In July, the domestic epoxy propane market showed a trend of first suppressing, then rising, and then rebounding, but there were signs of high-level loosening at the end of the month. At the beginning of the month, the price of epichlorohydrin hovered around the low point of the year (reference price of 7800 yuan/ton on July 1st); Subsequently, influenced by multiple favorable factors, the market rose strongly from July 9th onwards; As of July 27th, the spot price of epichlorohydrin has risen to 10000 yuan/ton. But by the end of the month, there were signs of high-level loosening in the market. According to the monitoring system, as of July 28th, the benchmark price of epichlorohydrin was 9400.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.51% compared to the beginning of this month.
Raw material side: In the first half of the month, the price of raw material propylene rose at a high level. Against the backdrop of high prices of raw material propylene and energy, all process routes of epoxy propane have entered a loss zone. The cost inversion forces production enterprises to lose their profit margins, and raising prices to support the market has become an industry consensus. In the second half of the month, as the price of propylene fell, the cost support for epoxy propane weakened. However, at that time, the epoxy propane industry was undergoing large-scale factory maintenance, shutdown, or load reduction, and the tight supply pattern made the epoxy propane price show a certain resistance to decline. After a brief decline, it immediately rose and surged. According to the monitoring system, as of July 28th, the benchmark price of propylene was 7767.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.81% compared to the beginning of this month (7411.00 yuan/ton).
Supply side: In July, multiple sets of epoxy propane units in China were shut down or operated at reduced load. The daily production of the industry has been compressed to around 16000 tons, and the capacity utilization rate has dropped to 57.48%. The circulation of spot goods is tight, factories are controlling their export volume, and social inventory continues to decline to a low level.
On the demand side: In early July, there was a period of concentrated replenishment of epoxy propane downstream, but overall it still showed a slightly weak trend. From the perspective of the main downstream polyether polyols, July and August are the traditional off-season for demand, and downstream industries such as building insulation, soft furniture, and automotive interior have relatively average demand. The construction insulation industry is affected by the construction period and maintains a low season; Soft furniture is affected by the slowdown of the real estate completion cycle and high temperature weather, which hinders the foaming operation of sponge factories and weakens overall production; Some car companies in the automotive interior industry are experiencing high temperatures and holidays, resulting in reduced demand. In terms of other downstream aspects, the propylene glycol market has followed suit with multi-dimensional holding of essential needs, resulting in mediocre trading performance; The capacity utilization rate of unsaturated resin factories remains at a relatively low level of around 34%, showing an overall stable to weak trend. The overall downstream operating rate of epichlorohydrin is relatively low, while the operating rates of polyether and unsaturated resin are both at a low level.
Comprehensive forecast: Analysts believe that in the short term, geopolitics remains the biggest uncertain factor, and prices are prone to rise but difficult to fall under the pattern of cost support and tight supply. In the medium to long term, it is expected that 900000 tons/year of new facilities will be added or gradually put into operation in the second half of the year, and the market will return to the dominance of supply and demand fundamentals. The fluctuation range of prices is expected to narrow, and the overall situation may show a narrow range oscillation. More attention should be paid to the trend of propylene prices on the raw material side, the dynamics of plant start-up and shutdown, and the follow-up of downstream new orders.

As of the 26th, the price of ethyl acetate was 5860 yuan/ton, an increase of 16.67 yuan/ton or 0.29% compared to the price of 5843.33 yuan/ton on July 20th. The maintenance of the ethyl acetate unit and the follow-up of downstream market demand have led to an upward trend in the price of ethyl acetate due to the supply-demand game.
On the supply side, some units of ethyl acetate have been shut down for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in operating rates and an increase in the willingness of enterprises to raise prices; In terms of demand, the terminal market is in a traditional off-season, with downstream procurement mainly based on demand, and demand side support is average; At the same time, upstream acetic acid prices have loosened, cost support has weakened, and downstream and cost markets have suppressed the rise of ethyl ester prices. Under the psychological game, the center of gravity of ethyl acetate prices has narrowly shifted upward.
Looking at the future market, the operating rate of the ethyl acetate market is not high, with enterprises mainly pushing prices and downstream parties following up as needed. The market is limited, and there is an expected increase in supply in the later stage. The market mentality is cautious, and it is expected that ethyl acetate will be observed and consolidated in the short term, with narrow fluctuations in prices. Specific attention should be paid to the raw material market and downstream follow-up situation in the future.

In the second half of July, the domestic PS market showed a positive trend, with most grades experiencing significant increases in spot prices. As of July 24th, the benchmark price of PS is 10000 yuan/ton, with a price level increase of 11.73% compared to the beginning of the month.
Fundamental analysis
Cost factors: Recently, there have been fluctuations in the ceasefire talks between the United States and Iran in the Middle East, increasing shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz, and market concerns about international crude oil supply, leading to a rapid return of geopolitical premiums in oil prices. The rise in cost provides upward momentum for petroleum and pure benzene, which in turn boosts the price of styrene. However, the supply and demand expectations are still relatively loose, and the upward space for prices may be limited. It is expected that the styrene market will fluctuate weakly in the short term.
Supply and demand level: Recently, the domestic PS industry has experienced significant stability and small fluctuations. The domestic operating rate has been consistently low for a long time, and some facilities are still undergoing scheduled maintenance, resulting in an overall domestic load of around 50%. The inventory location is controllable, but the supply in some areas is tight. At the same time, with the addition of some inventory replenishment orders, the manufacturer has a strong willingness to raise prices, and the merchant is trying to overcharge. But currently, it is the traditional off-season market, and downstream product factories such as electrical appliances and packaging are digesting slowly. In addition, the high temperature weather continues, and terminal enterprises still have expectations of reduced production, resulting in low operating rates and weak demand for goods in the market. Currently, PS is still in a phase of weak supply and demand.
Future forecast
The domestic PS market rose strongly in the second half of July. The production load of the aggregation plant is maintained at a low level, and consumer demand is at a low season level. Analysts believe that remote raw material crude oil has surged, and upstream raw materials in the industry chain have generally surged due to its boost. The cost value has quickly rebounded, and PS spot prices are operating relatively strongly under the guidance of favorable costs. However, downstream demand for goods remains resistant to high priced sources, and it is expected that the PS market may enter a stalemate in the short term.

On July 21st, the number of expected arrivals at ports increased, and there were expectations of accumulated inventory at the main port, leading to a weakening of the market price center. The mainstream spot price in East China closed at 9100 yuan/ton, -60 yuan/ton; South China’s spot market remains tight and the price center is strengthening, with the market closing at 8200 yuan/ton,+50 yuan/ton.
Fundamentals:
Supply: Domestic facilities, Shenghong and Hengli have implemented maintenance plans for one set of facilities, while CNOOC Shell and Gulei Petrochemical have restarted; Imported from abroad, there is a shortage of short-term arrivals, and the Strait of Hormuz has been reopened. As of July 20th, the inventory of diethylene glycol ports in East China was 3600 tons, a decrease of 700 tons from the previous statistical cycle. This week (July 21-27), Zhangjiagang’s diethylene glycol is scheduled to arrive at the port with 9600 tons. The downstream demand side has shown lukewarm performance, and combined with the recent shipment situation at the main port, there is a certain expectation of inventory accumulation at the main port in East China.
Demand: The overall load of downstream polyester and unsaturated resin is stable, and there is a significant discount from the southern region to the eastern region. The supply will be supplemented by the southern region. According to statistics, as of July 16th, the average operating rate of unsaturated resin factories in China was 34%, an increase of 2% compared to the previous period. In terms of dock shipments, from July 13th to July 19th, the total amount of shipments from the main ports in East China, Changjiang International and Fubao Warehouse, was 1684 tons, with an average daily shipment of 241 tons. On July 20th, a total of 284 tons were shipped from the two storage areas in Zhangjiagang, an increase of 92 tons compared to the previous day.
On the cost side: The market is concerned that the US Iran conflict may escalate further, supply risk concerns are increasing, and international oil prices are rising. The price of gasoline in the United States has once again surpassed the $4 mark after a month. If the Strait of Hormuz continues to be volatile, Brent crude oil prices may exceed $120 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Market expectations: In the short term, for the supply side of diethylene glycol, domestic units Shenghong and Hengli have implemented maintenance plans, CNOOC Shell and Gulei Petrochemical have restarted, and foreign imports will arrive at the port around the weekend to alleviate short-term shortages. Attention will be paid to the impact of the re closure of the Strait of Hormuz on imported cargo in the later stage; In terms of downstream demand, the overall load of polyester and unsaturated resin is stable, and attention should be paid to the replenishment situation in the downstream. In the short term, due to the high price and low inventory of diethylene glycol in the upstream and downstream, the price is easily affected by centralized procurement of essential needs, and the price may fluctuate widely at high levels. The later supply will have a significant impact on price expectations, and the focus will be on downstream demand, near foreign goods, and sustained supply of imports from the Middle East.

This week (7.13-17), the domestic trend of liquid ammonia was weak, with prices mainly falling. The weekly decline of liquid ammonia in Shandong region was 2.55%. The market operation logic is that high downstream urea inventory dragged down demand, coal prices slightly bottomed out, and regional supply differentiation brought about local price differences. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is between 2100-2300 yuan/ton.
Supply side: Overall loose, regional differentiation, local production reduction provides bottom support
Firstly, the overall operating rate of liquid ammonia in the country is relatively high, with less maintenance of coal production facilities and concentrated resumption of production of pre shutdown facilities. The overall supply of commercial ammonia is sufficient; However, the proportion of self use ammonia in integrated urea enterprises has increased, resulting in a decrease in the export of liquid ammonia and a contraction in market circulation.
Secondly, there is significant regional differentiation: some ammonia companies in Hebei and Shandong have reduced production to maintain prices due to fluctuating cost lines, and their export sources have tightened over the weekend. Manufacturers have proactively raised their prices, but the intensity is not significant, within a hundred yuan; The independent ammonia plants in Shanxi and Henan have sufficient export sources, and their quotations continue to weaken at low levels, leading to a widening regional price difference.

Thirdly, the cost advantage of gas head is limited: domestic natural gas prices are stable, and the cost of gas head ammonia is 1500-1600 yuan/ton, but the proportion of gas head production capacity is low, making it difficult to reverse the overall loose pattern.
Demand side: Continuous high inventory of downstream urea, sluggish terminal procurement
From the demand side, the urea industry continues to operate at high loads, with a production rate of nearly 90%, and the market has entered a period of accumulation. Weak agricultural demand: sporadic procurement of fertilizers downstream, and the impact of rainy weather in the south on fertilizer supplementation and use; The operating rate of downstream industrial compound fertilizers is less than 30%, and the purchase of liquid ammonia raw materials is done in small quantities according to demand, without centralized replenishment. Industrial chain transmission effect: Urea spot prices have continued to decline this week. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 17th, Shandong urea has fallen to the range of 1770 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.73%. The profit of urea factories is compressed, and they actively reduce the purchase of ammonia products from external sources, prioritizing the consumption of self-produced liquid ammonia. The demand for the circulation of ammonia products is significantly reduced, suppressing the upward space for ammonia prices..
Market forecast:
Analysts believe that liquid ammonia may remain stagnant in the short term, and the market is prone to decline but difficult to rise. On the one hand, there has been little change in equipment recently, and the supply pattern remains relatively abundant. On the other hand, there is not much positive news on the demand side, with weak agricultural demand and limited replenishment. On the other hand, high urea inventory has forced ammonia companies to switch to high levels of ammonia. The market purchases according to demand, with industrial essential needs being the main focus. The supply and demand of materials continue to be weak, which restricts the ammonia market from moving towards a positive trend.

On July 14th, due to the impact of a typhoon on domestic loading and unloading in both coastal and Zhejiang provinces, the East China market experienced a shortage of spot goods. The inventory at the main ports in East China once again hit a new historical low, and the liquidity of spot goods in the region tightened. The pricing of diethylene glycol was dominated by the sellers, and the market price center continued to strengthen. The mainstream spot price in East China closed at 9330 yuan/ton,+130 yuan/ton, breaking the price high of the past decade; The South China market is limited by the supply and demand structure within the region, coupled with the background of local equipment restart, and the price discount has reached a new high of nearly 1500 yuan/ton. Cross regional arbitrage has been strongly opened up, and the market closed at 7900 yuan/ton and -100 yuan/ton; CFR China closed at $1103/ton and $-23/ton.
Fundamental analysis:
Supply: Domestic facilities, Shenghong and Hengli have implemented maintenance plans for one set of facilities, while CNOOC Shell and Gulei Petrochemical have restarted; Imported from abroad, there is a shortage of short-term arrivals, and some ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz; Due to the impact of the typhoon, the supply of goods from Jinyang and Zhejiang Petrochemical has been delayed. As of July 13th, the inventory of diethylene glycol ports in East China was 4300 tons, a decrease of 2300 tons from the previous statistical cycle. This week (July 14-20), Zhangjiagang’s diethylene glycol is scheduled to arrive at the port with 7050 tons. The downstream demand side has shown lukewarm performance, and combined with the recent shipment situation at the main port, there is a certain expectation of inventory accumulation at the main port in East China.
Demand: The overall load of downstream polyester and unsaturated resin is stable, and there is a significant discount from the southern region to the eastern region. The supply will be supplemented by the southern region. According to statistics, as of July 9th, the average operating rate of unsaturated resin factories in China was 32%, a decrease of 1% from the previous period. Manufacturers purchase raw materials on demand. According to statistics, from July 10th to July 12th, a total of 903 tons were shipped from the two storage areas in Zhangjiagang, with an average daily shipment of about 301 tons. On July 13th, a total of 232 tons were shipped from the two storage areas in Zhangjiagang, a decrease of 71 tons from the previous day.
Market expectation: Looking ahead, in terms of imports, due to the impact of Typhoon Bawei, the loading and unloading of nearshore cargo has been delayed. July and August are a period of high typhoon weather, which may drag down the pace of import recovery. Pay attention to changes in shipping schedules. In terms of domestic production, Shenghong Petrochemical and Hengli Refining will gradually carry out maintenance within July, while CNOOC Shell and Gulei Petrochemical will restart one after another; The demand is basically stable; Under the background of tight pressure in the main port during the week, the expected price of diethylene glycol remains strong. However, with the gradual replenishment of cargo, the expectation of a high price drop has not changed. However, considering the situation between the United States and Iran, there may be difficulties in connecting supply in the future, and it is difficult to anchor a low price. In the current price background, we are currently considering a cautious bearish trend and focusing on the sustainability of subsequent supply repair.

The domestic ethanol price has dropped to 5619 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.84% in the past three months, a month on month decrease of 0.34%, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.81%. Costs are stabilizing, supply and demand fluctuations are limited, ethanol transactions are running smoothly, main production areas are experiencing fluctuations in equipment, and equipment losses are limited. At the demand side, the end consumer market continues to be under pressure and recovery is weak, and downstream purchasing entities have a strong wait-and-see attitude.
On the cost side, the price of corn in Northeast China is stable but slightly weak, and there has been no improvement in the transaction situation. The price of corn in North China shows a narrow range adjustment and local differentiation within the range. The overall inventory of traders is high, and recently some areas have been affected by rainy weather, resulting in weak corn sales and uneven distribution of grain sources. The price center of the corn market in the sales area is slightly weak. The cost of ethanol is influenced by negative factors.

From the supply side, it is difficult to fundamentally improve the overall situation of oversupply in the ethanol industry in the short term. The utilization rate of ethanol production capacity remains at 46.43%, with a decrease in supply and a decrease in the supply of bio fermented ethanol. The supply of ethanol is affected by favorable factors.
On the demand side and downstream side: From the perspective of demand rhythm, this year’s Mid Autumn Festival and National Day overlap, and the pre holiday stocking cycle is expected to start in early September. At that time, downstream fields such as Baijiu, chemical industry and gasoline blending will enter the stage of phased centralized replenishment, which is expected to form a short-term boost to the ethanol market. The demand for ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.
According to future predictions, the maintenance period in the main production areas has ended, terminal demand has improved, and traditional demand is still in the off-season. Currently, the domestic ethanol market still maintains a situation of oversupply. The ethanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the ethanol market situation may mainly consolidate.

This week, the styrene market experienced a weak decline, with an average price of 7310 yuan/ton on June 29th and 7260 yuan/ton on July 3rd, a decrease of 0.68% during the period and a year-on-year decrease of 8.16%.
On a macro level, international crude oil futures closed higher on July 2nd. The settlement price of the August WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $68.69 per barrel, an increase of $0.11 or 0.2%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September was $71.80 per barrel, an increase of $0.23 or 0.3%.

Cost wise: The price of pure benzene has fluctuated and rebounded. US crude oil inventories continue to decline, and international oil prices have rebounded from low levels. On the supply side of pure benzene, the production of petroleum benzene remains stable, while the import volume has decreased. Downstream styrene, phenol and other facilities have started operating at a low level, with continued weak demand and light spot transactions. Port inventories continue to deplete, providing limited support for pure benzene prices.
Supply and demand side: Due to the expansion of industry losses, some maintenance equipment has been delayed or mainstream manufacturers have voluntarily reduced their load, resulting in a slight decrease in operating rates. The decline in raw material prices has led to some recovery in downstream profits, but terminal orders are weak, downstream 3S production is low, and expectations for remote exports have decreased, resulting in weak short-term demand support.
Styrene external market: On July 2nd, the closing price of styrene in the Asian region rose, with FOB Korea closing price of 945-955 US dollars/ton, and the price remained stable. CFR China closed at $960-970 per ton, up $5 per ton.
Market forecast: Overall, the supply and demand expectations for styrene in July are relatively loose, and port inventories have increased recently, indicating a weak driving force for styrene. However, the driving force of raw material pure benzene has strengthened, and cost support has increased. It is expected that the styrene market will fluctuate in the short term.

After the sharp rise in boric acid prices in March 2026, the price of boric acid has been running at a high level. At present, the quotation range for domestic boric acid traders is between 10400-11400 yuan/ton (the actual transaction price of different brands, specifications, and products is mainly negotiated), and the mainstream shipping price is around 10400 yuan/ton.

In terms of overseas import sources, the current external quotation for import sources is concentrated at 9500-12200 yuan/ton (the actual transaction price of different brands, specifications, and products is mainly negotiated). The average market price of imported boric acid is 11016.67 yuan/ton, which has significantly increased compared to the market average price in early June.
In June, boric acid experienced a structural slight upward trend driven by tight supply and demand. The main reason is the contraction of imported goods and the increase in borax costs.
The core is supported by the reduction of shipments from major overseas producing countries such as Türkiye, the lack of smooth sea transportation, the continuous reduction of port inventory, and the rise in the price of upstream borax to form a cost base. High precision rigid demand such as photovoltaic glass needs a solid base; However, traditional downstream products such as ceramics and ordinary glass are in the off-season, and procurement is cautious. In addition, the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve is pushing up the US dollar, and the overall sentiment of commodities is weak. In the early stage, some traders’ high-level shipments also limited the increase. The market shows a structural differentiation trend of weak ordinary supply and tight high-end supply.

In June, the domestic polyethylene industry weakened across the board, with a narrow range of fluctuations in the first half of the month, a concentrated sharp decline in the middle and late months, and a slight bottoming out rebound at the end of the month. According to data from Shengyishe Spot News, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 8276 yuan/ton on June 1st and 7250 yuan/ton on June 29th, a decrease of 12.40%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 10583 yuan/ton on June 1st and 9050 yuan/ton on June 29th, a decrease of 14.49%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on June 1st was 10145 yuan/ton, and on June 29th it was 9820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.2%.
The centralized resumption of production of domestic petrochemical maintenance facilities has led to an overall increase in production, coupled with the concentration of imported goods entering the port. Market inventory continues to accumulate, and the supply of circulating goods is significantly loose. Traders continue to lower prices to reduce inventory, exacerbating the pressure on spot sales.

The market is in the traditional off-season of demand, and downstream production of thin films has significantly declined. All downstream products of the entire category are being used and purchased without replenishing inventory. The demand for essential goods continues to be weak, and there is insufficient buying support. The concentrated contradiction between supply and demand has led to a sharp drop in prices.
International crude oil prices have fluctuated and weakened, and the support for petrochemical production costs continues to weaken. Manufacturers have continuously lowered their ex factory prices, and the continued weakening of the cost side has amplified the market’s downward space; The slight rebound of crude oil at the end of the month has driven up spot prices.
The short-term loose supply and demand pattern of polyethylene is difficult to quickly reverse, and downstream demand has not yet substantially rebounded, with limited room for price rebound.