According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on October 30th, the ex factory price of cyclohexanone in Shandong Province, China was reference 6350 yuan/ton. Compared with October 1st (cyclohexanone price reference 6900 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.97%.
In October, the cyclohexanone market weakened and fell, with the focus of the market continuously moving towards lower levels
From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that since October, the domestic cyclohexanone market in Shandong has been showing a normal trend of weak and declining. In the first ten days of the holiday, the market situation remained calm with little change in fundamentals. After the holiday, the cyclohexanone market experienced a cold decline and the focus of on-site negotiations continued to decline, with a drop of 3.62% in the first half of the year. In the latter half of the year, the decline in the cyclohexanone market did not stop, and the market continued to decline narrowly. The inquiry atmosphere remained at the low end, with a 1.5% drop in the latter half of the year. As of October 30th, the ex factory price of cyclohexanone in Shandong region is around 6300-6400 yuan/ton.
Analysis of Factors Influencing Market Trends
In terms of supply and demand, the game of strong supply and weak demand is obvious
In October, the overall supply side of the cyclohexanone market was fully realized, but the supply side remained under pressure and the release of inventory pressure was slow. Downstream demand procurement is cautious, and demand transmission is insufficient, making it difficult for the demand side to effectively provide sufficient support to the market.
Cost aspect: Cost fluctuation, loose operational support
In October, the cost side pure benzene market fluctuated and fell, providing loose support for the cost of cyclohexanone. As of October 29th, according to data from Shengyi Society, the reference price of pure benzene was 5155.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.85% compared to October 1st (5848.67 yuan/ton).
Market analysis in the future
At present, the overall supply of cyclohexanone in the market is still relatively loose, and downstream new orders are more limited. The cost support is still weak, and the overall market support is still insufficient. The cyclohexanone data analyst of Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the cyclohexanone market in Shandong will mainly operate in a range, and specific changes in supply and demand as well as cost information need to be paid more attention to.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 29th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 4000 yuan/ton. The DMF market was mainly weak in October, with prices falling narrowly. The overall price in October fell by 0.99%, with a decline of about 40 yuan/ton,
2、 Cause analysis
Market wise: In the first half of October, domestic DMF prices showed a stable to weak trend, with mainstream quotes ranging from 5500-6000 yuan/ton (in East China). Some companies slightly lowered prices due to inventory pressure. In late October, due to fluctuations in raw material methanol prices and weak downstream demand, prices were further pressured, with some manufacturers’ quotes falling to 5300-5800 yuan/ton, and high-end transactions were rare.
Supply and demand relationship: raw material costs, fluctuating methanol prices (with an average price of about 2400-2600 yuan/ton in October), limited support for DMF costs. On the demand side, downstream industries such as PU pulp and electronic chemicals have average operating rates, and procurement is mainly based on essential needs, lacking centralized replenishment power. On the supply side, some equipment maintenance has ended, market supply has increased, and inventory pressure has become apparent.
In terms of cost, domestic coal to methanol project approvals are becoming stricter, coke oven gas routes are affected by steel production cuts, Iran’s unstable natural gas supply is causing delays in new production capacity, green methanol has become a new demand highlight due to the International Maritime Organization’s zero emission policy, and MTO plant restarts and some downstream new production support demand.
3、 Future forecast
DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the DMF market is operating weakly, with insufficient price increases and weak downstream demand. It is expected that prices will maintain their current trend in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate is experiencing an unexpected price reversal. As of October 28th, the benchmark price of domestic battery grade lithium carbonate spot trading society is 78400 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.51% from the beginning of the month, a month on month increase of 7.03%, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.76%; The benchmark price of domestic industrial grade lithium carbonate trading company is 76633 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.3% from the beginning of the month, a month on month increase of 7.13%, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.31%.

The core logic of price increase: the dual driving force of demand exceeding expectations and accelerated inventory depletion
The demand side is not weak in the off-season: the dual efforts of the two main markets of new energy vehicles and energy storage: in the first nine months, the sales of new energy vehicles increased by 35% year-on-year, far exceeding the expectations of 20% to 28% at the beginning of the year, and the annual growth rate of over 30% has become a certainty; The year-on-year growth rate of overseas orders for energy storage is close to 132%. Domestic first and second tier manufacturers’ overseas orders have been scheduled until next year.
De stocking boosts market confidence: Since August, the lithium carbonate market has been continuously destocking. As of the week of October 24th, the weekly inventory dropped to 130000 tons, a decrease of 2292 tons compared to the previous week. Although the 130000 ton inventory is still at a high level, downstream demand has increased and there is no substantial pressure on inventory.
There is favorable support on the supply side
The shutdown of Ningde Times, coupled with the delay in resuming production of some production capacity in Jiangxi due to the expiration of mining certificates, has provided favorable support for prices. With the arrival of winter, the production capacity of salt lakes such as Xizang in Qinghai will be seasonally limited, further limiting the supply increment.
Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that in the current market environment where inventory depletion is accelerating and demand growth exceeds expectations, lithium carbonate prices are rebounding strongly, and the short-term supply and demand pattern is improving. However, in the long run, there are still uncertain factors on both the demand and supply sides, and market changes still need to be monitored.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of baking soda at the beginning of the week was 1225 yuan/ton, and the average market price of baking soda at the end of the week was 1220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.41% in price and a decrease of 23.61% compared to the same period last year. On October 23, the Business Society Baking Soda Index was 80.97, unchanged from yesterday and hitting a historic low for the cycle, a decrease of 65.67% from the highest point of 235.84 on November 10, 2021. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running weakly, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is running weakly, with a factory price of 1080-1200 yuan/ton in Henan region and 1200-1300 yuan/ton in Shandong region. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has been consolidating this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week is currently 1186 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.6% compared to the same period last year. Downstream buyers tend to purchase on demand.
Analysts from Business Society believe that the price of baking soda has been weak in recent times, while the upstream raw material soda ash has been consolidating in recent times. Downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have been purchasing on demand for baking soda, and demand enthusiasm is still acceptable. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from October 20th to 24th, the domestic BDO price remained at 7465 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of 0.76% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.34%. The domestic BDO market is operating on a wait-and-see basis, with fluctuations still present in the equipment sector, low industry capacity utilization rates, and continued loss pressures. Supply side policies are tightening to support the market. Follow up on downstream contracts. Spot purchases are light and resistant to high prices, and the supply-demand game continues, making market fluctuations difficult.

In terms of supply and equipment, Junzheng and Xinye Phase I equipment have restarted, Shaanxi Black Cat equipment has slightly increased in negative operation, while Shuguang Green Hua equipment has been shut down for a short period of time. The industry’s capacity utilization rate is still low, and supply side support still exists. The supply side of BDO is expected to be affected by favorable factors.
In terms of cost, raw material calcium carbide: The domestic calcium carbide market is operating steadily, but the overall supply in Inner Mongolia is still unstable due to the continuous impact of orderly electricity consumption. With the gradual resumption of maintenance in downstream areas such as Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Ningxia, there has been a significant increase in downstream demand. Raw material methanol: The domestic methanol market is mainly sorted out. As of 10:00 pm on October 23, the reference price for domestic methanol in Taicang is 2245 yuan/ton. Raw material calcium carbide remains stable, methanol is weakly consolidated, and the cost of BDO is affected by unfavorable factors.
On the demand side, downstream PTMEG production has slightly declined, while industries such as PBT, GBL-NMP, and PBAT have seen an increase in load, leading to an overall increase in downstream demand and a situation of supply shortage in the market. The demand for BDO is influenced by favorable factors.
In the future forecast, there will be no significant changes in fundamentals, and the supply-demand game will intensify. BDO analysts from Business Society predict that the BDO market will mainly focus on maintaining stability and consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average market price of light soda ash on October 22 was 1186 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price of 1186 yuan/ton on October 11. The price of soda ash remained stable in the middle of the month.
2、 Market analysis
Recently, the soda ash market has remained stable with a wait-and-see attitude. Downstream procurement follows up on demand, with low enthusiasm for entering the market and poor shipments from soda ash companies; On the supply side, some enterprises have stopped or reduced their production, which has supported the market mentality. However, the overall inventory of soda ash is high, and downstream follow-up is limited. In the on-site supply and demand game, most enterprises adopt a wait-and-see attitude, and the quotation runs smoothly.
On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the glass market has recently experienced a wide decline, with an average market price of 14.63 yuan/square meter as of October 22, a decrease of 6.82% compared to the price of 15.70 yuan/ton on October 11. The glass production is running smoothly, the market supply is increasing, downstream demand is average, manufacturer orders are decreasing, social inventory consumption is insufficient, enterprise inventory is accumulating, and glass prices are weakly declining.
Future forecast: Currently, the domestic soda ash spot market is running steadily, and the supply side maintenance equipment is recovering in the later stage. The soda ash mentality is expected to be bearish, and the downstream glass market is weak, providing insufficient support for soda ash. The market fundamentals are oversupplied, and it is expected that the soda ash market will operate weakly. Specific attention should be paid to the market shipment situation.

After the holiday, the domestic phenol market mainly declined. According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, from the perspective of the East China market, the domestic phenol market price was 6820 yuan/ton on October 8th, and 6516 yuan/ton on October 17th, a decrease of 4.45%. All major mainstream markets in China have experienced a similar degree of decline.

Sinopec’s listing price in East China has been lowered by 250 yuan/ton, with an execution of 6600 yuan/ton. The operating level of domestic phenol and ketone plants has remained basically stable. From the perspective of port supply, the East China cargo statistics show 21200 tons, with 3000 tons in transit in November.
From a demand perspective, downstream rigid demand is the main factor. Considering the high monthly average price and stable prices on weekends, but the short working days this month have led to a high willingness of traders to ship, resulting in insufficient trading volume in the current market.
In terms of equipment: Pay attention to the progress of Jilin Petrochemical’s new phenol ketone unit in the later stage.
Business Society predicts that the phenol market will operate narrowly in the near future, with little fluctuation in supply and tight spot prices at ports, resulting in a slight decrease in demand.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 12700 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of the week was 12666/ton, a decrease of 0.26% in price.

Domestic coconut shell activated carbon prices remained stable this week, with some manufacturers experiencing a decline in quotes. The ex factory price of coconut shell activated carbon for water purification in East China is between 9500-13000 yuan/ton, and the high price of coconut shell activated carbon limits downstream transaction enthusiasm, resulting in sluggish market sales. The focus is on market transactions.
The price fluctuations of wooden and bamboo activated carbon are relatively small, while physical method wooden and bamboo carbon are supported by costs, and factory quotations are mainly stable. From the supply side, the production of coconut in the main coconut producing areas of Southeast Asia has decreased, and the cost of domestic enterprises with high import dependence has increased, resulting in a reduction in the supply of coconut shell raw materials. The demand for coconut shell activated carbon in areas such as new energy batteries and gold extraction has increased, supporting high prices. ‌‌
Prediction: High prices in the domestic coconut shell activated carbon market limit transactions, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate in the short term.

Product Name: Titanium Dioxide
Latest price on October 16th: 13860 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day.
Analysis points: On October 16th, the domestic titanium dioxide market price remained stable temporarily. At present, the price of raw material sulfuric acid has rebounded, and the cost of titanium dioxide enterprises is under pressure. The new order quotation is firm. However, due to the impact of the real estate industry, there is a shortage of production in the terminal market. Currently, downstream demand is average, and enterprises have low purchasing intentions, mostly adopting a wait-and-see approach and focusing on first-time purchases.
Prediction: It is expected that the price of titanium dioxide will remain stable in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be negotiable.

After the post holiday market downturn, it is expected to enter a period of consolidation this week. According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, from the perspective of the East China market, the domestic phenol market price was 6820 yuan/ton on October 8th, 6600 yuan/ton on October 12th, and 6543 yuan/ton on October 14th, a decrease of 4.06% after the holiday,.
At present, the fundamental fluctuations in market supply and demand are not significant. Considering the impact of spot supply and high monthly average prices, traders have little intention of excessively offering discounts. However, price manipulation lacks bullish support. From the perspective of raw materials, crude oil has shown a significant decline after the holiday, which has driven the price of pure benzene down again. Major manufacturers have lowered their listing prices twice in a row, and there is insufficient arbitrage space between regions. Traders are actively offering discounts and shipping.
Downstream terminal enterprises tend to purchase on demand, with average purchasing sentiment and low delivery rates. The downstream bisphenol A market has also shown a downward trend in focus.
As of October 14th, the phenol offers in various mainstream markets across the country are as follows:
Region. Quotation on October 14th /Daily fluctuations
East China region./6520-6540/-20
Shandong region / 6550-6580./ -30
Surrounding areas of Yanshan Mountain / 6600./ 0
South China region / 6620./ -20
Business Society predicts that the fundamentals in the market are flat. Considering the high monthly average prices, traders have little intention of offering excessive discounts. Currently, it has entered a relatively stable trend, and downstream purchases are made according to demand. It is expected that the domestic phenol market will operate narrowly today, and attention will be paid to the cost and supply and demand fundamentals.