolidating.

Raw material acrylonitrile: In December, the acrylonitrile market saw a narrow decline. As of December 31st, the bulk price of acrylonitrile in the market was 9812 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.88% from the initial 10000 yuan/ton of the month. The price of raw material propylene has weakened, and the cost support for acrylonitrile has weakened; One of the main downstream industries, ABS, has stabilized in the early stages of operation and decreased in the later stages, with demand facing a weakening of acrylonitrile support at the end of the month; In December, the production of acrylonitrile slightly increased but demand support slightly weakened, and the price of acrylonitrile narrowly decreased.

Raw material acrylic acid: The acrylic acid market fluctuated and rose narrowly in December. In the first half of the year, the propylene raw material market experienced a slight decline, but there is still cost pressure in the acrylic acid market. The rise in the downstream butyl acrylate market has boosted the acrylic acid market to a certain extent, and some companies have raised prices. In the off-season of demand, downstream inquiries and procurement enthusiasm are average, and market transactions are mainly in demand. In mid month, there was an increase in market supply, but the demand side was poor. Downstream enterprises mainly consumed inventory, and new market transactions were limited. Some holders offered to sell at a discount. In the latter half of the month, cost pressure has increased, with some factories shutting down, supporting the mentality of enterprises to raise prices. Downstream is in the traditional off-season of consumption, and inquiries and purchases are mainly in demand. As the end of the month approaches, the market is mainly stable, and some enterprises have slightly lowered their prices based on their own situation. The market atmosphere is average.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the domestic liquefied natural gas prices fell first and then rose in December. In the first half of December, raw gas prices significantly decreased, cost support weakened, and liquid prices concentrated in a decline. Rainy and snowy weather is approaching in many parts of China, leading to poor transportation and restricted market supply of goods. There is a large amount of inventory in the market, and downstream demand is weak. Liquid factories have a strong attitude towards inventory reduction and are willing to reduce prices, resulting in a continuous decline in liquid prices. In terms of sea and gas, some receiving stations have lowered their prices. In the second half of December, there was a slight increase in raw gas prices, increasing cost support and driving up liquid prices. After snowfall, traffic flows smoothly. Frequent cold air attacks in China have been affected by cooling weather in many areas, leading to a significant increase in downstream replenishment demand and a continuous rise in liquefied natural gas prices. In terms of sea and gas, some receiving stations have raised prices.

Market forecast: In December, the overall focus of raw material cost prices will decline, the overall fuel market will decline, and the cost of polyacrylamide will decline. On the supply side, enterprises in the main production areas have normal production and sufficient market supply; On the demand side, downstream procurement and supply remain flat, market transactions remain stable, and actual transaction changes have not yet been significantly followed up. It is expected that weak consolidation will continue to dominate in the short term.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of December 28, 2023, the factory price reference for domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate is 4066 yuan/ton. Compared with December 1 (reference price for dimethyl carbonate is 4200 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 134 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.17%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in December, the overall market situation of dimethyl carbonate in China showed a fluctuating and declining trend. At the beginning of the month, the dimethyl carbonate market remained stable and operated steadily, with little change in supply and demand on the market.

During the mid month period, the dimethyl carbonate market gradually approached a low level amidst small fluctuations in price. The on-site production of dimethyl carbonate is relatively low. With the slow shipment of goods in the market, some factories have reduced their supply pressure and raised the price of dimethyl carbonate narrowly. However, due to the drag of demand, the upward trend of the dimethyl carbonate market is difficult to maintain, and the market price will eventually have a significant decline.

At the end of the month, due to the slow transmission of supply and demand, the dimethyl carbonate market remained stagnant and continued to decline slightly, resulting in a weak overall market situation. As of December 28th, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate is around 3800-4150 yuan/ton, with lower prices around 3650 yuan/ton and higher prices around 4300 yuan/ton.

Analysis of future market trends

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the dimethyl carbonate market is average, and the overall performance of the downstream of dimethyl carbonate is poor. The demand for downstream electrolytes and solvents is generally weak, and the support for dimethyl carbonate is limited. As the end of the year approaches, the buying atmosphere on the market is average, and the contradiction between supply and demand on the market still exists. The dimethyl carbonate data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market will mostly be weak and consolidate and operate, The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand news.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the bulk list of Business Society, the price of bromine decreased in December. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of bromine was 25300 yuan/ton. On December 27th, the average market price of bromine was 24800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.98% and a year-on-year decrease of 44.64%. On December 26th, the bromine commodity index was 87.02, a decrease of 0.35 points from yesterday, a decrease of 64.51% from the highest point in the cycle of 245.18 points (2021-10-27), and an increase of 47.69% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29th, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

Bromine prices have weakened and declined this month. The mainstream market price in Shandong region is currently around 24500-25000 yuan/ton. In mid to early December, the operation was temporarily stable, and the supply side has been affected by cooling recently, resulting in a decrease in seawater bromine production. However, manufacturers have sufficient inventory. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries are still mainly purchasing on demand recently, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. At the end of December, the price of bromine decreased. Although the production of bromine has recently decreased due to weather conditions, the inventory of enterprises is relatively sufficient. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine have recently made moderate purchases.

Regarding sulfur: The overall price of sulfur increased in December. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 1060 yuan/ton. On December 27th, the average market price was 1106.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 4.04% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.86%. The operation of the sulfur refinery unit is normal, the market supply of goods is stable, the demand for terminal winter storage is slowing down, and downstream procurement is becoming stable. Market trading is mainly based on demand, and the refinery is actively shipping.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of bromine has recently declined overall this month and is currently maintaining a consolidation trend. Bromine production in seawater is gradually decreasing as the temperature decreases. However, manufacturers have sufficient inventory, and downstream flame retardants and intermediates industry support is average. The market is mainly cautious in procurement, and it is expected that the short-term price of bromine may consolidate the operating market, depending on downstream market demand.

Aluminum prices increased by 4.51% in mid to late December

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market on December 26, 2023 was 19216.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.51% compared to the aluminum price of 18386.67 yuan/ton on December 11.

In the long term, the current price is in a sideways range after a high level decline. Since May, it has been fluctuating below 19000 yuan/ton, and by the end of August, it has exceeded 19000 yuan/ton. In September, aluminum prices first fell and then rose. In October, the center of gravity of aluminum prices fell back to around 19000 yuan/ton and fluctuated. In November, aluminum prices were weak and began to recover after mid December, returning to the front line of 19000 yuan/ton.

The recent increase in aluminum prices is due to

1. Clear inventory reduction and low social inventory levels

After the start of destocking in the second half of July, inventory remained relatively low. As of December 25th, the mainstream social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in China was 414000 tons, with 149000 tons of inventory removed compared to November 30th. Based on year-on-year data, it is at a low level in the same period of nearly five years.

2. Strong cost support for alumina

The explosion at the fuel depot in the capital of Guinea has raised concerns in the market about the supply of bauxite. It is reported that Chinese alumina companies are highly dependent on Guinea’s ore, with a total of 91.104 million tons of bauxite imported from Guinea from January to November, accounting for 70.2% of the total import volume. In addition, domestically, due to the heavy pollution weather in the north, the Shandong alumina plant has been shut down for ten days. The supervision and management of mining in Shanxi region is relatively strict, and the mines in Sanmenxia area of Henan province have not yet resumed production, resulting in a shortage of ore supply in Shanxi and Henan provinces. The price of alumina is firm.

Future market forecast

The positive cost side combined with the elimination of explicit inventory is expected to have a high probability of strong aluminum price fluctuations in the short term.

Overview of ethylene oxide prices in December

In December, the price of ethylene oxide decreased. According to data from Business Society, as of December 25th, the average price of ethylene oxide in the domestic market was 6400 yuan/ton; From a regional perspective, the epoxy ethane market in East China is priced at 6400 yuan/ton externally; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the South China market is 6500 yuan/ton; The listed price of epoxy ethane in North China is 6400 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the central China market is 6400 yuan/ton.

Overview of the ethylene oxide industry chain

The main downstream polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer is affected by poor terminal demand, and the demand has remained weak and stable recently with little change in operating load. The demand for ethylene oxide is relatively stable, and the short-term price support is average.

Raw material end

The price of raw material ethylene has begun to show a weak market consolidation, and the cost of ethylene oxide is generally supported. As of December 22nd, the estimated CFR China price for ethylene in the port is around $850-870 per ton.

The price of ethylene oxide may remain weakly stable in December

The demand for downstream products of ethylene oxide remains stable, and recently, ethylene oxide has been operating steadily. However, as profits expand towards negative values, there is an expectation of a decrease in the operating rate of ethylene oxide, and the downward space gradually narrows. It is expected that the price of ethylene oxide will remain weak and stable in the short term.