According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 11800 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of the week was 11866/ton, with a price increase of 0.57%.

Domestic activated carbon manufacturers’ quotations have risen this week, with the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China ranging from 9500 to 12500 yuan/ton. The market transactions are positive, and industry insiders are mostly optimistic, focusing on the market transaction situation.

Coconut shell charcoal has a certain amount of sales in applications such as gold extraction, water purification, and filter cartridges, especially for gold charcoal, which receives a lot of inquiries from the African market; The market for fruit shell charcoal is stable, and there is a recent rebound in imported carbonized materials. The industry should pay more attention to this.

Prediction: The transaction volume in the activated carbon market is improving, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate with a strong trend in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid market showed a stable trend this week. As of January 15th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 11500 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.72% from the beginning of this month.

Raw material side: The price of raw fluorite remains stable this week. The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight. The price of fluorite still provides some support for the hydrofluoric acid market. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of January 15th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s fluorite was 3603.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.52% compared to the beginning of this month (3622.50 yuan/ton).

On the demand side: As the end of the year approaches, refrigerant quotas are depleted, inventory remains low, but there is still a demand for stocking downstream, and market prices continue to remain firm.

Market forecast: High support from the raw material side, insufficient profit margin in the hydrofluoric acid industry, low downstream inventory, and still high and firm quotations will provide favorable support for the hydrofluoric acid market. Overall, the hydrofluoric acid market will mainly maintain its current situation next week, and more attention should be paid to the news of leading enterprises and market supply and demand.

This week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 13th, the price of isooctanol was 7633.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 3.78% compared to the price of 7933.33 yuan/ton on January 6th. The construction of new equipment has been stable. This week, the equipment of isooctanol enterprises started at a high level, and the supply of isooctanol increased. After the New Year’s Day holiday, the replenishment of inventory ended, and the demand for isooctanol decreased. The increase in isooctanol supply and demand decreased, and the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell this week.

This week, the supply of isooctanol increased and the demand decreased

This week, isooctanol enterprises started operating at a high level, coupled with the continuous production of new octanol capacity, resulting in an increase in isooctanol supply. After the holiday, downstream manufacturers have completed their inventory replenishment, resulting in a decrease in demand for isooctanol and an increase in downward pressure on its price.

Downstream plasticizer DOP prices fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 13th, the DOP price was 8401.25 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 1.32% compared to the DOP price of 8513.75 yuan/ton on January 6th. The profit margin of plasticizer DOP is high, plasticizer enterprises are actively operating, downstream plasticizer enterprises have high operating rates, and plasticizer supply is sufficient. After the end of the New Year’s Day holiday, the replenishment of inventory has ended, and the demand for plasticizers has slightly fallen, while the support for the demand for raw material isooctanol has weakened.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product, this week’s high equipment start-up of isooctanol enterprises, coupled with the production of new capacity, has eased the supply shortage of isooctanol and increased its supply; High profits, active downstream production, and the end of post holiday inventory replenishment have weakened the support for isooctanol demand. In the future, the supply shortage of isooctanol has been alleviated, and stocking up before the Spring Festival has provided strong demand support. It is expected that the price of isooctanol will consolidate strongly in the future.

The domestic fluorite prices have remained stable this week, with an average price of 3603.75 yuan/ton as of the weekend, unchanged from the early week price of 3603.75 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 5.03%.

Supply side: Limited mining operations and tight supply of fluorite

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight, and the inventory of fluorite enterprises is low. With the shortage of supply combined with the winter storage season, the atmosphere of factory price increases is strong. In addition, with the decrease in temperature, the supply of fluorite has decreased. This week, the fluorite.

Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid price stable, refrigerant market still acceptable

This week, the price of hydrofluoric acid remained stable, and the mainstream price for hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China has recently been negotiated at 10800-11300 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid equipment is still in shutdown, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and the overall production of hydrofluoric acid has declined to more than 50%. In January, the pricing of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers decreased, and the price of fluorite remained stagnant due to this news.

The downstream refrigerant market in the terminal is still promising, but the refrigerant production situation has declined, and there has been a continuous destocking throughout the year. Fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in maintaining stable prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the foreign trade market prices are still acceptable, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. The refrigerant market has experienced a decline in production, which has led to a suppression of the domestic fluorite market price.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF、 Graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc., have received certain support in the application of fluorite due to the demand for new energy and semiconductors.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production and undergone safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. However, the downstream refrigerant industry has experienced a decline in production, coupled with low prices of hydrofluoric acid, overall demand is not expected to improve. Overall, the domestic fluorite market may be mainly volatile.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate continued to operate under pressure at the beginning of the 25th year, with weak fluctuations. As of January 7th, the domestic price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 76000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.06% from the same period last month at 78400 yuan/ton; The domestic price of battery grade lithium carbonate is 78600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.96% from the same period last month at 81200 yuan/ton.

Demand side:

From the perspective of new energy vehicles, January is the traditional off-season in China, and there is a reduction in power batteries. However, due to the expectation of overseas policies, the demand for exports is expected to be strong, and the overall reduction on the demand side will be better than the same period in previous years.

In December, the production and sales of lithium iron phosphate were strong, and the demand for ternary materials remained stable. There is an expectation of a decrease in downstream demand after January 2025. The operating rate of lithium iron phosphate is about 65%, and the operating rate of ternary materials is about 44%.

Supply side:

Due to the traditional Spring Festival maintenance season, domestic mines are expected to reduce production on the supply side. Based on intelligence and shipping data from Argentina, the import volume is expected to remain balanced.

Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that as the Spring Festival approaches, there are maintenance plans in the upstream of lithium carbonate, coupled with a strong pre holiday stocking mentality and better than expected production scheduling in the downstream. In the short term, it may experience strong fluctuations, and specific market information still needs to be monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the mixed xylene market fluctuated and rose from December 30 to January 6, 2024. On December 30th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 6110 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.64% from 6210 yuan/ton on January 6th. This week, there were slight regional differences in the performance of the xylene market, with insufficient downstream demand in Shandong region and most of the listed prices of local refineries being lowered. Huaben and South China regions have tight inventories, and the rise in crude oil prices has driven up the spot market.

On the cost side: During this cycle, crude oil prices have slightly increased. On the one hand, the OPEC+production reduction agreement has been extended until the end of the first quarter, and some oil producing countries are still implementing compensatory production cuts. This has provided favorable support for crude oil supply, leading to an increase in crude oil market prices. On the other hand, the instability of the situation in the Middle East still exists, which is good news for the international oil market. Overall, the rate of change in crude oil during the cycle remains positive. As of January 3rd, international crude oil futures rose and the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $73.96 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $76.51 per barrel.

Supply side:

Sinopec’s xylene quotation summary shows that the company is currently operating normally, with stable production and sales. The company’s quotation remains unchanged from the previous day. As of January 6th, East China Company quoted 6200 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6050 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6300-6350 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6200 yuan/ton.

On the demand side, the external market for xylene has slightly rebounded, and demand support is still acceptable

On January 6th, the price of xylene at Sinopec Sales Company was temporarily stable, with a current execution price of 7100 yuan/ton. This price was implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other facilities operated stably, with normal sales, and remained the same as the price on December 30th. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of January 3rd, the closing prices of the Asian xylene market were 819-821 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 844-846 US dollars/ton CFR China, an increase of 24 US dollars/ton compared to December 30th.

Market forecast: The crude oil market is expected to perform well in the near future, and it is anticipated that cost support will remain strong in the future. On the supply side, the inventory in Shandong region has been running at a low level recently, with good support from the supply side. Demand is facing the upcoming holiday, and downstream demand expectations are gradually weakening, providing weak support for the market. Overall, the market demand is relatively weak, and it is expected to operate steadily and weakly in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash decreased narrowly in late December. As of December 31, the average market price of soda ash was 1528 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared to the price of 1538 yuan/ton on December 21, a decrease of 0.65%.

2、 Market analysis

The soda ash market was weakly consolidating in late December. The early stage equipment runs smoothly, the soda ash manufacturer actively ships, the downstream follows up as needed, the market trading atmosphere is still acceptable, the supply and demand on site are relatively balanced, and the soda ash price runs steadily; In the later stage, the load of soda ash plants in some regions of China increased, and the supply of soda ash in the region increased. The mentality of operators weakened, and at the same time, the downstream market situation decreased, which had a negative impact on the upstream market. As a result, the market price of soda ash slightly fell.

As of December 31st, the reference price for the soda ash market in East China is around 1450-1550 yuan/ton for light soda ash, with a price reduction of 50 yuan/ton; The reference price for the soda ash market in Central China is around 1350-1550 yuan/ton for light soda ash, with a price reduction of 30 yuan/ton.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the downstream glass market first rose and then fell. From December 21st to 31st, the price of glass increased from 16.40 yuan/square meter to 16.45 yuan/square meter, and then fell back to 16.40 yuan/square meter. The operating rate of the glass market did not change much in the latter half of the year, and downstream entry enthusiasm was not high. Follow up was mainly based on demand, and overall shipments from manufacturers were limited. Market destocking was poor, and glass prices fluctuated slightly.

Future forecast: Currently, the inventory level in the domestic soda ash market is high, and spot soda ash factories are actively shipping. The sales pressure on enterprises still exists, and the downstream glass market demand is average, with more emphasis on on-demand replenishment. This has limited support for the soda ash market, and there is a game of supply and demand in the market. In the short term, soda ash will operate weakly and steadily. Specific attention should be paid to following up on downstream demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has slightly increased recently (12.24-12.31). As of December 31, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 16890 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.72% from 16604 yuan/ton on December 24. Recently, raw material prices have fluctuated slightly at high levels; Domestic Tianjiao Port inventory has slightly increased; Downstream tire factories tend to stock up on demand to support the demand for natural rubber, while the Shanghai rubber market has risen this week, driving the natural rubber spot market slightly higher.

December is currently the peak production season in major overseas production areas, and there is an expectation of seasonal increase in raw material output. However, the recent rainstorm has once again hit the important rubber planting areas in southern Thailand, and the price of natural rubber raw materials is high, driving the domestic price of natural rubber raw materials to remain firm; As of December 31st, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production areas is around 17200 yuan/ton, running at a high level.

Natural rubber inventory continues to show a state of accumulation. As of December 29, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 477600 tons, an increase of 7600 tons compared to the previous period.

Downstream tires mainly provide essential support for the natural rubber market. As of December 27th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to around 6.20% of the load.

Future forecast: The supply of raw materials at home and abroad is gradually rising in the current season, but the short-term rainstorm impacts the main production areas of Thailand, supporting the price of raw materials; The tire market provides strong support for natural rubber demand; The inventory of Tianjiao Port continues to increase; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will mainly consolidate within a certain range in the short term.

Analysis: This week (12.23-27), the liquid ammonia market in Shandong Province showed weak performance, with prices continuing to decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the main production area of Shandong experienced a weekly decline of 1.25%. The main reason is that the contradiction of oversupply is difficult to alleviate, and the supply pressure has increased. The early maintenance equipment has been gradually restored, and the operating rate of manufacturers has increased. Coupled with the poor performance of the urea market, some manufacturers have switched to ammonia, which has further exacerbated the contradiction of oversupply in the ammonia market. From the beginning of the week to the weekend, some mainstream large factories in Shandong generally lowered their prices by 50-100 yuan/ton. Distributors mainly underreport shipments. And downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, agricultural demand is still in the off-season, industrial demand remains rigid, and the overall demand side is bearish. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is 2500-2600 yuan/ton.

Prediction: The market enters the traditional off-season, fertilizer procurement cools down, downstream fertilizer factory operating rates significantly decrease, industrial demand follows suit, supply is sufficient, and supply pressure may continue to increase in the later stage. But in the later stage, the market will show regional differentiation. On the one hand, the operating rate will decline with the decrease of prices. In addition, rainy and snowy weather in Northeast China, Inner Mongolia and other places may put pressure on transportation, and local supply may be scarce. Considering all factors, the price of liquid ammonia may still be difficult to improve next week. The main production areas will continue to decline, but some areas may stop falling and stabilize. Local differentiation may bring about price fluctuations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of domestic toluene market at the beginning of 2024 is 6570 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the year is 6050 yuan/ton, with an annual decline of 7.91%. The overall trend of the toluene market in 2024 is weak and can be divided into two stages. In the first half of the year, it fluctuated upwards and then experienced a slight correction, followed by a continuous decline in the second half of the year.

From the monthly K-bar chart of Shengyi Society’s toluene market, it can be seen that in 2024, the toluene market experienced more declines than gains. There were four months of upward movement and seven months of downward movement, with the highest increase in January being 5.63% and the highest decrease in September being 13.89%.

Note: The K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart. Investors can make buying and selling investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar represents the range of rise and fall.

1、 Review of the toluene market in 2024

First half of the year: Supported by favorable supply and demand, it rose 14.76%

In the first half of 2024, the overall prices of crude oil and naphtha will rise, especially in the first quarter where the increase is significant, and the cost will face strong market support. The supply side showed a tight performance throughout the first half of the year, firstly due to high and then low port inventory in the East China region, with overall good destocking situation. Secondly, there was a wave of centralized maintenance of domestic facilities after March and April, which affected the market supply in April and May. Under the influence of market expectations of tight supply, refinery prices continued to rise, especially with the increase of export enterprises in Shandong region, which led to high market activity and continued upward trend in the spot market. Overall, the supply side support was good in the first half of the year. The downstream disproportionation industry on the demand side performed well in the first half of the year, with overall high profits and stable and positive demand for toluene. The export volume of toluene steadily increased from January to May, with good demand support. Although before the May Day holiday, due to the fact that the price of toluene was already at its highest point of the year, downstream high-level receiving capacity declined, and demand expectations were insufficient, the toluene market experienced a wave of decline in mid to late April. After entering June, prices rebounded again under the boost of the diversified industry. Overall, in the first half of 2024, supported by both supply and demand, the toluene market maintained a high level of operation.

In the second half of the year, both supply and demand fell to a two-year low

In the second half of 2024, the toluene market first stabilized and then fell, with a cumulative decline of 19.76%. After entering the third quarter, geopolitical and storm premium factors eased, and the crude oil market fell under pressure. Brent and WTI successively fell below the $70 mark, and the trend of naphtha prices was also weak, resulting in a bearish overall cost performance. Since late July, the supply side has resumed production of equipment that entered maintenance in the first half of the year. The total domestic operating rate has increased from nearly 60% to around 75%, indicating a significant easing of market supply. At the same time, there was a significant increase in import volume in the second half of the year. In August alone, the import volume reached 19489.31 tons, an increase of 280.69% month on month and 281.74% year-on-year, significantly exceeding the total import volume of 5722.88 tons from January to June. The overall supply performance in the second half of the year was bearish. In the second half of the year, the downstream disproportionation industry performed well on the demand side, and overall demand remained stable, providing essential support for the toluene market. But in the oil blending industry, which performed well in the first half of the year, as the price difference between xylene and toluene continued to decrease or even invert, the intention of the oil blending industry to purchase toluene continued to shrink, and the demand side performance weakened. Overall, under the dual negative impact of supply and demand, the toluene market has been declining, falling to a low level in nearly two years.

2、 Industrial chain structure

Toluene is an important organic chemical raw material, and its production is mainly achieved through two pathways: petroleum refining and coal chemical industry. Petroleum refining mainly involves the hydrogenation extraction of crude benzene from fractionated coal tar to obtain hydrogenated toluene; Coal chemical industry is the extraction of petroleum toluene from catalytic cracking of naphtha.

The downstream products of toluene mainly include TDI, benzoic acid, phenol, caprolactam, and PTA. It has a wide range of applications, including blending gasoline to increase its octane rating, as well as preparing various toluene derivatives such as xylene, o-xylene, benzyl alcohol, etc. Its application terminals involve industries such as petrochemicals, fuels, pesticides, and synthetic materials.

3、 Outlook for the toluene market in 2025:

Cost side: The 2025 oil price range is fluctuating, and the cost side support is relatively stable

The International Energy Agency predicts that by 2025, under the premise of maintaining the current level of production policy in OPEC+, global oil supply will show a surplus of over 1 million barrels. Business Society believes that the supply-demand balance in 2025 will transition from a tight equilibrium state to a balanced state, mainly based on the current production capacity and the premise of moderate growth in US crude oil supply in the future; In addition, it is also based on the current geopolitical foundation, without further intensifying geopolitical conflicts and taking into account the risk premium. Therefore, the upward range of oil prices is suppressed. In addition, major institutions are relatively pessimistic and conservative about oil prices in 2025, with Brent’s average oil price generally predicted to be in the range of $73-76. The prediction of oil prices by Business Society for 2025 basically conforms to this viewpoint

Raw material surface: The production of naphtha is steadily increasing, and the supply of raw materials is sufficient

Naphtha is the main raw material for producing toluene, and its production and operation will directly affect the development of the toluene industry. With the continuous improvement of China’s refining capacity and the sustained release of downstream market demand for naphtha, China’s naphtha production continues to steadily increase. Data shows that the cumulative production of naphtha in China from January to November 2024 is about 73.3 million tons. Currently, the main production areas of naphtha in China are Shandong, Guangdong, Liaoning and other provinces, with Shandong Province having the most prominent production. The steady growth of naphtha production provides important raw material guarantees for the development of the toluene industry.

Supply side: Expected increase in toluene supply by 2025

Toluene is an important chemical raw material, and the demand in the international and domestic markets is constantly increasing. In recent years, driven by increased downstream demand and good export performance, China’s toluene enterprises have actively expanded their capacity and production. Domestic toluene production capacity continues to rise, and new facilities will continue to be put into operation in the future. Affected by the production development direction of reducing oil and increasing chemical production, the willingness of main refineries and local refining enterprises to export toluene has increased. Especially in the Shandong region, the performance has been outstanding, with the addition of toluene production capacity increasing by over 50% in the past three years. In the future, production enterprises will place greater emphasis on the toluene commodity market, with increased enthusiasm for exports. It is expected that the domestic market supply of toluene will continue to rise by 2025.

Demand side: Stable with upward trend

Toluene has a wide range of applications, including blending gasoline and preparing various toluene derivatives such as xylene, o-xylene, benzyl alcohol, etc. At present, the downstream consumption structure of toluene in China is stable, with oil blending accounting for about 52%, disproportionation accounting for about 26%, solvents accounting for about 12%, and TDI and other components accounting for about 10%. It can be seen that the main downstream consumption of toluene is still gasoline blends. As an octane enhancer, toluene can improve the combustion performance of gasoline, reduce exhaust emissions, and better meet national environmental requirements. With the increase of domestic car ownership, the consumption of gasoline has also increased, driving the demand for toluene to increase. However, due to the continuous improvement of domestic gasoline quality requirements, the proportion of toluene added has decreased in recent years. In addition, with the increasing proportion of new energy passenger vehicles, the demand growth rate of toluene in gasoline blends is relatively slow. However, with the increase in production capacity of the disproportionation device, the demand for disproportionation is expected to increase in the future. Overall, the demand for toluene industry is stable with an upward trend.

Export surface: The export volume of toluene is steadily increasing

Between 2017 and 2021, the import volume of toluene in China was significantly higher than the export volume, but this situation has changed significantly in 2022. Since 2022, there has been a significant increase in the export volume of toluene in China, which has completely transformed the country from a net importer of toluene to a net exporter of toluene in the same year. Specifically, the import volume of toluene (29023000) in China in 2022 was 67700 tons, a decrease of 67% compared to 206200 tons in 2021; The export volume was 649000 tons, an increase of 571% year-on-year from 96700 tons in 2021.

According to customs data, China exported a total of 471000 tons of toluene from January to November 2024, an increase of 13500 tons compared to the same period in 2023 and a year-on-year increase of 2.94%. It is expected that the export volume of toluene in 2024 will exceed the 508000 tons in 2023, and the export volume will reach a new high, which will provide certain positive support for the domestic market.

Market forecast:

In the short term, the toluene market at the end of the fourth quarter has seen a certain rebound in prices, driven by the strengthening of the oil blending industry in Shandong and the release of traditional downstream stocking demand in December. The increasing demand in the disproportionation industry led to a small upward trend in the toluene market at the end of the fourth quarter, and maintained a high volatility trend until the end of December. In the upcoming year of 2025, there do not seem to be many bright spots in terms of cost and supply, and the overall trend is stable. However, there are still positive developments on the demand side, and there is still room for growth in the oil blending market in Shandong before and after the Spring Festival. The disproportionation industry is also boosted by high prices of pure benzene, and there are certain positive factors. In recent years, the export performance has been impressive, and with the support of favorable demand, it is expected that there will still be some upward space in the toluene market at the beginning of the 25th.

In the long run, the international crude oil price range will fluctuate in 2025, and the cost of toluene will still support the expected increase in supply. Downstream demand still has some room for growth. Overall, the future demand performance is more worthy of attention. With the interweaving of negative and positive market conditions on the supply and demand side, it is expected that the toluene market will continue to maintain a range oscillation trend in 2025.