1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on July 9th was 956 yuan/ton, which is a decrease of 1.88% compared to the average price of 974 yuan/ton on July 1st.

2、 Market analysis

Entering July, the domestic ammonium sulfate market saw a slight pullback after a decline in price. At present, the enterprise is operating steadily and the market supply is sufficient. The international market situation has not improved yet, and domestic manufacturers are cautious and watching. Recently, the price of domestic ammonium sulfate has slightly increased, with downstream procurement mainly based on demand. As of July 9th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 940 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation for ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 930-960 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Shengyishe Ammonium Sulfate, the recent market trend of ammonium sulfate has seen a narrow upward trend. At present, downstream delivery is cautious and the market has a strong wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic ammonium sulfate price will mainly consolidate and operate within a narrow range.

According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, at the end of June, supply tightened and the hydrogen peroxide market rose. On June 24th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 920 yuan/ton. On June 28th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 950 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.26%.

Supply tightening, hydrogen peroxide market rising

At the end of June, a fire accident occurred in the hydrogen peroxide oxidation tower of Tianjin Bohua Chemical Development Co., Ltd., involving an annual production capacity of 100000 tons of hydrogen peroxide. The supply is tightening, and the overall hydrogen peroxide market is rising. The overall quotation is 850-1000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of about 50 yuan/ton. Among them, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Shandong region is about 850 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 20 yuan/ton. The average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Hebei region is 850 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 20 yuan/ton. The average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Anhui region is about 1000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 50 yuan/ton.

Chemical analysts from Business Society believe that in July, hydrogen peroxide manufacturers began to shut down for maintenance, and there is still room for an upward trend in the hydrogen peroxide market in the future.

After a continuous decline of nearly a month and a half, the domestic acrylonitrile market price has recently stopped falling and stabilized. The self pickup price in East China ports remains fluctuating around 9450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1350 yuan/ton from the high point in April, a decrease of 12.5%. The prices continued to decline in the early stage, mainly due to an increase in supply and weak demand. Recently, with the increase in raw material costs, some production enterprises have already incurred losses. Therefore, acrylonitrile manufacturers have a strong willingness to raise prices, and on this basis, the expectation of contract settlement for this month has also become clearer. Buying has also followed up appropriately, and the market downturn has temporarily stopped.

From the perspective of supply, some devices have undergone maintenance and pressure relief has been achieved

The capacity utilization rate of the acrylonitrile industry has once again dropped to below 80%, currently around 78%. The reduction in production alleviates the pressure of oversupply in the north and south, making factory inventory controllable and providing manufacturers with the motivation to raise prices.

Looking at the consumer market, the demand side is still weak

As the domestic supply of acrylonitrile increased in June, downstream consumption also showed a month on month growth. The operating rate of the acrylic and ABS industries has improved compared to the previous month, especially after the maintenance of large acrylic factories, the production consumption has significantly increased. At the same time, considering the maintenance of acrylonitrile plants in the north, the purchasing enthusiasm of acrylic factories has also increased. It is estimated that the domestic consumption of acrylonitrile in June will reach around 240000 to 250000 tons, an increase of 20000 to 30000 tons compared to May. Downstream large factories have stable contract purchases, so the overall inventory of acrylonitrile factories is controllable, which is also the main supporting factor for the recent slowdown in the market downturn.

But the overall downstream demand will gradually enter the off-season, and the growth trend of consumption may be difficult to continue, and there will be a weakening performance. The average operating rate of domestic ABS devices is 68.80%, a month on month decrease of 0.24%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.24%. Overall, the demand for acrylonitrile is still weak, which is also the main reason why the market has only stopped falling, and the market still lacks sufficient and effective rebound momentum.

From the perspective of the propylene raw material market, cost increases

In June, there was an occasional increase in maintenance of some external PDH propylene units, leading to local supply shortages and driving up propylene prices. At present, the price of propylene in the Shandong market has reached 7275 yuan/ton, an increase of 475 yuan/ton from early June. For acrylonitrile factories that outsource raw materials, the cost of propylene raw materials has increased by nearly 500 yuan/ton. At the same time, due to the continuous decline in acrylonitrile prices, production gross profit has significantly decreased, and single product calculations have shown a loss state. Due to increased cost pressure, acrylonitrile manufacturers have shown a stronger willingness to enter the market. As a result, the industry’s capacity utilization rate has not been further improved, and some units have reduced their load.

Overall, the domestic propylene market is mainly operating weakly in the short term, with average cost support. In the latter half of the year, businesses are mainly observing the settlement of large acrylonitrile factories, while maintaining essential procurement on the market. With no obvious news to boost, the market transaction focus has not changed much. It is expected that the mainstream negotiated price for self pickup of cans from East China ports will be around 9300-9500 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from May 24th to June 7th, the domestic ethanol price increased from 5987 yuan/ton to 6007 yuan/ton, with a weekly price drop of 0.33%, a month on month increase of 0.12%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.63%. The domestic ethanol market has rebounded and fluctuated. With the maintenance of some equipment, there is not much pressure on holders to ship, and delivery vehicles are still queuing up. The trading volume is good, and the price remains high.

On the cost side, imported corn continues to arrive at the port, and the domestic corn market has sufficient supply. The price of wheat in Linchi continues to decline, and the substitution effect for feed is becoming stronger. Downstream demand is more cautious, and many bearish factors are suppressing it. It is expected that the domestic corn market price will continue to rise in June without sufficient momentum, and the overall situation will fluctuate slightly at the current level. The cost of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, there are significant differences in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions; Less than 40% of construction in East China has started; About 80% of the construction in Northeast China has started; The operating rate in southern and southwestern regions is about 20%. The supply side of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, the demand for Baijiu continues to be weak, with limited efforts to boost the market; The market for chemical ethyl ester procurement is smooth, with a focus on price reduction procurement; Methyl ethyl ester production is stable with little fluctuation. Short term ethanol demand is affected by bearish factors.

In the future, it is predicted that at present, the cost side and the supply side are supported by favorable factors, Baijiu and chemical procurement are not good, and the receiving price has declined month on month. Ethanol analysts from the Supply and Demand Game Business Society predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market will mainly consolidate.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic butadiene market in May first fell and then rose. From May 1st to 31st, the domestic butadiene market price fell from 11712 yuan/ton and then rose to 11875 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.39% during the cycle, the maximum amplitude of 7.10%, and a year-on-year increase of 78.84%.

In the first half of the month, downstream demand followed up after the holiday, and spot resources were slightly tight, with strong support from supplier prices. In addition, there were many premium transactions from northern bidding sources, which boosted the spot market. But recently, the prices of external markets have fallen, and there have been rumors of low-priced transactions, which has affected the weak mentality of market merchants, resulting in low intention prices for inquiries and a stalemate in short-term supply and demand performance.

In mid month, some production enterprises in certain regions saw an increase in export sales, while merchants had clear expectations for domestic production growth in the later period. The downward trend in the market intensified the cautious attitude of downstream inquiries, resulting in a weak transaction atmosphere and further affecting the downward pressure on supplier prices.

In the latter half of the month, the domestic butadiene market was volatile, with a slight weakening after the market rose. However, as the supplier’s supply of goods is replenished through export, the support from the supply side has weakened. In addition, downstream inquiries are more cautious, and the market transaction atmosphere has slightly weakened.

As the end of the month approaches, production enterprises have repeatedly raised their factory quotations, leading to a strong upward trend in the domestic butadiene market. The wide rise in downstream synthetic rubber has also brought a significant boost to the butadiene market.

On the cost side, international crude oil prices showed a downward trend in May, and there was positive progress in the ceasefire negotiations between Palestine and Israel in the early days. The US Energy Information Agency also lowered its global demand forecast, but Saudi Arabia’s view on the demand outlook has improved. In mid month, the market was concerned about the pressure of high interest rates on the economy and demand, but some economic data improved, and the instability of the geopolitical situation remained, with international oil prices falling first and then rising. In the latter half of the year, the geopolitical situation continued to ease, and market concerns about the economic and demand prospects were difficult to resolve. Coupled with the increase in US commercial crude oil inventories, the overall international oil price continued to decline.

In terms of naphtha: The market for naphtha has bottomed out and rebounded. The gap in terminal demand is concentrated in the direction of local refining and restructuring, with refineries purchasing essential goods and relatively tight supply. The relevant gasoline market has not followed suit, suppressing market sentiment. The naphtha market continues to rise but is hindered, consolidating at high levels. At present, merchants are resisting high priced sources of goods, refineries are actively raising prices, and market activity is decreasing. The cost of butadiene is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, the listed price of butadiene by various sales companies of Sinopec has been raised twice to 12000 yuan/ton. The 30000 ton/year butadiene unit of Liaoyang Petrochemical is operating normally, with 400 tons of goods being sold through bidding for export at a bottom price of 11000 yuan/ton; The transaction price is 11380 yuan/ton.. The supply of butadiene is influenced by favorable factors. The 160000 ton/year butadiene extraction unit of Fushun Petrochemical is operating stably, with a bidding price of 11100 yuan/ton for 180 tons of goods for export; The transaction price is 11300-11400 yuan/ton.

On the demand side, driven by the continuous increase in butadiene prices and the favorable futures market, the synthetic rubber market has shown a broad upward trend, while the enthusiasm for speculation in the spot market has increased. The demand for butadiene is influenced by favorable factors.

In terms of external trading: As of the close on May 30th, the price of Asian butadiene remained stable: FOB South Korea reported $1335-1345 per ton; China CFR News 1365-1375 USD/ton; The external price of butadiene in Europe remains stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at $1145-1155 per ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 1070-1080 euros/ton.

In the future market, it is expected that some devices will restart, and production may increase in the near future. Although the price of synthetic rubber in the downstream has increased, most downstream profits are inverted, and demand still needs to be followed up. Business Society Butadiene Analyst predicts that the domestic butadiene market will mainly consolidate after the rise.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic cyclohexanone market rose in May. From May 1st to 31st, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market increased from 9602 yuan/ton to 9906 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.52%, with a year-on-year increase of 6.95%.

In the first half of the month, the domestic price of cyclohexanone stabilized and operated, with high fluctuations in pure benzene after the holiday, and the cost pressure remained unchanged. Downstream chemical fibers and solvents are mostly purchased on demand, with stable and abundant spot supply in the market. High priced shipments are hindered, and the market is undergoing consolidation and operation.

In mid month, there is an expectation of a recovery in the domestic cyclohexanone market. The raw material pure benzene is operating strongly, resulting in increased cost pressure. Downstream purchases are made on demand, and the market situation is consolidating

In the latter half of the month, the domestic cyclohexanone market saw a narrow rise, with raw material pure benzene fluctuating at high levels and significant cost pressure. Downstream chemical fiber procurement was concentrated, and the atmosphere for cyclohexanone transactions was still good. Low price offers gradually decreased, and the focus of transactions increased.

On the cost side, the price of pure benzene in the domestic market has risen significantly, and the short-term supply tension in the market is difficult to change. At the end of the month, overseas factories caught fire, and the impact on pure benzene production is still uncertain. However, for the long-term scarce domestic pure benzene market, it still stimulates prices to continue to rise. As of May 31st, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shengyishe is 9075.50 yuan/ton. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price trend of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is influenced by positive factors.

On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream production of caprolactam, which is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. The price of caprolactam continues to rise, while upstream pure benzene prices continue to rise. The cost pressure of caprolactam has increased, and enterprise quotations continue to rise. However, downstream high priced purchases of caprolactam and PA6 conventional spinning chips are gradually becoming cautious, and the atmosphere of high priced transactions is slightly easing. The demand for cyclohexanone has a mixed impact.

In the future market forecast, the raw materials are operating at a high level, and the cost pressure is relatively high. Downstream demand is average, and the spot supply and demand of cyclohexanone are weakly balanced. Business Society cyclohexanone analysts predict that the domestic cyclohexanone market will tend to consolidate at a high level in the short term.

In May, the domestic market for trichloromethane saw a significant increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 31, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2920 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.42% from 2770 yuan/ton in early May.

The price of raw material methanol has fluctuated higher, the price range of liquid chlorine has been consolidated, and the cost of trichloromethane continues to support. Downstream R22, with the arrival of high temperature weather, the demand for air conditioning maintenance has increased; In addition, there is some support for export orders from enterprises in the region in the second half of the month; The overall market for trichloromethane is on the rise.

In May, the production of domestic methane chloride plants increased, gradually increasing from 7.1% in early May to around 7.9% at the end of the month.

In May, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated and rose, while the price range of liquid chlorine stabilized. The cost of trichloromethane continued to support. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of May 31st, the spot price of methanol was 2761 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.15% from the beginning of the month’s 2651 yuan/ton, and a decrease of 8.55% from the high point of 3020 yuan/ton in the cycle; At the end of May, the price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region was 500 yuan/ton, a significant increase from 300 yuan/ton in the middle of the month, and remained unchanged from 500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

In May, with the arrival of high temperature weather, the downstream refrigerant R22 has increased the demand for air conditioning maintenance, providing some necessary support for trichloromethane.

Business Society methane chloride data analyst believes that the cost of trichloromethane continues to support; The demand for downstream refrigerant R22 has increased to some extent, but the production is still at a low level. The support for demand for trichloromethane in the later stage is limited, and it is expected that the trichloromethane market will mainly narrow in the later stage.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of acetic acid fell first and then rose this week. On May 31st, the average market price of acetic acid was 3150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared to the price of 3200 yuan/ton on May 25th, with an overall decrease of 1.56%.

This week, the acetic acid market first fell and then rose. At the beginning of the week, the inventory of enterprises continued to be high, and the intention of manufacturers to arrange inventory continued. The quotation for acetic acid continued to decline. In the later part of the week, some acetic acid factories in the site shut down, and the inventory of enterprises decreased. At the same time, the intention of manufacturers to increase prices increased. At the end of the month, some downstream long-term purchases increased, and the shipment of enterprises was active, leading to an upward trend in acetic acid prices.

As of May 31st, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:

Region/ May 24th/ May 31st/ Rise and fall

South China region/ 3225 yuan/ton/ 3125 yuan/ton/ -100

North China region/ 3225 yuan/ton/ 3150 yuan/ton/ -75

Shandong region/ 3200 yuan/ton/ 3150 yuan/ton/ -50

Jiangsu region/ 3100 yuan/ton/ 3075 yuan/ton/ -25

Zhejiang region/ 3325 yuan/ton/ 3175 yuan/ton/ -50

The upstream raw material methanol market first rose and then fell. On May 31st, the average price in the domestic market was 2761.67 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 0.42% compared to the price of 2750.00 yuan/ton on May 25th. As the end of the month approaches, the market supply increases, and downstream purchasing sentiment is weak. The main demand for entry into the market is rigid, with insufficient demand support. Methanol prices fluctuate and consolidate within a narrow range.

The downstream acetic anhydride market first fell and then rose. On May 31st, the factory price of acetic anhydride was 5437.50 yuan/ton, a 1.58% decrease compared to the price of 5525.00 yuan/ton on May 25th. The upstream acetic acid market is weak and consolidating, with insufficient cost support for acetic anhydride. At the same time, the supply of acetic anhydride market is sufficient, and downstream demand is the main demand. On exchange trading is limited, and the upstream market is driving the weak consolidation of acetic anhydride market.

In the future market forecast, the acetic acid analyst from Shengyishe believes that the main acetic acid factories on the market are currently undergoing maintenance, with no pressure on enterprise inventory and downstream purchases on demand. The sales pressure from manufacturers is still acceptable, and the market trading atmosphere is expected to improve. It is expected that the acetic acid market will continue to rise in the short term, and prices may fluctuate narrowly. In the future, attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.

1、 Price trend

This month, domestic methyl ethyl carbonate showed a slight downward trend overall. As of May 30th, the benchmark price of methyl ethyl carbonate in Shengyishe was 8333 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.19% compared to the beginning of this month (8433 yuan/ton). This month, the methyl ethyl carbonate industry has seen a significant increase in new developments and equipment construction, resulting in a low load under the pressure of losses.

Market quotations for carbonates

The mainstream price of methyl carbonate is 7800-8200 yuan/ton for acceptance delivery, 5000-5300 yuan/ton for ethylene carbonate, 7250-8250 yuan/ton for propylene carbonate, and 4550-5220 yuan/ton for battery grade dimethyl carbonate. The factors that affect price fluctuations, in addition to cost support, are still the main factors that suppress market trends, including supply and demand pressure and poor transmission of the industrial chain.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost

Dimethyl carbonate has been operating weakly and steadily this month. As of May 30th, the benchmark price of dimethyl carbonate for Shengyishe is 4133.33 yuan/ton, which is the same as the beginning of this month. The trend of raw material prices fluctuates, with average support from the cost side. Mainstream offers continue to remain stable, and traders remain cautious, with some offering discounts to promote shipments. Downstream market sentiment is not high, and actual orders are mostly based on on-demand procurement. The supply and demand relationship is not improving, and the market is not supported by favorable factors. The market is consolidating, and we are watching actual orders.

In terms of demand

According to data, the average price of domestic electrolytes in the first quarter of 2024 was 21000 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 54.15%; The gross profit was 1111.21 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 58.29%. At present, the price and profit level of electrolyte have entered the grinding stage. Electrolyte production enterprises continue to maintain a high operating rate and determine production based on sales.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Recently, the market for methyl ethyl carbonate has been operating weakly, with weak spot negotiations and negotiations for large orders at lower prices. In the near future, some maintenance equipment will be restarted, and the supply side will increase. The supplier intends to promote transactions mainly to alleviate inventory pressure. But currently, the overall demand side load is average, and the main downstream demand procurement is mainly based on rigid demand, with cautious bearish sentiment on the market. The trading market’s trading enthusiasm is not high, waiting for more news to be released. Business Society analysts predict that in the short term, domestic methyl ethyl carbonate will continue to adjust narrowly.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the hydrogenated benzene market fluctuated and rose in May 2024. The ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China was 8666.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 9066.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 4.62%.

Crude oil prices: Business Society crude oil analysts believe that the future crude oil supply and demand game will continue. On the supply side, the OPEC ministerial meeting will be held on June 1st, at which time the organization will discuss production reduction policies. Currently, the policy tends to continue the previous production reduction scale. In addition, countries such as Iraq and Kazakhstan have submitted compensatory production reduction plans for exceeding quotas, and Russia’s technical excess has also promised compensatory production reduction. There will not be too much change on the supply side in the future. From the demand side, future demand may have two sides. On the one hand, gasoline demand in the United States is expected to increase as the summer driving season begins. At the same time, China is currently implementing intensive economic stimulus measures, and there is also some potential for future demand. On the other hand, in the medium to long term, oil demand is still constrained by the high interest rate environment in the United States, and there is a certain degree of uncertainty on the demand side. Overall, the short-term decline in crude oil prices is a squeezing effect of amplified bearish sentiment on both supply and demand sides. However, the future supply and demand fundamentals do not support the maintenance of low oil prices. It is expected that there is still room for upward movement after the adjustment of oil prices. On May 28th, international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $79.83 per barrel, an increase of $2.11 or 2.7% from last Friday. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $83.94 per barrel, up $1.06 or 1.3%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

In May 2024, Sinopec’s listed price for pure benzene increased by a total of 200 yuan/ton, with a current implementation of 9000 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 9000 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 8800 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 9003 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 9000 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 8800 yuan/ton.

In terms of the industrial chain, the overall pure benzene market has steadily increased this month, with market prices steadily rising. The overall increase in the first half of the month was limited, but by the end of the month, the supply of pure benzene in East China was tight, driving up the sentiment in the spot market. Sinopec raised its listing price to 9000 yuan/ton at the end of the month, once again boosting market sentiment. The mainstream ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene has also risen to 9000-9100 yuan/ton, and manufacturers have a strong attitude towards price support. The overall market atmosphere is strong.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. After entering 23 years, the hydrogenated benzene market has seen more ups and downs. In May, the market continued to decline for two consecutive months, while in July and August, it continued to rise for two consecutive months. The weekly K-bar chart shows that the hydrogenated benzene market has seen more gains than losses in recent times.

In terms of supply, in the first half of May, the production of hydrogenated benzene enterprises was relatively low, and the supply was slightly tight. Later, as market prices continued to rise, some maintenance companies resumed work. In the latter half of the year, the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises rebounded, and the supply of hydrogenated benzene remained stable. In terms of demand, downstream demand has performed well recently, driving the heating up of the pure benzene industry chain. Overall, boosted by the overall rise of the industrial chain, the hydrogenated benzene market has maintained a stable, medium to strong trend in recent times.