In June, the domestic polyethylene industry weakened across the board, with a narrow range of fluctuations in the first half of the month, a concentrated sharp decline in the middle and late months, and a slight bottoming out rebound at the end of the month. According to data from Shengyishe Spot News, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 8276 yuan/ton on June 1st and 7250 yuan/ton on June 29th, a decrease of 12.40%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 10583 yuan/ton on June 1st and 9050 yuan/ton on June 29th, a decrease of 14.49%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on June 1st was 10145 yuan/ton, and on June 29th it was 9820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.2%.
The centralized resumption of production of domestic petrochemical maintenance facilities has led to an overall increase in production, coupled with the concentration of imported goods entering the port. Market inventory continues to accumulate, and the supply of circulating goods is significantly loose. Traders continue to lower prices to reduce inventory, exacerbating the pressure on spot sales.

The market is in the traditional off-season of demand, and downstream production of thin films has significantly declined. All downstream products of the entire category are being used and purchased without replenishing inventory. The demand for essential goods continues to be weak, and there is insufficient buying support. The concentrated contradiction between supply and demand has led to a sharp drop in prices.
International crude oil prices have fluctuated and weakened, and the support for petrochemical production costs continues to weaken. Manufacturers have continuously lowered their ex factory prices, and the continued weakening of the cost side has amplified the market’s downward space; The slight rebound of crude oil at the end of the month has driven up spot prices.
The short-term loose supply and demand pattern of polyethylene is difficult to quickly reverse, and downstream demand has not yet substantially rebounded, with limited room for price rebound.

In June 2026, the domestic toluene market as a whole showed a volatile downward trend. Looking at the domestic toluene market situation throughout June, the market as a whole was in an operating environment dominated by negative factors, and the overall market trend showed a volatile downward trend. The price center continued to shift downwards throughout the month. The market trend this month is mainly driven by three core factors: weak costs, sufficient supply, and weak demand. The decline in upstream raw material prices continues to weaken the bottom support of the market, and the continuous increase in on-site supply has led to increasing pressure on the supply side. Coupled with the continuous drag of traditional off-season demand downstream, the market lacks upward driving force under the combination of multiple negative factors. According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic market price of toluene was 6581 yuan/ton on June 1st, and fell to 5727.67 yuan/ton on June 29th, with a cumulative price reduction of 12.97% during the period.

Cost aspect:
In June, the overall support for the cost of toluene in China was insufficient, and the trend continued to be weak. The international crude oil market fluctuated and fell within the month, accompanied by a synchronous decline in Asian naphtha prices. The decline in raw material prices greatly reduced the production pressure on refining enterprises. The overall production cost of toluene decreased compared to the previous month, and the industry’s production profit margin remained stable. At the cost level, there was a lack of strong incentives to drive market prices upwards, making it difficult to effectively support the spot market. As of June 26th, the settlement price of the August contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $69.23 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September is $72.60 per barrel.
Supply side:
This month, major refining and aromatic hydrocarbon production facilities in China have been operating smoothly, with overall operating conditions remaining relatively high. The shipment volume of domestically produced toluene sources in the field has remained stable. At the same time, the normal arrival and storage of imported goods from foreign trade has further enriched the supply of goods in various markets. The inventory of goods in mainstream storage areas is gradually increasing, and the market circulation of goods is very sufficient. The overall market supply of goods is relatively loose, which has suppressed the toluene market.
Demand side:
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the mainstream factory price was around 8800-8900 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and dropped to around 7500-7600 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The downstream PTA and polyester terminals were already in the off-season, and coupled with the continuous weakening of PX prices, the purchasing mentality became more cautious, and the indirect demand for toluene also weakened, making it difficult for the overall demand side to improve.
International market: The overall decline in Asian PX trading in June was significant, with FOB South Korea at $1114-1116/ton and CFR China at $1135-1137/ton at the beginning of the month. However, due to the weakening of crude oil in the middle of the month, FOB South Korea fell to $959-961/ton and CFR China at $980-982/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decline of over $150/ton.
In June, we entered the off-season for traditional chemical consumption, coupled with hot and rainy weather in many places. The production and operation of downstream solvent industries such as coatings, inks, and adhesives slowed down, and the actual demand for materials significantly decreased. In addition, procurement in related fields such as gasoline blending and fine chemicals is also relatively flat. Downstream manufacturers generally purchase as much as they need, and dare not stock up in large quantities. The market is mostly filled with small amounts of essential goods, and the overall trading atmosphere is quiet, with average performance in actual terminal demand.

Market forecast:
Overall, in June, the toluene market was affected by weakened costs, abundant supply, sluggish terminal demand, and a downward trend in the PX market in the industrial chain. The market fundamentals were weak, and the trading atmosphere on the exchange was flat. Merchants mainly operated with caution and observation. Based on the current market situation and comprehensive judgment, it is expected that the domestic toluene market will continue to maintain a weak consolidation pattern in July, and it is difficult for the market to usher in a significant upward trend. In the short term, there is no sign of strength in crude oil and naphtha, and the cost side still lacks effective support. Domestic production enterprises have stable equipment operation, and the pattern of loose market supply is difficult to change. In addition, the off-season of various downstream industries has not yet ended, and the overall market situation of the aromatic hydrocarbon industry chain is still under pressure. The weak supply and demand situation in the market will continue, and prices are likely to remain low with slight fluctuations. The future market trend will focus on the fluctuation of international crude oil prices and the actual situation of downstream terminal industries starting to recover.

In June, the price of adipic acid fell weakly, leading to a decline in the market. On June 1st, the average market price of adipic acid was 8866 yuan/ton, and on June 25th, the average market price of adipic acid was 7983 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.96% in price.

The main factors affecting the rise and fall of adipic acid market in June
On the supply side, the industry’s operating rate remained at a relatively low level in June, with an operating rate of around 63%. The tightening of the supply side has provided some bottom support for prices, but it cannot reverse the price decline in the context of extremely weak demand.
Demand side: The traditional off-season for chemical products has arrived, and downstream industries such as pulp and shoe sole raw materials have seen a decrease in operating load. Downstream companies generally adopt a cautious strategy of “replenishing inventory as needed”, with low purchasing willingness, resulting in slow depletion of social inventory and difficulty in trading high priced goods.
On the cost side: As we enter June, the international crude oil price center has slightly shifted downwards, and the cost support of pure benzene for adipic acid has significantly weakened compared to the first quarter. This makes it difficult for the price of adipic acid to replicate the cost driven unilateral upward trend in March.
In summary, the predicted results of supply and demand are that cost support will weaken, supply pressure will be moderate, and demand will weaken. In early July, the adipic acid market may stabilize and fluctuate upwards. From a technical perspective, it can be seen that the adipic acid market continued to decline in June and is already at a low level. Therefore, in early July, the overall fluctuation of the adipic acid market was dominant, with an expected price between 8000 yuan/ton and 9000 yuan/ton.

As of the 25th, the price of ethyl acetate was 5666.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton or 1.73% compared to the price of 5766.67 yuan/ton on June 18th. The supply of ethyl acetate has increased, downstream demand is sluggish, and the mentality of industry players is bearish, resulting in a weak downward trend in the price of ethyl acetate.
On the supply side, the early maintenance equipment for ethyl acetate has been restored, and the operating rate has significantly increased. The market supply is sufficient, and the pressure on enterprises to ship has increased; In terms of demand, the terminal market transactions are average, with downstream market entry being the main demand. The consumption of ethyl acetate is average, and industry players have a bearish attitude; Upstream acetic acid prices are running strongly, with decent cost support, but overall the push up for ethyl ester prices is limited, and market demand is weak. In order to promote shipments, enterprises continue to shift the focus of ethyl acetate prices downwards.
In the future, the supply of ethyl acetate in the market is relatively strong, while downstream demand is weak. Although costs are supported, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market is suppressed, and price rebound is limited. Market demand dominates, and it is expected that the short-term market for ethyl acetate will be weak and stable. Specific attention should be paid to the raw material market and downstream follow-up situation in the future.

Recently, lithium carbonate has shown a roller coaster trend, with prices rising from 160000 yuan/ton on June 7th to 172000 yuan/ton on June 12th, and then falling to 166000 yuan/ton this weekend.

Demand side: Downstream demand continues to thrive, providing solid support
Statistics show that the production schedule of top battery companies increased by 5-10% month on month in July. The shipment volume of battery cell factories with a high proportion of energy storage business in the second quarter increased by 30% compared to the first quarter. The continuous prosperity of downstream terminal demand for new energy vehicles and energy storage markets provides a solid demand base for lithium prices.
Supply side: superposition of multiple disturbances at home and abroad
Domestically: On June 18th, market news reported that the supporting annual production of 40000 tons of lithium carbonate project for the Jijiaoshan lithium mine in Linwu, Hunan Province, by Dazhong Mining was officially ignited. Qinghai Salt Lake has entered a period of abundant water, with seasonal increases in production. The pre-approval and site selection opinion letter for the Ningde Times Jianxiawo Lithium Mine project has been cancelled. Both negative and positive factors coexist.
Overseas: Industry calculations show that the arrival of lithium mines in Zimbabwe in July will return to normal levels, with a monthly supply of 20000 to 25000 tons, becoming the most important source of domestic lithium raw material growth in the third quarter. Mali and the Democratic Republic of Congo, lithium rich countries, continue to experience unrest and terrorist attacks, posing potential risks.
Policy side: Key mineral legislation landing, reshaping the long-term pricing logic of lithium resources
On June 15th, the Implementation Regulations of the Mineral Resources Law of the People’s Republic of China officially came into effect, becoming the core policy catalyst for the sharp rise in the rare metal sector and the expected increase in lithium prices in this round. This regulation, for the first time in the form of administrative regulations, explicitly includes a total of 36 types of minerals such as lithium, rare earths, cobalt, nickel, etc. in the national strategic mineral resources catalog. The emergency supply guarantee system for lithium resources is further improved, and the purely market-oriented pricing logic for supply and demand is gradually weakening.
Market forecast:
The upward signal is about to appear, and lithium carbonate may rebound and rise. Combined with the current volatile situation, it is expected to fluctuate and rise in the short term. Specific changes in market supply and demand still need to be monitored.

In the first half of the month, the price of propylene glycol remained stable at the beginning and end, showing a wide V-shaped oscillation of “first falling, sideways, rebounding, and falling back”, without a unilateral trend. As of June 15th, the average production price of propylene glycol in Shandong region was 9833 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month.

Core driving factors
Cost side traction
Epoxy propane first fell, then rose, and then fell back, completely dominating the trend of propylene glycol band. However, the traditional off-season demand downstream limited the upward space of propylene glycol. The highest increase of epoxy propane (pink line) reached 3.29%, while the maximum increase of propylene glycol was only 0.32%, showing a differentiation pattern of “raw material surge, small follow-up increase of finished products”.
Supply side support
In June, multiple sets of equipment underwent rotational inspections, resulting in a significant decrease of nearly 23 percentage points in operating rates. The market’s circulation of spot goods decreased, effectively stabilizing prices and preventing a deep decline.
Demand side ceiling
Unsaturated polyester resin (UPR) and polyether polyols have entered the summer off-season, and under high temperatures, end product companies have reduced their burden. Purchasing has only maintained rigid small orders, without centralized replenishment actions, and new orders have been light in transactions; Lithium battery electrolyte solvents, pharmaceutical/cosmetic grade propylene glycol have stable long-term orders, electronic grade high-purity sources are in short supply, and quotations have been higher than industrial grade for a long time to hedge against some off-season negative factors; Export orders remain stable, easing domestic spot pressure.
Market forecast:
At present, the industry’s equipment maintenance is ongoing, production is low, factory inventory is not under pressure, the rise of raw material epoxy propane is slowing down, and there is no centralized replenishment downstream. It is expected that propylene glycol will continue to fluctuate narrowly. Attention should be paid to the restart of the maintenance device.

Since 2026, the overall focus of the natural rubber market has steadily shifted upwards, presenting a game pattern of “weak reality, strong expectations”. As of June 12th, the price of natural rubber in Shengyi Society was 17566 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.50% within the year and 30.53% year-on-year. The current supply-demand structure continues to optimize, coupled with favorable weather cycles, and there is still upward momentum in the price of rubber in the future, but in the short term, it will mainly accumulate momentum through high-level fluctuations. ​
Recently, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States officially confirmed the existence of the El Ni ñ o phenomenon. NOAA’s announcement states that there is a 63% probability that this phenomenon will sharply intensify during the late autumn to early winter period of this year. The risk of severe drought weather is prominent, and the market is expected to suppress the efficiency of rubber cutting in Southeast Asian production areas, providing strong speculation and fundamental support for rubber prices in the second half of the year. At present, the prices of raw materials in Thailand remain high, and the supply of raw materials in the market is tight. As of June 12th, the price of tobacco chips produced in Thailand was 95.00 baht/kg, a synchronous increase of 38.69% compared to the previous year; Glue price is 88.50 Thai baht/kg, up 55.95% year-on-year; The price of cup glue was reported at 74.80 Thai baht/kg, a year-on-year increase of 34.77%.

The resilience of the demand side is sufficient, and the combination of substitution effects forms favorable support. Domestic tire companies maintain stable production, while synthetic rubber prices remain high, compressing the price difference between the two and prompting downstream enterprises to increase the proportion of natural rubber usage, further boosting natural rubber consumption demand. As of June 10th, the construction of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has reached around 70%; The construction of all steel tires by tire companies in Shandong region has reached about 6.80%. ​
The slight increase in inventory has a certain negative impact on the natural rubber market in the short term. As of June 7, 2026, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 696800 tons, an increase of 0.88% month on month. ​
Market forecast:
From a technical perspective: 1. Price position indicators show that the current positions on 10/20/30 are all low, and the “10 day oversold” signal was triggered on June 8, indicating a clear short-term weakness; However, on the 60/90 day, it remained at a medium high and annual high level, and the medium-term upward trend has not completely broken. 2. The moving average indicator shows that the current price has fallen below the 10 day moving average and is approaching the 20 day moving average. The short-term moving average has turned downward, forming pressure, while the medium-term moving average remains upward. ​
From a fundamental perspective, Southeast Asian production areas will enter the traditional peak production season from June to July. The concentrated launch of new rubber will bring about an increase in supply. Coupled with the temporary off-season in the tire industry, the pace of rubber price increases will slow down, and it is likely to maintain a wide range of fluctuations in the short term. In the medium to long term, with the gradual realization of the El Ni ñ o impact from August to December and the implementation of the production reduction effect, the price of rubber is expected to break through the previous high point. The long-term tight supply-demand balance pattern continues, with rubber prices prone to rise but difficult to fall, and the central market continuing to move upward.

The price of ethylene oxide will decrease in June 2026. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of June 5th, the average market price of epoxyethane in China was 6800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.53% from the market average price of 7600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (6.1).
On June 5, 2026, the mainstream market ex factory listing prices for ethylene oxide in various regions of China were as follows: the ethylene oxide market in East China was priced at 6800 yuan/ton to the outside world; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the South China market is 6700-6800 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in North China is 6650 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the Central China region is 6800-7600 yuan/ton.
Analysis of the reasons for the significant drop in the price of ethylene oxide in June 2026
The significant drop in the price of ethylene oxide in early June 2026 is driven by five logical resonances: cost collapse, supply recovery, off-season demand collapse, high price destocking in the early stage, and macro sentiment.
1、 Cost side: High premium of crude oil+ethylene falls, production cost hard support collapses
70% of the cost of epoxyethane raw materials comes from ethylene, which anchors international crude oil and the Northeast Asian market. The source of this round of sharp decline is the complete clearance of the Middle East geopolitical premium that rose in March. In late May, the United States and Iran reached a framework agreement, and the Middle East conflict cooled down. Brent crude oil quickly fell from $112 per barrel to the range of $85-90 per barrel, ending geopolitical speculation. Crude oil led to a weakening of naphtha and ethane across the board; The CFR ethylene in Northeast Asia fell from $1050/ton in March to $720-750/ton in June, and domestic ethylene spot prices fell from 7700 yuan/ton to around 6200 yuan/ton. The production cost of EO decreased by 1100-1300 yuan per ton, and production enterprises had no cost incentive to raise prices, resulting in a passive decline in listed prices; The long-term low cost of ethane in the United States, coupled with the increasing export volume of ethylene and EO, and the impact of imported arbitrage sources on domestic spot pricing limits, further suppress domestic quotations.
2、 Supply side: Maintenance and partial resumption of production+loose supply in non maintenance areas, overall supply shifting from tight to loose
In June, ethylene oxide showed a pattern of partial maintenance and overall relaxation, offsetting the positive effect of reduced volume brought by maintenance, resulting in an increase in spot circulation and inventory accumulation. The main EO units that underwent centralized maintenance in May resumed production in early June, with a significant increase in supply from the core production areas in East China; Although some individual devices have entered maintenance, the increase in resuming production is greater than the decrease in maintenance, and the overall industry production has increased from 48% in May to around 70% in June; Northwest and North China maintain high loads of EO equipment without maintenance and refining facilities, while export sources continue to move southward to supplement the markets of East and South China. Regional price differences have narrowed, and the overall market supply has become loose; During the high price period from March to April, factory inventory was concentrated and realized in June. Private large companies such as Sinopec and PetroChina continued to lower their factory listing and offer discounts on shipments, leading to a continuous decline in market quotes.
3、 On the demand side, traditional downstream industries have entered a seasonal off-season, and terminal demand has weakened sharply

70% of the downstream EO is used for ethylene glycol, polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomers, and non-ionic surfactants. In June, multiple seasonality and industrial negative factors overlapped, resulting in a decline in downstream production depth and procurement of only small orders as needed, without centralized replenishment. The specific situation is as follows:
1. Polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer (downstream of maximum rigid demand)
The new construction and infrastructure landing of terminal real estate fell short of expectations, and the operating rate of domestic mixed use enterprises decreased by 15% month on month; Combined with the rainy season in the south in June, the suspension of the national middle and high school entrance exams, and the busy farming season in the north, large-scale construction sites have been shut down, and the water reducing agent factory has only started operating by 25.5% (month on month -3.27 pct). The purchase volume of raw material EO has decreased by more than 30% year-on-year.
2. Non ionic surfactants (daily chemical, textile)
The off-season for textiles and daily chemical products has entered the traditional consumption off-season, and the operating rate of surface active factories has dropped to 42.5%. The factories strictly control the inventory of raw materials, avoid the risk of further price decline, observe price pressure, purchase in batches, and the large-scale procurement has basically stagnated.
3. Weakening of ethylene glycol matching
During the off-season for polyester and synthetic fibers, the spot price of ethylene glycol decreased synchronously. The profit of the integrated plant’s self-produced EO was reduced by switching to ethylene glycol, and the sales of EO increased, further increasing the circulation of commodity EO.
4. Buy upstream instead of downstream
The price continues to decline in a cycle, and the entire industry chain is holding onto the currency to observe. Downstream companies are avoiding losses from hoarding goods and are purchasing as needed. The market lacks speculative stocking demand to support the bottom.
4、 The pricing logic of the market has reversed in the early stage, with profit taking orders concentrated and leaving the market
The bullish speculative funds generated by geopolitical conflicts in March and April have gradually withdrawn in May, and pessimistic expectations have spread in June. Traders actively reduced prices and sold spot goods, forming a negative cycle of price reduction → wait-and-see → further price reduction; In the early high price stage, the market was bullish and consistent. After the double negative impact of cost and demand in June, the industry switched directly from “raising prices and being reluctant to sell” to “lowering prices and reducing inventory”. Leading refineries were the first to adjust prices, while small and medium-sized manufacturers passively followed suit.
5、 Macro and industry medium – to long-term overcapacity suppresses rebound space
In recent years, domestic EO has continued to invest in integrated refining and chemical supporting production capacity (Hengli, Shenghong, and Zhejiang Petrochemical have successively implemented supporting production capacity), leading to the normalization of overcapacity in the industry. The production capacity consumption ratio is close to 190%, and the demand increment cannot keep up with the production capacity investment. Prices lack medium – and long-term fundamental support, and the off-season bearish sentiment has amplified the magnitude of the correction.
Future forecast
At present, the rise in the ethylene oxide market is due to geopolitical factors, cost factors, and short-term supply tightening, while the decline is due to geopolitical factors, cost collapse, off-season demand collapse, and supply recovery; The June pullback is the valuation return of the skyrocketing market from March to April. The triple bearish trend of cost breaking first, demand landing in the off-season, and supply shifting from tight to loose is the essence of this deep decline. Short term fluctuations are expected to be mainly weak.

As of May 31, 2026, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 6933 yuan/ton, a decrease of 733 yuan or 9.57% from May 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 7666 yuan/ton).

1、 Price Trend Review
In May, the n-butanol market in Shandong Province initially rose slightly, but the momentum of the upward trend was insufficient. The market opened up a unilateral downward trend, and the n-butanol market price continued to decline, with the downward trend continuing to widen. As of May 31, the n-butanol market price in Shandong Province was around 6900-7100 yuan/ton.
2、 Analysis of Core Influencing Factors
Mismatch between supply and demand, strong supply and weak demand
At the beginning of May, the overall supply performance of the n-butanol market was stable, and the supply and demand transmission was still acceptable. With the concentrated resumption of production of some maintenance units in the early stage, the supply of n-butanol in the market gradually increased. However, downstream demand markets were slow to digest the increase in supply, cautious in raw material procurement, and had a weak stocking sentiment. The supply and demand transmission was hindered, and the market formed a situation of strong supply and weak demand.
Weakened cost support: In May, the price of raw material propylene fell synchronously, and the production cost support for n-butanol loosened. As a result, the price of n-butanol was lowered, further exacerbating the downward trend.
Market sentiment: Downstream companies are generally watching from the sidelines, with a decrease in large-scale inventory replenishment behavior. The market lacks effective demand support, and prices are prone to falling but difficult to rise.
3、 Future forecast
In the short term, the pattern of loose supply and demand in the n-butanol market is still difficult to quickly reverse, and prices are likely to remain weak. In the future, more attention should be paid to the changes in the operating rate of n-butanol plants, as well as the support on the cost side and the recovery of downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

On May 29th, the average market price of domestic grade ammonium sulfate was 1666 yuan/ton, and on May 1st, the average market price of domestic grade ammonium sulfate was 1910 yuan/ton. This month, the market price of domestic grade ammonium sulfate fell by 12.74%.
2、 Market analysis
The price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market has dropped significantly this month. The coking level operating rate has been adjusted narrowly, and the operating rate of the internal level has decreased. In the first half of this month, the market price of ammonium sulfate increased slightly. In the second half of this month, the price of ammonium sulfate began to decline. There is a high inventory in the market, and the supply of ammonium sulfate exceeds demand. Due to the previous consecutive price increases and cautious downstream procurement, the market price of ammonium sulfate has dropped significantly. As of May 29th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 1050 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 1650-1680 yuan/ton.
According to the weekly K-bar chart from March 2, 2026 to May 18, 2026, it can be seen that the price of ammonium sulfate in China fluctuated during the cycle. The domestic price of ammonium sulfate fell significantly in May, with the largest drop being 6.02% in the week of May 18th.
3、 Future forecast
An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the recent downward trend in domestic ammonium sulfate prices is the main reason. At present, terminal demand is weak, and the market transaction atmosphere is becoming less intense. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market price will continue to weaken and decline in the short term.