In the first quarter of 2024, the price center of the domestic adhesive short fiber market shifted upwards. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the overall price of adhesive short fiber increased significantly in the first quarter of 2024. As of March 31st, the domestic factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber is 13540 yuan/ton, an increase of 640 yuan/ton from the beginning of the quarter, with a quarterly increase of 4.96%.

In January 2024, the market price of upstream raw material and main material dissolved slurry remained stable and increased, while the market price of auxiliary material liquid alkali skyrocketed. The sulfuric acid market reversed, and the cost side was well supported; The transaction atmosphere in the downstream cotton yarn market is gradually improving, and the inventory of yarn factories has significantly decreased. The demand for raw materials has increased, and favorable support from the demand side is gradually emerging; Supported by multiple positive news, the inventory of adhesive short fiber manufacturers is tight, and the sentiment of price support is strong. The market price of adhesive short fiber is steadily rising, and by the return of the Spring Festival holiday, the market price of adhesive short fiber has risen to the highest point of 13560 yuan/ton this year. At the end of the season, downstream market demand did not recover as expected, and the new round of signing was not ideal. The actual transaction prices in the market declined, and the market price of adhesive short fibers declined narrowly. As of March 31, the domestic ex factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fibers was 13540 yuan/ton.

Supply analysis

In the first quarter of 2024, the overall supply of adhesive short fibers decreased narrowly compared to the previous quarter. During the season, the equipment of adhesive short fiber manufacturers in Xinjiang region was shut down for maintenance, and the restart time is uncertain; The equipment of the adhesive short fiber manufacturer in Jiangxi region has undergone load reduction maintenance and has now resumed full load operation; The equipment of the adhesive short fiber manufacturer in Shandong region has been partially shut down for maintenance and has not been restarted yet. The overall operating rate of the market has declined, with the industry’s daily operating rate at around 80.23%.

requirement analysis

In the first quarter of 2024, the demand for adhesive short fibers in the market turned from strong to weak. At the beginning of the season, the trading atmosphere in the human cotton yarn market gradually improved, and inventory decreased by about average. In addition, as the Spring Festival approached, manufacturers had a good enthusiasm for stocking up before the holiday, and the demand side support was strong. On site orders were mostly signed until mid March; With the return of the Spring Festival, downstream yarn factories have resumed work slowly. In addition, the high prices of raw materials have increased, and manufacturers have insufficient acceptance of high priced raw materials. They mainly consume early inventory, and the demand side has recovered less than expected. In mid March, a new round of contract signing ended, and downstream factories have maintained on-demand procurement. On site orders have only been maintained for about a month.

Cost profit analysis

In the first quarter of 2024, the average production cost and profit of viscose staple fibers increased narrowly compared to the previous quarter. In the first quarter, the market price of domestically produced dissolved pulp rose from a low point, with an average price of 7450 yuan/ton; The liquid alkali market first fell and then rose, with an average price of 853 yuan/ton; The average price of sulfuric acid is 193 yuan/ton. Overall, the average production cost of viscose staple fiber has increased narrowly, and the price of viscose staple fiber has increased significantly. The profit of the viscose staple fiber industry has turned from loss to profit.

market forecast

Cost side: Currently, the upstream raw material prices are showing a strong trend, providing some positive support for the market. It is expected that the cost side prices of viscose short fibers will not fluctuate significantly in the next quarter, which will have limited impact on market prices.

Supply side: Currently, the overall production of adhesive short fibers in the market remains at a high level, with low inventory from manufacturers. The supply side is performing well, and the industry’s parking and maintenance equipment may restart in the next quarter. It is expected that the market supply will slightly increase in the next quarter.

On the demand side: Currently, there is a shortage of orders in the downstream market, manufacturers are not shipping smoothly, inventory has accumulated, and there is a weak intention to replenish raw materials. More purchases are made on demand, and it is expected that there will be no significant improvement in the demand side in the next quarter.

Overall, the current downstream market demand is weak, and the signing of orders by adhesive short fiber manufacturers is not ideal. In order to promote downstream stocking, manufacturers may lower their prices. However, adhesive short fiber manufacturers have low inventory, coupled with high raw material cost prices, the market price decline is limited. Therefore, analysts from Business Society predict that the market price of adhesive short fiber will decline narrowly in the future.

From April 1st to April 8th, 2024, the antimony ingot market in East China slightly increased, with prices this week at 91250 yuan/ton, up 0.27%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above chart, it can be seen that the antimony ingot market has not fluctuated much recently.

This week, the price of European strategic small metal antimony has remained stable, with a price of $12850/ton as of April 8th, unchanged. Currently, the market is on a wait-and-see basis.

Since the Spring Festival, the antimony ingot market has remained temporarily stable and stable, with a slight decline in the market after January. Recently, the market has returned to stability, and prices have slightly rebounded near the Qingming Festival. The overall market trend in the first quarter remained narrow and fluctuating. From the perspective of supply, smelting enterprises are currently maintaining normal production, and the supply of antimony ingots is relatively stable. However, the mining end still maintains a tight pattern, which has affected the strong mentality of smelters to raise prices and the tight market supply. In terms of demand, downstream industries such as antimony oxide have shown a relatively stable trend in recent times. Enterprises are replenishing their inventory as needed to maintain essential procurement. During this cycle, some downstream enterprises have replenished their inventory due to the impact of the Qingming Festival, which has led to a slight recovery in the market. As the 51 hour holiday approaches, there will be replenishing demand downstream, which will slightly increase market sentiment. In the future, Business Society believes that the demand for downstream holiday restocking will drive a brief rise in the market, and the market will maintain a stable, medium to strong trend in the near future. In the future, the focus will be on the consumption situation of the photovoltaic industry and the impact of environmental policies on the market.

This week, the antimony oxide market remained temporarily stable, while the spot market was weak. Downstream demand replenishment was maintained, and market prices were affected by the stability of the antimony ingot market, with most remaining temporarily stable.

Industry data:

On April 7th, the base metal index was 1208 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 25.25% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 88.16% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On April 7th, the non-ferrous index was 1133 points, an increase of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 26.33% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 86.66% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 14th week of 2024 (4.1-4.5), there were a total of 17 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. Among them, there were 3 commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 12% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase are praseodymium neodymium alloy (5.71%), metallic praseodymium (5.70%), and praseodymium oxide (5.59%). There are four products that have experienced a month on month decline, with the top three products experiencing a decline being silicon metal (-0.93%), lead (-0.64%), and cobalt (-0.22%). The average increase and decrease this week was 1.71%.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of stearic acid has slightly declined this week. As of April 7th, the mainstream price of domestic stearic acid (1840) was 8560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.47% from last week, an increase of 1.78% from March 1st, and an increase of 4.14% from January.

2、 Market analysis

Cost side: Malaysian palm oil inventories are low in the external market, exports have improved, and the Malaysian palm oil futures market is rising. Supported by bullish sentiment, the domestic palm oil spot market has risen significantly, with an average market price of around 8660 yuan/ton, up 12.06% from early March. In April, the import volume of soybeans to Hong Kong gradually increased, and South American soybeans were listed one after another. The supply was loose, and the price of soybean oil palm oil rose under pressure.

Demand side: On March 1st, the average domestic PVC price was 5608 yuan/ton, and on April 7th, the average price was 5530 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.39%. The operating load of PVC equipment has slightly increased this week; Downstream demand is still dominated by rigid demand, and there are no obvious positive factors in the market. It is expected that PVC spot prices will continue to be weak and consolidate in the short term.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Business Society believe that as the palm oil market slows down in April, the support for the cost of stearic acid will gradually weaken. There is ample supply on the market, and purchasing enthusiasm will decrease. Downstream markets are more wait-and-see, and transactions tend to be cautious. It is expected that the overall operation of the stearic acid market will remain stable without significant fluctuations next week.

This week, due to factors such as cost support and supply reduction, the market price of isooctyl acrylate has remained stable. As of April 2nd, the benchmark price of isooctyl acrylate at Shengyishe was 13125.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from last week’s (13125.00 yuan/ton). The follow-up of new downstream orders is limited, and the increase in terminal demand is not significant. The price trend is difficult to rise, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere is spreading.

From the perspective of the supply side:

During the week, the price of upstream raw material acrylic acid continued to rise. As of April 2nd, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyishe was 6525.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.31% compared to last week (6375.00 yuan/ton).

From the demand side perspective:

During this cycle, the prices of downstream adhesive short fiber main products have decreased. On April 1st, the adhesive short fiber industry chain index was 108.05, a decrease of 0.24 points from yesterday and a decrease of 125.24 points from the highest point in the cycle. Due to the poor performance of orders in the spinning and weaving markets, but the overall cost of viscose short fibers is relatively high this week, and with the rise of temperature and the arrival of the traditional maintenance season for viscose short fibers, appropriate stocking may still be chosen this week.

Overall

Next week, Pinghu Petrochemical Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Satellite Chemistry, will undergo routine maintenance and some process upgrades for its annual production of 320000 tons of acrylic acid and 300000 tons of acrylic acid ester units. The maintenance period is expected to be around 60 days. The cost support has been strengthened, and market sentiment has rebounded to some extent. Moreover, the current supply side performance is loose, with enterprise shipments leading the way, and the recovery of terminal demand is slow. The demand side constrains the trend of the raw material market from bottom to top.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of March 31, 2024, the domestic market price of organic silicon DMC was referenced at 15260 yuan/ton. Compared with March 1 (organic silicon DMC reference 15960 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.39%.

From the data detection chart of the organic silicon DMC products of Shengyishe, it can be seen that in March, the overall domestic organic silicon DMC market showed a trend of “first rising, then falling, and then falling at the end of the month”.

Analysis of March Organic Silicon DMC Market

In early March, the domestic organic silicon DMC market showed a slight upward trend overall. Supported by pre orders, the organic silicon DMC factory faced relatively low supply pressure on the market. In addition, the atmosphere of buying up but not falling downstream was heightened. In early March, the overall negotiation atmosphere in the organic silicon DMC market was operating at a high level.

In mid March, with the end of downstream stage demand stocking, the trading atmosphere of organic silicon DMC on the market returned to calm, and the atmosphere of chasing gains on the market gradually weakened. The lack of support for the continued upward momentum of the organic silicon DMC market was revealed, and the overall market entered a consolidation operation.

In late March, as demand continued to weaken, it was difficult for organic silicon DMC to sustain sustained high and stable operations on the market, and the market began to decline. The low price of organic silicon DMC fell below the 16000 yuan/ton mark. In some regions, the price of organic silicon DMC has also started to decrease sporadically, with a reduction of about 100-200 yuan/ton. As the end of the month approaches, the focus of the organic silicon DMC market has significantly declined. Shandong’s major and leading factories have lowered the ex factory price of organic silicon DMC, and the low price of organic silicon DMC in the market has dropped to 14800 yuan/ton. As of March 31, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price is around 14800-15500 yuan/ton.

Analysis of influencing factors

The main factors affecting the “high opening, low moving, and month end diving” of the organic silicon DMC market in March come from the following three aspects:

In terms of supply: At the beginning of the month, some organic silicon DMC factories had pre orders to provide price support for organic silicon DMC. Therefore, the factory’s willingness to ship at low prices is not strong, and there is not much supply pressure. In the latter half of the year, some factories have slowed down their shipping pace and increased their willingness to sell at a lower price. As a result, the focus of market negotiations has gradually shifted towards a lower price.

In terms of demand: In the early stages, there was a strong buying atmosphere in the downstream of organic silicon DMC, and the overall downstream market was still in a stocking trend. Starting from mid to late October, with the end of downstream stocking, the demand side has weakened, and with weak demand support, the bearish situation in the organic silicon DMC market has emerged, gradually leading to a weak trend in the market.

In terms of cost: In March, the metal silicon market continued to decline, and the cost side provided loose support for organic silicon DMC. Therefore, in March, the organic silicon DMC market was not supported enough by the cost side.

The price situation of organic silicon DMC in the mainstream market in March

Region/ Product/ March 31st/ Monthly fluctuations

Shandong region/ Organic silicon DMC/ 14800-15500./-800

Zhejiang region/ Organic silicon DMC/ 15000-15200./-1200

Central China region/ Organic silicon DMC/ 15200./-1000

Southwest region/ Organic silicon DMC/ 15200./-900

Prediction of the future trend of organic silicon DMC market

At present, the trading atmosphere on the organic silicon DMC market is relatively light, with cautious orders placed in the middle and lower reaches mainly for essential needs. The supply and demand game in the organic silicon DMC market is exposed, and the organic silicon DMC data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market will mostly be weakly adjusted and operated, and more attention should be paid to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the toluene market has continued to rise in recent days (3.18-3.27). On March 27th, the benchmark price of toluene was 7350 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.82% from the 7290 yuan/ton on March 18th.

International crude oil prices fluctuate at high levels, with toluene receiving some support

Recently (3.18-3.27), under the resonance of multiple factors, international crude oil has fluctuated at a high level, which still provides some support for the cost of toluene. As of March 26th, WTI05 contract settlement is $81.62 per barrel; Brent 06 contract settlement is $85.63 per barrel. The price of toluene in Asia has once again risen, providing some support for the domestic market. As of March 26, April, the CFR China LC90 day toluene price was between 918-920 US dollars per ton.

Starting production of p-xylene, obtaining essential support for high-level toluene

There is sufficient domestic spot supply of xylene, and international crude oil prices rose and then fell within the week. PX external prices also rose and fell, with an overall downward trend. As of the 22nd, the closing prices in the Asian region were 998-1000 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1023-1025 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has remained high, with an overall operating rate of nearly 80% for xylene plants in the Asian region. The supply-demand contradiction of PX supply in the Asian region has become apparent, and the domestic xylene market prices have declined.

Slow recovery of domestic mixed blending market, weak support for toluene demand

The recovery of the domestic mixed blending market is slow, and the demand for toluene mixed blending has weakened. As of mid March, the national refinery operation was around 7.3.

The inventory of toluene port has significantly decreased, and the pressure on the supply side has been alleviated

Domestic toluene port inventory has decreased, with East China toluene inventory at 69000 tons and South China toluene inventory at 17000 tons as of March 22, which is lower than the previous period. However, the pressure on toluene supply is still present. Due to equipment maintenance in some enterprises, the domestic production of toluene has slightly decreased, with a production rate of around 740% as of March 22.

Expected decrease in toluene supply during planned maintenance of multiple devices

Overall, the expected decline in the supply of toluene in the later stage provides some support for the toluene market.

Market forecast: Currently, international crude oil prices are fluctuating at high levels, and there is still support for the cost of toluene; Secondly, the recovery of demand in some downstream industries is slow, and the support for rigid demand is weak; Finally, the inventory of toluene at the port decreased and the plan for equipment maintenance led to an expected continued decline in the supply of toluene. It is expected that the toluene market will continue to rise in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of dichloroethane in China was 2793 yuan/ton on March 24th, and 2810 yuan/ton on March 18th. The price of chloroethane fell by 0.59% this Tuesday.

2、 Analysis and Review

This Tuesday, the market price of chloroethane continued to be weak, with a moderate trading atmosphere and sufficient market supply. According to customs data, the export volume of 1,2-dichloroethane (ISO) from China in February 2024 was 35 tons, with an average export price of 3411 yuan/ton. The total export volume of 1,2-dichloroethane (ISO) from China from January to February was 5564.349 tons, a year-on-year increase of 92%.

In terms of raw materials, the quotation for ethylene CFR Northeast Asia increased by $5/ton this week.

On the demand side: Recently, major vinyl chloride manufacturers in East China have been operating steadily, and the supply of goods has increased. The mainstream quotation of domestic vinyl chloride products has been lowered, and the market transaction situation is slightly flat compared to the previous period. The quotation for ethylene based PVC in East China has increased by 50 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

From the perspective of the business society, there has been a narrow increase in the prices of raw materials and demand terminals, but there is sufficient supply of vinyl chloride, and procurement is mainly based on rigid demand. It is expected that the price of dichloroethane will remain stable and weak in the near future.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of March 22, 2024, the domestic market price of organic silicon DMC was referenced at 16040 yuan/ton. Compared with March 17 (organic silicon DMC reference 16160 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.74%.

From the testing chart of the organic silicon DMC product data of Shengyishe, it can be seen that this week, the overall domestic organic silicon DMC market showed a weak decline. During the week, the overall trading atmosphere in the organic silicon DMC site was light, and the downstream stocking in the early stage has basically ended. Currently, it is mostly in the stage of digesting inventory. Therefore, the current downstream demand for organic silicon DMC is showing a weak trend, and overall new orders on the market are gradually weakening. Under the drag of weak demand, the overall negotiation focus of organic silicon DMC in the market has continued to decline slightly. As of March 22, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference is around 15800-16500 yuan/ton.

Prediction of the future trend of organic silicon DMC market

At present, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the organic silicon DMC market, and there is some concern in the market. Downstream demand for goods is relatively cautious, and some factories have a certain willingness to go out of stock. Some factories still have pre order support, with stable prices as the main focus. According to the organic silicon DMC data analyst from Business Society, in the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market will mainly adjust and operate within a narrow range. More attention should be paid to the news on the supply and demand side, as well as the impact of factors such as market operation and production capacity changes.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong has recently risen. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1196.67 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1203.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.56%. The current price has dropped by 5.50% year-on-year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region has fluctuated and risen. From the above chart, it can be seen that the formaldehyde market has been mainly fluctuating slightly, with a narrow upward trend this week. As of March 21st, the mainstream market price in Shandong region is 1150-1260 yuan/ton. This week, the price of raw material methanol has risen, with good cost support. Downstream plate factories have slow demand and consumption, and formaldehyde manufacturers are under greater pressure to ship, resulting in limited market growth.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market is operating in a narrow upward trend. Anqing Shuguang and Xiaoyi Xindongheng equipment maintenance; Guangju New Materials, Yunnan Qumei, and Yunnan Pioneer Plant have reduced production; Daqing Methanol Plant, Sinopec Great Wall, and Xinjiang Xinye Plant have been restored. The overall loss is greater than the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is influenced by favorable factors. The low volume of methanol arriving at the port and the low level of port inventory have provided strong support to the market, resulting in a slight increase in the methanol market.

Recently, the price of raw material methanol has risen, with good cost support. However, the imbalance between supply and demand in the formaldehyde market has not improved. Therefore, the formaldehyde analyst at the Chemical Branch of Shengyishe predicts that the formaldehyde price in Shandong will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the near future.

Recently (from March 12th to March 20th), the market price of butadiene rubber has surged significantly. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of March 20th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 13940 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.97% from the 13280 yuan/ton on March 12th. The high price consolidation of raw material butadiene, the decline in the supply of butadiene rubber, and the high production of downstream tires have formed strong favorable conditions for the cost and supply of butadiene rubber, resulting in a significant increase in the price of butadiene rubber.

Recently (3.12~3.20), the price of butadiene has stabilized at a high level, with strong cost support for butadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 20th, the price of butadiene was 11532 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.03% from March 12th’s 11528 yuan/ton.

In the near future (3.12-3.20), the overall production of butadiene rubber has remained at a low level of around 6.3%, and the supply of butadiene rubber is expected to be tight in the later stage.

Demand side: In the near future (3.12-3.20), downstream tires will start operating at a high level, providing certain support for butadiene rubber. It is understood that as of March 14th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 790%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is close to 70%; Overall, there is some support for the supply and demand of polybutadiene rubber, but as the price of polybutadiene rubber rises, downstream consumers may resist high prices and procurement efforts may slow down.

Market forecast: Business Society analysts believe that the price of raw material butadiene is still at a high level, and the cost support for butadiene rubber is strong; While some devices are being shut down and reduced in load, there are still other maintenance plans in the later stage, and the expectation of starting production of butadiene rubber is further reduced; The cost and commencement of production support the market for butadiene rubber. However, the current downstream resistance to the high priced supply of butadiene rubber has slowed down, putting pressure on the butadiene rubber market. Overall, the current butadiene rubber market is expected to maintain a high consolidation level in the short term.