In January, precious metal prices first fell and then rose, reaching a high level horizontally

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 31, 2024, the spot market price of gold was 481.10 yuan/gram, an increase of 0.17% compared to the spot market price of gold at the beginning of this month (January 1), which was 480.29 yuan/gram. During the month, the gold price first fell and then rose, and the overall high level fluctuated widely.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the average silver market price on January 31, 2024 was 5952.33 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.25% compared to the average silver market price of 5967.33 yuan/kg at the beginning of this month (January 1).

From November 2022 to early February 2023, precious metal prices significantly increased. From March to the end of April, due to the impact of the US banking crisis, precious metal prices once again entered a period of skyrocketing. Silver prices began to fall in May, while gold remained relatively strong. In June, gold prices hit a high level and silver prices began to rise. After July, gold prices became stronger. In mid to late September, precious metal prices were affected by news from the Federal Reserve, leading to a high level correction. In October, due to geopolitical factors, the risk aversion sentiment rose and continued to rise. In early November, the high range was weak and fluctuated horizontally. At the end of the month, precious metal prices resumed, and silver saw a stronger monthly increase than gold. Silver prices slightly declined in December, while gold prices remained relatively strong. In January, precious metal gold and silver fluctuated horizontally at high levels.

Macro fundamentals for January

Overseas macro:

1. Markit’s manufacturing PMI unexpectedly expanded in January, and the service industry also rebounded.

2. The manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone rebounded beyond expectations in January, reaching a nine month high.

Domestic macro:

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on January 31st, the domestic comprehensive PMI output index in January was 50.9%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, continuing to exceed the critical point, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises continue to expand. In January, the non manufacturing business activity index was 50.7%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, above the critical point, indicating that the non manufacturing industry continues to expand steadily. In January, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the manufacturing industry was 49.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a rebound in the level of manufacturing prosperity.

Logic of Precious Metals Market in January

Factors affecting the fluctuation of precious metal prices in January:

1. The policy factors of the Federal Reserve and the dynamic changes in market expectations of when the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates.

2. Geopolitical factors have intensified the geopolitical tension in the Middle East region.

3. Due to financial attributes, the willingness of speculative funds to take profits has increased after the price of precious metals reached a new high.

In January, we analyzed the reasons for the high level horizontal fluctuations in precious metal prices, as follows:

Negative:

The price of precious metals is already at a relatively high level, and there is a profit taking motive in the capital market.

favourable:

1. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike cycle is gradually coming to an end and entering a rate cut cycle, which logically favors interest free assets such as precious metals. According to CME’s “Federal Reserve Observation”, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in the range of 5.25% to 5.50% in February is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 2.6%. The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged by March is 33.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 65.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 1.7%. But debt reduction has become one of the tightening policies.

2. Geopolitical factors such as the Red Sea incident provide an expectation of hedging demand on an emotional level.

In February, we believe that there is a high probability of sideways fluctuations in precious metal prices.

Geopolitical factors have led to sustained high demand for central bank purchases worldwide. It is reported that the net purchase volume of global central banks in 2023 was 1037 tons, only a decrease of 45 tons from the record breaking 1082 tons in the previous year. Geopolitical factors such as the Red Sea incident may lead to uncertainty in inflation data, and also make the future monetary policy path of European and American central banks uncertain. We preliminarily believe that the policy path may still remain ambiguous in the short term and gradually become clear after March. It is expected that there will be a high probability of sideways fluctuations in February.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the market price of isopropanol increased in January. On January 1st, the average price of isopropanol in China was 7890 yuan/ton, and on January 30th, it was 8170 yuan/ton. The price increased by 3.55% during the month.

The market price of isopropanol increased in January. In the first ten days, the market price of acetone rose rapidly, confidence in isopropanol increased, the market improved, and inquiries from enterprises increased. The manufacturer’s quotation was relatively firm and upward. In mid month, market trading slowed down, and the isopropanol market temporarily stabilized and consolidated. In the latter half of the year, the isopropanol market remained strong and upward, with downstream restocking at the end of the year and immediate orders. As of now, the majority of isopropanol market quotations in Shandong region are around 7900-8100 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 8300-8500 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, overall in January, the domestic acetone market price first rose and then fell, and overall, the price increased. On January 1st, the average price of acetone was 7062.5 yuan/ton, and on January 30th, the average price was 7225 yuan/ton. The price increased by 2.3% during the month. At present, the intention of terminal factories to restock has slowed down, and the trading atmosphere in the market has slightly declined with the market downturn. Transactions are limited, and it is expected that acetone will maintain a strong adjustment state.

In terms of propylene, the market average in early January was 6868 yuan/ton, with an average price of 6930.75 yuan/ton on January 30th, a monthly increase of 0.91%. In January, the upstream of propylene showed mixed ups and downs, with average cost support, while downstream derivatives showed mixed ups and downs. The main downstream of polypropylene slightly increased, but production was not high, suppressing demand for propylene. The propylene analyst from the Chemical Branch of Shengyishe believes that the current wait-and-see atmosphere in the propylene market is becoming stronger, and downstream entry into the market is cautious. It is expected that the price center in the short term will be unstable and there is a possibility of a downward trend.

3、 Future Market Forecast

An isopropanol analyst from the Chemical Branch of Shengyishe believes that in January, raw materials acetone and propylene rose one after another, providing strong cost support. As the end of the year approaches, downstream and traders are restocking more at the end of the year, and the market trading situation is good. It is expected that the isopropanol market will temporarily stabilize, consolidate and operate in the short term by the end of the year.

Last week (January 22-28, 2024), the market for viscose short fibers remained stable and strong, with manufacturers mainly shipping and prices showing signs of upward adjustment. The overall stability of downstream cotton yarn is relatively strong, with an overall increase in sales. The prices quoted by yarn factories have slightly increased, and discounts have been slightly reduced. The operating load has slightly decreased to around 66%, and inventory has been basically maintained.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, last week (January 22-28, 2024), the overall price of viscose short fibers remained stable and increased. As of January 28th, the domestic factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber is 13060 yuan/ton, an increase of 220 yuan/ton or 1.71% compared to last week.

Cost wise: Last week (January 22-28, 2024), the price of raw material dissolved pulp slightly decreased, but cost support remains strong. The price of imported broad-leaved dissolved pulp is around 880 US dollars per ton, and the price of coniferous dissolved pulp is around 910 US dollars per ton. At present, the production of dissolved slurry in Hunan and Shandong facilities in China is priced at around 7400 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease in price. Actual orders are being negotiated.

Supply and demand: Last week (January 22-28, 2024), the operating rate of the adhesive short fiber industry was basically maintained, and the overall industry load is currently around 82.8%. Downstream procurement enthusiasm has improved, actively replenishing goods, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers has slightly decreased. The human cotton yarn factory mainly consumes inventory, and the enthusiasm for replenishment has increased. The human cotton yarn is stable and relatively strong, resulting in an overall increase in demand. The supply of low-priced goods in the market has slightly decreased, but the overall improvement is still limited, and market confidence is still insufficient.

Downstream cotton yarn market

Last week (January 22-28, 2024), the overall market for human cotton yarn remained stable and strong, with yarn mills offering higher prices and slightly reduced discounts. Overall shipments were average, and the operating load of human cotton yarn slightly decreased to around 66%, while inventory remained basically maintained. Most cases of slight losses maintain production, and the market lacks confidence in the later stage. As of January 28th, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first-class) was 17325 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton or 0.87% compared to last week.

Future Market Forecast

The price center of raw material dissolution pulp is strong, with strong cost support. Downstream cotton yarn factories are approaching the holiday period, and their enthusiasm for replenishment is not high. The trading atmosphere in the viscose short fiber market will be light. The market lacks confidence in the later stage and is bearish on the market before the Spring Festival. After last week’s price adjustment, analysts from Business Society predict that the market for viscose short fibers and artificial cotton yarn will continue to stabilize and operate in the short term.

This week, the price of ethylene oxide slightly increased, with a 1.54% increase during the week. According to data from Business Society, as of January 26th, the average market price of ethylene oxide in China was 6600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week; From a regional perspective, the epoxy ethane market in East China is priced at 6600 yuan/ton externally; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the South China market is 6600 yuan/ton; The listed price of epoxy ethane in North China is 6600 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the central China market is 6600 yuan/ton.

Overview of the ethylene oxide industry chain

The main downstream polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer enterprises have low inventory, relatively stable production, and relatively stable demand for ethylene oxide. The rest of the downstream enterprises mainly operate steadily; From the recent upstream and downstream product prices, it can be seen that downstream prices have started to rise, increasing profit margins and strengthening support for the price of raw material ethylene oxide in the short term.

Since mid to late December 2023, the price of ethylene glycol has remained strong, and some factories have begun to operate the appropriate conversion of ethylene glycol.

Short term supply may slightly increase, but prices are unlikely to improve in January

The demand for downstream products of ethylene oxide remains stable, and recently, ethylene oxide has been operating steadily. The supply side is affected by factors related to production conversion, resulting in an improvement in supply expectations. The main downstream industries are starting construction, and it is expected that the price of ethylene oxide will fluctuate strongly in the short term.

Recent price trends of calcium carbide

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region is temporarily stable this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China was 3000 yuan/ton, and the weekend price decreased by 22.08% year-on-year.

Insufficient upstream support and weakened downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have remained stable this week, with manufacturers operating at a low level and average inventory levels.

The upstream blue charcoal market has slightly declined, while the downstream PVC market prices continue to weaken. This weekend, the price of Shenmulan charcoal was around 1060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from the beginning of the week, indicating insufficient cost support. The PVC market price fluctuated and fell this week, dropping from 5550 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5538 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.22%. Weekend prices fell by 10.92% year-on-year. The PVC spot market is still in good condition, and the trading situation is average. The manufacturer’s quotation is mainly stable. Considering that the end of the year is approaching, some small processing plants are considering holiday issues, downstream demand is slowing down, enterprise inventory is high, and actual transactions are cautious.

Calcium carbide may experience a volatile decline in the future market

In late January, the calcium carbide market may experience narrow fluctuations and mainly decline. The downstream PVC market has slightly declined, downstream demand has weakened, raw material blue charcoal prices have slightly declined, and cost support is insufficient. In the future, it is expected that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will fluctuate and fall narrowly in late January, with consolidation being the main trend.

This week, plasticizer DOTP fluctuated and fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 22nd, the price of DOTP was 12037.50 yuan/ton, a volatile decrease of 1.33% compared to January 15th when the price of DOTP was 12200 yuan/ton. The price of raw material isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, resulting in a decrease in costs. This week, the price of DOTP has fluctuated and fallen.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 22, the price of isooctanol was 12900 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 0.19% compared to the price of isooctanol on January 15, which was 12925 yuan/ton. Large plasticizer manufacturers are in urgent need of procurement, resulting in weaker transactions of isooctanol. The price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, and the support for rising raw materials has weakened. The downward pressure on DOTP has increased. Isooctanol manufacturers are offering discounts to sell, leading to an increase in transactions and increased support for the rise of isooctanol in the future.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen this week, and the cost of plasticizers has decreased; Isooctanol manufacturers are offering discounts to sell, resulting in active transactions and an increase in transactions. DOTP costs are expected to rise. In the future, the cost of DOTP is expected to rise, and it is expected that DOTP prices will consolidate strongly.

Price trend

This week, the domestic EVA market has remained stable with minor fluctuations, and spot prices have loosened within a narrow range. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 19th, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 11433.33 yuan/ton, which is the same as the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

The price of EVA in the domestic market has remained stable and fluctuated slightly this week. On the supply side, the load level of domestic EVA enterprises has significantly decreased, and the operating rate has been lowered to around 75%, leading to a tightening of market supply. Petrochemical plants have a strong willingness to support the market, and EVA suppliers have decent support for spot goods.

The demand side of EVA performed average this week. The trading situation on the exchange is mainly focused on low-end offers, while the overall stock preparation and follow-up of downstream enterprises are average. The buying logic of the buyer camp remains unchanged, and there is resistance to high priced sources. Prices are pulled by markets in different directions and are steadily decreasing.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the price of EVA has remained stagnant and weak this week. The raw material market provides moderate support for EVA spot prices. The industry load has been reduced, and downstream demand is average. The confidence of operators is supported by the high prices of petrochemical plants, but as the end of the year approaches, the expectation of increased consumption in the future is low, and logistics is gradually slowing down. It is expected that the EVA market may remain weak and stagnant in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic PTA market has recently experienced a slight rebound, with a market price of 5796 yuan/ton in East China as of January 17th, an increase of 1.36% compared to January 11th.

Since January, there has been little change in the PTA supply side, and the industry operating rate has remained around 82%. With the restart of a 2 million ton PTA plant in South China on January 15th, products have been produced and the industry load has increased to around 84%. The pressure of sufficient supply of goods still exists. But in the future, the expectation of load reduction and maintenance increased, leading to a rebound in PTA prices.

In the crude oil market, the disturbance in the Middle East continues, and the situation is not clear. There is no sign of cooling in the short term, and oil prices still receive significant support. However, the US oil inventory has accumulated, and the market is once again concerned about economic weakness, which has significantly dragged down oil prices. Therefore, under the long short game, crude oil prices are mainly volatile, but there is still support for PTA costs. As of January 16th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $72.40 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $78.29 per barrel. In addition, the downstream polyester operating rate remains around 84%, which is still stronger than expected, and there is still demand for PTA.

Business Society analysts believe that although the maintenance period for the Spring Festival is approaching, the downstream polyester and terminal weaving industries will experience an increase in the decline in operating load, and the demand for PTA will decrease. However, the international crude oil volatility adjustment and the expected decrease in PTA supply have resulted in a decent short-term performance of PTA prices.

Recent trends in urea prices

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the urea market price in Shandong Province slightly increased this week. The urea price dropped from 2508.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2466.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 1.66%. The weekend price fell by 10.14% year-on-year. On January 15th, the urea commodity index was 114.50, a decrease of 0.23 points from yesterday, a decrease of 24.83% from the highest point in the cycle of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 105.94% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

Insufficient cost support, weakened downstream demand, and sufficient urea supply

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream price of urea in Shandong has slightly declined this week.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chains, it can be seen that the urea upstream market has dropped significantly this week: the price of liquefied natural gas has dropped significantly, from 5406 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5202 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 3.77%, and the weekend price has dropped by 14.94% year-on-year. The price of anthracite coal has stabilized at a low level, with the price of Yangquan anthracite coal (washing medium block) at 960 yuan/ton this weekend; The price of liquid ammonia has dropped significantly, from 3450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3250 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 5.80%, and a year-on-year decrease of 22.43% over the weekend. The significant drop in upstream raw material prices has provided insufficient support for urea prices.

From a demand perspective: Agricultural demand has weakened, while industrial demand is average. Agriculture has entered the off-season. Composite fertilizer, board, and melamine enterprises generally start construction, with a focus on procurement for immediate needs. The downstream price of melamine in urea has slightly decreased this week, dropping from 7475 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7450 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.33%. From the perspective of supply, some enterprises have completed maintenance, resulting in a further increase in daily urea production and sufficient supply.

Slight fluctuation and decline in the future market

In mid to late January, the urea market in Shandong may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. Business Society urea analysts believe that the upstream market of urea has significantly declined, and the cost support for urea is insufficient. Downstream industrial demand is average, while agricultural demand is weakening. The daily production of urea is around 180000 tons, with sufficient supply. In the future, urea may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and decline.

Recent trends in sulfuric acid prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the domestic sulfuric acid market prices have dropped significantly this week. The price of sulfuric acid has dropped from 247.5 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 232.50 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 6.06%, and the weekend price has dropped by 16.96% year-on-year.

Upstream market slightly rises, downstream procurement enthusiasm weakens

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have dropped significantly this week, and the inventory levels of manufacturers are average.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the sulfur market in the upstream has slightly increased, with sulfur prices rising from 926.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 936.67 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 1.08%, and a year-on-year decrease of 27.95% over the weekend. The upstream market has slightly increased, with increased cost support. The downstream ammonium phosphate market has slightly declined, with market prices dropping from 3286.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3253.33 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 1.01%, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.96% over the weekend. The downstream titanium dioxide market has slightly declined, with market prices dropping from 16400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 16350 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 0.30%, and a year-on-year increase of 2.62% over the weekend. Overall, the downstream market for sulfuric acid has slightly declined, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is weak.

Slight fluctuation and decline in the future market

In late January, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. The upstream sulfur market has slightly increased, with average cost support. The downstream market for monoammonium phosphate and titanium dioxide has slightly declined, and downstream customers have weakened their enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. The product trend is declining under the contradiction of supply and demand. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by supply and demand, raw materials, and other factors, and the price of sulfuric acid may fluctuate slightly and fall.