Recently, lithium carbonate has continued its weak downward trend. As of November 3rd, the benchmark price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 93000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22% from the same period last month’s 120000 yuan/ton, and a drop of nearly 55% from the high point of 200000 yuan this year. The roller coaster market is still continuing.
Supply side: Long term easing expectations continue to be suppressed
The supply side is the dominant factor in this round of decline. Domestic salt lake lithium extraction has entered a seasonal high production period, with production in September increasing by over 80% year-on-year, and monthly production climbing to around 22000 tons; The monthly average production of lithium extracted from spodumene remained stable at 63000 tons, a significant increase from 42000 tons in the same period last year. In terms of imports, South American salt lake lithium salt exports remain high, and Zimbabwean lithium concentrate continues to increase in volume upon arrival at ports after the lifting of export restrictions, further consolidating the market’s judgment on future supply easing.
It is worth noting that although Jiangxi lithium mica is constrained by mining rights rectification and its resumption of production has not yet been realized in terms of output, the lingering expectation of resumption itself constitutes suppression – after the environmental impact assessment announcement of Jianxiawo Mine expired on October 28th, the market’s expectation of resumption after December continues to rise.
Demand side: Weak production scheduling, insufficient color during peak season
There is a marginal weakening signal on the demand side. According to industry data, battery production in November decreased by about 5% month on month, marking the first month on month decline of the year; There are also signs of weakening in energy storage production, with a month on month increase of only about 5.3% in October and the possibility of a downward revision. The narrowing of domestic peak valley price differences and the incomplete implementation of policies such as capacity electricity prices have put pressure on the economy of energy storage, resulting in a slowdown in customer delivery speed.
However, the urgent need for power batteries still exists. In September, the installed capacity of power batteries reached a new high of 87.2 GWh, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has approached 50%. The continuous increase in single vehicle charging capacity has formed a certain resilience support for demand.
Inventory and Cost: Low inventory provides cushioning pads
Continuous destocking throughout the entire process is the main support for the current fundamentals. The social inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased from about 110000 tons at the beginning of the year to around 51000 tons, with a cumulative reduction of over 50%; The inventory of upstream smelters has dropped to 7500 tons, the lowest level in the region with available data. After the price approaches 90000 yuan, the non integrated production capacity of lithium pyroxene from external mining is facing cost inversion, and some marginal production capacity is under pressure to reduce production. However, salt lake lithium extraction and integrated enterprises still maintain profits, and cost support is not rigid.
Future trend: Lithium carbonate is currently in a game of “weak reality tight balance” and “weak expectations far loose”. In the short term, with the expectation of long-term easing not being falsified and bearish funds still dominating, prices are likely to maintain a weak and volatile pattern around the 90000 yuan mark. At the same time, the downward space for lithium prices has gradually narrowed, but the trend reversal still needs to wait for a clear turning point signal from the fundamentals or funding side.

As of October 30th, the DBP price was 10750 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 3.85% compared to the DOP price of 10351.67 yuan/ton on October 1st. In October, DBP prices first fluctuated weakly and steadily, but continued to rise in the second half of the year due to the pull of raw materials. The monthly line closed higher, and the price was in the high range of nearly a year. The domestic DBP market presents a pattern of “upward shift in price center, passive contraction of supply, squeezed profits, and rigid demand but resistance to high prices”.
The increase in DBP prices in October was not significantly driven by demand, and the core driving force came from the continuous price hikes of upstream raw materials. N-butanol and phthalic anhydride form a resonant rise within the month, significantly increasing the overall cost of DBP. The increase in DBP prices is mostly due to cost transmission.
The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose in October
As of October 30th, the price of phthalic anhydride from neighboring countries was 10733.33 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and increased by 7.15% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride on October 1st, which was 10016.67 yuan/ton. Affected by device maintenance and tight supply of goods; The phthalic anhydride market in October showed a strong upward trend, with prominent gains in some periods, which is the core factor driving DBP.
The price of n-butanol fluctuated and consolidated in October
On October 30th, the price of n-butanol was 8500 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and consolidated compared to the price of 8500 yuan/ton on October 1st. In October, n-butanol continued to operate at a high level, providing auxiliary cost support for DBP.
Supply side: Low production and tight supply
The overall operating load of DBP in China has decreased to 37.5%, a decrease of 7% compared to September; The contraction of profits has forced the shutdown and maintenance of equipment, and the industry has taken proactive measures to control the quantity; Although the quotation has been raised, the overall inventory pressure of the factory is not significant, and there is no significant selling pressure on the circulating spot goods, providing conditions for the quotation increase; Under the dual pressure of high costs and downstream price pressures, some devices choose to shut down or reduce their load, resulting in a “shrinking and rising price” characteristic on the supply side.
Future prospects
Analysts believe that the cost side of the DBP market in October drove prices up, but the demand side refused to pay for the increase, resulting in profit compression and triggering supply contraction. Under the balance between cost and supply, DBP prices fluctuated more in October. In the future, DBP’s upward support mainly comes from the raw material side. If n-butanol, isooctanol or phthalic anhydride experience unexpected increases again, DBP cost support will be further strengthened, and prices may be forced to continue to rise, but downstream acceptance will face greater challenges. The expected DBP prices in the future are expected to fluctuate and consolidate at a high level.

In October 2026, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market rose, with an average price of 16205 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 16215 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly increase of 0.06%.
In October 2026, the domestic lead market showed a significant trend of “first suppression and then rise”. From the beginning to the middle of the month, due to weak demand and macroeconomic sentiment, lead prices experienced a deep correction; Subsequently, in mid to late month, with the support of raw material costs and downstream inventory replenishment, lead prices rebounded strongly and reached a high point at the end of the month. The overall price volatility has increased, and the market has experienced a reversal trend from weak to strong.
supply side
The lead price dropped significantly in early October, mainly due to the recovery of production after refinery maintenance, as well as ample spot market liquidity brought by the delivery of some brands. However, as we entered the latter half of the year, there was a temporary tightening of the supply side due to sudden environmental restrictions or routine maintenance of some primary and recycled lead refineries. In addition, the strong reluctance of holders to sell at high prices has led to tight spot circulation, supporting a significant increase in prices at the end of the month.
Demand side
Downstream lead-acid battery companies (especially electric bicycle and car starter batteries) adopted a “buy up, not buy down” strategy in the first and middle of October, mainly to digest inventory, resulting in sluggish market transactions. But as the end of the month and the “Double Eleven” stocking period approached, downstream buyers’ willingness to buy on dips erupted, and the concentrated replenishment behavior directly ignited the month end rally.
Comprehensive Summary
To sum up, the lead market completed the transformation from “de foam” to “cost reshaping” in October. The current technical situation is in a multi headed arrangement, and the cost support on the raw material side is extremely strong. It is expected that lead prices will maintain a strong and volatile pattern in November, and it is necessary to closely monitor the impact of downstream battery plant operating rates and environmental policies on the production of recycled lead. In the short term, we need to be alert to the technical pullback risk after the sharp rise at the end of the month.

At the beginning of the month, the price of 50% potassium sulfate was 3926 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price of 50% potassium sulfate was 3750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.50% in price.
This month, the market price of potassium sulfate has been weak, and the autumn base fertilizer has basically ended. The finished product inventory of compound fertilizer enterprises is high, and the average operating rate of the equipment is about 31.02%. The factory mainly delivers preliminary orders and maintains small order procurement for potassium sulfate. There has been no centralized replenishment yet. Domestic potassium shipments are stable, imported potassium continues to arrive at the port, and the market supply is abundant. Although processing potassium sulfate enterprises have lowered their load, the weekly operating rate is still only 29.63%, and the situation of oversupply has not been reversed.
The downward trend in potassium chloride prices has reduced some of the raw material pressure on potassium sulfate; At the same time, the regional price difference of sulfuric acid has widened, and the high priced inventory in the early stage is still being digested. Mannheim Enterprises suffered a comprehensive loss of about 235 yuan/ton, so the manufacturer’s quotation was relatively resistant to decline, but the low-end transaction price continued to loosen.
Prediction: The trading volume of potassium sulfate market is lower than expected, and it is expected that the domestic potassium fertilizer market price will mainly fluctuate and weaken in the short term.

On October 27th, the price of isooctanol was 10033.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 10.05% compared to the price of 9116.67 yuan/ton on October 1st. Cost push pushed isooctanol unilaterally up to a new high for the year in October. From the holiday to the 10th and 14th, the price of propylene surged, and the cost of isooctanol continued to rise. From the 14th to the 24th, the price of propylene fell, the support for the rise of isooctanol weakened, and the price of isooctanol stabilized; From the 24th to the 27th, the price of propylene rose again, and the price of isooctanol reached a new high.
The price of raw material propylene fluctuates and rises
On October 27th, the propylene price was 10801 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 11.26% compared to the propylene price of 9707.67 yuan/ton on October 1st. The escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has led to a significant increase in crude oil prices in October, which has provided a cost floor for propylene and isooctanol, causing a volatile rise in propylene prices. The rise in costs has led to a significant increase in the price of isooctanol.
Supply side
In October, the overall operating rate of the isooctanol industry was 68% -73%. During the National Day holiday, the operating rate decreased significantly, but slowly resumed after the holiday. During the upward trend, the market briefly traded “overall tight spot supply”; With the increase in the operating rate of isooctanol equipment, the supply of isooctanol is stable. ‘Tightness’ is more of a short-term mismatch based on regional and rhythmic factors, rather than a global shortage. Once the price reaches the downstream tolerance limit and the procurement pace slows down, the support from the supply side will quickly weaken, and the continuous rise of isooctanol will lack sufficient support.
Demand side: Low downstream operating rate, hidden concerns about high price acceptance
The operating rate of DOP devices in October was 45-57%, which is at a medium to low level. The downstream operating rate is also low, and there is insufficient demand follow-up. The increase in DOP is more cost driven than order driven. Plasticizer companies maintain low production and on-demand procurement at high raw material prices, and there is a clear upper limit to their ability to accept further increases in isooctanol. When the price of isooctanol approaches the 10000 yuan mark, downstream resistance will become a hard constraint for the continued upward trend of isooctanol prices.
Outlook for the coming period
Analysts believe that the price of isooctanol is at a new high for the year, but the upward potential is very limited, and there is a high risk of price decline in the future. The rise in isooctanol in October was almost entirely driven by costs, and the demand side increment was insufficient, and the supply side operating rate did not constitute a hard shortage. In the future, the risk return ratio for continuing to chase higher prices in the short term is clearly unfavorable. The expected high volatility of isooctanol prices is weak, and the center of gravity is prone to a slight decline.

Commodity market: In October, the mainstream market for polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ion degree) in China remained stable, with a main market price of around 14080 yuan/ton on the 26th.
The core of polyacrylamide production relies on upstream raw materials such as acrylonitrile. In October, the acrylonitrile market first rose and then fell, with a slight overall increase. As of October 26, the average price of acrylonitrile was 10900 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.08% from the price of 10783.33 yuan/ton on October 1. This month, changes in the supply and demand of raw materials, as well as the pace of factory shipments, have driven price fluctuations. On site trading has followed the market fluctuations, while downstream demand has mainly followed suit. The market mentality has fluctuated greatly, and the short-term market is still affected by the combination of equipment start-up and downstream procurement pace.
In terms of downstream, the current focus is mainly on environmental protection areas such as sewage treatment and sludge dewatering. Municipal sewage and industrial wastewater treatment enterprises mainly rely on replenishment for urgent needs, with weak willingness to purchase in large quantities. Downstream companies tend to purchase as needed, with a strong wait-and-see attitude and a lack of sustained favorable support for procurement, making it difficult to drive up prices; At the same time, there has been no significant decline in downstream orders, and there is no pressure to force manufacturers to lower prices and sell goods, forming a weak balance between supply and demand.
Market forecast: Currently, domestic polyacrylamide production enterprises have relatively stable operating loads, sufficient supply of spot goods, conservative pricing strategies of mainstream manufacturers, and no willingness to adjust prices at the moment; At the end of the month, the acrylonitrile market stopped falling and rebounded, supported by the cost of polyacrylamide. Overall, it is expected that the domestic cationic polyacrylamide market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in November.

1、 Price trend

This week, the price of bromine has been rising and running in the market. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 40800 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 42200 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.43% and a year-on-year increase of 43.05%. On October 22, the bromine index was 148.07, up 0.7 points from yesterday, down 39.89% from the highest point of 246.32 points during the cycle (2026-04-07), and up 151.31% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
This week, the price of bromine has been rising and running in the market. The recent price of bromine in Shandong region is around 42000-42500 yuan/ton, and the current price range for bromine shipments is around 42000-42500 yuan/ton. Manufacturers’ inventories are generally low, and there is a clear upward trend in prices. The terminal maintains the strategy of purchasing for essential needs, and the holding merchants have a strong reluctance to sell. The quotation is adjusted upwards according to market transactions. In terms of demand, the downstream flame retardant field still relies mainly on rigid procurement, with insufficient ability to undertake current high priced sources and limited overall enthusiasm for purchasing.
In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have fallen overall this week, with an average market price of 6076.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 5714.25 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 5.97%, a decrease of 2.45% compared to the same period last year, and an increase of 89.36% compared to the same period last year. Downstream demand is still acceptable.
Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to remain strong in the near future, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to remain weak. Bromine supply is expected to have low inventory levels in the near future, and downstream demand is expected to purchase on demand. The overall trading atmosphere is bleak, and the overall supply-demand game is expected to be dominated by high fluctuations in bromine prices in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend
On October 22, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium in Hubei Province was 3613 yuan/ton, and on October 16, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium in Hubei Province was 3656 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of ammonium phosphate fell by 1.19%.
2、 Market analysis
This week, the market for ammonium phosphate continued to weaken and decline. The price of raw material sulfur continues to decline, and cost support is weakening. The operating rate of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises has decreased, and they mainly purchase raw materials on demand, resulting in limited new market transactions. As of October 22nd, the market price of 55 powder ammonium in Hubei region is around 3580-3680 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 3650-3700 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan region it is around 3600-3700 yuan/ton.
In terms of raw material sulfur. This week, the sulfur market continued to decline, with weak market transactions and high bearish sentiment. Downstream demand has been released, but transaction prices remain low. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market price will mainly be adjusted and operated in a wait-and-see manner.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts believe that the market trend of ammonium phosphate has been declining recently. The raw material market continues to be weak, with insufficient cost support. The autumn fertilizer market is coming to an end, and the trading atmosphere in the market is not good. It is expected that the short-term market for ammonium phosphate will continue to operate weakly.

In early October, the dichloromethane market continued its upward trend and the price center continued to shift upwards; In mid October, it rose and then consolidated at a high level, followed by a significant decline on October 19-20. The current market has shifted from strong support of “cost+supply” in the early stage to a pullback stage under insufficient high-level demand, and is expected to experience weak fluctuations in the short term. As of October 20th, the mixed price of dichloromethane in Shandong region was 3020 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.16% from the beginning of the month.
Analysis of Core Driving Factors
Cost side:
After the holiday, methanol rose first, and the price of liquid chlorine was also at a high level, driving the rise of dichloromethane. In the middle of the month, methanol quickly plunged from rising to falling; And dichloromethane continues to rise against the trend, indicating that this round of market trend is not solely driven by cost. Methane chloride enterprises face significant cost pressures, with low industry operating loads and tight spot supply. The main driving force behind the market trend is factory control of quantity and price. Recently, the continuous decline of raw material methanol coupled with high prices suppressing downstream demand procurement has made it difficult to sustain high prices, and dichloromethane has entered a phase of correction.
Supply and demand side:
Supply: After the holiday, the industry’s operating load has further decreased compared to the previous period. Low operating hours, combined with pre holiday stocking and post holiday replenishment, have led to rapid consumption of social inventory. Enterprise inventory has generally fallen to a low level, with some areas experiencing tight supply and limited sales, driving the market to continue to rise. But as prices continue to rise, the high price dividend gradually fades away, and the confidence of factories to raise prices loosens.
Demand: Under high prices, downstream procurement attitudes have become noticeably cautious, with more wait-and-see and temporarily not stocking up in large quantities. The company’s shipment volume is lower than expected, and shipping pressure is transmitted from the production end to the trade end. The demand side has limited capacity to undertake, and downstream procurement in the fields of R32 refrigerants, coating adhesives, pharmaceutical solvents, etc. is still mainly based on rigid demand. The production of downstream refrigerants is not high, and the increment is limited under the quota constraints in the fourth quarter; The export increment is limited, and the acceptance of high priced goods by terminals is weak. The transaction atmosphere has not strengthened synchronously.
Future forecast
The short-term market is mainly weak and volatile, and there is room for further downward price exploration. The current downward trend in methanol prices has weakened the cost support force; High prices suppress downstream procurement, and there is a lack of follow-up on demand. Traders are more willing to ship at high prices, and market sentiment is bearish. However, the overall inventory of enterprises is not high, coupled with the expectation of equipment maintenance in November, the space for deep decline is limited, and there is support below.

1、 Price trend

As of October 16th, the price of high-quality power type lithium iron phosphate is 50000 yuan/ton. Today, the domestic lithium iron phosphate market maintains structural differentiation, with weak transactions for ordinary low compaction products and price pressure. The supply of high-pressure solid power and long cycle energy storage brands is tight, maintaining a premium. Currently, the mainstream transactions for power type lithium iron phosphate are 52000-55000 yuan/ton, and 51500-53000 yuan/ton for energy storage type. The market is mainly focused on long-term contract order delivery, with few individual transactions. Battery companies maintain on-demand procurement and adopt a wait-and-see attitude.
2、 Market analysis
Operating rate: The industry has obvious differentiation in operating rates, with sufficient orders from top integrated large factories and high operating rates of 85% -92% for equipment. Priority is given to ensuring the production of high-pressure solid and energy storage special materials. Small and medium-sized non integrated enterprises are affected by insufficient orders and profit compression, and operating rates are maintained at a low level of 45% -60%. Some small factories are temporarily reducing loads and conducting maintenance and production control. The overall industry average operating rate is about 70%. At the inventory level, low-end ordinary brand inventory accumulates, and there is a high pressure to reduce inventory. High end high-pressure physical product inventory is low, and delivery cycles are prolonged. There is currently no concentrated release of new production capacity in the short term.
Upstream costs: The core raw material lithium carbonate continues to operate weakly today, with prices falling, weakening the cost support for lithium iron phosphate; The price range of iron phosphate fluctuates, while the supply of raw materials such as phosphate ore and ferrous sulfate is stable with limited fluctuations. Integrated enterprises rely on their own phosphate ore and supporting iron phosphate production lines, with outstanding advantages in raw material costs; Small and medium-sized manufacturers that purchase raw materials for production continue to see their processing profits compressed. Overall, the downward trend in lithium prices has dragged down the overall cost center and loosened the bottom support for iron and lithium. However, there is currently no significant downward space for the phosphorus source end, and a weak balance pattern has formed on the cost end.
In terms of demand: downstream battery industry differentiation, new energy vehicle power batteries: domestic vehicle production is stable, terminal new energy vehicle promotion continues, battery factories mainly consume raw material inventory in the early stage, cautious in new procurement, use as needed, and no centralized replenishment; Overseas power orders remain stable. The energy storage sector is the main increment. Domestic energy storage bidding continues to land, overseas energy storage orders are increasing, and the demand for long cycle energy storage lithium iron phosphate is strong. Top material companies are locking in long-term orders until the following quarters. However, the inventory of battery finished products is high, and battery cell factories have a strong willingness to lower prices, resulting in weak bargaining power for low-end materials. Overall demand presents a pattern of strong energy storage, stable ordinary power, and weak low-end demand.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts believe that in the short term, the structural differentiation of lithium iron phosphate continues, with ordinary grades under pressure and fluctuating. High end energy storage and high-pressure real power materials remain strong. Negative factors include overcapacity at the low-end of the industry, weak lithium carbonate prices dragging down the cost side, and no significant explosion in terminal consumption of power batteries. Battery companies maintain a low inventory strategy, and there is significant resistance to the upward trend of ordinary grade prices.