According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 25th, the average price of domestic battery grade lithium carbonate was 77460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.7% from 78800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and a decrease of 2.91% from 79780 yuan/ton at the beginning of February; The average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in China is 74700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.23% from 76400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and a decrease of 2.48% from 76600 yuan/ton at the beginning of February.

The destocking cycle has ended, and the supply-demand imbalance remains prominent

At present, the lithium carbonate market has sufficient supply, coupled with the resumption of production of the top suspended projects in Yichun, social inventory remains high. According to the latest statistical data, the spot inventory of lithium carbonate is 112500 tons, including 42800 tons in smelters, 29800 tons in downstream inventory, and 40000 tons in other inventories.

The supply of raw materials has increased, resulting in a slight decrease in prices

After the holiday, lithium salt factories and processing plants gradually resumed production, coupled with the start of some new production lines, resulting in a significant increase in supply and increasing pressure.

After the new year, the arrival of port goods will gradually increase the supply of lithium mines. Due to the short-term mismatch between supply and demand, the price of lithium carbonate may rebound and fall back.

Downstream demand and production scheduling have not shown significant improvement, and material factories remain on the sidelines

Before the Spring Festival, downstream material factories made sufficient inventory preparations in advance, and only some manufacturers had a small amount of inventory needs to be replenished. Some material factories have signed long-term agreements with some downstream battery cell factories, continuing the low discount situation of last year. There is currently no clear guidance on production scheduling in March, which has led to weak downstream procurement demand.

Macro perspective: The United States’ containment of Chinese batteries

US President Trump signed an executive order in February 2025 announcing a 10% tariff on all Chinese goods imported to the United States. Combined with the current 3.4% base tariff of the United States on Chinese battery products and the 25% Section 301 tariff on energy storage batteries that will be implemented in 2026 (which already applies to power batteries), the cumulative tariff on Chinese batteries will reach 38.4% under the impact of the new policy. This policy will increase the export costs of Chinese battery companies and reduce their price advantage in the US market. Some companies may face issues such as reduced orders and declining profits.

Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that downstream battery exports are hindered, coupled with oversupply on the supply side, making lithium carbonate prone to decline but difficult to rise in the near future. Specific market supply and demand news still needs to be monitored.

This week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 21st, the price of isooctanol was 7733.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.33% from the price of 8016.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week. The price of plasticizers has fluctuated and fallen, and the replenishment of plasticizer enterprises has ended. The demand for isooctanol has decreased, and the downward pressure on isooctanol has increased.

Downstream plasticizer DOP prices fluctuate and fall

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 21st, the DOP price was 8513.75 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 1.16% compared to the DOP price of 8613.75 yuan/ton on February 14th last weekend. The price of plasticizer DOP has fallen, leading to a decrease in production by plasticizer companies. In addition, the end of stocking has resulted in a decrease in demand for plasticizers.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s octanol product, in the future, the operating load of plasticizer DOP enterprises will decrease this week, the production of plasticizers will decrease, and coupled with the end of inventory replenishment, the demand for isooctanol will decrease. It is expected that the price of isooctanol will fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 14th, the price of 0 # zinc was 23970 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 1.01% compared to the zinc price of 23730 yuan/ton on February 1st.

This week’s market analysis

This week, zinc prices fell in the early stage, fluctuated and adjusted in the middle stage, and rose over the weekend. At the macro level, the Trump administration recently announced the resumption of tariffs on imported goods, raising concerns in the market about the escalation of global trade frictions. This macro bearish trend continues to affect the commodity market, particularly exerting significant pressure on the upward potential of zinc prices.

Inventory end

This week, during the Chinese Spring Festival holiday in 2025, the accumulated social inventory of zinc ingots only reached 65% of the expected value, and the low inventory pattern exceeded the market prediction.

Demand side

There is support on the demand side. As downstream galvanized sheet and die-casting zinc alloy enterprises speed up production after the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival) Festival, stock replenishment is expected to continue to strengthen, forming a strong price support effect.

comprehensive analysis

After the holiday, the trend of zinc prices showed a trend of first suppressing and then rising. In the early stages, influenced by macro negative sentiment, zinc prices experienced a certain degree of decline. But subsequently, as fundamental factors gradually emerged and market concerns about global trade tensions eased, zinc prices began to rise. Afterwards, the zinc price fluctuated and consolidated within a certain range, forming a relatively stable trend. The actual demand recovery still takes time and is not fully in place yet. Zinc prices lack sufficient upward momentum in the short term, and the upward space is limited.

This week, the price of isooctanol rose and then fell back

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 17th, the price of isooctanol was 7950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83% from the price of 8016.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week; Compared to February 10th, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose by 7900 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.63%. The price of isooctanol rose and then fell, while the cost of plasticizer DOP decreased; The post holiday replenishment has ended, and the demand for isooctanol has fallen. The upward support for isooctanol has weakened, and the downward pressure has increased.

Downstream plasticizer DOP prices fluctuate and fall

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 17th, the DOP price was 8601.25 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.29% compared to the DOP price of 8626.25 yuan/ton on February 11th. The price of raw materials has fallen, and the cost of plasticizer DOP has decreased. After the Spring Festival, the replenishment of inventory has ended, and the demand for plasticizers has decreased. The demand support for cost reduction has weakened, and the downward pressure on plasticizers has increased.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s octanol products, in the future, plasticizer companies will have average production after the holiday, resulting in a decrease in demand for plasticizers. After the holiday replenishment ends, the support for demand for isooctanol will weaken, and it is expected that the price of isooctanol will slightly fall in the future.

According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 14th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 11500.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month.

Supply side: The market situation has remained stable this week, with enterprises actively starting production, and some regions experiencing tight supply of goods.

Raw material side: The price of raw material fluorite has risen this week. The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 14th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s fluorite was 3628.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.35% compared to the beginning of this month (3616.25 yuan/ton).

Recently, the market price trend of raw material sulfuric acid has remained stable. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 14th, the benchmark price of sulfuric acid in Shengyi Society was 387.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.65% compared to the beginning of this month (385.00 yuan/ton).

Demand side: Downstream refrigerant quotas are abundant, and downstream refrigerant companies may increase their procurement of hydrofluoric acid. Some companies have a strong reluctance to sell, resulting in price increases and strong support from the demand side for refrigerants.

Market forecast: Fluorite on the raw material side will rise, downstream refrigerant quotas will be abundant, and market demand will increase. Under the expectation of both positive supply and demand, it is expected that the hydrofluoric acid market will operate steadily with a moderate to strong trend. More attention should be paid to the news of leading enterprises and the market supply and demand situation.

This week (2.1-2.8), the dichloromethane market rebounded. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on February 8th, the average price of dichloromethane water in Shandong Province was 2495 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.22%;

The dichloromethane market is stable with a slight increase, with rising costs, loose supply performance, insufficient downstream demand, and low on-site trading enthusiasm. On February 8th, the ex factory price of mainstream dichloromethane in Shandong region was around 2450-2480 yuan/ton.

Supply side: The starting load has increased this week

Cost wise: Demand is slowly recovering, shipping pressure is easing, and prices of methanol and liquid chlorine continue to rise. On February 7th, the spot price of methanol at Shengyi Society was 2665.83 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.14% from the beginning of the month.

On the demand side: The atmosphere of the Spring Festival has not yet ended, and the activity of the refrigerant market is still low. Factories are resuming production one after another, and the overall industry is still under load. The current offer has risen to 43000 yuan/ton, and the sound of price increase continues.

Business analysts believe that after the holiday, with the recovery of logistics capacity, the increase in downstream production, and the strengthening of market demand, it will support the stable, medium, and strong operation of dichloromethane.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine has remained stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week was 21800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.54% compared to the same period last year. On January 23, the Business Society Bromine Index was 76.49, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 68.80% from the highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27) during the cycle, and an increase of 29.82% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of bromine is running steadily, and in the Shandong region, the price of bromine is running steadily. The mainstream market price is around 21500-22000 yuan/ton, and manufacturers are conducting centralized maintenance. Most downstream manufacturers have also stopped production. Downstream demand is weak. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have remained stable, with an average market price of 1644.33 yuan/ton from the beginning of the week to the weekend, an increase of 78.76% compared to the same period last year. Downstream demand is generally average.

Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to remain stable in the near future, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to remain stable. Downstream bromine stocking before the holiday has been basically completed, and demand is mainly based on on-demand procurement. The overall supply-demand game predicts that bromine prices may continue to consolidate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market will first rise and then fall in January 2025, with an overall upward trend. From January 1st to 23rd, the domestic market price of toluene increased from 6050 yuan/ton to 6700 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 10.74% during the period.

In the first half of the month, the overall trend of the toluene market was upward, and trading in the spot market improved significantly compared to the previous period. During this period, the strong operation of crude oil led to an improvement in the atmosphere of the spot market. The overall supply in Shandong region is tight, and the procurement of the oil blending industry is good, which has boosted the mentality of refineries. The factory quotation has been raised multiple times this week.

In the second half of the month, as downstream inventory replenishment intentions decline near the Spring Festival, market purchasing intentions gradually tighten. Due to insufficient demand, the toluene market will experience a pullback in the second half of the month

On the cost side: The international oil price market has risen significantly this cycle, and as of the 22nd, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $75.44 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is reported at $79.00 per barrel. During this cycle, crude oil prices have risen significantly. On the one hand, the OPEC+production reduction agreement has been extended until the end of the first quarter, and some oil producing countries are still implementing compensatory production cuts. The United States has increased sanctions against Russia, and there are strong concerns about supply shortages. The supply of crude oil has been supported by favorable factors, leading to a significant increase in crude oil market prices. On the other hand, the instability of the situation in the Middle East still exists, and the arrival of winter cold waves in Europe and America is expected to further boost fuel demand, which is good news for the international oil market.

Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene quotation has been raised multiple times during the cycle. Currently, the company is operating normally, with stable plant production and many products for self use, resulting in stable production and sales. As of January 23rd, East China Company quoted 6700 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6700 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6650-6700 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6700 yuan/ton.

Demand side:

On January 23rd, the price of xylene in the petrochemical sales company was temporarily stable, and the current execution price is 7300 yuan/ton. This price is implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other units are operating stably and selling normally, with a price increase of 200 yuan/ton compared to December 31st. PX prices have risen both inside and outside the cycle. As of January 22, the closing prices of the Asian xylene market were 856-858 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 881-883 US dollars/ton CFR China. The price has increased by $44/ton compared to December 31st.

Market forecast: The recent stable to strong trend of crude oil will provide a certain boost to the toluene market. The demand side has performed relatively well recently, and the Shandong region has performed well recently. However, with the downstream procurement intention coming to an end, there is currently a lack of market buying potential. Recently, the inventory of ports in East China has been relatively high on the supply side, and it is expected that there will be some room for downward adjustment in the toluene market in the short term.

Product Name: Isopropanol

Latest price: The market average price on January 22nd was 6660 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day.

Analysis points: The isopropanol market is currently stable and operating. The upstream acetone market is fluctuating at a high level, and cost support is still acceptable. As the end of the year approaches, downstream market inquiries are average, market trading is cautious, and trading is limited. Overall, the market enthusiasm is average and the market is relatively stagnant.

It is expected that the isopropanol market will stabilize and operate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 20th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 8075.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -3.00% compared to the beginning of this month (8325.00 yuan/ton). In early January 2025, the price of epichlorohydrin was relatively high, but subsequently, due to the impact of increased production capacity and the willingness of manufacturers to quickly release inventory, the price began to decline. The second half of the month was mainly characterized by price fluctuations and consolidation.

Price influencing factors: Supply side: Due to the planned resumption of production for most factory maintenance equipment in December, the market supply has increased.

Raw material side: The rise and fall of liquid chloropropene on the raw material side varies. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of January 20th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 7008.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.52% compared to the beginning of this month (6835.75 yuan/ton).

Downstream demand side: As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream enterprises have seen a certain increase in orders in the early stages. However, recent new orders have shown average performance, with insufficient follow-up on procurement and sluggish actual market transactions. Overall, during the off-season of market demand, the demand for epichlorohydrin is relatively weak.

Market forecast:

Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that with the restart and recovery of enterprise equipment, epoxy propane production has increased. Downstream demand side procurement is cautious and lacks follow-up, and there is a strong wait-and-see mentality. In addition, as the Spring Festival approaches, enterprises are gradually taking holidays and market closures. It is expected that the epoxy propane market will mainly experience fluctuations and consolidation, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.